2025-06-30 00:41

Brent up 6% in June, US crude gains 7% Oil supply risk premium shrinking, says analyst OPEC+ plans could smother any upside in prices, says analyst HOUSTON, June 30 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged down on Monday as investors weighed easing Middle East risks and a possible OPEC+ output increase in August. Both Brent and U.S. crude oil benchmarks posted their biggest weekly declines since March 2023 last week but rose for the second consecutive month, gaining around 6% and 7% respectively. Sign up here. Brent futures settled down 16 cents, or 0.2%, to $67.61 a barrel and expired on Monday. The more active September contract ended at $66.74. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled down 41 cents, or 0.6%, at $65.11 a barrel. A 12-day war that started with Israel targeting Iran's nuclear facilities on June 13 sent prices above $80 a barrel before sliding back to $67. "This ceasefire that was quickly engineered appears to be holding up, so the supply risk premium that was in place is continuing to be withdrawn in a rapid fashion," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production hit a record 13.47 million barrels per day in April, up from 13.45 million bpd in March, according to data released by the Energy Information Administration as part of its Petroleum Supply Monthly series. The record U.S. oil production was adding to the bearish sentiment on Monday, Kilduff added. OPEC+ SET TO BOOST PRODUCTION IN AUGUST Four OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week that the group was set to boost production by 411,000 bpd in August after similar increases for May, June and July. If the increase is agreed, it would bring the total rise in supply from OPEC+ to 1.78 million bpd so far this year, equivalent to over 1.5% of total global demand. "I believe this potential supply pressure remains under-priced, leaving crude vulnerable to further weakness," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. The oil producer group is set to meet again on July 6. Some market tightness remains despite rising output, however, said Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS. A Reuters survey found that OPEC oil output rose in May, but gains were limited by cuts by countries that had previously exceeded their quotas. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, meanwhile, made smaller increases than allowed. Kazakhstan, which has persistently exceeded quotas set by OPEC+, may exceed its previous oil production forecast by around 2% this year following an upgrade to output at its largest Caspian oilfields, Reuters calculations, based on data from state-owned energy company KazMunayGaz (KMGZ.KZ) , opens new tab, showed. A survey of 40 economists and analysts in June forecast Brent crude will average $67.86 per barrel in 2025, up from May's $66.98 forecast, while U.S. crude is seen at $64.51, above last month's $63.35 estimate. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-prospect-more-opec-supply-easing-risks-mideast-2025-06-30/

2025-06-30 00:32

Canada rescinds tax to keep US trade talks going Dollar stays soft ahead of payrolls test US tax and spending bill crawls through Senate NEW YORK, June 30 (Reuters) - Global stocks hit an intraday record on Monday on hopes U.S. trade negotiations with key partners would continue to progress, while the dollar declined and was set for its worst first-half performance in more than five decades. Canada halted its digital services tax targeting U.S. technology firms just hours before it was due to take effect, in an effort to advance stalled trade negotiations with Washington. Sign up here. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and U.S. President Donald Trump will resume trade negotiations in an attempt to agree on a deal by July 21, in an extension from Trump's original July 9 deadline for "reciprocal" tariffs. The July 9 deadline still holds for other countries, although officials have suggested most deals could be done by the September 1 Labor Day holiday. On Monday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent advised that the U.S. could move back to the tariff levels on April 2, when Trump announced a wide array of steep duties against countries around the globe, and that the decision for any extension to negotiations would be up to Trump. On Wall Street, U.S. stocks rose modestly with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing at record levels for a second straight session, led by a gain of about 1% in technology (.SPLRCT) , opens new tab, while consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) , opens new tab was the worst performing of the 11 major S&P sectors. "Animal spirits seem to have taken hold here," said Roy Behren, co-president of Westchester Capital Management in New York. "It is also quite common for the last couple of days of a quarter to see strength because of the window dressing." The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 275.50 points, or 0.63%, to 44,094.77, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 31.88 points, or 0.52%, to 6,204.95 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab rose 96.28 points, or 0.48%, to 20,369.73. Investors will eye a flurry of labor market data in the holiday-shortened trading week, culminating in Thursday's government payrolls report. The report is scheduled for release a day early, while the U.S. stock market will have a shortened session on Thursday and be closed on Friday due to the Independence Day holiday on July 4. Some Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have said the strength of the labor market gives the central bank the leeway to hold off on cutting interest rates until they can get a better sense of the impact Trump's tariffs will have on inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said Monday that the economy has yet to face the full impact of Trump’s trade tariffs and said he still sees one cut from the Fed this year, while Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee said he sees no sign of stagflation but there is the possibility of both unemployment and inflation getting worse simultaneously. Investors were also monitoring the progress of a huge U.S. tax-cutting and spending bill slowly making its way through the Senate, which Republicans will try to pass on Monday. The Congressional Budget Office estimated the bill would add $3.3 trillion to the nation's debt over a decade, testing foreign appetite for U.S. Treasuries. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab gained 3.88 points, or 0.42%, to 918.67 and was on track for its third straight session of gains after hitting an intraday record of 919.47. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index closed down 0.42%, but secured its second straight quarterly advance despite dropping more than 1% in June. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.41% to 96.80, with the euro up 0.55% at $1.1783. The greenback has struggled throughout the year, partly due to growing expectations the Fed may become more aggressive in cutting interest rates next year when Powell is replaced as Chair. The dollar is down 10.5% for the first half, which would mark its biggest drop over the first six months of the year since 1973, when the U.S. shifted to a free-floating exchange rate. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 0.47% to 143.97 while sterling edged up 0.08% to $1.3725. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 4.9 basis points to 4.234%. U.S. crude settled down 0.63% to $65.11 a barrel and Brent settled at $67.61 per barrel, down 0.24% on the day. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-06-30/

2025-06-29 23:06

LONDON, June 30 (Reuters) - Confidence levels among British employers hit a fresh nine-year high this month as companies became more optimistic about the outlook for the economy, according to a survey published on Monday. The Lloyds Bank Business Barometer rose by one point to 51%, the highest since November 2015, adding to an 11-point jump in May following a tumble in April when U.S. President Donald Trump announced a big jump in import tariffs, many of which have since been suspended. Sign up here. The survey's measure of economic optimism touched a 10-month high, rising by a point after a 16-point increase in May. Hann-Ju Ho, senior economist at Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said a rise in hiring intentions - with 60% of firms expecting higher staffing levels in the coming year - suggested employers were starting to prepare for future growth. The Bank of England is watching Britain's jobs market closely as it tries to gauge how much inflation pressure remains in the economy. Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that he saw signs of a slowdown in the labour market, due in part to the government's tax increase for employers, which began in April. But the Lloyds survey showed wage growth expectations rose for a second month in a row, with 36% of respondents forecasting average pay increases of 3% or more. Separate figures published by jobs website Adzuna showed UK staff vacancies edged down in May from April but rose by 0.5% compared with May last year, the third such increase in a row after more than a year of falls. "May reinforced the sense that the job market in the UK is gradually regaining its footing," said Andrew Hunter, co-founder of Adzuna. The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) said its gauge of expectations among businesses about the economy over the next three months were less negative than in May but remained weak after the tax increase on employers and geopolitical upheaval. "Companies are still grappling with higher employment costs, cautious spending behaviour on the part of households and increasing global uncertainty," said Alpesh Paleja, the CBI's deputy chief economist. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-business-confidence-levels-hit-highest-since-2015-lloyds-says-2025-06-29/

2025-06-29 21:54

WARSAW, June 29 (Reuters) - Polish power grid operator PSE will on Monday sign a deal to get a loan exceeding 10.8 billion zloty ($2.99 billion) from state-owned bank BGK to build new power transmission lines, the government press office said. PSE had said in January its transmission network development plan for 2025-2034 assumes investment of over 64 billion zloty. Sign up here. A fund set up by BGK and the Polish climate ministry in 2024 has earmarked 70 billion zloty from the European Union recovery funds to build and upgrade the country's power transmission network. ($1 = 3.6117 zlotys) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/polish-power-grid-get-3-billion-loan-build-transmission-lines-2025-06-29/

2025-06-29 20:59

Rise in global supply to dent iron ore and LNG prices Gold and lithium exports to offset some losses Tariff uncertainties forcing businesses to delay investment decisions SYDNEY, June 30 (Reuters) - Australia's mining and energy export earnings are expected to continue to slide over the next two years due to elevated risks of trade barriers, falling bulk commodity prices and a weak global economy, a government report said on Monday. The June-quarter report by Australia's Department of Industry, Science and Resources said uncertainties swirling over U.S. President Donald Trump's policies have disrupted global trade, forcing businesses to delay their investment decisions. Sign up here. "The increased caution has induced further weakness in activity. The associated uncertainty is likely to impinge on world commodity demand, as the nations that Australia supplies are impacted," the report said. "The outlook is more uncertain than normal." In April, Trump imposed a 10% tariff on goods from most countries, although he suspended higher levies on many trading partners for 90 days until next month. Trump said last week that the U.S. had signed an agreement with China, Australia's largest trading partner, related to trade but he did not provide details. For the 2024-25 financial year ending this month, Australia is estimated to post commodity earnings of A$385 billion ($252 billion), down from A$415 billion in 2023-24. That is expected to fall to A$369 billion next year and to A$352 billion in 2026-27. Prices for iron ore, Australia's top export, and liquefied natural gas will likely ease due to higher global supply, the report said. Iron ore export earnings could fall from A$116 billion this year to A$105 billion next year and to A$97 billion in 2026-27. Gold will shine next year and is expected to become Australia's third-largest export after iron ore and LNG at A$56 billion with both volumes and prices expected to increase, the report said. "Higher prices for gold, and forecast higher copper and lithium exports, are partly offsetting the impact of lower prices for iron ore, coal and LNG," Resources Minister Madeleine King said in a statement. Lithium prices are expected to recover slowly after the recent drop, with revenue forecast to rise from A$4.6 billion this year to more than A$5.5 billion next year and more than A$6.6 billion in 2026-27, the report said. ($1 = 1.5279 Australian dollars) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/trade-risks-keep-shrinking-australias-resources-earnings-report-says-2025-06-29/

2025-06-29 16:55

MUMBAI, June 29 (Reuters) - India's annual monsoon rains covered the entire country on Sunday, nine days earlier than is typical, the weather department said, bringing forward planting of summer-sown crops. The monsoon is the lifeblood of India's nearly $4 trillion economy, delivering almost 70% of the rainfall needed to water farms and replenishing aquifers and reservoirs. Sign up here. Nearly half of India's farmland is not irrigated and depends on the annual June-September rains for crop growth. The southwest monsoon has further advanced into the remaining northwestern parts of the country, effectively covering the entire country nine days ahead of schedule, the India Meteorological Department said in a statement. In a typical year, rains lash the southwestern coastal state of Kerala around June 1 and move northwards to cover the entire country by July 8. The country has received rainfall that is 8% above average so far this month, IMD said. An IMD forecast last month said India is likely to see above average monsoon rains for the second straight year in 2025. Farmers usually start planting summer-sown crops such as rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, and sugarcane after the arrival of monsoon rains. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/land-use-biodiversity/indias-monsoon-covers-country-nine-days-early-accelerating-planting-2025-06-29/