2025-11-24 15:49

MEXICO CITY, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Mexico's annual inflation rate stood above expectations at 3.61% in the first half of November, official data showed on Monday, affected by sticky core inflation. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast an annual rate of 3.56%. Sign up here. Mexico's central bank board members expect the current weakness of Mexico's economy would reduce inflation, but underlying price pressures pushing core inflation have been a pressing worry. The closely watched core price index, which strips out some volatile food and energy prices, reached 4.32% in the 12 months through early November, from 4.24% in the same period last month. "Core inflation, which determines the trajectory of headline inflation in the medium and long term, shows no clear signs of slowing down," Banco Base economic analysis director Gabriela Siller said in a post on X. Despite persistent core inflation, Citi expects Mexico's central bank to cut their benchmark interest rate 25 basis points in December, but "rate cuts afterwards will be more data dependent," analysts said in a note. Month-on-month, official data showed core inflation at 0.4%, helped by "downside pressure in core inflation associated to the discount campaign 'El Buen Fin'," according to Citi. The so-called El Buen Fin offered shopping promotions in Mexico and took place from November 13 to 17. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexicos-persistent-core-inflation-fuels-annual-price-rises-early-november-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 14:26

MUMBAI, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The Indian central bank sold a net of $7.91 billion in the foreign exchange market in September, data released on Monday showed, as the Reserve Bank of India stepped up efforts to curb a slide in the currency. The RBI said it purchased $ 2.2 billion and sold $10.11 billion, as it stepped in to support the currency which fell to its then all-time low of 88.80. In August, the central bank had sold a net of $7.7 billion. Sign up here. Trade tensions between India and the United States alongside a jump in gold and silver imports exerted pressure on the currency in September. The pressures have since lingered as a trade deal between New Delhi and Washington has remained elusive, pushing the rupee to fresh all-time lows. The currency hit a record low of 89.49 on November 21, down 4.5% year-to-date. The RBI's net outstanding forward and futures dollar sales stood at $59.4 billion as of end-September, marking its first rise in six months. The central bank intervenes in the spot and forwards market to curb exchange rate volatility. The rupee's recent depreciation has occurred due to penal tariffs on Indian exports and a good trade deal should help relieve pressure on the country's current account, Reserve Bank of India Governor Sanjay Malhotra said at an event last week. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-cenbank-net-sold-79-billion-september-halt-rupees-slide-bulletin-shows-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 13:43

WARSAW, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Poland must prioritise curbing the rapid increase in its public debt, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday, adding that it sees rising fiscal vulnerabilities over the medium term. Strong growth in central Europe's largest economy, driven by wage gains and loose fiscal policy, has come partly at the expense of a sharply worse fiscal position, the IMF said, with Poland running one of the highest budget deficits in Europe. Sign up here. "Staff now assesses Poland's risk of sovereign debt stress to be at medium compared to low in our previous assessment," the IMF said in a statement. It said a widening in Poland's deficit was largely due to a surge in expenditure, which was now on a par with levels in advanced European economies, while revenues remained closer to those of peers in Central and Eastern Europe. It said Poland's economic outlook was strong, with growth likely accelerating to 3.4% next year from the 3.2% expected in 2025, driven by faster EU-funded investments. Even so, the deficit would ease only marginally amid political gridlock. "We see rising fiscal vulnerabilities over the medium term, despite a relatively strong growth outlook," the IMF said. "Arresting the rapid rise in public debt should be a priority. Specifically, we recommend a cumulative fiscal adjustment of 4% of GDP by 2030, which is 2% of GDP more than in our baseline projection." It said the recommended fiscal path would bring the medium-term deficit to 3% of output and stabilise public debt at what it called a "relatively high" 70% of gross domestic product. The IMF also said that, after rate cuts worth 150 basis points this year, Poland's central bank should consider slowing the pace of monetary easing. "We would advocate a wait-and-see approach to allow time to observe incoming data and seeing sustained disinflation towards the target. If core inflation continues to moderate, further easing might be possible." https://www.reuters.com/business/imf-says-poland-must-prioritise-curbing-increase-debt-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 13:06

Deutsche Bank expects 21% rise HSBC targets 7,500 Both brokerages bet on AI momentum Nov 24 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank on Monday projected the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab index to climb to 8,000 by the end of next year, citing strong corporate earnings and artificial intelligence-driven gains, making it the most bullish among major global brokerages. The European brokerage's target implies a massive 21% upside to the index's last close of 6,602.99. It also forecasts S&P 500 earnings-per-share to hit $320. Sign up here. In a separate note on Monday, Britain's HSBC set its 2026 year-end target at 7,500, also betting on AI strength. The benchmark index has gained about 12.3% this year, spurred broadly by investor optimism around AI, robust corporate profits and expectations of falling interest rates, despite fears of a market bubble and high tech valuations. "Bubble or not – history shows that rallies can last for quite some time (3-5 years in the dot-com/housing boom), so we see more to come and recommend a broadening of the AI trade," HSBC analysts said. Mega-cap tech names such as Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab, Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab and Alphabet (GOOGL.O) , opens new tab remain the main engines of the rally, as AI-driven spending underpins record levels of capital expenditure. "Rapid AI investment and adoption will continue to dominate market sentiment," Deutsche Bank strategists said in their 2026 global outlook note. "We see (U.S.) discretionary investor positioning as a source of potential market upside." Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley forecast U.S. stocks to outperform peers next year and estimated the index to hit 7,800 by end of 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/deutsche-bank-sees-sp-500-rising-8000-by-end-2026-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 12:50

Gupta accuses Trafigura staff of devising fraudulent scheme Former Trafigura trader denies involvement in alleged $600 million fraud Trafigura admits oversight in verifying nickel authenticity LONDON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Trafigura's former head nickel trader denied allegations by Indian businessman Prateek Gupta on Monday in a London trial that he helped devise a $600 million fraud to swap expensive metals for cheap or worthless ones. Geneva-based Trafigura sued Gupta over two years ago, alleging he was the mastermind of a fraud in which he and his companies agreed to provide high-quality 99.8% pure nickel but delivered steel or scrap instead. Sign up here. Gupta, based in Dubai, has retorted that Trafigura staff devised the scheme, coming up with a complex merry-go-round of transactions that would appear to inflate its standing in nickel trading. "I did not devise, know of, or participate in any such arrangement," Sokratis Oikonomou, who became head of nickel trading at Trafigura in 2017, told a London High Court trial in a written witness statement. "I am insulted by the suggestion that I would sacrifice my integrity and jeopardise my career to devise and propose such a plan." Trafigura terminated his employment in January 2023 after around 16 years with the company. EVIDENCE AND INTERNAL PROBE In December 2023, Gupta and his lawyers produced chat exchanges and emails with Trafigura staff that he alleges are proof that he was not alone in the operation. Trafigura has previously said it looked into whether staff colluded with Gupta, but was satisfied by their denials. Gupta said Oikonomou proposed in May 2019 to boost nickel trading between Trafigura and Gupta's firms to 50,000 metric tons a year, but Gupta said he replied that there was not enough high-grade nickel and proposed to include scrap and alloys. Oikonomou rejected trading low-grade nickel in the open, because Trafigura's bank Citi would only finance high-grade nickel, Gupta said. Citi has declined to comment on the fraud case. Gupta alleged that Oikonomou proposed a "transit financing" operation, in which some Gupta-owned or linked companies would sell nickel to Trafigura and other Gupta-associated firms would buy them back when they arrived at ports to ensure others did not discover the substitution. Trafigura has acknowledged that the two parties operated a transit financing operation, but denies it was devised to surreptitiously trade low-grade nickel or cheap metals. Trafigura has also acknowledged it paid for what it thought was pure nickel without verifying its authenticity, but said the lack of valid documents, commodity codes and testing was an oversight. Gupta remains subject to a freezing order on his assets, which Gupta unsuccessfully sought to lift in December 2023. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/trafiguras-former-top-nickel-trader-denies-he-colluded-600-million-fraud-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 12:39

USDA head Rollins expects farmer aid package announcement within two weeks American Farm Bureau Federation says aid 'urgently needed' Rollins confident in China's commitment to soybean purchases WASHINGTON, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The Trump administration expects to announce an aid package for U.S. farmers within two weeks and a deal on Chinese soybean purchases, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Monday without providing further details. The administration of President Donald Trump has said for months that it would issue aid for farmers hit by low crop prices and trade disputes, but has not yet issued any plan or amount for the aid. U.S. farmers lost billions in soybean sales this year as top buyer China turned to Brazil and Argentina amid tense trade talks with Washington. Sign up here. "We'll have an announcement probably in the next week or two on what that's going to look like," Rollins, the head of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, told CNBC of the farmer aid. The American Farm Bureau Federation said on Monday that the aid is "urgently needed" as farmers face the compounding pressures of higher input costs and lower crop prices. In October, after Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of American soybeans through January, according to the Trump administration. China purchased nearly 1.6 million metric tons of soybeans over three days last week, its largest single-week tally in two years, buoying crop prices. Two cargo vessels were en route to grain terminals near New Orleans on Monday to load with China's first U.S. soybean shipments since May, according to a shipping schedule seen by Reuters. Asked about China's commitments to buy U.S. soybeans, Rollins said: "We've got a significant way to go." "I know they are inking the deal this week or next week," Rollins said, adding that she was confident China would honor its purchase commitments. "Every sign is their commitment remains true that they will indeed buy, or purchase, 12 million metric tons or put the order in," she said. "Even if the purchase order comes in before the end of December, those will move early next year," she added. Trump said in a Monday post on Truth Social that he and Xi had discussed soybeans and other farm products in a phone call and that they had "done a good, and very important, deal for our Great Farmers." The Chinese embassy did not immediately respond to a request for comment. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/deals-farmer-aid-chinese-soybean-purchases-coming-within-weeks-usda-chief-says-2025-11-24/