2025-07-01 13:17
SANTIAGO, July 1 (Reuters) - Chile's economic activity rose 3.2% in May when compared to a year earlier driven by a strong performance of its key mining sector, but still landed below market forecasts, central bank data showed on Tuesday. The IMACEC index, which accounts for about 90% of the Andean country's gross domestic product, accelerated from the 2.5% year-on-year increase reported in April but missed the 3.7% expansion forecast by economists polled by Reuters. Sign up here. The mining sector of the world's largest copper producer posted the main activity jump as it grew 10.3% year-on-year, boosted by higher output of the red metal, the bank said. "The (annual) IMACEC result was explained by the growth of all its components, with the performances of services and mining the highlights," it added in a statement. On a monthly basis, economic activity in the Andean country was down 0.2%, the bank said. "Economic activity remains solid, despite the modest month-to-month decline in May, which followed a decent run," Pantheon Macroeconomics' chief Latin America economist, Andres Abadia, said. "The outlook remains positive." https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chiles-economic-activity-misses-forecasts-may-despite-mining-boost-2025-07-01/
2025-07-01 12:46
Kazakh oil output up 7.5% in June after dip in May Kazakhstan has repeatedly exceeded OPEC+ oil output quota H1 oil output jumps 13% year on year OPEC+ set for big oil output hike, sources say MOSCOW, July 1 (Reuters) - Oil output in Kazakhstan, one of the world's 10 biggest producing countries, returned to growth last month and matched an all-time high, as the Chevron-led (CVX.N) , opens new tab Tengiz field ramped up, a source familiar with the data told Reuters on Tuesday. Kazakhstan has persistently exceeded quotas set by OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers led by Russia. Sign up here. Its overproduction has angered some of the group's members, sources have told Reuters, and has been one of the reasons for faster-than-expected output increases from OPEC+ as it fights for market share and seeks to punish those breaching curbs with lower international prices. The source, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said Kazakhstan's daily crude oil output, excluding gas condensate, a type of light oil, jumped in June by 7.5% from May to 1.88 million barrels per day. That matched an all-time high reached in March and was above Kazakhstan's quota of 1.5 million bpd for June under the OPEC+ deal. Total oil and gas condensate production in Kazakhstan rose to 2.15 million bpd last month from 2.02 million bpd in May, according to the source. Daily oil output at Tengiz, Kazakhstan's largest oilfield, jumped in June to 953,000 bpd from 813,200 bpd in May, the source said. Chevron embarked in January on a $48 billion expansion of Tengiz, which is one of the world's deepest and most complex fields due to high sulphur levels and harsh weather conditions. Tengizchevroil, the operator of Tengiz, has not commented on its commercial activity, while Kazakhstan's energy ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment. It has said it was committed to the OPEC+ deal, but also said the country's national interest is of paramount importance. Eight members of OPEC+ - Saudi Arabia, Russia, Kuwait, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Oman and Algeria - will meet on July 6 to decide on their production policy for August. Four delegates from the group told Reuters that OPEC+, is set to announce another big increase of 411,000 barrels per day in production for August. According to the source and Reuters preliminary calculations, the country's crude oil production without condensate rose in the first half of the year by 13% from the same period a year ago to 1.79 million bpd. Kazakhstan may exceed its previous oil production forecast by around 2% this year following an upgrade to output at its largest Caspian oilfields, Reuters calculations, based on data from state-owned energy company KazMunayGaz (KMGZ.KZ) , opens new tab, showed on Monday. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/kazakhstans-oil-output-returns-growth-june-matching-record-high-2025-07-01/
2025-07-01 12:01
KYIV, July 1 (Reuters) - Ukraine, whose power system has been under constant Russian missile and drone attacks, increased its electricity exports to 237 megawatt hours in June from around 95 MWh in May, Ukrainian ExPro consultancy said on Tuesday. The consultancy also said Ukraine had also increased power imports by 5% to 204 MWh. Sign up here. The consultancy provided no explanation for the changes. Market sources say long, sunny days have allowed more power to be produced at solar plants, but the ongoing campaign of repairs at nuclear power units has forced the import of power at night. Ukraine had no power exports in June 2024 while imports were several times higher, ExPro noted. The consultancy said Ukraine had exported power to Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, Moldova and Poland. Ukraine started large power exports to EU before the Russian invasion in 2022 but then switched it off after Russia damaged Ukrainian power generating facilities. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-increases-power-exports-imports-june-analyst-says-2025-07-01/
2025-07-01 11:55
July 1 (Reuters) - HSBC raised its 2025 average gold price forecast to $3,215 an ounce from $3,015 and its 2026 forecast to $3,125 from $2,915, citing elevated risks and government debt. Gold tends to perform well during periods of economic uncertainty and geopolitical tension, which lifted spot gold to a record high of $3,500.05 an ounce in late April. Sign up here. Spot gold was trading at $3,348.50/oz at 1146 GMT on Tuesday. "We anticipate a wide and volatile trading range of $3,600-3,100/oz for the rest of the year and year-end prices of $3,175/oz for 2025 and $3,025/oz for 2026," the bank said in a note on Tuesday. U.S. Senate Republicans on Monday evening were still trying to pass President Donald Trump's sweeping tax cut and spending bill despite divisions within the party about its expected $3.3 trillion hit to the nation's debt pile. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs as a July 9 deadline approaches. HSBC said that even if gold prices ease, levels above $3,000 an ounce have reinforced gold’s role as a safe haven and effective portfolio diversifier. It noted that central bank gold purchases will moderate on further rallies above $3,300 and could increase should gold correct nearer to $3,000. On the physical front, the bank said further gold price gains above $3,500 could lead to reduced demand in the jewellery, coin and small bar markets, particularly in economies such as India and China. https://www.reuters.com/business/hsbc-raises-average-gold-price-forecasts-2025-2026-2025-07-01/
2025-07-01 11:50
BERLIN, July 1 (Reuters) - The German government has lowered the gas supply security level to early warning grade from alarm level as supply bottlenecks eased, Economy Minister Katherina Reiche said on Tuesday. Berlin had declared the alert level in June 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and a sudden drop in gas imports from Moscow. Germany no longer imports pipeline-based gas from Russia and no Russian liquefied natural gas arrives in its LNG terminals, Reiche said. Sign up here. She said Germany's gas supply was secure and the conditions for the alert level according to its emergency plan no longer existed. Reiche added that given the stable situation, it was not necessary for the government to refill the country's gas storage facilities through its trading hub. The early warning level, the first of three crisis levels, will remain in place for the government to keep a close eye on the supply situation. "The market is still able to cope with this disruption or demand without the need for non-market-based measures," Reiche told journalists at a news conference in Berlin. Germany's gas storage levels are around 50% below levels of previous years but storage activity has increased significantly, she said. While gas prices have stabilized at around 34 euros per megawatt hour, this is still twice as high as before the energy crisis stirred by the war in Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-lowers-gas-security-alert-level-supply-bottlenecks-ease-2025-07-01/
2025-07-01 11:50
SINTRA, Portugal, July 1 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank can afford to wait a while before contemplating any further change in interest rates, and it is not obvious the bank should ease much more in the current cycle, Estonian policymaker Madis Müller said on Tuesday. The ECB has cut its benchmark deposit rate by a combined 2 percentage points since last June but it has signalled a pause for July and financial investors are expecting an even longer break, anticipating just one more cut towards the end of the year. Sign up here. "It makes sense for policy to stay on hold for a while," Müller told Reuters on the sidelines of the ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal. "It’s reasonable not to change rates in July," Müller said. "While it’s too early to discuss the autumn, it’s also reasonable to assume that we should not go much lower during the current cycle, unless the euro area economy will turn out to be much weaker than we expect." The ECB can afford to take its time because inflation has essentially reached its 2% target, growth is recovering and interest rates are no longer a drag on economic growth. However, trade negotiations with the United States and prospects for greater military and infrastructure spending, particularly in Germany, could materially alter the outlook, so policymakers are well advised to take their time until there is greater clarity. The ECB can also sit tight because risks around the inflation outlook are broadly balanced - a rare moment for the bank, which has spent the last decade first fighting excessively low and then exceptionally high inflation. The euro's rapid appreciation could weigh on price growth, however, and prove a drag on exporters' profitability. But Müller said things were not at a level that would have him concerned. The euro was trading just above 1.18 against the dollar on Tuesday, its highest level since the autumn of 2021 and well above the 1.02 in early 2025, before the Trump administration's erratic policies turned the dollar's fortunes around. "The euro exchange rate against the dollar is well within the historical range," he said. "The appreciation this year has indeed been quick but we’re not at a level where I am particularly concerned." https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ecb-can-afford-hold-off-further-rate-changes-while-mller-says-2025-07-01/
