2025-07-04 08:28

July 4 (Reuters) - Investors await U.S. President Donald Trump's July 9 deadline for trade partners to strike deals on tariffs with a degree of equanimity, but what happens beyond that has the power to stir up more volatility and uncertainty. The data docket for the coming week is light, leaving the focus squarely on tariffs - so far, the U.S. administration has a limited deal with Britain and in-principle agreement with Vietnam. Two down, just roughly 180 to go, including the penguin-populated Heard Island. Sign up here. Trump said on Sunday his administration was close to finalising deals with several trade partners and will send letters notifying others by July 9 of higher rates that will kick in from August 1. Here's a look at the week ahead from Rocky Swift in Tokyo, Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Alun John, Marc Jones and Amanda Cooper in London. 1/ DEALS, OR NO DEALS? With just days to go until the deadline, investors are on edge to see if the United States forges any agreements with trading partners as they seek to avoid higher levies. Investors have circled this date for months. Trump paused many of the harshest U.S. tariffs for 90 days after his April 2 "Liberation Day" announcement roiled global markets. The coming days could bring a number of scenarios. Some investors have speculated about more delays to allow for talks to continue, but Trump has said he is not thinking of extending the deadline. He even suggested he could impose a tariff of 30% or 35% on imports from Japan - well above the 24% rate he announced in April. 2/ SO MUCH WINNING It may be a sign you're not "winning" in trade talks with the Trump administration when you start attracting verbal broadsides like "spoiled" and "recalcitrant". That's the position of Japan, facing the July 9 deadline before hefty tariffs take effect on its export-dependent economy. Trump hinted at a "potential" deal in late April, but after multiple rounds of talks, none has emerged. He said last week he could set a tariff of "30% or 35% or whatever" on Japanese imports, far higher than the rate he announced on April 2. Cars and rice are sticking points. Japan has vowed not to "sacrifice" its critical agriculture sector. And with autos being Japan's biggest employer and export to the U.S., at nearly 30% of the total, Tokyo may feel it has no choice but to fight for a better deal. 3/ GILT TRIP British bondholders are no strangers to crisis. The British government's decision to scale back an unpopular reform of the welfare system, thereby blowing a 5-billion-pound hole in its budget plans and the visible upset of finance minister Rachel Reeves in parliament was all traders needed to unleash a blast of selling that revived memories of 2022. Benchmark 10-year gilt yields shot up 21 basis points at one point and sterling fell as investors fretted Reeves' job might be on the line, but reversed course after Prime Minister Keir Starmer publicly backed her. Reeves is running out of wiggle-room and may be forced into tax hikes later this year. British consumers are already under pressure. The coming week's data on house prices, car sales and economic growth may show more of those cracks. 4/ THE COMEBACK KID 2025 was meant to be European markets' year, as erratic U.S. policymaking and a once-in-a-generation fiscal shift in Germany prompted investors to shift their money into Europe. That's still the case for the euro , but in equities-land, Wall Street is catching up fast. The STOXX 600 benchmark is up 6.9% in 2025, just one percentage point above the S&P 500, a narrowing from around a 10-percentage point gap in March. (.STOXX) , opens new tab, (.SPX) , opens new tab A storming few months for big tech - where Europe cannot compete - is driving much of U.S. performance. Poster child Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab hit a market value of $3.92 trillion on Thursday. U.S.-friendly, or Europe-unfriendly, tariff developments in the coming days could see Wall Street overtake Europe on a year-to-date basis. Barring one day in April's tariff sell-off, that's not happened since early January. 5/ STABLE GENIUS With the "One Big Beautiful Bill" done, House Republicans will start working on getting the Senate's landmark stablecoin legislation — known as the GENIUS Act — passed and on to Trump's desk. Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a constant value. The act could see stablecoins explode from being worth around $250 billion now, to anywhere between $500 billion and $2 trillion in the next few years, depending on who you ask, but it is getting plenty of central bankers - and China - hot under the collar. One fear, especially in emerging markets, is it will trigger the "dollarisation" of their economies, whereas many in the industrialised world warn stablecoins give too much control over money to private firms that experience shows can become very unstable very quickly. https://www.reuters.com/business/take-five/global-markets-themes-graphic-2025-07-04/

2025-07-04 08:03

China announces duties up to 34.9% on EU brandy producers Duties come into effect on Saturday for five years Major cognac producers spared if they sell at minimum price Cognac makers say caught in wider dispute over China-made EVs EU says tariffs are unfair, unjustified SHANGHAI/PARIS, July 4 (Reuters) - China spared major cognac producers Pernod Ricard, LVMH and Remy Cointreau from hefty duties on EU brandy on Friday, a rare bright spot at a time of trade tensions between Brussels and Beijing as the two sides row over tariffs on Chinese-made EVs. China will from Saturday levy duties of up to 34.9% for five years on brandy originating in the European Union, most of it cognac from France, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said in a final ruling of an investigation lasting more than a year. Sign up here. But most of France's cognac industry, including big brands LVMH-owned Hennessy and Remy Martin, will be exempt from the duties provided they sell at a minimum price, the ministry said in a statement. It did not disclose the minimum prices. Beijing launched its anti-dumping probe on EU brandy in January last year, in what was widely viewed as retaliation for the EU's decision to impose big import tariffs on China-made electric vehicles. French cognac makers generate global exports of $3 billion a year combined. With premium aged bottles of the liquor selling for hundreds of dollars, they have complained they are collateral damage in the broader trade row between Brussels and Beijing. In addition to the reprieve, China's commerce ministry will give back deposits made by brandy makers since October, when provisional duties were imposed. The refund issue, which weighed particularly heavily on smaller producers, was one of the sticking points in months-long negotiations, two industry sources said. China is the world's biggest market for cognac in value terms. China's commerce ministry said in a statement on Saturday that 34 firms secured agreements for minimum price commitments instead of tariffs. Remy Martin owner Remy Cointreau (RCOP.PA) , opens new tab said in a statement that the deal on minimum price commitments constituted "a substantially less punitive alternative", enabling "the strengthening of some investments in China". Pernod Ricard (PERP.PA) , opens new tab said it regrets the increase in the cost of operating in China, but additional costs are significantly less than would be the case if tariffs had been made permanent. LVMH (LVMH.PA) , opens new tab and Campari (CPRI.MI) , opens new tab did not immediately respond to requests for comment. There was little sign that the rift between China and the EU was easing. Olof Gill, the European Commission's spokesperson for trade, said the tariffs were unfair and unjustified. WANG AND MACRON China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi is visiting Europe this week, seeking to lay the groundwork for a summit between EU and Chinese leaders later this month, with the EV dispute and China's curbs on the export of rare earths high on the agenda. At a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday, Wang said China and Europe have resolved the brandy issue via friendly consultations, state news agency Xinhua reported. Wang said he hoped France, as a core power in the European Union, will urge the EU to properly address China-EU trade and economic disputes and actively respond to China's concerns, the report said. Asked about media reports that China was poised to shorten the summit to a single day instead of two, a European Commission spokesperson said the programme was still being finalised. "Nothing has been cancelled because nothing has been announced and no final programme has been agreed yet," the spokesperson added. Last week, Reuters reported that French cognac makers had reached a tentative deal on minimum import prices for the Chinese market but that China would only finalise the deal if progress was made regarding EU tariffs on Chinese-made EVs. INVESTOR RELIEF Shares of French spirits makers were mixed as investors digested the ruling, with many relieved Beijing had agreed to drop tariffs in return for price commitments, likely reviving sales that have suffered due to the tariffs. Remy Cointreau shares were up 0.54% and Pernod was down 0.3%, having regained some ground lost earlier in the day. LVMH was down 1.5%. Monthly cognac exports to China have fallen by as much as 70% due to the trade dispute, according to data from the Bureau National Interprofessionnel du Cognac, a French industry group. Citi analysts said they expected upgrades to earnings forecasts for Pernod and Remy. Remy, which makes 70% of its sales from cognac, mostly in the U.S. and China, said it would update its annual guidance when it releases quarterly numbers on July 25. European spirits makers have also been grappling with a downturn in sales in the United States where inflation has deterred drinkers from pricier spirits. President Donald Trump has also threatened tariffs on imports from the EU. The minimum price pledges could translate into some price increases, but they will likely be small and it is too early to tell whether there could be an impact on shelf prices, a senior industry source with knowledge of the China negotiations said. "The French government has been raising this repeatedly with the Chinese government and saying this is a major bone of contention," said a senior French industry source with knowledge of the China negotiations, who declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter. "I think both sides, France and China, did not want this to get out of hand. They wanted to find a resolution." The cognac industry association said the deal for minimum price commitments will be "less unfavourable" than anti-dumping duties but still worse for its members than the historical pre-investigation norm. "This is why we renew our call to the French government and the European Commission to reach a political agreement with the Chinese authorities as soon as possible to return to a situation without anti-dumping duties," it said in a statement. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-impose-duties-up-349-eu-brandy-starting-july-5-2025-07-04/

2025-07-04 07:40

HYDERABAD, July 4 (Reuters) - India on Friday unveiled a series of steps to increase copper output, including encouraging foreign firms to set up smelters and refineries in the country in exchange for state-owned firms investing in their overseas mining operations. The document, parts of which were first reported by Reuters last week, said India - the world's second-biggest refined copper importer - may have to import 91%-97% of its copper concentrates by 2047. Sign up here. Despite an estimated 12.2 million metric tons of copper resources, only 18% are classified as reserves, highlighting limited domestic availability, according to the document. The growing need for concentrate imports necessitates diversification of supply and foreign asset acquisitions, the government document said, adding that this underscores an urgent need for strategic intervention to support the sector. As part of this, India plans to include a chapter on copper in the ongoing free trade pact talks with Chile and Peru to secure fixed quantity of copper concentrate, the document said. "Tightening copper supplies from key exporters like Indonesia and Panama have reduced India's sourcing options," the document said. "Countries such as Chile and Peru have long-term commitments with global players like Japan and China." India imported 1.2 million metric tons of copper in the fiscal year to March 2025, up 4% from a year earlier. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-attract-foreign-copper-firms-with-overseas-mining-ties-govt-document-shows-2025-07-04/

2025-07-04 07:36

HAMBURG, July 4 (Reuters) - Attempts will be made on Friday and over the weekend to reopen the river Mosel in west Germany on a limited scale to inland waterways freight shipping after an accident with a vessel damaged a lock, navigation authorities said on Friday. Shipping was stopped on the river, an important transit route for grains and rapeseed between Germany and France, after an accident involving a passenger vessel on Wednesday damaged a lock at Sankt Aldegund between Koblenz and Trier. Sign up here. Attempts are now starting to see if the lock can still be used for vessel transits on a limited scale after an initial assessment of damage, said a spokesperson for river navigation authority GDWS. The first test transits through the lock could be made over the weekend. If this is not feasible, attempts are planned to reopen the lock with temporary water control barriers. But this would be a slower process than using the damaged lock, possibly with each ship needing around an hour to transit the lock. About 50 inland waterways freighters are currently stranded on the river, called the Moselle in France. First efforts will be concentrated on enabling the stranded ships to pass through the lock to reach their destinations. But the aim is to allow normal sailings to resume, the spokesperson said. It is still not possible to say when the lock can be fully repaired. A similar lock accident on the Mosel in December that halted shipping led futures exchange operator Euronext to suspend physical delivery to river ports in eastern France for its rapeseed futures. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/authorities-attempt-reopen-mosel-river-germany-shipping-2025-07-04/

2025-07-04 07:14

Three people hospitalised with serious burn injuries Large blast heard across the capital just after 0600 GMT Pope Leo prays for victims of 'tragic incident' Children in nearby youth centre all safe ROME, July 4 (Reuters) - At least 27 people, including 10 police officers and a firefighter, were injured on Friday in a huge explosion at a petrol station in an eastern district of Rome, Italian authorities said. The blast at the distributor of petrol, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in the working class Prenestino neighbourhood was heard across the capital just after 8 am (0600 GMT). Sign up here. Website Roma Today published a photograph of a huge ball of flame and smoke rising high into the sky. Separate images released by the fire department showed the petrol station almost completely gutted. Apart from the first responders, 16 civilians were injured, including the manager of the fuel distributor, a police spokeswoman said in a video, saying the toll was not final, and adding that the causes of the incident would be investigated. An ambulance service spokesperson put the provisional number of injured at 28. "I pray for the people involved in the explosion of a gas station (...) in the heart of my Diocese. I continue to follow the developments of this tragic incident with concern," Pope Leo XIV wrote on X. Health authorities said eight people had been hospitalised, including two with serious burns and needing ventilation support, and a third person with burns was in serious but not critical condition. Firefighters and ambulance workers were caught up in the blast as they had been called to the scene earlier, after a truck hit a pipeline at the petrol station, local reports said. Rome Mayor Roberto Gualtieri, speaking from the scene, told reporters an incident during fuel-tank refilling operations was suspected, causing a gas leak, followed by a fire and the explosion. The station had the Eni (ENI.MI) , opens new tab brand but was not owned by the Italian energy group, the company said in a statement. Firefighters wrote on X that the fire was still burning but was under control. Flames spread to a nearby depot, while the shockwave from the explosion damaged nearby buildings, breaking windows. A sports centre that hosts a youth summer camp opposite the station was evacuated before the blast, a representative said in a Facebook video, adding that the five children in its care were safe and back with their families. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was following the situation, her office said in a statement. https://www.reuters.com/world/several-injured-rome-after-gas-station-explodes-reports-2025-07-04/

2025-07-04 06:41

US Congress passes massive tax-cut and spending bill Gold up 1.9% so far this week Platinum heads for fifth weekly rise July 4 (Reuters) - Gold prices rebounded on Friday and were heading for a weekly gain, helped by a retreat in the U.S. dollar and safe-haven inflows, as U.S. President Donald Trump's deadline for trade deals loomed. Spot gold was up 0.3% to $3,336.39 per ounce, as of 1211 GMT. The precious metal is up about 1.9% this week. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures gained 0.1% to $3,346.60. The dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab slipped 0.2% and was on track for a second week of decline, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. "The apprehension about the fiscal situation in the U.S. (after Trump's sweeping tax-cut bill passed Congress) and the lingering uncertainty over the approaching July 9 deadline for the tariff issue has boosted safe-haven demand," said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at brokerage firm ActivTrades. Trump announced that Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday, marking a shift from earlier plans for individual trade deals. On April 2, he announced reciprocal tariffs of 10%-50%, but later reduced most to 10% until July 9 to allow for negotiations. Meanwhile, Trump's tax-cut legislation cleared its final hurdle in Congress on Thursday, making his 2017 cuts permanent, funding his immigration crackdown and adding new tax breaks promised during Trump's 2024 campaign. Data showed U.S. job growth was unexpectedly solid in June, but nearly half of the increase in nonfarm payrolls came from the government sector, with private industry gains being the smallest in eight months as businesses battled rising economic headwinds. "The latest U.S. payroll data supports the case of a slowdown of the economy, but no standstill, slowing the pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates anytime soon," said UBS commodity analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Elsewhere, spot silver edged 0.2% higher to $36.9 per ounce and palladium eased 0.1% to $1,135.79. Platinum rose 1.5% to $1,387.54 per ounce and was heading for its fifth straight week of gains. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-heads-weekly-gain-us-tax-cut-bill-stokes-fiscal-worries-2025-07-04/