2025-07-02 21:07

NEW YORK, July 2 (Reuters) - - TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets Sign up here. By Lewis Krauskopf, Markets Reporter Jamie is enjoying some well-deserved time off, but the Reuters markets team will still keep you up to date on what moved markets today. A long holiday weekend awaits U.S. investors, but not before digesting a heaping portion of economic data and perhaps more developments on fiscal and trade policy. I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at [email protected] , opens new tab Today's Key Market Moves Today's Key Reads Get ready for the jobs report U.S. investors have some potentially market-moving developments to chew over before heading out for their July 4 Independence Day gatherings. Top of mind heading into Thursday is the U.S. employment report for June. Investors may be wary about a disappointment, especially after Wednesday's weak private payrolls data, which showed a drop for the first time in over two years. Economists are estimating an increase of 110,000 jobs in U.S. nonfarm payrolls for June, and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. The jobs report will be one of last key economic releases before the Federal Reserve's next meeting at the end of the month. A weak jobs report could further fuel expectations for interest rate cuts in coming months. Investors, as indicated by Fed Fund futures, already have been ramping up such bets on the amount of expected easing. September is seen as almost a certainty for the next rate cut, if the central bank does not first ease at the July meeting, which futures suggest is a roughly one-in-four chance. Wall Street, meanwhile, was back at record high levels on Wednesday, with the benchmark S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq both rebounding after day-earlier losses. President Donald Trump said the U.S. struck a trade deal with Vietnam that sets 20% tariffs on many of the country's exports. Shares of Nike and other apparel makers rose after news of the trade deal, which would impose a lower than initially expected tariff rate. The agreement could prove to be an appetizer to more trade news as a closely watched deadline of July 9 nears. That's when many of the harsh tariffs from Trump's April "Liberation Day" announcement may go into effect if agreements with trading partners are not reached. In other policy developments, the House of Representatives was weighing Trump's massive tax-cut and spending bill, a day after the Senate narrowly passed the legislation. Trump has urged lawmakers to pass the bill by the July 4 holiday. U.S. Treasury yields were modestly higher on Wednesday amid fiscal concerns about the legislation, which nonpartisan analysts say will add $3.4 trillion to the nation's debt over the next decade. Stock and bond markets in the U.S. were set for early afternoon closes on Thursday and will be closed on Friday for the holiday. What could move markets tomorrow? Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2025-07-02/

2025-07-02 20:55

CAIRO, July 2 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia and Indonesia signed several deals and memos of understanding worth around $27 billion between private sector institutions in several fields including clean energy and petrochemicals, the Saudi state news agency SPA reported on Wednesday. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto visited the Gulf kingdom on Wednesday and met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Sign up here. The two sides also agreed to bolster cooperation in the supply of crude oil and its derivatives, improve supply chains and their sustainability in the energy field and strengthen cooperation in the field of mineral resources, the Saudi state news agency said. Trade between the two counties amounted to around $31.5 billion in the last five years, according to SPA. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/saudi-arabia-indonesia-sign-several-deals-worth-around-27-billion-state-news-2025-07-02/

2025-07-02 20:45

SAO PAULO, July 2 (Reuters) - Brazilian planemaker Embraer (EMBR3.SA) , opens new tab said on Wednesday it delivered 61 aircraft in the second quarter of 2025, a 30% increase from a year earlier. The deliveries in the quarter through the end of June included 19 commercial jets, in line with the same quarter last year, and 38 executive jets, a 41% jump in the same time frame, Embraer said in a securities filing. Sign up here. The company added it also delivered four defense aircraft in the period, from one delivery a year earlier. The Brazilian firm expects to deliver between 77 and 85 commercial planes and between 145 and 155 executive jets this year. Embraer is set to release its full second-quarter earnings on August 5, according to its investor relations website. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/brazils-embraer-delivers-61-aircraft-q2-30-rise-year-on-year-2025-07-02/

2025-07-02 20:44

Pentagon's assessment suggests strikes against Iran likely achieved goals Evolving US intelligence on strikes being closely watched Iran says key nuclear facility seriously damaged WASHINGTON, July 2 (Reuters) - The Pentagon said on Wednesday that U.S. strikes 10 days ago had degraded Iran's nuclear program by up to two years, suggesting the U.S. military operation likely achieved its goals despite a far more cautious initial assessment that leaked to the public. Sean Parnell, a Pentagon spokesman, offered the figure at a briefing to reporters, adding that the official estimate was "probably closer to two years." Parnell did not provide evidence to back up his assessment. Sign up here. "We have degraded their program by one to two years, at least intel assessments inside the Department (of Defense) assess that," Parnell told a news briefing. U.S. military bombers carried out strikes against three Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22 using more than a dozen 30,000-pound (13,600-kg) bunker-buster bombs and more than two dozen Tomahawk land attack cruise missiles. The evolving U.S. intelligence about the impact of the strikes is being closely watched, after President Donald Trump said almost immediately after they took place that Iran's program had been obliterated, language echoed by Parnell at Wednesday's briefing. Such conclusions often take the U.S. intelligence community weeks or more to determine. "All of the intelligence that we've seen (has) led us to believe that Iran's -- those facilities especially, have been completely obliterated," Parnell said. Over the weekend, the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog, Rafael Grossi, said that Iran could be producing enriched uranium in a few months, raising doubts about how effective U.S. strikes to destroy Tehran's nuclear program have been. Several experts have also cautioned that Iran likely moved a stockpile of near weapons-grade highly enriched uranium out of the deeply buried Fordow site before the strikes and could be hiding it. But U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said last week he was unaware of intelligence suggesting Iran had moved its highly enriched uranium to shield it from U.S. strikes. A preliminary assessment last week from the Defense Intelligence Agency suggested that the strikes may have only set back Iran's nuclear program by months. But Trump administration officials said that assessment was low confidence and had been overtaken by intelligence showing Iran's nuclear program was severely damaged. According to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, the strikes on the Fordow nuclear site caused severe damage. "No one exactly knows what has transpired in Fordow. That being said, what we know so far is that the facilities have been seriously and heavily damaged," Araqchi said in the interview broadcast by CBS News on Tuesday. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-nuclear-program-degraded-by-up-two-years-pentagon-says-2025-07-02/

2025-07-02 20:42

TSX ends up 0.1% at 26,869.66 Eclipses Monday's record closing high Energy rises 1.4% as oil settles 3.1% higher Materials group avances 1% July 2 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index edged up to a new record high on Wednesday, helped by gains for resource and consumer discretionary shares, as investors continued to look past global economic uncertainty and weighed prospects for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) , opens new tab ended up 12.55 points, or 0.1%, at 26,869.66, eclipsing the record closing high it posted on Monday, before the Canada Day holiday. Sign up here. "The market continues to climb the wall of worry," said Greg Taylor, CFA, chief investment officer at PenderFund Capital Management Ltd. "There is a lot of fear out there but I think that kept a lot of people out of the market." U.S. private payrolls fell for the first time in more than two years in June as economic uncertainty hampered hiring, but low layoffs continued to anchor the labor market. "The U.S. ADP number came in light and that's gotten more people excited that there might be more rate cuts coming sooner in the U.S.," Taylor said. Wall Street also ended higher, helped by news of a trade agreement between the U.S. and Vietnam, while domestic data showed signs of trade uncertainty hurting the economy. The S&P Global Canada Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index edged down to 45.6 in June from 46.1 in May. The energy sector rose 1.4% as the price of oil settled 3.1% higher $67.45 a barrel. Gold also rose, which helped lift metal mining shares. The materials group was up 1%. Consumer discretionary added 2.4%, helped by a gain of 7.8% for the shares of autoparts manufacturer Magna International Inc (MG.TO) , opens new tab. Bombardier Inc (BBDb.TO) , opens new tab was another standout, with its shares jumping 21.4%. The company said on Monday it had secured an order for 50 Challenger and Global aircraft. Consumer staples was a drag, falling 1.5% and technology ended 0.5% lower. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/tsx-futures-edge-higher-investors-await-us-trade-updates-2025-07-02/

2025-07-02 20:33

WASHINGTON, July 2 (Reuters) - The budget bill the U.S. Senate passed on Tuesday and the House of Representatives is now debating for final approval would dampen development of wind and solar power, kill climate funding and boost oil, gas and coal output. Below are some details about the bill's provisions on energy development and the environment: Sign up here. SOLAR, WIND TAX CREDITS The legislation sharply reduces access to a 30% tax credit for solar and wind power projects that had been set to run until 2032, and which developers had relied on for future projects. To access the subsidy, projects must now start service by late 2027, one year earlier than proposed in the House bill, or begin construction within a year of the bill’s adoption. Using the credits would also require new standards on the origin of manufactured components used in the projects, in part to boost domestic manufacturing and reduce dependence on China. Clean manufacturing projects such as solar panel or battery manufacturing seeking a production tax credit from January 1, 2026 onward also need to meet those material-sourcing requirements. NUCLEAR, HYDRO AND GEOTHERMAL The Senate bill preserves tax credits for nuclear, hydropower and geothermal projects if they start construction by 2033. Those forms of power generation are favored by the Trump administration, in part because they do not rely on weather conditions to produce. HYDROGEN, EXISTING NUCLEAR AND CARBON CAPTURE Tax credits for clean hydrogen could be used until the end of 2027, two years longer than the House had proposed. The Senate bill maintains the carbon capture and storage tax credit proposed by the Senate finance committee that creates parity between credit levels for carbon utilization projects and those storing captured CO2 underground and preserves the credits for existing nuclear plants. TRANSFERABILITY Under the Senate bill, developers of renewable hydrogen and nuclear power, and carbon capture, can still sell their credits to third parties in order to raise capital to finance projects. GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION GRANTS, OTHER IRA PROGRAMS The bill rescinds all unobligated funding from former President Joe Biden's Inflation Reduction Act from the $20 billion Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund. It also will rescind unspent grant funding allocated to the Department of Energy by the IRA for transmission deployment and siting, low-carbon construction materials, programs to decarbonize buildings, money allocated to help oil and gas companies to reduce their methane emissions, and tribal energy loans. HOME EFFICIENCY Tax credits for households that want to make energy-efficient home improvements can only be used for projects that are completed by the end of 2025. For energy efficiency credits for commercial buildings, developers would need to start construction by June 30, 2026. The House version did not include the elimination of the buildings' tax credit. ARCTIC OIL AND GAS The bill mandates four sales of oil and gas drilling rights by 2032 in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Reserve that's home to endangered and threatened species such as polar bears. A January ANWR lease sale required by a law passed in Trump's first administration drew zero bids. The bill mandates five lease sales by 2035 in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska and nullifies Biden's leasing limits set in 2022. OTHER DRILLING The Senate bill would allow four year non-renewable drilling permits on federal lands. Such permits are currently subject to annual renewals. The bill also streamlines leasing and prohibits some measures meant to limit environmental damage. It requires 30 offshore lease sales in the Gulf of Mexico over 15 years. The Trump administration has named the area the Gulf of America. ICEBREAKERS The bill provides $24.6 billion for the U.S. Coast Guard's procurement of icebreakers, airplanes and ports, much of which could be used in development of Arctic oil, gas and minerals. COAL Senators attached a last-minute measure that could benefit miners of coal for steel making. It would allow producers of metallurgical coal to claim an advanced manufacturing production tax credit available for critical minerals. The credit for 2.5% of production costs is potentially worth hundreds of millions of dollars to coal companies. The bill would also reduce royalty rates the coal industry must pay when mining on public lands from 12.5% to 7% and expand leasing on federal lands by 4 million acres (1,618,740 hectares) OIL RESERVE The bill runs counter to Trump's plans to quickly replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, slashing the amount of money available for purchases. It offers funding that would now cover only about 3 million barrels of purchases, instead of about 20 million. It also cancels a mandated sale from the SPR of about 7 million barrels. The U.S. conducted a historic sale of 180 million barrels in 2022 after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/trumps-budget-bill-boosts-fossil-fuels-hits-renewable-energy-2025-07-02/