2025-07-15 19:03

Canadian dollar falls 0.1% against the greenback Decline than for other G10 currencies Annual inflation rate increases to 1.9% 10-year yield rises to one-year high TORONTO, July 15 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar edged lower against its U.S. counterpart on Tuesday, but the loonie declined less than the other Group of 10 currencies as domestic inflation data reduced expectations for Bank of Canada interest rate cuts. The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.3715 per U.S. dollar, or 72.91 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.3672 to 1.3729. Sign up here. Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 1.9% in June from 1.7% in May, meeting analysts' expectations, while CPI-median, one of the core measures of inflation closely tracked by the BoC, rose to 3.1% from 3%. "Today's uptick in core inflation coupled with the upside surprise in June's labor report means the BoC is highly unlikely to cut in July," analysts at BofA Global Research, including Carlos Capistran, said in a note. Investors see a 5% chance the BoC cuts its benchmark interest rate from the current setting of 2.75% at the next policy announcement on July 30, down from a 14% chance before the consumer price index report, overnight index swap data showed. Chances of a cut had been seen at 27% before data on Friday that showed Canada's economy adding 83,100 jobs in June. U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in five months in June amid higher costs for some goods, suggesting tariffs were starting to have an impact on inflation and potentially keeping the Federal Reserve on the sidelines until September. The U.S. dollar (.DXY) , opens new tab rose for a seventh straight day against a basket of major currencies, while the price of oil was trading 0.7% lower at $66.54 a barrel as concerns eased about an immediate supply disruption. Oil is one of Canada's major exports. The Canadian 10-year yield rose 9.6 basis points to 3.615%, its highest level since July last year. The gap between the 10-year yield and its U.S. equivalent narrowed by 3.6 basis points to about 87 basis points in favor of the U.S. note, which is the smallest gap in nine months. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadian-dollar-falls-slightly-cpi-data-crimps-rate-cut-bets-2025-07-15/

2025-07-15 18:41

NEW YORK, July 15 (Reuters) - Citigroup (C.N) , opens new tab may issue its own stablecoin in an effort to facilitate digital payments, the bank's CEO, Jane Fraser, told analysts on a post-earnings conference call on Tuesday. "We are looking at the issuance of a Citi stablecoin, but probably most importantly is the tokenized deposit space, where we're very active," she said. "This is a good opportunity for us." Sign up here. The third largest U.S. lender is also exploring reserve management for stablecoins and providing custody solutions for crypto assets, Fraser said. Citigroup's shares briefly touched their highest level since the 2008 financial crisis after the bank reported second-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates and said it plans to buy back at least $4 billion in stock. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/citigroup-considers-issuing-its-own-stablecoin-ceo-says-2025-07-15/

2025-07-15 17:33

July 15 (Reuters) - The outlook for European corporate health has deteriorated, the latest earnings forecasts showed on Tuesday, as U.S. President Donald Trump's most recent tariff statements created further uncertainty for businesses. European companies are expected to report a drop of 0.7% year-on-year in second-quarter earnings, on average, according to LSEG I/B/E/S data, below the 0.2% decrease analysts had expected a week ago. Sign up here. This earnings season is the first to expose the impact of U.S. President Trump's tariff-fueled trade war on corporate health. Trump's tariff policies have changed frequently since April, the most common start of the second fiscal quarter. Some were imposed while others were proposed and then delayed. From last week, consensus for revenue forecasts meanwhile remained the same, with analysts expecting a 3.0% decrease, compared with a 3.0% drop expected before. Last week, after weeks of negotiations, President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union starting on August 1, though EU ministers have voiced their confidence in still closing a deal before the deadline. The latest estimates compare with a 3.0% increase in earnings and a 0.8% drop in revenues a year ago, the data showed. This would be the worst quarterly performance in more than a year. Second-quarter results from Novartis (NOVN.S) , opens new tab and Volvo Cars (VOLCARb.ST) , opens new tab expected later this week, might shed more light on how European companies are faring at the start of this reporting quarter. The biggest second-quarter earnings winners are expected to be the Irish and Polish companies in the Europe-wide STOXX 600 stock index, with average growth of 88.6% and 67.3%, respectively. Norwegian and Austrian companies, meanwhile, are expected to see earnings fall 19.4% and 8.2%, respectively. As of Tuesday's close, the STOXX 600 was up about 7.4% year to date. https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/european-second-quarter-corporate-profits-expected-fall-07-2025-07-15/

2025-07-15 16:22

JPMorgan raises 2025 net interest income forecast to $95.5 billion Trading revenue up 15%, investment banking fees rise 7% IPO pipeline improving but concerns remain, CFO says Acquisitions have a high bar, CFO says Headcount drops by more than 1,300 employees July 15 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) , opens new tab raised its net interest income forecast for 2025 after strong results in investment banking and trading helped it surpass profit expectations for the second quarter. "The U.S. economy remained resilient," CEO Jamie Dimon said. "The finalization of tax reform and potential deregulation are positive for the economic outlook." Sign up here. Still, he expressed caution about "significant risks" from tariffs and trade uncertainty, worsening geopolitical conditions, high fiscal deficits, and elevated asset prices. Dimon, 69, who has run the largest U.S. lender for more than 19 years, is one of the most prominent voices on Wall Street. In contrast to rival bank CEOs who have given rosier assessments of the economy, Dimon has been more downbeat and cautious. The bank now expects about $95.5 billion of NII, or the difference between what it earns on loans and pays on deposits, compared with an earlier estimate of nearly $94.5 billion. Market activity surged as investors seized opportunities and hedged risks in response to shifting U.S. tariff policies. The turmoil propelled JPMorgan's trading revenue 15% higher to $8.9 billion, driven by gains in both fixed income and equities. Investment banking fees also rose 7% to $2.5 billion, underpinned by a rise in mergers and acquisitions and debt underwriting. Both trading and investment banking performed better than management's earlier guidance. While concerns remain, the pipeline for initial public offerings was picking up, CFO Jeremy Barnum said. A well-capitalized balance sheet helped JPMorgan grow revenue in multiple segments, said Brian Mulberry, senior client portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, adding that the higher NII forecast was an "impressive flex." CONSUMER STRENGTH Despite worries about tariff-related pressure on households, JPMorgan noted continued signs of consumer resilience. "The consumer basically seems to be fine," Barnum said. "You see a little bit more stress in the lower income bands. But that's always true. Nothing there is out of line with our expectations." The bank set aside $2.85 billion in provision for credit losses, compared with $3.05 billion a year earlier. Excluding one-off costs, the lender earned $4.96 per share, compared with the $4.48 per share that analysts were expecting, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. Shares were down 0.6%. POLICY CLOUDS OUTLOOK Investors are closely scrutinizing banks' results and their executives' commentary this quarter to assess the impact of tariffs and the tax and spending bill signed into law by President Donald Trump this month. The bill is estimated to add more than $3 trillion to U.S. debt over the next decade, sparking backlash from some Republicans and onetime Trump allies such as Elon Musk, who have raised concerns about fiscal irresponsibility. However, while uncertainty has clouded the outlook, there were bright spots for lenders during the second quarter. JPMorgan was among 22 large banks that aced the Federal Reserve's stress tests, enabling it to boost its quarterly dividend and announce $50 billion in stock buybacks. The Fed also advanced a proposal to overhaul the "enhanced supplementary leverage ratio," which could lower the capital large global banks such as JPMorgan must hold against relatively low-risk assets. INORGANIC GROWTH OPPORTUNITIES JPMorgan's strong capital base leaves room for mergers and acquisitions, and management once again flagged inorganic growth opportunities, but also warned the bar is high and it is not looking to buy into hot sectors such as private credit or large language models. "Acquisitions have a high bar, both financially, strategically, and in some cases, culturally," Barnum said. "But we wouldn't be doing our jobs if we weren't thinking about it." While JPMorgan does not necessarily need M&A in any particular sector to boost growth, the bank could still be on the lookout in areas such as technology. "If there are areas in the technology side that would further their lead in terms of the efficiency of the business or capabilities that they could offer, from a trading perspective to their corporate clientele, it would be expected that they would pursue those," said Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager of equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, which owns JPMorgan stock. Meanwhile, Dimon said the private credit market may have peaked after its dramatic growth in the last few years. The CEO, who has been a vocal skeptic of bitcoin, said the bank is going to be involved in stablecoins, without giving details. Stablecoins, a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a constant value, usually pegged to a fiat currency such as the U.S. dollar, are commonly used by crypto traders to move funds between tokens. Trump has promised to be the "crypto president," popularizing its mainstream use in the U.S. JPMorgan's headcount fell by more than 1,300 employees to 317,160, but the bank's workforce remains the largest among its peers after a rapid expansion in recent quarters. JPMorgan has said it expects it to be flat in 2025. Overall profit dropped 17% in the second quarter, but the comparison was skewed because of a nearly $8-billion one-off gain it had recorded on a share exchange agreement with Visa (V.N) , opens new tab last year. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgans-profit-slips-prior-year-accounting-gain-skews-comparison-2025-07-15/

2025-07-15 13:45

June consumer price index up by 0.1% on month-on-month basis Rise in prices led by durable goods, clothing, footwear Core measures of inflation continue to stay at or above 3% Shelter prices rise by below 3% for first time in four years OTTAWA, July 15 (Reuters) - Canada's annual inflation rate rose to 1.9% in June, meeting analysts' expectations, as increases in the price of automobiles, clothing and footwear pushed the index higher, data showed on Tuesday. The consumer price index was at 1.7% in the prior month. Sign up here. Statistics Canada said on a monthly basis the CPI increased 0.1%, matching analysts' forecasts. CPI has been under 2%, or the mid-point of the Bank of Canada's inflation target range, for three consecutive months. This is the last major economic indicator to be released before the Bank of Canada's rates decision later this month. The slight rise in prices across many segments, along with a strong jobs number last week, is likely to take away any incentive to cut interest rates, economists said. Money markets were betting on the odds for a rate cut at just over 10% after the data was released . The central bank will announce its monetary policy decision on July 30. "It's just the latest piece of evidence to keep the Bank of Canada on hold after 83,000 jobs (added in June) and no clarity on how fiscal policy and trade policy will evolve," said Derek Holt, vice president of Capital Market Economics at ScotiabankC. The Canadian dollar was trading stronger by 0.19% to 1.3677 against the U.S. dollar, or 73.12 U.S. cents. Yields on the government's two-year bonds were down 0.6 basis points to 2.761%. The rise in prices in June was primarily led by a 2.7% jump in durable goods such as automobiles and furniture, following a 2% rise in May on a year-on-year basis, StatsCan said. Passenger vehicle prices rose 4.1% on an annual basis in June following a 3.2% increase in May, the agency added. Inflation was further boosted by a rise in the price of clothing and footwear, which accelerated 2% annually in June after a modest 0.5% rise in May, due in part to uncertainty surrounding international trade, Statistics Canada said. U.S. consumer prices also picked up in June, likely marking the start of a long-anticipated tariff-induced increase in inflation. Canadian gasoline prices are expected to be depressed for the next 10 months after the government scrapped the consumer carbon levy on gasoline in April. On a year-over-year basis gasoline prices fell by 13.4% in June from 15.5% in May. Economists and the central bank have focused on the core measures of inflation, which excludes the impact of tax measures, to gauge price trends. One of the core measures of inflation, the CPI-median, or the centermost component of the CPI basket, edged up to 3.1% in June from 3% in the prior month. The other core measure CPI-trim, which excludes the most extreme price changes, was unchanged in June at 3% from May, StatsCan said. "The fact that core inflation is pretty much locked in at around 3% is a bit of an issue for Bank of Canada rate cut prospects," said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets. Shelter prices, which account for up to 30% of the CPI basket weight and comprises mortgage and rent, rose by 2.9%, the first drop below 3% in more than four years. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-annual-inflation-rate-june-slightly-up-19-2025-07-15/

2025-07-15 12:50

July 15 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will likely be able to start cutting short-term borrowing costs by September, traders continued to bet on Tuesday, after a government report showed a widely expected increase in consumer prices last month. The market-priced probability of a Fed interest-rate cut by September remained around 60% after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the consumer price index rose 2.7% in June from a year earlier, and underlying inflation was up 2.9%. Sign up here. Traders continue to see just a 5% chance of a rate cut this month, with Fed policymakers mostly saying they want to see more data before reducing rates. https://www.reuters.com/business/traders-stick-bets-september-fed-rate-cut-after-inflation-report-2025-07-15/