2025-11-24 06:25

US officials Lutnick and Greer set for Brussels talks EU ministers gather ahead of that meeting Trade Commissioner Sefcovic expects no immediate breakthrough BRUSSELS, Nov 24 (Reuters) - European Union ministers on Monday were set to urge top U.S. trade officials to apply more of the July EU-U.S. trade deal by cutting U.S. tariffs on EU steel and removing them from EU goods such as wine and spirits. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were due to meet EU ministers responsible for trade for 90 minutes over lunch in their first trips to Brussels since taking office. Sign up here. Ahead of that meeting, the European ministers gathered to discuss pressing trade issues, including Chinese rare earth and chip export restrictions. NO IMMEDIATE BREAKTHROUGHS EXPECTED European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic said he did not expect any immediate breakthroughs with his U.S. counterparts. "I think today it's not about negotiations. It's about a stock-taking exercise. And I think this is also about the political assessment of EU-U.S. bilateral relations," he said. Under the end-July deal, the United States set 15% tariffs on most EU goods, while the European Union agreed to remove many of its duties on U.S. imports. That may only happen in March or April, given it requires approval from the European Parliament and EU governments, which EU diplomats say has exasperated Washington. But while insisting the process is on course, the 27-nation bloc is also pointing to agreed items on which it wants to see progress, chief among them steel and aluminium. The United States has a 50% tariff on the metals and since mid-August has applied this to the metal content in 407 "derivative" products such as motorcycles and refrigerators. More derivatives may be added next month. RISK THAT JULY ACCORD GETS HOLLOWED OUT EU diplomats say that such actions, along with the prospect of new tariffs on trucks, critical minerals, planes and wind turbines, threaten to hollow out the July accord. "We're at a delicate moment," one EU diplomat said. "The U.S. is looking for reasons to criticise the EU as we are trying to get them to work on steel and other unresolved matters." The bloc also wants a broader range of its products subject only to low pre-Trump duties. Its wish list includes wine and spirits, olives, pasta, medical devices and biotech. The EU is also ready to discuss areas of possible regulatory cooperation, such as cars, the bloc's purchases of U.S. energy, which has hit $200 billion this year, and joint efforts on economic security, particularly in response to Chinese export controls. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eu-urge-us-apply-more-july-trade-deal-including-cutting-steel-tariffs-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 05:44

Oil prices rise amid US rate cut speculation and Ukraine peace deal uncertainty Fed Governor Waller suggests rate cut amid weak U.S. job market US sanctions on Russian oil firms affect market, peace talks dominate focus NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Oil prices climbed about 1% on Monday on increased bets of a U.S. interest rate cut in December and mounting doubts about whether Russia will get a peace deal with Ukraine that will boost Moscow's oil exports. Brent futures rose 81 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $63.37 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 78 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $58.84. Sign up here. On Friday, both crude benchmarks closed at their lowest levels since October 21. The U.S. and Ukraine sought to narrow the gaps in a peace plan to end the Russia-Ukraine war after a U.S. proposal that Kyiv and its European allies viewed as a Kremlin wish list. Recent price weakness was driven mainly by reported progress in Ukraine–Russia peace negotiations, analysts at energy advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note. "However, we feel that a reduction of more than 5% of risk premium is excessive," they added, pointing to the potential for the war to drag on, re-injecting geopolitical risk into oil futures. U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies Rosneft (ROSN.MM) , opens new tab and Lukoil (LKOH.MM) , opens new tab, which took effect on Friday, have caused friction that would normally boost prices, but the market is preoccupied by the peace talks, said Jorge Montepeque, managing director at Onyx Capital. Russian state oil and gas revenue could fall in November by around 35% year-on-year to 520 billion roubles ($6.59 billion), owing to cheaper oil and a stronger rouble, Reuters calculations showed on Monday. European Council President Antonio Costa hailed the "new momentum" in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine and pledged that the European Union will keep supporting Ukraine. U.S. INTEREST RATES U.S. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said available data indicates that the U.S. job market remains weak enough to warrant another quarter-point cut. Lower rates could boost economic growth and oil demand. Global brokerages remain split on whether the Fed will cut interest rates at its December meeting after last week's mixed signals on job growth and unemployment. In Germany, business morale fell unexpectedly in November, a survey showed, as companies grew more pessimistic about chances of economic recovery. JPMorgan forecast Brent crude at $57 a barrel and WTI at $53 in 2027 while keeping its 2026 estimates unchanged at $58 and $54 respectively. AROUND THE WORLD The U.S. formally designated Venezuela's Cartel de los Soles as a foreign terrorist organization, layering additional terrorism-related sanctions on the group it has said includes President Nicolas Maduro and other high-ranking officials. U.S. sanctions on Venezuela, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), help support oil prices by limiting the South American country's exports. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump said he had a "very good" phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The leaders discussed the war in Ukraine, fentanyl trafficking and a deal for farmers. Energy traders see positive discussions between the world's two biggest economies as supportive of oil demand. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-falls-ukraine-peace-talks-edge-toward-solution-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 05:34

MUMBAI, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India stepped in aggressively on Monday to slow the downward pressure on the rupee that had built up after the local currency slipped past a key level on Friday and brought the psychological 90-mark into focus. The rupee was last trading at 89.16 per U.S. dollar, up 0.35% on the day. Sign up here. Before the 9 a.m. IST open, the interbank order-matching system had pointed to a drop past 89.50 to a new all-time low. However, that changed once the RBI stepped in. The central bank likely sold dollars on the order-matching platform and in the non-deliverable forward market, helping lift sentiment. On the back of that, the rupee opened at 89.15. The Indian currency had broken past 88.80 on Friday, a level bankers say the RBI had held for weeks, setting off a wave of pressure expected to carry through this week. Following Friday's slump, conversations turned to the risk of a swift push toward the 90 level, bankers said. The central bank's aggressive dollar sales on Monday were widely seen an effort to stop the rupee's move before it picked up pace. A senior treasury official at a private sector bank said the backdrop was "very heavy" for the rupee currently, noting that there was no catalyst yet to settle sentiment around the currency. The lack of progress on a U.S.-India trade agreement has further weighed on sentiment, traders said, depriving the market of a policy boost that could have helped offset India's widening trade deficit and the subdued pace of portfolio inflows. HDFC Bank echoed the cautious tone, saying any lift from a potential U.S.-India trade announcement could prove short-lived Meanwhile, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Thursday attributed , opens new tab the rupee's recent weakness to higher dollar demand, which he said could abate if India and the U.S. agree a trade deal. India's foreign reserves offer "ample protection" for the currency, he added. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-central-bank-likely-intervenes-prop-up-rupee-before-local-market-open-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 05:31

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee It's been a slow start to the week in Asia with Japanese markets closed for a holiday on Monday, but currency traders are watching with bated breath for any signs of official yen buying from Tokyo to stem its slide. Sign up here. The trading week will be interrupted by the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, followed by Black Friday which will see shortened hours, opening a possible window for authorities to step in. Past interventions haven taken place during periods of low liquidity, allowing the authorities to move prices more sharply, or, as analysts put it, get the most "bang for their buck". In such cases, the Ministry of Finance decides when to step in and the Bank of Japan acts as its agent. The yen fell slightly on Monday in line with the broader market, and last stood at 156.62 per dollar. It remained pinned near last week's 10-month trough of 157.90, though the yen appears to have found a floor after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama ramped up verbal warnings of official yen buying on Friday. Japan can actively intervene in the currency market to mitigate the negative economic impact of a weak yen, Takuji Aida, a private-sector member of a key government panel, said in a television programme on public broadcaster NHK on Sunday. Elsewhere, stocks found much-needed reprieve after last week's beating, helped by comments from influential Federal Reserve policymaker John Williams who said on Friday that interest rates can fall "in the near term". That sent traders ramping up bets of further easing next month, with Fed funds futures now pointing to a 57% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. Still, with global equity markets in the midst of a grim month, attention will turn in the week ahead to holiday shopping trends and U.S. retail sales for signs of strength in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Over in Europe, focus will be on Britain's upcoming budget announcement, with Finance Minister Rachel Reeves seeking to reassure investors that the government can be trusted to be fiscally prudent while appeasing voters by honouring pre-election promises not to raise taxes on working people. Recent selling in bonds, sterling and bank shares shows markets on edge. The budget wait is almost over but UK market volatility is likely not. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: - German Ifo business sentiment (November) - France: Reopening of 3-month, 6-month and 11-month government debt auctions - Germany: Reopening of 7-month government debt auction https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 05:05

Fed's Waller says December cut appropriate Fed's Daly also says she supports easing next month US rate cut odds at 80% for December meeting Yen intervention possible in holiday-thinned week NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar dipped on Monday, as investors weighed dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials that boosted expectations for a rate cut next month and limited the greenback's upside against major currencies. The U.S. currency, however, rose against the yen, as investors remained on the lookout for signs of official buying from Tokyo to stem the slide in the Japanese currency. Sign up here. Volume was thinner than normal due to a holiday in Japan and a holiday-thinned week in the U.S. with the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. In afternoon trading, the euro rose 0.1% against the dollar to $1.1526, which put the dollar index down 0.1% at 100.15 . Against the Swiss franc, the dollar slid 0.1% to 0.8079 franc . The dollar slightly extended its fall after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that available data showed the U.S. job market remains weak enough to warrant another quarter-point rate cut at the U.S. central bank's December 9-10 policy meeting. His remarks followed those of New York Fed President John Williams on Friday who said that the U.S. central bank can still cut interest rates "in the near term" without putting its inflation goal at risk. Following their comments, Fed fund futures have increased the chances of an interest rate cut of a quarter-point next month to 80%, from 30% before their remarks, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Several regional Fed governors, however, argued for delaying further easing until there is clear evidence that inflation is on track to fall to the Fed's 2% target from a still-elevated level. "There's a bifurcation within the Fed right now -- those focusing on backward-looking data versus those that are forward-looking," said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp in New Jersey. "Certainly, interest rate fundamentals move currencies." He noted, though, that there were times that the dollar has not moved in line with expectations -- when the Fed is cutting rates, the dollar should be falling. Markets are also gearing up for potential catalysts, including the release of U.S. retail sales and producer prices data due later in the week. YEN WOES, STERLING FLAT The yen fell against the dollar, which rose 0.2% to 156.755 yen, just shy of its 10-month high hit last week of 157.90. . Japan's currency has been sliding on a combination of looser fiscal policies and some of the lowest interest rates in the world, prompting traders to ask whether Japanese authorities might step in to stop their currency weakening further. The yen, however, managed to gain some ground last Friday, bouncing from 10-month lows after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stepped up verbal intervention warnings to stem the currency's decline. Traders see a risk of intervention somewhere between 158 and 162 yen per dollar, with Thanksgiving-thinned trade on Thursday a possible window for authorities to step in. Japan can actively intervene in the currency market to mitigate the negative economic impact of a weak yen, Takuji Aida, a private-sector member of a key government panel, said in a television program on public broadcaster NHK on Sunday. "I think if Japan wanted to intervene, this would have been a good day to do it and would have caught the market by surprise with Japan on holiday," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global in New York. "The fact that they did not intervene today suggested that the bar is still high for intervention." In other currency pairs, sterling was marginally higher at $1.3108 against the dollar ahead of Wednesday's budget announcement. Finance minister Rachel Reeves is seeking a balance between spending to support faltering growth and demonstrating to investors that Britain can meet its fiscal targets. Cryptocurrency markets, meanwhile, steadied over the weekend. Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $88,495.19 , lifted by more Fed officials' easing remarks on Monday. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated her view that she supports a December rate cut, noting that she's not confident that the central bank can get ahead of a weak labor market. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-steady-thanksgiving-looms-yen-test-2025-11-24/

2025-11-24 04:56

MUMBAI, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee posted its biggest one-day gain in a month on Monday as central bank intervention helped it rebound from near its all-time low, even as traders expect the currency to tilt more towards depreciation in the near-term. The rupee ended at 89.23 against the U.S. dollar, up 0.3% from its close at 89.48 in the previous session. The currency has declined more than 4% so far in 2025 and hit an all-time low of 89.49 on Friday. Sign up here. While the central bank's presence blunted the immediate pressure on the currency, market participants anticipate a continuing downward bias for the rupee in the absence of a breakthrough in U.S.-India trade negotiations. The Reserve Bank of India likely intervened before the local spot market opened on Monday, and intermittently thereafter, helping the currency hold above its all-time low, traders said. "RBI may have thought it more prudent to conserve ammunition and intervene at higher levels in USD/INR instead of going all in at 88.80 itself," FX advisory firm IFA Global said in a note. The firm holds a mildly bearish outlook on the currency and expects it to hover in a 88-89.50 range over the next 6 weeks. The wait for a trade deal with the U.S. in the meantime has hurt trade and portfolio flows into India, exerting pressure on the currency even as the domestic economy remains resilient. India's GDP growth data for the July-September quarter is due on Friday. Elsewhere, the dollar index was down modestly at 100.1 while Asian currencies traded mixed. Currencies had a muted reaction to a bounce-back in wagers on a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve next month and to peace plans related to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. "We think the combination of promising Ukraine peace talks and the Beige Book poses downside risks to the dollar this week," analysts at ING said in a note. The Fed's Beige Book contains a summary of business and labour conditions across the U.S. and will be in focus for cues on the central bank's interest rate path. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-likely-feel-after-effects-breakdown-asia-peers-compound-pressure-2025-11-24/