2025-11-28 11:38

Brent projected to average $62.23 per barrel in 2026 WTI projected to average $59.00 per barrel in 2026 For table of crude price forecasts, click Nov 28 (Reuters) - Oil prices are projected to remain under pressure in 2026, as swelling supplies eclipse modest demand growth, while geopolitical risks could cap deeper losses, a Reuters poll showed on Friday. The survey of 35 economists and analysts forecast that Brent crude would average $62.23 per barrel in 2026, down from October's forecast of $63.15. The benchmark has averaged $68.80 per barrel so far in 2025, according to LSEG data. Sign up here. U.S. crude is projected to average $59.00 per barrel, below last month's expectation of $60.23. "The crude oil market in 2026 is expected to be marked by a large and unprecedented global oversupply," said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. However, "ongoing political risks will maintain a crucial risk premium, essentially preventing the price from dropping as low as the high supply would otherwise suggest." Analysts largely expect the oil market to see a surplus in 2026, with estimates ranging anywhere from 0.5–4.2 million barrels per day, compared with 0.19–3.0 mbpd in the previous poll. Forecasts from the International Energy Agency imply a market surplus of 4.09 mbpd in 2026, while OPEC's recent monthly report implied a 20,000 bpd surplus if the wider group keeps pumping at October's rate, according to a Reuters calculation based on the report. OPEC+ has boosted output targets by around 2.9 million bpd since April, but plans to pause production hikes in the first quarter of 2026. Brent is expected to average $61.23 during that period, the poll showed. Poll participants widely believe OPEC+ will avoid aggressive production hikes in 2026, given persistent oversupply concerns. On the flip side, "we remain very sceptical about the group reversing the unwinding and cutting again. We expect it to consider doing so only if Brent remains below $55/barrel for a prolonged period," said Kim Fustier, head of European oil & gas research at HSBC. Global oil demand, meanwhile, is expected to grow by 0.5–1.2 mbpd in 2026, the poll showed. Analysts expect U.S. shale output to decline in 2026, which coupled with geopolitical risks "should put a floor under prices of about $60/barrel," said Matthew Sherwood, lead commodities analyst at EIU. U.S. sanctions on Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, could lead to brief disruptions in supply but are unlikely to have a sustained impact on the market, analysts said, with Russian barrels expected to re‑enter markets via shadow fleets and intermediaries. Peace talks could eventually bring more barrels back to market, adding to supply pressure, analysts noted. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/swelling-supply-keep-oil-prices-under-strain-2026-2025-11-28/

2025-11-28 11:34

Spain leads EU in pork production China deal allows regional import restrictions for disease Virus spreading in Europe, affecting pork in Germany and Croatia MADRID/BEIJING, Nov 28 (Reuters) - China has banned pork imports from Barcelona province after Spain detected its first case of African swine fever in three decades in two wild boar found dead in the area, a Chinese Customs document seen by Reuters showed. The outbreak of the virus, last recorded in Spain in 1994, coincides with Spanish efforts to court Beijing and gain market share in the pork sector and after China imposed tariffs on EU pork during an anti-dumping investigation. Sign up here. A separate Customs database entry showed China has also suspended pork imports from plants in the affected area belonging to 12 companies, including major exporters Costa Food Meat and Matadero Frigorifico Avinyo. SPAIN HALTS ALL PORK SHIPMENTS TO CHINA TEMPORARILY Spain is the European Union's leading pork producer, accounting for roughly a quarter of the bloc's output, ahead of Germany, with annual pork exports of about 3.5 billion euros ($4.05 billion). Spain recently signed an agreement with China that means producers in other parts of Spain should not be affected by the ban, but it has halted all pork shipments to China as a precaution until Beijing confirms it has implemented the protocol to restrict trade only from the affected province, Emilio Garcia, a senior Spanish agriculture ministry official, told reporters in a briefing. Once China declares it has been activated, Spain will be able to resume exports from regions that are unaffected by the virus, he said. The restrictions and special monitoring will last at least 12 months, Garcia added. South Korea and the United States also have regionalisation protocols with Spain, so they will continue to import from Spanish regions except the province of Barcelona, which contains 14 meat-processing plants. However, exports to Mexico and Japan will be restricted as the countries have no regionalisation agreements with Spain, Garcia said. PORK INDUSTRY ALREADY STRUGGLING "The European market is already struggling after a 20% drop in prices since July," said Jean-Paul Simier, a meat analyst at French commodities research group Cyclope. "There is a risk of an embargo against the biggest EU pork exporter, notably in Asia, and China in particular." Spanish pork lobby group Interporc said pork farms within a 20-kilometre (12.4-mile) radius of the location where the boar were found would face restrictions on operating and selling their products. There are 39 pig farms within that radius, according to the Agriculture Ministry. Spain's farmers' association, Asaja, said the sector was ready to face the outbreak, but called on authorities to address an "out-of-control presence" of wild animals such as boars and rabbits in rural areas that risked contaminating livestock. "We have spent years modernising farms, reinforcing biosecurity and making our operations among the most advanced in the world," it said. Garcia said authorities would conduct a census of the area's wild boar population and tightly monitor their movements. The two boar carcasses had been found "while they were still fresh," so the virus was detected early, he said. Spain's pork exports to China of over 540,000 metric tons in 2024 were worth 1.1 billion euros ($1.28 billion), Garcia said. The virus, which is harmless to humans but deadly for pigs, has been spreading westwards in Europe in recent years. Germany's sizeable pork industry has already been rattled, with many overseas countries imposing bans on its pork. In recent months, Croatia has been trying to contain an outbreak. ($1 = 0.8637 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/spain-reports-first-african-swine-fever-cases-since-1994-wild-boar-2025-11-28/

2025-11-28 11:31

Pressure on stocks has fallen sharply over the past decade 52% of assessed stocks are still classed as overexploited Aquaculture faces rising pressure from heatwaves, disease outbreaks ROME, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Fishing pressure in the Mediterranean and Black Sea has fallen sharply over the past decade, but just over half of assessed fish populations remain overfished and climate threats are mounting, the U.N. food agency said in a report on Friday. Sea fishing in the region, coupled with farmed production in salty or semi-salty coastal waters, produces about 2.06 million tonnes of food a year worth $21.5 billion and supports 1.17 million jobs, the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said. Sign up here. Average overall fishing pressure has fallen by 50% since 2013, while the proportion of stocks fished within sustainable levels has doubled thanks to more careful management and less fishing pressure, the FAO said in the biennial report. 'STOCKS NOT YET WHERE WE WOULD LIKE THEM TO BE' Even so, 52% of assessed stocks are still classed as overexploited, with incidental catch of vulnerable species like sharks and sea turtles a problem in parts of the central and eastern Mediterranean and the Adriatic. "Stocks are not yet where we would like them to be, but they are beginning to recover thanks to science-driven management action and strong stakeholder engagement, while aquaculture ... is proving it can help meet future demand for aquatic foods,” said Manuel Barange, the FAO'S head of fisheries and aquaculture. In 2023, fishers in the Mediterranean and Black Sea brought in a total of about 1.12 million tonnes of wild-caught fish and other marine animals, up 13% from 2022 but broadly stable over the past decade. Turkey remained the leading fishing nation, accounting for roughly 31% of landings and 17% of fleet capacity, followed by Italy and Greece. Aquaculture across the region produced 2.97 million tonnes of food in 2023, worth $9.3 billion, with farming in salty or semi-salty waters accounting for some 940,000 tonnes of this. However, aquaculture faces rising pressure from heatwaves, disease outbreaks, non-indigenous species and complex licensing and legal frameworks that can deter investment, especially for small producers, the report said. To meet projected demand by 2050 and ensure countries in the region reach global average per capita consumption of aquatic foods, put at 20.7 kg (45.6 lb) in 2022, total output will need to rise by between 14%-29%, the report added. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/mediterranean-black-sea-fish-stocks-show-recovery-threats-persist-un-says-2025-11-28/

2025-11-28 11:21

Nov 28 (Reuters) - An outage at the world's biggest exchange operator CME Group (CME.O) , opens new tab on Friday halted trading on its popular currency platform and in futures spanning foreign exchange, commodities, Treasuries and stocks. CME said in a statement the problem was a cooling issue at CyrusOne data centres, adding it was working to resolve it in the "near term" but offered no further details. Sign up here. Here are some key facts about trade via the CME: Futures are a mainstay of financial markets and used by dealers, speculators and businesses wishing to hedge or hold positions in a wide range of underlying assets. Average daily derivatives volume was 26.3 million contracts in October, CME said earlier this month. CME offers futures and options on futures across commodities, interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, and cryptocurrencies. It was formed through the merger of major U.S. exchanges and now operates four key entities: the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and COMEX. Trading is primarily electronic via CME Globex, which offers nearly 24-hour global access. IMPACT BY ASSET CLASS: ENERGY AND FUELS The halt hits energy markets by freezing futures and options on key benchmarks such as NYMEX West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, Henry Hub natural gas, RBOB gasoline and NY Harbor ULSD heating oil. According to CME, WTI Light Sweet Crude is the world's most liquid crude oil contract - more than 1 million WTI futures and options trade daily. CME says around 400,000 Henry Hub natural gas futures trade each day, and NY Harbor ULSD futures represent more than 180 million barrels a day of trading. These contracts are vital for producers, refiners and traders to hedge price risk and manage supply-chain exposure. AGRICULTURE - SOFT AND HARD COMMODITIES The trading halt temporarily disrupted price discovery and hedging in agricultural markets, a core part of CME's offerings. Contracts listed include, among others: Grains & oilseeds: corn, wheat, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil Softs: cotton and lumber Livestock: live cattle, feeder cattle, lean hogs Dairy: Class III milk and other dairy products With trading paused, producers, processors and investors lose access to benchmark hedging tools. METALS CME's metals complex spans precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, palladium) and base/ferrous metals including copper and others. COMEX Gold futures are a key benchmark for global gold price discovery and portfolio hedging. EQUITY INDICES CME lists equity index futures and options linked to major benchmarks including the S&P 500, Nasdaq-100, Dow Jones and Russell 2000, along with international indices such as Nikkei 225, plus E-mini and Micro E-mini variants. These products are widely used by asset managers, hedge funds and proprietary traders for index-level hedging and tactical positioning. INTEREST RATES, FIXED INCOME AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE CME's interest-rate suite covers the U.S. dollar yield curve with benchmark futures and options on SOFR, Fed Funds, U.S. Treasury notes and bonds and other short-term rates. Its FX complex offers listed futures and options on major and emerging-market currency pairs, alongside cash FX trading via the EBS platform, a major venue for spot and other cash FX products. According to LSEG data, futures on 10-year U.S. Treasuries were among the benchmarks whose prices stopped updating during the halt, while prices on EBS also froze, temporarily complicating rate and currency hedging for banks, corporates and asset managers. CRYPTOCURRENCIES CME offers regulated cryptocurrency futures and options, including on Bitcoin and Ether, as well as related crypto indices and reference rates aimed at institutional users. It is one of the main exchange-traded, centrally cleared routes for hedging and directional exposure in major digital assets. WEATHER CME runs a specialist weather derivatives market, with futures and options linked to Heating Degree Day (HDD) and Cooling Degree Day (CDD) indices and other temperature-based benchmarks for a range of U.S. and European locations. Utilities, energy firms and other weather-sensitive businesses use these contracts to hedge revenues and costs against temperature swings. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/key-facts-about-trading-cme-2025-11-28/

2025-11-28 10:57

HAT YAI, Thailand, Nov 28 (Reuters) - When Jantarakarn Kaewjan went to bed in Thailand's southern city of Hat Yai last Friday, three days of heavy rains had only caused some waterlogging in the street outside her apartment building. But a little past midnight, the rising waters reached her building, forcing her to move her motorcycle from the parking lot to a higher floor. Sign up here. "By 9 a.m., the water was chest deep," said the 40-year-old gas station worker. "It was all caused by rain." Hat Yai, a city with a population of size similar to Britain's Oxford, received 335 mm (13 inches) of rain that day, for its highest single-day tally in 300 years, resulting in catastrophic floods. At least 145 people have died in floods that have swept nine southern provinces, 110 of those in Songkhla, the province whose capital is Hat Yai, authorities said on Friday. Jantarakarn and two other residents told Reuters they had not received clear warnings from local authorities as the incessant rains swelled water levels, echoing wider complaints of government ineptitude in tackling the crisis. Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul's government has removed Hat Yai's district chief and transferred its police chief since the disaster. Narongporn Na Phatthalung, mayor of Hat Yai, which has a population of 243,778, said he initially misread the flood situation. "I sincerely apologise to the people of Hat Yai," he told the Channel 3 television station. "I admit that I made mistakes in managing this situation." PLAINS COULD NOT ABSORB INFLOW Hat Yai and nearby areas received 630 mm (25 inches) of rain over three days last week, with water rolling down surrounding hills to flood densely-populated low-lying plains unable to absorb the inflow. "This relentless influx of water overwhelmed the city's waterways and drainage systems," Thailand's Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA) said in a note, adding that the floods swelled quickly. Now, receding waters have made a muddy mess of the city of low-rise buildings, lively street restaurants and shopping areas favoured by tourists from neighbouring Malaysia. Lines of cars, parked in a bid to escape floodwaters, stood stalled on a wide street on Friday. Bright blue drums spilled out of a warehouse in a commercial area, blocking a lane. Elsewhere, people cleared mud and debris from homes that had been inundated. More than 16,000 people have been moved to 16 evacuation centres in the district of Hat Yai, authorities said, as the government approved funds of 4.75 billion baht ($148 million) to assist flood victims across the province. SURVIVING ON RAINWATER In previous years, announcements by local authorities warned people to evacuate ahead of possible floods, said 60-year-old Daeng, who gave only one name. "But this time, nothing," she said. "We didn't know anything. We had to take care of ourselves." Floods ravaged her home, bringing down the second floor, swamping rooms and sweeping away the family's television and even the water tank. "We've lost everything," she said. The floods have damaged more than 33,000 homes in Hat Yai and its surroundings, along with five hospitals, 58 schools and over 700 km (435 miles) of roads, an initial GISTDA assessment showed. Daeng and her family, though stranded in their home, had enough food to manage, but quickly ran out of water, said her relative Anusorn Niyomtham. "By the third or fourth day, it wasn't enough," said Anusorn, 40. "We had to collect rainwater."($1=32.1500 baht) https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/weve-lost-everything-how-floods-devastated-one-thailands-largest-cities-2025-11-28/

2025-11-28 10:50

LONDON, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Sterling was heading for its best weekly performance in over three months on Friday, in a sign of relief among investors after British finance minister Rachel Reeves revealed her long-awaited budget earlier this week. Reeves fought back on Thursday against criticism of the government's spending plans, which will fund extra welfare spending by raising the country's tax burden to a post-World War Two high. The government said it planned to raise taxes by 26 billion pounds ($34 billion). Sign up here. Britain's currency was last down 0.2% at $1.3202 . But it was up around 0.85% for the week so far, on track for its biggest weekly gain since early August. "Sterling's post-budget rise has the hallmarks of a relief rally rather than the start of a sustained trend," George Vessey, lead FX and macro strategist at Convera, said in a note to clients. "Sterling/dollar pushed above $1.32 as investors broadly welcomed the budget's signal of a more disciplined borrowing path, but the muted overall market reaction suggested much of the fiscal package had already been discounted and sterling's gains likely also reflected the unwinding of pre-event hedges." However, Vessey flagged that the pound's yield support is set to diminish, capping its room to rally further in the short term as further Bank of England rate cuts loom. The BoE kept interest rates unchanged in November in a tight 5-4 vote, but markets expect the central bank will resume its rate-cutting cycle when it convenes next month. The pound has gained 5.56% since the start of the year against a broadly weak dollar. The euro meanwhile was steady at around 87.58 pence , down from recent peaks. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-set-best-week-over-three-months-uk-budget-relief-2025-11-28/