2025-05-01 06:05

IMF sees sharp growth slowdown in 2025 for non-GCC oil exporters GCC economies projected to strengthen despite slower growth pace Conflicts severely impact MENA's oil importing economies, IMF says DUBAI, May 1 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund said on Thursday it now expects Middle East and North Africa economies to grow by just 2.6% in 2025 as uncertainties stemming from a global trade war and weaker oil prices weigh on the region. The fresh projection marked a sharp downgrade from its October projection of 4% growth and comes as the region grapples with geopolitical tensions, softer external demand and oil market volatility. Sign up here. "Uncertainty could impact the real economy, consumption, investment... all these elements led to a softening of our projections," Jihad Azour, the IMF's director for the Middle East and Central Asia department, told Reuters in an interview. "The direct impact of the tariff measures is limited because the integration in terms of trade between the region and the U.S. is limited." The IMF also pointed to a gradual recovery in oil production, protracted regional conflicts, and delayed structural reforms, particularly in Egypt, in its latest Regional Economic Outlook report released in Dubai. "The ongoing conflicts in the MENA region have inflicted profound humanitarian costs and left deep economic scars," it said in the report, adding that the impact has been severe for the region's oil importing economies. The MENA non-oil importers are now expected to see real GDP growth of 3.4% in 2025, versus an earlier forecast of 3.6%. DIVERGING OUTLOOKS Growth among non-Gulf Cooperation Council oil exporters is expected to slow by one percentage point in 2025 - a sharp downward revision - before staging a modest recovery in 2026. On the other hand, GCC economies are projected to strengthen, though at a slower pace than anticipated in October, amid extended OPEC+ voluntary production cuts through April, a gradual phase-out by end-2026, and weaker non-oil activity. "With all these changes and challenges, it's important also to seek new trade partnerships," Azour said, referring to the GCC, a bloc comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. IMF projects GCC's GDP growth for 2025 at 3%, down from its October forecast of a 4.2% increase. GCC countries have stepped up efforts to diversify their economies, with major initiatives like Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and the UAE’s push into tourism, logistics and manufacturing aimed at reducing reliance on hydrocarbons. "Trade diversification, acceleration of structural reforms, and improvement of productivity are all elements that will help the non-oil sector to maintain a strong level of growth," Azour said. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/imf-trims-2025-middle-east-north-africa-growth-forecast-26-global-risks-mount-2025-05-01/

2025-05-01 06:03

LITTLETON, Colorado, May 1 (Reuters) - U.S. exports of LNG so far this year have surged by over 20% from the same period a year ago, driven mainly by purchases by European nations, which accounted for over three quarters of total U.S. orders. Total U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments during January through April were 34.6 million metric tons, according to trade intelligence firm Kpler, which was by far the highest volume total ever for that period. Sign up here. European nations accounted for 26.5 million tons or 77% of the total volumes shipped out by U.S. sellers. Purchases by Europe were up 49% from the first four months of 2024, and suggest that European gas users and traders were at least partly attempting to appease U.S. President Trump by snapping up U.S. cargoes during tariff negotiations. The highest European gas-fired power generation total in four years during the opening quarter of 2025 also likely supported the region's robust LNG imports. Europe's relatively low gas inventories - which are currently around 33% below year-ago levels - also likely fuelled the strong LNG import appetite, and will remain a key driver of regional LNG import interest in the months ahead. TOP DESTINATIONS France, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands were the top three buyers of U.S. LNG during January to April, and together accounted for nearly 35% of total purchases. France's imports were the highest from the U.S. on record for the January to April period, at 4.8 million tons, while UK and Netherlands volumes were slightly below previous peaks. Other major Europe-based buyers included Turkey (with a record 3.2 million tons), Spain, Italy and Poland, which all sharply lifted gas-fired power output during the first quarter of 2025 compared to early 2024. Other notable European buyers included Germany, Belgium, Greece and Lithuania, Kpler data showed. Europe's utilities and gas storage operators will likely remain regular gas buyers in the months ahead, in order to replenish drawn-down stockpiles during what is traditionally the weakest period for gas use on the continent. A majority of the purchases for stock building will likely be from pipelined supplies, which are substantially cheaper than LNG cargoes. However, LNG will likely remain in the mix for spot purchases by power generators, who have been grappling with reduced clean energy supplies so far in 2025 due to low wind speeds and reduced hydro power output. ASIAN WILT While Europe's LNG imports shot to new highs so far in 2025, Asia's purchases have headed in the opposite direction. Asia's total LNG imports of 4.91 million tons for the January through April window were the lowest for that period since 2019, and were 41% down from the same months last year. Relatively high international gas prices - especially compared to thermal coal - helped to curb Asian interest in LNG imports for far in 2025, although Asian spot LNG prices recently sank to 11-month lows amid weak buying interest. Sluggish economic activity across Asia - exacerbated by the new tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump - is expected to suppress overall industrial activity throughout Asia over the near term, and with it demand for gas. Outside of Asia, Egypt and Jordan both lifted U.S. LNG imports to a record for the January to April window, while purchases by Central and South American nations were down by around 22% from the same months in 2024. MIXED OUTLOOK Going forward, Europe will likely remain the dominant destination for U.S. LNG cargoes, especially while European nations are still trying to appease the Trump administration by increasing imports of U.S. products. Over the longer run, any extended spell of weak buying by Asia could become a major concern for U.S. gas exporters, as a protracted period of declining gas use there could further derail plans to build up gas infrastructure in the region. That could leave U.S. exporters overly reliant on Europe for LNG sales, and leave them vulnerable to a sharp drop in international demand if Europe's energy system continues to prioritise clean energy supply development over fossil fuels. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-lng-exports-surge-new-highs-strong-buying-by-europe-maguire-2025-05-01/

2025-05-01 04:52

Crypto enthusiasts gather for Dubai event Attendees have mixed feelings about Trump's impact on sector UAE keeps growing as crypto hub DUBAI, May 1 (Reuters) - Crypto enthusiasts descended on Dubai on Wednesday, gathering under the Gulf's scorching sun and hoping the industry's buoyant mood can keep going despite signs the euphoria around Donald Trump's crypto stance is ebbing. Speakers at the two-day event in the desert city include chief executives at some of the world's major crypto firms, the head of digital assets at BlackRock (BLK.N) , opens new tab and Goldman Sachs (GS.N) , opens new tab, as well as the U.S. president's son, Eric Trump, who is set to take the stage on Thursday. Sign up here. Once a crypto sceptic, the U.S. president has vowed to support the industry by easing regulatory curbs and has even launched his own cryptocurrency, in a turnaround for the industry after a series of crypto company collapses in 2022. Cryptocurrency prices surged to a record high after his election win, but have fallen this year. Bitcoin is down about 12% from its peak as the global trade war and industry concerns that the pace of pro-crypto regulation under Trump is slower than expected, knocked sentiment. Attendees at the TOKEN2049 conference, which is expected to attract around 15,000 people, thronged the venue, while a pair of camels rested unbothered by the loud tunes playing in the background. They shared mixed feelings about Trump's impact on the industry. "In the long term, it's going to be good for crypto, but it really relies on the world economy picking up again," said Miklos Veszpremi, the chief operating officer of a web3-integrated streaming platform. "I think that once the tariffs actually start hitting countries, there's going to be a lot of pain, and we might be headed towards some difficult times," he said. Still, the industry enjoyed a strong start to the year as money poured in. Global venture capital investments in crypto companies totalled $5.4 billion in the first quarter of 2025, its best quarter since mid-2022, according to data from PitchBook. Attendee Herbert R. Sim, wrapped in a bitcoin-themed jacket, said that predicting the impact of Trump policies on the crypto sector was very hard "but so far ... (progress) is on the regulation side of things." "Things are easing up in America," he said, as developers, investors and crypto fans weaved past packed industry marketing booths and joined queues to glide on outside zip lines. CRYPTO HUB The United Arab Emirates is quickly emerging as a key hub for crypto companies, with several setting up shop or seeking to expand. Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, announced in March that Abu Dhabi-backed investment group MGX had made a $2 billion crypto investment in it, deepening its ties with the UAE. The exchange's founder, Changpeng Zhao, who last year served four months in prison after pleading guilty to violating U.S. laws against money laundering, was welcomed to the main stage with cheers from the audience. Zhao stepped down as CEO of Binance as part of a $4.3 billion settlement with U.S. authorities but remains a major shareholder. UAE authorities continue to promote crypto adoption. Buyers for apartments in a new planned tower in Dubai the Trump Organization launched this week alongside a luxury real estate developer will be able to pay with bitcoin, Eric Trump said. Dubai's Emirates NBD bank recently launched crypto trading services on its digital arm Liv and one of the city's largest free zones, the DMCC, which hosts more than 600 crypto firms, plans to open a "crypto tower" in early 2027 to host more. "It's much easier to do business here," said Germany-based attendee Andre Liesenfeld, referring to Dubai. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/crypto-industry-descends-dubai-trump-euphoria-recedes-2025-05-01/

2025-05-01 03:21

SYDNEY, May 1 (Reuters) - Australia has boasted its best three-month run of exports to the United States as President Donald Trump's tariff policies sparked a rush to buy gold, turning a rare U.S. trade surplus into a deficit. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics out on Thursday showed Australian goods exports to the U.S. surged to A$16.7 billion ($10.71 billion) in the three months to March, triple the A$5.2 billion exported in the same period a year earlier. Sign up here. That saw Australia notch a goods surplus with the U.S. of A$4.1 billion in those three months, swinging from a deficit of A$6.2 billion the year before. Analysts say much of that reflected a huge jump in gold exports to the U.S. where buyers were stocking up on physical metal in case it too faced tariffs, and to cover positions in futures markets. Australia is one of the world's largest producers of the precious metal, which is classed as non-monetary gold when shipped as bars. Australia is also one of the few countries the U.S. normally runs a trade surplus with, a point often made by Australian negotiators arguing against Trump's imposition of 10% tariffs. The market mayhem caused by tariffs also spurred investor demand for gold as a safe haven, taking it to record highs. In Australian dollar terms, gold prices have climbed 19% so far this year, showering Australian miners with cash. The jump in gold exports, combined with a recovery in iron ore shipments from bad weather, widened Australia's seasonally adjusted goods surplus to A$6.9 billion in March alone, well above market forecasts of A$3.9 billion. Exports jumped 7.6% in March from February, thanks to a near 12% rebound in iron ore and a 26% rise in non-monetary gold shipments. Imports fell 2.2%, led mainly by a pullback in capital goods. ($1 = 1.5596 Australian dollars) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-boasts-rare-trade-surplus-with-us-gold-frenzy-2025-05-01/

2025-05-01 00:46

TOKYO, May 1 (Reuters) - Japan, China, South Korea and ASEAN countries are expected to expand their emergency currency swap programme as early as this month to include infectious disease outbreaks and natural disasters, Nikkei Asia reported on Thursday. A currency swap arrangement known as the Chiang Mai Initiative, created after the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, exists to support regional financial stability by allowing members to tap currency swap lines to support currencies in need. Sign up here. The expansion came as some countries faced foreign currency shortages during the COVID pandemic, Nikkei said. The members of the initiative are likely to agree on the expansion when their representatives meet in Milan, Italy, on Sunday, Nikkei said, adding that the change would likely take effect in May. The Chiang Mai Initiative pool amounts to $240 billion in foreign exchange reserves, with Japan and China each contributing $76.8 billion, South Korea providing $38.4 billion and the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members a combined $48 billion. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/japan-china-south-korea-asean-expand-currency-swap-programme-nikkei-says-2025-05-01/

2025-05-01 00:45

Trump says all Iranian oil purchases must stop Saudi willing to sustain lower prices for longer US economy contracts in Q1 amid trade policy disruptions HOUSTON, May 1 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled nearly 2% higher on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened secondary sanctions on Iran after a fourth round of U.S.-Iran talks was postponed. Brent crude futures settled at $62.13 a barrel, up $1.07, 1.8%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed $1.03, or 1.8%, higher at $59.24 a barrel. Sign up here. Trump said all purchases of Iranian oil or petrochemical products must stop and any country or person buying any from the country would be immediately subject to secondary sanctions. His comments follow the postponement of talks. which had been due to take place in Rome on Saturday, over Iran's nuclear program. A senior Iranian official told Reuters a new date will be set depending on the U.S. approach. "If the Trump administration is successful in enforcing secondary sanctions on the purchase of Iranian oil that could lead to a reduction in supply of about a million and a half, barrels per day," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. "These low prices of oil are giving the Trump administration cover to more strictly enforce those sanctions, especially at a time that OPEC+ is producing well over their quota and looking to increase production." Several OPEC+ members are set to suggest the group accelerates output hikes in June for a second consecutive month, three people familiar with OPEC+ talks have said. Eight OPEC+ countries will meet on May 5 to decide a June output plan. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is telling allies and industry experts that it is unwilling to prop up the oil market with supply cuts and can manage a prolonged period of low prices, sources told Reuters. On the demand side, however, the U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years in the first quarter, data showed on Wednesday, swamped by a flood of imports as businesses raced to avoid higher costs from tariffs and underscoring the disruptive impact of Trump's unpredictable trade policy. Trump's tariffs have made it probable the global economy will slip into recession this year, a Reuters poll suggested. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-take-breather-after-selloff-supply-worries-2025-05-01/