2025-06-30 10:44

MUMBAI, June 30 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee slipped on Monday to end the month and quarter slightly lower, trailing most Asian peers amid muted portfolio inflows and weighed down by the country’s external investment deficit. The currency closed at 85.7550 against the U.S. dollar, down 0.3% on the day and posted modest losses of 0.2% and 0.3% respectively for the month and quarter, underperforming most Asian peers amid a broad dollar downtrend. Sign up here. While the Indian unit is little changed on the year so far, Asian peers such as the Taiwan dollar and Korean won have risen about nearly 13% and 8% year-to-date, respectively, while the offshore Chinese yuan, a closely tracked peer of the rupee, is up over 2%. India's external investment deficit is among the key reasons cited by analysts behind the rupee's underperformance. The external investment positions of Asian countries have come into focus as investors ramp up hedge against persistent weakness in the dollar, thereby boosting currencies of countries with sizeable investment surpluses, like Korea and Taiwan. The dollar index is down over 10% on the year so far, bogged down by worries over U.S. trade and fiscal policies, worries over the future independence of the Federal Reserve and expectations of upcoming cuts to benchmark interest rates. Muted portfolio flows have also been a sore point for the rupee with foreign investors net pulling about $0.5 billion from local stocks and bonds over the April-June quarter. Despite the relative underperformance, analysts expect a broadly weaker dollar to support the rupee. "We see scope for USD/INR to consolidate in an 84-86 range with a downside bias," DBS said in a note, adding that it would consider lowering USD/INR’s forecast if the US Federal Reserve pivots towards a rate cut later this year and sets the stage for more USD weakness. On the day, traders said that dollar bids from foreign bank and state-run banks weighed on the rupee even as most of its Asian peers logged gains. (This story has been refiled to fix the dateline to June 30) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-ends-month-quarter-tad-lower-trails-most-asian-peers-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 10:37

PARIS, June 30 (Reuters) - A cryptocurrency investment fraud ring that investigators said laundered 460 million euros ($540 million) using a worldwide network of accomplices has been dismantled in Spain, European police body Europol said on Monday. Europol said Spanish police led the operation against the criminal network, and that law enforcement agencies from France, Estonia and the United States were also involved. Sign up here. Five people were arrested as a result of the operation, with three arrested on the Canary Islands and two in Madrid. Europol, headquartered in The Hague, said the network allegedly used associates around the world to raise funds through cash withdrawals, bank transfers and crypto-transfers. Investigators suspect the organisation of establishing a corporate and banking network based in Hong Kong, using payment gateways and user accounts in the names of different people and in different exchanges to receive, store and transfer criminal funds. The investigation continues, added Europol. ($1 = 0.8527 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/cryptocurrency-fraud-ring-busted-spain-after-laundering-540-million-europol-says-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 10:31

LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today Investors are keeping a wary eye on the progress of President Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful" U.S. tax-cutting and spending bill that is slowly making its way through the Senate, with signs it may not make it by Trump's preferred July 4 deadline. Meanwhile, over on Wall Street, futures on the S&P 500 suggest another record high might be in the offing later on. Sign up here. Mike Dolan is enjoying some well-deserved time off over the next two weeks, but the Reuters markets team is here to provide you with all the information you need to start your day. Today's Market Minute * Canada scrapped its digital services tax targeting U.S. technology firms late on Sunday, just hours before it was due to take effect, in a bid to advance stalled trade negotiations with the United States. * The trade deal signed between U.S. President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer lowering some tariffs on imports from Britain has come into effect, the British government said on Monday. * A million-dollar question will hang over the world's top central bankers when they meet in Sintra, Portugal, from Monday evening: Is the monetary system centred on the U.S. currency beginning to unravel? * The war between Israel and Iran offered a real-time look at some new global cross-asset dynamics that can help investors understand the state of play in the first half of 2025 and what they can expect in the next six months. TPW Advisory founder Jay Pelosky details three key takeaways from the conflict. * Plus, ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso explains why Egypt was one of the biggest economic losers of the Middle East's 12-day war. The euro's big beautiful moment The euro is heading for a ninth straight day of gains versus the dollar, something it has only achieved three times since its inception in 1999. Another daily rise and we're in record territory. In 2025's "everyone hates the dollar" trading environment, the euro, and European assets in general, have to be real magnets for investor cash. The euro itself has gained nearly 14% against the dollar so far this year, while its performance against other currencies has been far less eye-popping. It has risen around 3.5% against both the pound and the Japanese yen and has barely broken even against the Swiss franc and Norwegian crown. Confidence in the United States as an investment destination - not just in markets, but for businesses too - has not vanished, but has taken a serious knock from the erratic and unpredictable policies of the Trump administration. This would not be obvious when looking through the lens of the stock market, given the S&P 500 is at record highs, in dollar terms at least. When priced in other currencies, it is a long way off. Europe's STOXX 600 has risen 7% so far this year, compared with the S&P's 5% rise. On an equal-weighted basis, the divergence is even more marked. Wall Street's Magnificent 7 are back in vogue, but not quite riding to the rescue. The equal-weighted S&P is up 3.3% versus a near-10% gain in the STOXX equivalent. That said, in spite of the chaos from Trump's on-again off-again tariffs, the heightened uncertainty stemming from the Middle East and the deficit-busting "One Big Beautiful Bill" that is up for debate in the Senate right now, investors aren't exactly ditching U.S. assets en masse. "Anywhere But The USA" may sound catchy as an investment theme, but it has taken more than that to lure capital into Europe. European governments, spearheaded by Germany, have pledged to unleash a one trillion euro ($1.17 trillion) spending bazooka, much of which will be concentrated on defence and infrastructure, as they attempt to address years of riding on the coattails of Washington for security, and of shortfalls in spending on basics at home. The July 9 deadline for a trade deal is less than two weeks away - and with Trump saying he will impose 50% tariffs on all EU goods without a deal - investors are moving their money. Data from LSEG's Lipper Funds show that more than $100 billion has flowed into European equity funds so far this year - up threefold from the same period last year - while outflows from the U.S. more than doubled to nearly $87 billion. "All that is an indication that at least market forces, investors, those who move real money around, actually see value and have confidence in Europe," European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said earlier this month. She said now is the time for Europe to take its destiny into its own hands, and that this is the euro's "moment". Chart of the day With the U.S. Independence Day holiday on Friday, the June employment report lands on Thursday. A Reuters poll shows economists expect to see a rise of 129,000, slightly below May's 139,000 increase. Evidence of the impact on the economy from Trump's tariffs and their potentially inflationary effect, along with the mass layoffs among government employees and the likelihood of big cuts to a raft of welfare benefits is starting to materialise in other data points. So far, the monthly non-farm payrolls report has not been one of them. May's number marked the fifth upside surprise in the past 12 months, and the ninth reading below the 200,000 mark over the past year. Layoffs are historically low, but hiring is not exactly booming. The most recent weekly jobless claims numbers showed the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell, but work opportunities are becoming scarce as businesses are reluctant to hire while things such as import tariffs are in flux. Today's events to watch * Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the European Central Bank Forum on Central Banking 2025 in Sintra, Portugal * Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy in London * Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee speaks at the Aspen Ideas Festival 2025 * June Chicago PMI * Three- and six-month Treasury bill auctions Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. ($1 = 0.8533 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 08:32

LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - Hedge funds sold energy stocks last week at the fastest pace since September 2024 and at the second-quickest clip in the last 10 years, as oil prices fell on easing Middle East tensions, a Goldman Sachs (GS.N) , opens new tab note seen by Reuters on Monday showed. Crude prices tumbled over $10 last week following a cease-fire between Israel and Iran. Oil prices wobbled on Friday on reports of increased supply from oil producing group OPEC+ and remain well below the recent peak of around $81. Sign up here. Hedge funds, starting June 23, sold the stocks of energy-related companies across every major region, the Goldman note said. Last week's selling in the sector was the biggest in almost a year and the second largest in the last decade, said the Goldman note, sent to clients on Friday. Shares of oil, gas and consumable oil companies as well as energy equipment and services firms were sold. Hedge fund selling focused on every region but primarily on North America and Europe, said the note. In Europe, hedge funds added short positions and fled long bets, said Goldman. A short position expects asset prices to fall, while a long position expects it to rise. While many increased short bets against energy companies, speculators' total combined positions remained proportionately long on global energy stocks, data from the note showed. Hedge fund gross leverage, a gauge of how many positions hedge funds have on, remains at a five-year high, said Goldman Sachs. Last week saw the largest stock buying in five weeks, the note added, with hedge funds buying company shares in every global region, the bank said. Stock sectors most bought included financial, tech and industrial companies, it said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/hedge-flow-hedge-funds-sell-energy-stocks-oil-slumps-says-goldman-sachs-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 07:01

SEJONG, South Korea, June 30 (Reuters) - South Korea will seek an extension to the 90-day pause in U.S. tariffs that is set to expire next week, as negotiations are likely to continue past the deadline set between Seoul and Washington, a senior South Korean trade official said on Monday. South Korea's new administration held its first senior-level trade talks with the U.S. last week, and a third round of working-level technical discussions since the two countries agreed in late April to craft a trade package reducing U.S. tariffs before the U.S. 90-day pause ends on July 9. Sign up here. "It seems some countries will reach a deal by July 8, some might be granted an extension to continue negotiations, while others will decide if they want to continue negotiating under tariffs or not," the official told a briefing. "We will do our best to be granted by July 8 an extension to continue negotiations," the official said, adding that the U.S. is expected to make a decision on a further extension on the day. During the talks last week, the U.S. mainly raised issues related to South Korea's non-tariff barriers, as South Korea already imposes nearly zero tariffs on U.S. imports under a free trade agreement, the official said. Other issues of foreign exchange rates and defence costs are being discussed via separate channels, the official said. Some 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea as a deterrence to North Korea and U.S. President Donald Trump has often complained about the cost-sharing arrangement. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-says-seeking-extension-us-90-day-tariff-pause-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 06:59

MUMBAI, June 30 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to be well supported at open on Monday, aided by the strength in Asian currencies following positive trade-related developments between the U.S. and China. The one-month non-deliverable forward suggests the rupee , which rallied 1.3% last week to 85.4750 per U.S. dollar, will open slightly firmer. Last week's move marked the rupee's best weekly performance in over two years, fuelled by the plunge in oil prices and continued weakness in the dollar. Sign up here. The rupee's bias remains skewed to upside after last week's clean break below 85.80, a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. There is likely to be "good supply on upticks" on the dollar/rupee pair, he said, pegging support at 85.30 and then at 85. The offshore Chinese yuan inched up at 7.16 to the dollar and it is not too far away from its year-to-date high. The South Korean won added 0.5%, the top performer among major Asian currencies. Optimism over the U.S. trade deals and mounting expectations of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts boosted Asian currencies. The White House said on Thursday it had signed an agreement with China to accelerate rare earth approvals. Hours later, Beijing said both sides had agreed on the terms of the deal reached in London earlier this month, developments investors took to signal progress. Meanwhile, U.S. economic data on Friday added to the case for the Fed rate cuts this year, particularly against the backdrop of progress on the trade front. U.S. real consumer spending was softer than expected, leading our economists to revise down their real GDP growth tracking to 2.0% from 2.1%, Morgan Stanley said in a note. Following the data, traders increased bets that the Fed will cut short-term borrowing costs by a total of 75 basis points in 2025, with the first move likely in September. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 85.55; onshore one-month forward premium at 10.5 paise ** Dollar index down at 97.18 ** Brent crude futures down 0.3% at $67.6 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.28% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $1,243.5 million worth of Indian shares on June 26 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $71.7 million worth of Indian bonds on June 26 https://www.reuters.com/world/china/rupee-ride-asia-fx-rally-us-china-trade-cheer-2025-06-30/