2025-11-26 07:16

LONDON, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Europe’s gas market is far calmer today after years of turmoil that saw the region swap Russian supplies for liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, a strategy that is unlikely to change even if U.S. President Donald Trump brokers a peace deal in Ukraine. The White House is pushing Moscow and Kiev to agree to a plan to end the almost four-year war. If successful, Russian oil and gas might soon begin to trade more openly. But that will likely do little to change Europe's gas landscape. Sign up here. Benchmark TTF European gas prices traded below 30 euros per megawatt hour this week, the lowest for this season since before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Prices also slipped 2% on Tuesday after reports that Kiev had backed parts of the deal. That muted reaction reflects the enormous transformation of Europe's gas market since the invasion and resulting EU sanctions on Russia triggered the region's worst energy crisis in 50 years. Europe has today largely shaken off its outsized pre-invasion reliance on Russian pipeline gas, shifting instead to LNG, primarily from the U.S., the world's top producer and exporter of the fuel. So after three anxious winters dominated by fears over dwindling storage levels, the well-supplied market has settled into a new, calmer norm. FEWER WINTER JITTERS Recent price behavior tells the story. A cold spell hit northwest Europe last week, leading to a rapid depletion of gas stocks, with northwest Europe’s gas demand jumping by 80% from the previous seven days, according to LSEG data. And European gas storage is currently only around 79% full, compared with 88% last year and a 10-year average of 86.5%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. A few years ago, this scenario would likely have triggered a price spike and political panic. But not this year - prices have barely budged. The difference is LNG. Ample cargoes, mostly from the U.S., have kept any nerves in check, helped along by forecasts for milder temperatures in the coming weeks. PSYCHOLOGICAL SHIFT A psychological shift in Europe’s gas market appears to have taken place: traders now assume gas will be there. First, European LNG imports are also not sky-high. They may be up around 10% year-on-year so far in 2025, but they are 10% below 2022 and 2023 levels for the same period, according to Kpler data. Yet, even with Europe sitting on less gas storage, TTF prices are still only around a quarter of 2022 levels and roughly a third lower than in 2023 and 2024. This suggests traders are relaxed about Europe having sufficient gas supplies this winter, even if storage levels decline. That confidence rests on a wave of new supply, with even more expected as new U.S. liquefaction capacity comes online. Global LNG cargoes in transit surged to a record 22 million tons last week, with the U.S. accounting for more than a third, according to Kpler. And U.S. LNG capacity - which has risen about 15% this year to 19 billion cubic feet per day - is set to climb to 27 bcfd by the end of 2027, according to LSEG. UPSETTING THE BALANCE Risks remain. A prolonged cold snap in Europe or Asia could intensify competition for cargoes and tighten the market. That is unlikely to produce extreme price swings, however, given the current supply‑demand balance. Nor is a Ukraine ceasefire likely to upend this new equilibrium. While news of a deal might initially spur a price move, it probably wouldn’t prove durable. Even if sanctions on Russia's energy sector were eased, European governments would be reluctant to re-embrace Moscow as a core supplier after the shock of 2022. Some limited Russian flows might resume, especially to landlocked central and eastern European countries, and Russian LNG projects could add more volumes to the global market. Most of those flows, however, would likely continue to be absorbed outside Europe, as they have since the invasion. While Europe’s new LNG-focused gas strategy has its risks, including a heavy reliance on U.S. supplies, it offers more room to maneuver compared with the inflexibility and vulnerability of heavy pipeline dependence on Russia. This new balance should offer European consumers and industries much relief, and, hopefully, predictability, following the crisis years since 2022. Want to receive my column in your inbox every Monday and Thursday, along with additional energy insights and links to trending stories? Sign up for my Power Up newsletter here. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), , opens new tabyour essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI , opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/dont-expect-ukraine-peace-deal-alter-europes-gas-gameplan-2025-11-26/

2025-11-26 06:54

Nov 26 (Reuters) - U.S. LNG producer Venture Global (VG.N) , opens new tab accused Shell (SHEL.L) , opens new tab of waging a "three-year campaign" to damage its business after Shell appealed an arbitration loss, according to a staff note confirmed by Reuters on Wednesday. Venture Global has faced arbitration claims from Shell, BP and other European buyers alleging contract breaches after the company sold LNG on the spot market during the 2022 energy crisis. Sign up here. The email from Venture Global's co-founders, Michael Sabel and Robert Pender, criticized as "misguided" a decision by Shell to challenge the unanimous ruling and added that Venture Global would continue to defend itself. Venture Global and Shell did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment. The decision should be a concern to Shell's board of directors and its shareholders, the Venture Global co-founders added in their email. "To be very clear, this action relies on completely baseless claims and is an unfortunate continuation of their three-year campaign to damage Venture Global," the company told employees. First reported by the Financial Times, the note was confirmed to Reuters by a company source who spoke on condition of anonymity. It also highlighted recent supply deals worth $28 billion with customers in Greece, Japan and Spain, saying the company was on track to become the world’s largest LNG producer. Shell launched a challenge in New York state court this month to overturn the arbitration ruling. Separately, Shell was ordered to pay Venture's legal fees following a recent loss in arbitration LNG supply claims. Both cases centered on Venture Global's failure to deliver LNG under long-term contracts while selling cargoes on the spot market as prices surged after Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. In August, Venture Global won a case against Shell at the International Chamber of Commerce but lost another against BP (BP.L) , opens new tab in October, which is seeking damages of more than $1 billion. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/venture-global-accuses-shell-campaign-harm-lng-business-ft-reports-2025-11-26/

2025-11-26 06:54

Japan stands ready to take necessary action on FX Takaichi says Japan not resorting to 'reckless' spending Japan to fund package with additional Y11 trln debt, TV Asahi says TOKYO, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi ruled out on Wednesday the possibility that Japan could face a British-style "Truss moment", or loss of market confidence stemming from her expansionary fiscal policy. Prices of Japanese government bonds have fallen in tandem with the yen currency last week, as Takaichi's big spending plan and preference for low interest rates stoked fears of rising debt and prolonged, elevated inflation. Sign up here. Takaichi told parliament the government stood ready to take action against speculative yen falls or volatile moves in long-term interest rates. "We'll keep a close eye on whether currency moves reflect economic fundamentals, or are driven by speculative moves, and take necessary action," she said. Takaichi said her administration's economic stimulus package was not "reckless spending" and added that the government would strive to lower Japan's ratio of debt to gross domestic product, keeping a close eye on bond yield moves. "Japan isn't in a situation where it will face something similar to a Truss shock" she said, because of it runs a current account surplus. "What's most important for me is to ensure Japan's fiscal sustainability." The remarks came in response to an opposition lawmaker's query whether Japan could face a situation resembling that of Britain in 2022, when then Prime Minister Lizz Truss unveiled unfunded tax cuts that caused a spike in bond yields and a plunge in the pound. Last week, Takaichi's cabinet approved a stimulus package of 21.3 trillion yen ($136 billion) that includes general account outlays of 17.7 trillion yen, far exceeding the previous year's 13.9 trillion, for the largest stimulus since the COVID-19 pandemic. On Wednesday, broadcaster TV Asahi said Japan plans to issue more than 11 trillion yen in additional government bonds this fiscal year to fund part of the package. That would be more than half the supplementary budget of about 17.7 trillion yen earmarked to fund the package, and far exceeds last year's additional bond issuance of about 6.7 trillion, the broadcaster added. ($1=156.3800 yen) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-ready-take-necessary-action-forex-pm-takaichi-says-2025-11-26/

2025-11-26 06:31

Deutsche Bank raises 2026 gold forecast to $4,450 per ounce Spot gold hits highest since November 14 Unemployment claims fall, but job market remains weak Nov 26 (Reuters) - Gold prices hovered near an over one-week high on Wednesday, after expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will trim interest rates next month kept non-yielding bullion a favoured asset. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,162.99 per ounce at 01:55 p.m. ET (18:55 GMT), after hitting its highest since November 14 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.6% higher at $4,165.20 per ounce. Sign up here. "The focus has shifted away from the dollar and towards a decrease in interest rates in December," said Marex analyst Edward Meir, noting gold's rise despite the dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab being steady. Rate cut bets "are helping gold a bit, as is the talk that they might nominate a Fed chairman soon and the front runner is Kevin Hassett from the Economic Advisory Committee of the president." Hassett, like U.S. President Donald Trump, has said interest rates should be lower than they are under Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Gold, a non-yielding asset which thrives in a low-interest rate environment, received an additional boost from this news. Traders see an 85% chance of a Fed rate cut next month, compared to 30% a week ago, the CME FedWatch tool , opens new tab showed. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to still-low layoffs, though the labor market is struggling to generate enough jobs for those out of work amid lingering economic uncertainty. U.S. consumer confidence also weakened in November as households grew more concerned about jobs and their financial outlook. The data releases followed a series of recent dovish comments from Fed policymakers. The outlook for gold remains positive, with most research banks seeing gold above $4,000 per ounce in 2026. Deutsche Bank has raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,450 an ounce from $4,000, citing stabilising investor flows and persistent central bank demand. Spot silver rose 3.3% to $53.12 per ounce, platinum was up 1.2% at $1,571.80, while palladium added 1% to $1,411.50. (This story has been corrected to fix the U.S. gold futures settlement price in paragraph 2) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-climbs-near-two-week-high-reinforced-us-rate-cut-bets-2025-11-26/

2025-11-26 06:24

More than 2.7 million affected by floods in Thailand Military helicopters deployed in southern city of Hat Yai Aid sent by air, sea and road, military says HAT YAI, Thailand, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Thailand airlifted patients and flew critical supplies, including oxygen tanks, into a submerged southern city on Wednesday, as the death toll from some of the region’s worst floods in years climbed to 33. Floods have swept through nine Thai provinces and eight states in neighbouring Malaysia for a second successive year, prompting both countries to evacuate nearly 50,000 people. Sign up here. In Indonesia, 8 to 13 people are estimated dead following floods and landslides this week, while one has died in Malaysia. Three days of torrential rain starting last week dumped record volumes on Hat Yai, Thailand’s southern commercial hub, flooding hospitals and stranding thousands on rooftops. On Friday, the city received 335 mm of rain, its highest in a single day for 300 years. The Thai military has mobilised boats, helicopters and even its lone aircraft carrier to deliver supplies and evacuate the sick. Extreme weather events can become more frequent as a result of global warming, with higher sea surface temperatures supercharging tropical storms. "There have been 33 deaths across seven provinces," Thai government spokesperson Siripong Angkasakulkiat said in Bangkok. "Causes of death include being swept away by currents, drowning, electrocution, and landslides." PUBLIC CALL FOR EQUIPMENT Without electricity, parts of the city were still in darkness late on Wednesday and swamped by almost waist-high swirling brown water, according to a Reuters journalist. Rescue workers pushed boats through flooded neighbourhoods, some of them loaded with residents pulled out of their homes. In an update on social media, provincial authorities said that flood waters in many areas were gradually receding but currents remain strong, hindering rescue operations. The Thai military has pressed some 200 boats and 20 helicopters into service in the area, and authorities have received appeals for help from around 77,000 people through social media channels, according to Siripong. Military helicopters dropped supplies to residents gathered on rooftops, some of them waving for help. Other aircraft flew into the area with generators, oxygen tanks and water, social media posts by the air force and navy showed. Thailand's only aircraft carrier, Chakri Naruebet, which set out from its home port on Tuesday, had joined the relief effort, providing air support, the navy said. The government made a public call for equipment, including boats and jet skis. Three consecutive days of downpours since last Wednesday dumped 630 mm (24.8 inches) of rain around Hat Yai, higher than a previous peak of 428 mm in 2010, according to the country's Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency. The weather system has moved away towards the Strait of Malacca and intensified into a tropical cyclone that will move towards Indonesia, the Thai Meteorological Department said. HOSPITAL EVACUATIONS IN THAILAND AND MALAYSIA Floods have affected more than 980,000 homes and over 2.7 million people in Thailand, the interior ministry said. Flood waters had inundated the first floor of Hat Yai's main government hospital treating 600 patients, around 50 of them in intensive care, public health ministry official Somrerk Chungsaman told Reuters. "Today, all intensive care patients will be transported out of Hat Yai Hospital," he said. At another hospital, an army helicopter evacuated a critically ill elderly woman, who was surrounded by medical staff on the aircraft then wheeled away from the rooftop helipad of another facility, according to a handout video. In Kangar, the capital of Malaysia's Perlis state, which borders Thailand, workers moved patients out of the Tuanku Fauziah Hospital on gurneys through knee-high water, according to a Reuters journalist. 'AT LEAST SEND THEM SUPPLIES' Despite the push by Thailand's military, which took over relief efforts on Tuesday, some residents of Hat Yai and surrounding areas who were still waiting to be rescued posted desperate pleas on social media. Auntita Taechinchotikan, 33, who lives in Bangkok, had only managed to make contact with her stranded brother and his family early on Wednesday. "I've tried contacting every rescue team, and they've all responded, but no one has been able to reach the house," she told Reuters. Ten family members were trapped in two buildings in Hat Yai, including her parents and young children, said Auntita. "If they can’t take them out, then at least send supplies," she said. "I don’t know how much food they have left to survive." https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/thailand-airlift-critical-patients-southern-floods-kill-33-2025-11-26/

2025-11-26 06:11

BOJ eyes rate hike as soon as next month, sources say Investors welcome UK budget Traders anticipate December Fed cut, eye new Fed chair New Zealand dollar surges on hawkish RBNZ tilt NEW YORK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The yen weakened against the dollar on Wednesday, after an initial boost from speculation about a possible Bank of Japan rate hike next month faded, while sterling advanced on a UK budget that offered a larger-than-expected fiscal buffer. The dollar fell as investors maintained expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its December meeting, as a mixed set of economic indicators did little to alter that outlook. Sign up here. The yen has been on the market's radar for some time, as investors remain alert for the possibility of Japanese intervention to boost the weakening currency. The BOJ is preparing markets for a possible interest rate hike as soon as next month, sources told Reuters, reviving previous hawkish language as worries about sharp yen declines return and political pressure to keep rates low fades. The yen initially rose against the dollar after the Reuters report of a possible rate hike, before reversing course. It was last down 0.2% at 156.44 per dollar, having earlier hit an intraday high of 155.66 . "It's going to be hard to significantly change the trajectory of the yen with just one hike unless the BOJ delivers a hawkish hike and commits to raising rates consistently through 2026 to bring inflation under control," said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at UBS in New York. "Unless that happens, I don't think the yen is going to benefit significantly because the rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan are still quite wide and volatility is still low." The yen has been under pressure from worries about Japan's worsening fiscal position. "There is a possibility of intervention over Thanksgiving, but if the market's fear of intervention is sufficient to stop dollar/yen from rising, it sort of reduces the possibility," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank London. The pound was also in focus with Britain's budget announcement. British finance minister Rachel Reeves delivered a budget that will give her more room for meeting her borrowing targets, which calmed investor nerves. In a figure closely watched by investors assessing Britain's borrowing risks, the Office for Budget Responsibility said the government will now have more than double its previous buffer for meeting its fiscal targets even as it raises spending on welfare. Sterling was last up 0.5% on the dollar at $1.3228 and was also higher versus the euro, which slipped 0.3% to 87.64 pence. , . DOVISH FED IN 2026? In the United States, Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto, said the focus is on the "growing likelihood of a more aggressive easing campaign from the Fed." Data showed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended November 22, the lowest since April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week. A separate report showed non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely tracked proxy for business spending, jumped 0.9% in September after an upwardly revised 0.9% increase in August. The data, however, failed to bolster the dollar. Investors are also betting that the reported leading candidate to be the next Fed chair may pursue a more dovish policy, adding to the U.S. currency's weak outlook. Bloomberg News reported that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has emerged as the front-runner to be the new chair. Hassett, like President Donald Trump, has said interest rates should be lower than they are under current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday there is a good chance Trump would announce his pick before Christmas. "We have had three months without economic data from the U.S. and we're going to get a lot. ... Markets will be much more driven by actual fundamental data rather than an appointment for the Fed chair," said Ales Koutny, head of international rates at Vanguard in London. U.S. rate futures have now priced in an 85% chance of a 25 basis-point move next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Elsewhere, the euro last changed hands at $1.1590 , up 0.2%. The New Zealand dollar jumped after the country's central bank cut its interest rate to 2.25% as expected, but signaled an end to the easing cycle as the economy showed early signs of recovery. The kiwi rose 1.3% to US$0.5695, after earlier hitting a three-week high, as traders reduced expectations for further rate cuts. The Australian dollar rose 0.7% to US$0.6517 after Australian inflation accelerated for a fourth straight month in October, closing the door to further policy easing. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-slips-investors-bet-us-rate-cuts-kiwi-jumps-after-rbnz-decision-2025-11-26/