2025-07-15 04:32
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rocky Swift With markets largely inured to an ever-changing tariff picture, the spotlight turns to Wall Street earnings for clues on how the trade drama is affecting corporate bottom lines. Sign up here. JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) , opens new tab, Wells Fargo (WFC.N) , opens new tab and Citigroup (C.N) , opens new tab are among heavyweights reporting second-quarter results today. Profits for S&P 500 companies in the second quarter are expected to rise 5.8%, according to LSEG data, down from a forecast of 10.2% on April 1, before U.S. President Donald Trump launched his trade war. Investors are also waiting for U.S. consumer price data for June, looking for any sign of price pressure from tariffs or hints on policy moves by the Federal Reserve. But the main Fed move Trump is gunning for is an early exit by Chairman Jerome Powell, who hasn't given in to the president's wish for "rocket fuel" rate cuts. Bond markets are on edge about whether an investigation into renovations of the central bank's headquarters will serve as fodder to oust Powell. Asian shares and Nasdaq futures got a bounce after Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab, the $4 trillion behemoth at the forefront of the artificial intelligence investment boom, said it will resume sales of its H20 chips to China. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will attend the opening ceremony of China's international supply chain expo on Wednesday, Chinese state TV said on Tuesday. Stock futures in Europe and the broader U.S. market pointed to slight gains at their openings. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday: - Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment for July - Euro zone industrial production data for May - U.S. core consumer price index (CPI) for June - Canada CPI, housing starts for June - U.S. earnings: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, BlackRock (BLK.N) , opens new tab Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news? Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-europe-2025-07-15/
2025-07-15 04:06
AI investments drive 64.1% of total deal value in H1 2025 VC fundraising declines 33.7% year-over-year, faces longer timelines Exit activity up 40%, optimism for IPOs and M&A in H2 July 15 (Reuters) - U.S. startup funding surged 75.6% in the first half of 2025, thanks to the continued AI boom, putting it on track for its second-best year ever, even as venture capital firms struggled to raise money, a report from PitchBook on Tuesday showed. Startup funding in the first six months of 2025 jumped to $162.8 billion, marking the strongest performance since the same period in 2021 — the historic peak for venture capital activity. Sign up here. That previous surge came during the era of the Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), when central banks slashed rates to stimulate economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic, sending capital into higher-risk assets including venture capital. This year’s boom has been driven largely by major AI investments and bold bets from big tech companies, a wave of activity set off by the debut of ChatGPT in late 2022. In the past three months alone, $69.9 billion was invested in U.S. startups. Standout deals included OpenAI’s $40 billion round and Meta’s (META.O) , opens new tab $14.3 billion purchase of a stake in Scale AI. Other AI deals exceeding $1 billion in the second quarter included significant investments in Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machine Labs, Anduril, and Grammarly. These deals underscore sustained investor conviction in the AI sector, which accounted for 64.1% of the total deal value and 35.6% of the deal count in the first half of the year. "I think it's downstream of the fact that OpenAI and Anthropic continue to grow at unbelievable rates," said Davis Treybig, partner at VC firm Innovation Endeavors. "If there's even a chance you could see that sort of progress in other domains, whether it's robotics, protein folding models, world models or video models, then there's a lot of people who are going to want to invest a lot of money." HARDER FOR VC FUNDS In contrast, U.S. venture capital fundraising continued to face headwinds, with just $26.6 billion raised across 238 funds in the first half of the year. This subdued environment represents a 33.7% year-over-year decline in capital raised, extending the downward trend from 2024. It is also taking fund managers longer to close new vehicles, with the median time stretching to 15.3 months by the second quarter of 2025 - the longest in over a decade, data shows. The disconnection from the startup market reflects concerns from limited partners on the asset class due to recent underperformance and liquidity constraints. A rebound in exit activity, including IPOs and M&A, has brought a sense of optimism for the remainder of the year. Exit activity in the second quarter was up 40% from last year, as a loosening antitrust environment and a thawing IPO market boost confidence. Sectors aligned with President Donald Trump’s priorities such as AI, national security, defense technology, fintech and crypto dominated IPO interest in the second quarter, the report noted. "The good news is we’re starting to see the tide turn," said Lucas Swisher, co-head of growth investing at tech investment firm Coatue. "IPOs like Coatue portfolio companies Hinge Health and Coreweave have been well received by the market, and there are a dozen companies filed now." https://www.reuters.com/business/us-ai-startups-see-funding-surge-while-more-vc-funds-struggle-raise-data-shows-2025-07-15/
2025-07-15 03:05
Analysts expect a 52% surge in second-quarter profit TSMC benefiting more than other chip foundries from AI boom Earnings call at 0600 GMT on Thursday TAIPEI, July 15 (Reuters) - TSMC (2330.TW) , opens new tab, the world's main producer of advanced AI chips, is expected to post a 52% jump in second-quarter profit to record levels, though U.S. tariffs and a strong Taiwan dollar could weigh on its outlook. Artificial intelligence-related demand continues to boom and while foundry industry revenue will probably grow 17% to 18% this year, sales for TSMC, by virtue of its market-leading position, will likely expand closer to 30%, said Mario Morales, group vice president at research firm IDC. Sign up here. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co, the world's largest contract chipmaker and a key supplier to Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab and Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab, is forecast to report net profit of T$377.4 billion ($12.9 billion) for the three months through June 30, according to an LSEG SmartEstimate compiled from 21 analysts. SmartEstimates place greater weight on forecasts from analysts who are more consistently accurate. TSMC has already flagged a rise in second-quarter revenue of 38.6%. Any profit result above T$374.68 billion would mark the company's highest-ever quarterly net income and its sixth consecutive quarter of profit growth. It remains unclear just how much U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs will affect TSMC. Taiwan was threatened with a 32% reciprocal tariff rate in April but has yet to be notified of an updated figure that some countries have received. Trump also said this month that tariffs on semiconductors are likely to come soon. The company said in June that U.S. tariffs were having some indirect impact, noting they can lead to slightly higher prices, which may in turn weigh on demand. In March, TSMC announced a $100 billion investment in the U.S. alongside Trump at the White House, on top of $65 billion pledged for three Arizona plants - two of which have been built. Another key issue is the Taiwan dollar's 12% appreciation against the greenback so far this year. "The exchange rate is a bigger concern as so much TSMC revenue is in USD," said Dan Nystedt, vice-president at TriOrient, an Asia-based private investment firm. TSMC has said a 1% appreciation in the Taiwan dollar typically reduces its gross margin by 0.4 percentage points. In June, the company said the Taiwan dollar's appreciation had shaved more than 3 percentage points off its gross margin. The company is due to report on Thursday and will provide third-quarter guidance during an earnings call scheduled for 0600 GMT. Shares in TSMC surged some 80% last year but have climbed just 3.7% for the year to date on worries about tariffs and unfavourable currency rates. ($1 = 29.2610 Taiwan dollars) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/tsmc-quarterly-profit-seen-soaring-record-trump-tariffs-forex-concern-2025-07-15/
2025-07-15 03:00
MUMBAI, July 15 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to hold near the key 86-per-dollar level on Tuesday, with traders awaiting U.S. inflation data that could influence expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open nearly unchanged from 85.9850 on Monday. The Indian currency spent much of Monday trading in a narrow range around the 86 level. Sign up here. Price action "absolutely suggests" 86-86.10 is a supply zone, a currency trader at a bank said, noting that a large UK-based bank was on offer on USD/INR on Monday. The pair "is well-anchored" around 86, with U.S. tariff uncertainty lingering and Treasury yields inching higher. "I doubt the upcoming U.S. inflation data will shift the tone much," he added. Investors will be watching the June U.S. inflation data due later on Tuesday to gauge how much room the Federal Reserve has to cut rates. Markets are currently pricing in two rate cuts in 2025, with the first widely expected in September. Economists have warned that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs could add upward pressure on inflation. The June print will be closely scrutinised for any signs of those effects filtering through to consumer prices. Goldman Sachs said in a note that it expects June core CPI to accelerate to 0.23% on-month, corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 2.93%. It expects moderate upward pressure from tariffs on select categories that are particularly exposed. Looking ahead, the bank said tariffs are likely to deliver a somewhat larger boost to monthly inflation prints. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher before the inflation data, with the 10-year yield hovering near its highest level in a month, lending support to the dollar. Asian currencies were mostly weaker on Tuesday, reflecting cautious sentiment. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.10; onshore one-month forward premium at 10 paisa ** Dollar index at 98.06 ** Brent crude futures down 0.3% at $69 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.44% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $523.6 million worth of Indian shares on July 11 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $31.4 million worth of Indian bonds on July 11 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-dig-its-heels-near-86usd-before-us-inflation-data-test-2025-07-15/
2025-07-15 00:53
JAKARTA, July 15 (Reuters) - Indonesian rescuers found alive on Tuesday 11 people missing at sea who had survived a boat capsize in bad weather by swimming for at least six hours to the nearest island, officials said. Two boats and dozens of rescuers hunted for those missing after the boat with 18 aboard overturned off the Mentawai Islands in the province of West Sumatra at about 11 a.m. on Monday, regional officials said. Sign up here. "It was raining hard when the incident happened," island official Rinto Wardana told Reuters. "Some of the passengers managed to swim and reach the nearest island." Seven had been rescued earlier, Wardana added. Ten of those on board were local government officials on a business trip to the town of Tuapejat, the boat's destination when it left Sikakap, another small town in the Mentawai Islands. . The Mentawai Islands consist of four main islands and many smaller ones. Boats and ferries are a regular mode of transport in Indonesia, an archipelago of more than 17,000 islands, where accidents are caused by bad weather and lax safety standards that often allow vessels to be overloaded. When a ferry sank this month near the tourist resort island of Bali with 65 aboard, 30 passengers survived, while 18 died and 17 went missing. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/boat-capsizes-off-indonesias-mentawai-islands-11-people-missing-2025-07-15/
2025-07-15 00:20
Potential sanctions on Russia could alter oil market outlook, ING analysts note China's economic data supportive for prices despite global growth concerns NEW YORK, July 15 (Reuters) - Oil prices dropped by less than 1% on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump's 50-day deadline for Russia to end the war in Ukraine and avoid sanctions eased concerns about any immediate supply disruption. Brent crude futures settled down 50 cents, or 0.7%, at $68.71 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down 46 cents, or 0.7%, at $66.52. Sign up here. "The focus has been on Donald Trump. There was some fear he might target Russia with sanctions immediately and now he has given another 50 days," said UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "Those fears about an imminent additional tightness in the market have dissipated. That's the main story." Oil prices had climbed on the potential sanctions but later gave up gains as the 50-day deadline raised hopes that sanctions could be avoided. In the event the proposed sanctions are implemented, "it would drastically change the outlook for the oil market," analysts at ING said in a note. "China, India and Turkey are the largest buyers of Russian crude oil. They would need to weigh the benefits of buying discounted Russian crude oil against the cost of their exports to the U.S.," ING said. Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine on Monday and had said on Saturday that he would impose a 30% tariff on most imports from the European Union and Mexico from August 1, adding to similar warnings for other countries. Tariffs raise the risk of slower economic growth, which could reduce global fuel demand and drag oil prices lower. Also on the tariff front, Brazil will work to get the U.S. to reverse "as quickly as possible" the 50% tariff it announced on all goods from that country, but does not rule out asking for more time to negotiate, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin said. China's economy slowed in the second quarter, data showed on Tuesday, with markets bracing for a weaker second half as exports lose momentum, prices continue to fall and consumer confidence remains low. Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG, said economic growth in China came in above consensus, largely because of strong fiscal support and the frontloading of production and exports to beat U.S. tariffs. "The Chinese economic data was supportive overnight," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. Elsewhere, oil demand is set to remain "very strong" through the third quarter, keeping the market balanced in the near term, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' secretary general said, according to a Russian media report. In U.S. supply, U.S. crude stocks rose by 839,000 barrels last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. U.S. government data on stockpiles is due on Wednesday. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-edges-down-market-contemplates-potential-sanctions-tariffs-2025-07-15/
