2025-11-24 23:59

Indexes up: Dow 0.44%, S&P 500 1.55%, Nasdaq up 2.69% Deutsche Bank sees S&P 500 rising to 8,000 by 2026 end Bristol Myers gains after rival's positive late-stage data NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks closed higher on Monday, extending Friday's rally as increased odds that the U.S. Federal Reserve will lower its Fed funds target rate in December helped investors look past concerns about inflated tech valuations. U.S. indexes embarked on the holiday-shortened week with solid gains, with strength in the "Magnificent Seven" group of artificial-intelligence-related momentum stocks putting the tech-heavy Nasdaq out front. Sign up here. A spate of economic reports, belatedly released after the recent six-week government shutdown, hinted at labor market weakness and stubbornly elevated inflation, which has bolstered investor optimism that the Fed will implement its third and final interest rate cut of 2025 at the conclusion of its December monetary meeting. INVESTORS 'BREATHE SIGH OF RELIEF' Dovish commentary from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly lent some support to that optimism, although other policymakers voiced dissenting opinions. "The street is falling into the line of thinking that a rate cut is coming in December," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. Financial markets are pricing in an 85% likelihood of that occurring, up from 42.4% a week ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool. The release of economic data is set to continue this week, with retail sales, producer prices, and new orders for durable goods joining independent indicators such as Case-Shiller home prices, the Conference Board's consumer confidence report and the National Association of Realtors' pending home sales data. Third-quarter reporting season is drawing to a close. As of Friday, nearly 95% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported, 83% of which delivered better-than-expected earnings. Analysts now expect third-quarter aggregate earnings growth of 14.7% for constituents of the bellwether index, a significant improvement over the 8.8% estimate on October 1, according to LSEG data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 202.86 points, or 0.44%, to 46,448.27, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab gained 102.13 points, or 1.55%, to 6,705.12 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab gained 598.92 points, or 2.69%, to 22,872.01. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, communication services (.SPLRCL) , opens new tab enjoyed the largest percentage gain. Consumer staples (.SPLRCS) , opens new tab and energy stocks (.SPNY) , opens new tab were the only two sectors to close in negative territory. The U.S. holiday shopping season kicks off this week, starting with Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday. The health of the consumer, who shoulders about 70% of the U.S. economy, will be assessed for any signs of weakness amid increased layoff announcements and weak survey reports. Even so, the National Retail Federation expects holiday sales to top $1 trillion for the first time. Earnings from consumer-oriented companies such as Best Buy (BBY.N) , opens new tab are expected later this week. TECH VALUATION WORRIES LINGER AI bellwether Nvidia's (NVDA.O) , opens new tab last week failed to assuage looming fears of a potential AI bubble. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain on track for monthly losses. Deutsche Bank helped revive investor risk appetite after projecting the S&P 500 would reach 8,000 by the end of next year, the most bullish forecast among major global brokerages. Bristol-Myers (BMY.N) , opens new tab advanced 3.3% after European rival Bayer (BAYGn.DE) , opens new tab unveiled positive late-stage data for its cardiovascular drug, boosting confidence in Bristol-Myers' experimental drug milvexian. Centene (CNC.N) , opens new tab and Oscar Health (OSCR.N) , opens new tab jumped 4.6% and 22.3%, respectively, following a report that Trump is considering extending the Affordable Care Act's subsidies for two years. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.3-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 116 new highs and 76 new lows on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, 3,187 stocks rose and 1,478 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2.16-to-1 ratio. The S&P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and three new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 112 new highs and 122 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 18.32 billion shares, compared with the 19.94 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/wall-street-futures-mixed-investors-mull-fed-rate-cut-focus-data-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 23:28

BP excavates over 200 feet of pipeline to locate leak source Major airlines add refueling stops to flights amid pipeline shutdown Delta Air Lines and Alaska Airlines use tanker trucks to supplement fuel NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - BP's (BP.L) , opens new tab Olympic Pipeline system remained offline on Monday as the oil major along with state and local authorities continued probing what caused the leak near Everett, Washington. Major airlines have turned to contingency plans to minimize impact on flights during the busy Thanksgiving travel week. The fuel leak was first reported on November 11. BP restored one of the two pipelines east of Everett that had been shut to determine the source of some product discharge. The restored line was shut down again shortly after, halting refined product deliveries on the system. Sign up here. "Over 200 feet of pipeline have been excavated to date. Crews are operating around the clock and will continue overnight operations tonight," BP said in an emailed statement on Monday. The timeline for restarting the pipeline is not available, the company said, the total amount of leaked product is still being assessed. The 400-mile Olympic Pipeline system moves refined petroleum products including gasoline, diesel and jet fuel from northern Washington to Oregon. Last week, Washington Governor Bob Ferguson declared an emergency following the pipeline shutdown, which has disrupted jet fuel supplies to Seattle-Tacoma International Airport (Sea-Tac). Operations at Sea-Tac have not seen major disruptions as airlines turn to contingency plans, a spokesperson said. "We encourage travelers to stay in touch with their airlines about their specific flight." CONTINGENCY PLANS Major airlines including Alaska Airlines (ALK.N) , opens new tab and Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) , opens new tab have implemented plans to minimize impact to flights during busy Thanksgiving travel week. Delta has transported extra fuel via tanker trucks into Sea-Tac to supplement fuel reserves and added refueling stops to a number of outbound domestic long-haul flights, the carrier said in an emailed response. Alaska Airlines has tankered fuel on inbound flights to Seattle and expanded its trucking operations to bring in extra fuel, in addition to adding a fuel stop to roughly a dozen flights per day. "We continue to minimize the impacts of the Olympic Pipeline fuel leak. We do not expect disruption to our operations at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport through the Thanksgiving travel week," Alaska Airlines said in a statement. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bps-olympic-pipeline-shutdown-hits-airlines-fuel-supply-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 23:04

Yuan gains on dollar contrast with Trump's first term Steady rise suggests policy intent, analysts say Goldman expects yuan to strengthen to 7 per dollar by year-end Nov 25 (Reuters) - The yuan has shrugged off a trade war, slow growth, rock-bottom interest rates and a slump in foreign investment, to head for its sharpest annual gain since the pandemic year of 2020. The steady appreciation of the tightly-managed currency has reignited speculation that Beijing is renewing its campaign to drive the yuan's global use, analysts say. Sign up here. The People's Bank of China (PBOC), which manages the currency within a fixed trading band, did not comment when asked about the yuan's management this year or the strategy behind its strength. Yet for market participants, the nature of gains on the dollar are telling. Where in 2018, the yuan was a shock-absorber for U.S. trade restrictions and fell about 5%, in 2025 it is nearly 3% stronger. That has happened because, for months, it has been guided higher almost every morning by the PBOC's midpoint settings, while at the same time frequent state banks' dollar buying has capped volatility and steadied its grind higher. "It's staying stronger than expected despite escalating U.S. trade actions," said Kelvin Lam, senior China+ economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "From a strategic optics point of view, China appears keen to project the image of a stable yuan to build international credibility, reminiscent of 1998 when the yuan refused to join the wave of competitive devaluations during the Asian Financial Crisis and cemented its status as a regional anchor." Stronger-than-expected daily fixings by the PBOC since last November have gained attention in light of weak economic fundamentals. Benchmark interest rates are well below dollar counterparts. Growth has been held back by anaemic consumption and the capital account showed a $281 billion deficit over 10 months to end October. At the same time, China's economic blueprint appears to harden its ambitions for the currency. Having long promised to "prudently promote" yuan internationalisation, the 15th five-year plan published in October drops the word "prudently". "Showcasing a strong and stable yuan amid a volatile market environment tends to be a good case for China to promote yuan internationalisation," said Kiyong Seong, lead Asia macro strategist at Societe Generale. SEVEN AND BEYOND The strongest hand behind the yuan has been the central bank, which has encouraged investment bank analysts to expect gains and greater adoption to continue. "For both economic and non-economic reasons, we believe yuan internationalisation has become a policy priority for the Chinese government and is likely to accelerate meaningfully in the coming years," analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note. Goldman analysts said the authorities' comfort with its strength has them expecting it to hit 7 per dollar by year-end and keep rising to 6.85 in a year's time. The yuan traded at 7.1068 per dollar on Monday. The PBOC has been fixing the midpoint, which allows the spot rate to fluctuate a maximum 2% on either side, firmer than market projections since last November. The average gap between the official midpoint and Reuters' market-based estimates stood at 327 pips since April, while yuan adoption has been gaining momentum. Since the last survey in 2022, this year's Bank for International Settlements figures show a near 60% increase in the daily turnover in the dollar yuan pair to $781 billion, which is a little over 8% of total daily currency trade. STORE OF VALUE The other part of the picture has been steadiness, thanks to what several separate market sources describe as the constant appearance of state banks selling yuan onshore and offshore. This has kept three-month realised volatility for USD/CNY hovering near decade lows. Analysts say it encourages exporters to gradually sell down some of the roughly $1 trillion pile of dollars on deposit, chipping away at a long-standing risk to yuan stability. Commercial banks purchased a net $17.7 billion of foreign exchange from clients in October, data shows, a sixth straight month of surplus and suggesting an increase in dollar selling. To be sure, the signal is complicated by volatile export receipts, and, in any case, yuan strength has been uneven. The yuan has fallen 7.7% this year against the euro and is down 3% against a basket of trading partners' currencies (.CFSCNYI) , opens new tab. Most market participants also say internationalisation at scale won't happen until China loosens its control over the flow of capital across its borders - an unlikely move in the near term. Still, the price and momentum have caught markets' attention. "The government's inclination to keep the yuan value stable while allowing gradual appreciation should gain trust in the yuan as a store of value," said Shuang Ding, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered. "This intention appears to be supported by China's trade competitiveness and the authorities' proven record of managing capital flow volatility." https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-ambitions-behind-yuans-steady-rise-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 22:56

Fed divided on December rate cut, recent comments favor reduction Fed still will not have data delayed by the shutdown available January decision more uncertain, based on upcoming information WASHINGTON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The job market is weak enough to warrant another quarter-point rate cut in December, though action beyond that depends on an upcoming flood of data delayed by the government shutdown, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday. Since the last Fed meeting, "most of the private sector and anecdotal data that we've gotten is that nothing has really changed. The labor market is soft. It's continuing to weaken," with inflation expected to ease, Waller said on Fox Business' Mornings with Maria. Sign up here. While that makes a December cut appropriate, "January could be a little trickier, because we're going to get a flood of data that's released. If it is kind of consistent with what we've seen, then you can make the case for January. But if it suddenly shows a rebound in inflation or jobs or the economy's taking off, then it might give concern" about more cuts, Waller said. Fed officials are divided over whether to cut rates again at the December meeting, though recent comments from top policymakers - including New York Fed President John Williams on Friday - have shifted market expectations strongly in favor of another quarter-point reduction at their December 9-10 meeting. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the futures-market-implied probability of a quarter point reduction to a range of 3.50% to 3.75% is now about 83%, roughly double what it had been a week ago. The Fed will remain information-constrained at that session, with government statistical agencies still digging through the backlog of work from the 43-day shutdown that ended November 14. The Bureau of Labor Statistics already has said it will not release a jobs or consumer inflation report for October, while the reports for November will not become public until after the Fed meets. In the absence of those keystone data releases, officials are relying more heavily on information from private providers and on their own contacts in businesses and households around the country. Much of that information is compiled into a compendium known as the Beige Book that is released two weeks prior to each Fed meeting, with the next version due out on Wednesday. "The labor market is still weak and ... we're getting no evidence telling me it's rebounding," Waller said. He downplayed the recently released September jobs report, showing the economy added a more-than-expected 119,000 jobs that month, as likely to be revised lower. The September report also showed the unemployment rate rose to 4.4% from 4.3% the month before. One other policymaker joined Waller in voicing that concern on Monday. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who had been on the fence over whether to support a third consecutive rate cut next month, told the Wall Street Journal she now backs a reduction. “On the labor market, I don’t feel as confident we can get ahead of it,” she said in an interview Monday. “It’s vulnerable enough now that the risk is it’ll have a nonlinear change.” Daly, who does not have a vote on policy this year but like all Fed policymakers has a voice at the debate during meetings, now views an inflation surge as a lower risk. By the time of the next meeting on January 27-28, however, Waller, Daly and their colleagues should be able to better gauge which of two views of the economy are starting to materialize - the one where inflation stays persistent with a risk of moving higher, a possibility that has led several regional reserve bank presidents to oppose further rate cuts, or the one where job growth remains weak and the unemployment rate increases, the outcome Waller finds most concerning. Fed officials at the upcoming meeting will issue new economic projections that could reset expectations for any rate reductions next year. Policymakers were divided on the outlook in September, with the median official seeing only one further rate hike in 2026. Investors currently anticipate two to three cuts next year, according to data from the CME Group's FedWatch. By the next meeting, the Fed should have in hand official estimates for jobs, the unemployment rate, and inflation through December. "You may see a more of a meeting-by-meeting approach once you get to January," Waller said. "But I still don't think the labor market is going to turn around in the next six to eight weeks." https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-waller-december-cut-is-appropriate-action-january-more-uncertain-given-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 22:51

Co warns of one-month output shortfall on Kalgoorlie disruption Finished goods output at Malaysian facility to be affected Canaccord Genuity cuts revenue forecast for December quarter Nov 25 (Reuters) - Lynas Rare Earths (LYC.AX) , opens new tab warned on Tuesday of a one-month production shortfall this quarter due to significant power supply disruptions at its Kalgoorlie processing facility in Western Australia. The production shortfall could be a potential setback for the world's largest rare earths producer outside China as it tries to ramp up output amid a growing push from countries to reduce their reliance on China. Sign up here. Lynas said its Kalgoorlie facility faced a substantial rise in power supply disruptions in 2025, with outages in November resulting in a significant loss in mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC) production. The company expects the disruptions to impact production of finished goods at its Malaysian facility this quarter. MREC produced in Kalgoorlie is processed at Lynas Malaysia's , opens new tab advanced materials plant in the industrial town of Gebeng. "Lynas is working constructively with the WA government and Western Power to identify causes of recent outages and options to improve power availability to the Lynas plant," the company said. "Whilst these are being progressed on an urgent basis, even on a best-case scenario, they will not be in place in time to improve this quarter's forecast production." Lynas recorded total rare earth oxide output of 3,993 metric tons and neodymium and praseodymium (NdPr) output of 2,003 tons for the September quarter. It reported sales revenue of A$200.2 million ($129.19 million) for the quarter. Analysts at Canaccord Genuity cut their NdPr production forecast for the December quarter to 1.8 kilotons (kt) from 2.7 kt previously expected. Revenue expectations were lowered to A$220 million from A$280 million. Shares of Lynas closed 0.1% lower at A$15.02 after falling more than 2% earlier in the session. The broader benchmark index (.AXJO) , opens new tab edged 0.1% higher. ($1 = 1.5497 Australian dollars) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/australias-lynas-warns-production-shortfall-kalgoorlie-after-power-disruptions-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 22:25

NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Alden Bentley, Editor in Charge, Americas Finance and Markets Sign up here. Jamie is enjoying some well-deserved time off, but the Reuters markets team will still keep you up to date on what animated markets today: primarily strengthened confidence about a December Federal Reserve cut. I'd love to hear from you so please feel free to reach out at [email protected] , opens new tab Today's Key Market Moves Today's Key Reads Wall Street rallies on tech rebound, rising rate cut bets Stocks jump, US yields dip as Fed rate cut bets rise Wall Street slump could secure Fed rate cut Deutsche Bank sees S&P 500 rising to 8,000 by end of 2026 Record US Black Friday crowds to find fewer bargains amid high prices Reanimated about December Fed cut Investors paraded back into U.S. stocks after last week's bull market reset, emboldened by the latest remarks by influential Federal Reserve officials. Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday told Fox Business that available data indicate labor conditions are weak enough to justify a quarter-point cut when the Federal Open Market Committee meets in two weeks, reinforcing dovish comments by New York Fed President John Williams that helped reverse last week's selloff on Friday. Rate futures markets place the odds of a quarter-point cut on December 10 at 67%, up from less than even last week. The Magnificent Seven mega caps were all in recovery mode, overriding concerns that rattled sentiment about excessive valuations and debt financing of the artificial intelligence spending spree. More delayed data trickles out on Tuesday with the Producer Prices Index and Retail Sales from September that did not get released during the government shutdown. Given the Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, early stock and bond closes on Friday, and the proximity of December book closings, large swings either way should not come as a surprise. Black Friday's shopping deals will provide the first inkling of how retailers at least will fare going into year-end. Market action was not broadly risk-on, however, with safe-haven gold and Treasuries also gaining, along with crude oil. The dollar index , (.DXY) , opens new tab meanwhile slipped, although the greenback was solid against the beleaguered yen, after Takuji Aida, an adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, said on Sunday that Japan can actively intervene in the currency market. What could move markets tomorrow? Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-trading-day-2025-11-24/