2025-05-08 12:33
LONDON, May 8 (Reuters) - OPEC oil output edged lower in April despite a scheduled output hike taking effect, a Reuters survey found, led by a cut in Venezuelan supply on renewed U.S. attempts to curb the flows and smaller drops in Iraq and Libya. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 26.60 million barrels per day last month, down 30,000 bpd from March's total, the survey showed on Thursday, with cuts by some producers offsetting higher Iranian supply. Sign up here. The reduction comes despite OPEC+, which comprises OPEC and its allies including Russia, beginning in April to unwind its most recent layer of output cuts. The group plans to accelerate the hikes in May and June, citing supportive market fundamentals such as low inventories. The full extent of the rises will depend partly on the impact of attempts by U.S. President Donald Trump to clamp down on supply from Iran and Venezuela. The biggest drop among OPEC members in April was from Venezuela, where exports declined as cargo cancellations to U.S. oil company Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab forced ships to return. Iraq, which is under pressure to boost compliance with OPEC+ output quotas, also curbed output, the survey found. There was little change in output from top producer Saudi Arabia, and in Gulf members the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, despite higher OPEC+ quotas for April. While the survey and March data provided by OPEC's secondary sources show the UAE and Iraq are pumping close to the quotas, other estimates, such as those of the International Energy Agency, suggest they are pumping significantly more. Among countries pumping more, Iran boosted exports in April, the survey found, and provided OPEC's largest output hike with the latest U.S. measures having little impact on output. The Reuters survey aims to track supply to the market and is based on flows data from financial group LSEG, information from other companies that track flows such as Kpler, and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-april-oil-output-edges-lower-despite-plans-hike-survey-finds-2025-05-08/
2025-05-08 12:33
BoE cuts rates by 25 bps Riksbank, Norges Bank signal easing to come Policymakers warn about growth hit from tariffs Fed tugged in opposite direction by unemployment, inflation FRANKFURT, May 8 (Reuters) - Europe's central banks stood in stark contrast to their U.S. counterpart on Thursday, cutting interest rates or hinting at policy easing to come, even as the Federal Reserve kept a steady hand overnight and left investors guessing about its next move. Most of the world's biggest central banks have been cutting borrowing costs this year due to slowing inflation, diverging from the Fed, normally the world's trendsetter, as the U.S. could now be facing an inflation surge from the fallout of a global trade war. Sign up here. Tariffs will disproportionately hit the U.S., the world’s largest consumer, as the new duties along with the sharp weakening of the dollar make imported goods more expensive. By contrast, the rest of the world could face slower inflation via weaker trade, a stronger currency against the dollar and lower energy costs. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at more easing, while Sweden's Riksbank and Norway's Norges Bank both said that rate cuts are likely coming, with all three citing tariffs as a threat to growth. The ECB, which only meets in early June, has also been preparing markets for its eighth rate cut in 13 months, arguing that inflation is now essentially on target and tariffs will hurt growth. By contrast, the Fed warned Wednesday evening that the turbulence could push up both inflation and unemployment, opposing forces that call for different policy responses, a hint that the world may be facing a lengthy wait for clearer guidance. "There's no real cost to our waiting at this point," Fed Chair Jerome Powell said. "There should be some increase in inflation, there should be some increase in unemployment. Those call for different responses." The BoE on the other hand saw no reason to wait as it cut its key rate to 4.25% and even debated a bigger move, warning that tariffs have increased uncertainty and will likely lower global growth. "The past few weeks have shown how unpredictable the global economy can be. That's why we need to stick to a gradual and careful approach to further rate cuts," BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said. Central banks in Norway and Sweden kept rates unchanged for now but both made explicit references to possible policy easing to come. "The uncertainty resulting from the new US trade policy may put downward pressure on inflation in Europe," the Riksbank said. "Short-term inflation expectations have risen in the United States, while they have fallen in the euro area." SHOCKS Most central banks, however, emphasized that trade shock is beyond what they are normally used to and they lack the tools to handle a rapidly changing situation that primarily impacts supply, rather than demand. The turbulence could drag the U.S. into a recession but that would be more akin to the pandemic, with the exception that it is largely driven by government officials, with the power to change course at will. "That’s very different from a typical recession caused by weakening demand," said Jean Boivin, the Head of the BlackRock Investment Institute. "It’s more akin to what we saw in the pandemic: supply disruptions quickly leading to a contraction, but activity can also pick up again quickly if and when those disruptions dissipate," Boivin added. The real issue for central banks is that any decision they take now impacts the economy on a 12- to 18-month horizon. But political decisions move much faster and banks have little visibility over what is to come. So their main job for now is to maintain financial market confidence and prevent any inflationary impact from tariffs becoming embedded. "One reason why few expect tariffs alone to create an inflationary cycle is that the FOMC intends to keep making it unprofitable," Steven Blitz at TS Lombard said. "Here, however, is where recession can begin," Blitz said. "Margin squeeze from higher tariffs and a limited ability to pass the price hike forward, eventually turns into a credit squeeze as firms appear less able to meet credit obligations -- and that eventually becomes layoffs." https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/central-banks-europe-keep-easing-agenda-even-fed-stays-firmly-hold-2025-05-08/
2025-05-08 12:31
BAMAKO, May 8 (Reuters) - Mali owes more than $94 million to the entity managing a dam which also provides power to Senegal and Mauritania, and the debt has become "a question of life and death" for its ability to continue operating, according to a letter seen by Reuters. The funding gap raises the spectre of more electricity supply problems in Mali, where outages in recent years have dented public support for the military government that took power following coups in 2020 and 2021. Sign up here. The Manantali dam and power plant came online in 2002 and has an installed capacity of 200 megawatts. More than half of what it produces goes to Mali while Senegal gets 33% and Mauritania gets 15%. Mali currently owes "an enormous amount of more than 54 billion CFA" francs ($94.12 million) to SOGEM, the entity that manages Manantali and several other projects, according to an April 25 letter from SOGEM to the director-general of Energie du Mali, Mali's electric utility. "It is now a question of life or death for our installations and for SOGEM," reads the letter signed by SOGEM's director-general, Mohamed Mahmoud Sid'Elemine. It is unclear if the debt stems from Manantali or other costs. However, a source at the utility told Reuters most of the debt was racked up in the last year. The utility did not immediately respond to a request for comment. The letter touts the Manantali project as a success story for regional cooperation that cost hundreds of billions of CFA francs to implement. Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger are members of the Alliance of Sahel States and announced last year they were leaving the West African economic and political bloc known as ECOWAS. ($1 = 573.7500 CFA francs) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/mali-pressed-pay-enormous-debt-regional-dam-document-says-2025-05-08/
2025-05-08 12:19
May 8 (Reuters) - India's Jindal Stainless (JIST.NS) , opens new tab said on Thursday a domestic trade body will soon seek anti-dumping duties on stainless steel imports from China and Vietnam, weeks after India levied a 12% temporary safeguard duty on some steel imports to support local mills. The earlier tariff move was aimed at helping Indian producers who were forced to scale down operations and consider job cuts due to a surge in cheaper shipments from China, South Korea, and Japan. Sign up here. Stainless steel was not included in the products covered by the temporary tariff. "Data shows that there is dumping happening from China and Vietnam," Managing Director Abhyuday Jindal said in a post-earnings call, adding that shipments from the countries were coming to India at "throwaway prices". "The threat is very clear," Jindal added. The O.P. Jindal Group company reported an 18% on-year rise in consolidated profit after tax to 5.9 billion rupees ($69.03 million) for the quarter ended March 31. Net revenue grew 8% to 101.98 billion rupees. Domestic sales rose to 92% of total revenue in the quarter from 89% a year earlier, while exports fell to 8% from 11%. However, the company said it is expecting exports volumes to grow by 30% in financial year 2025-26. The U.S. tariffs on steel gives the company a level-playing field with other countries in the export market, Jindal said. "We are expecting growth in the U.S. business due to the tariffs," he added. Earlier this year, U.S. President Donald Trump, imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium products from all countries. Additionally, Jindal Stainless' sales volumes grew 9% to 2.37 million tons in financial year 2025. It expects the volumes to grow at 9%-10% in fiscal 2026. ($1 = 85.4720 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/indias-stainless-steel-body-file-anti-dumping-petition-few-weeks-jindal-2025-05-08/
2025-05-08 11:53
May 8 (Reuters) - The Ukrainian parliament ratified a milestone minerals deal with the United States on Thursday, lawmakers said. A total of 338 parliamentarians voted in favor of ratification, and no one voted against, said Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the Ukrainian parliament's foreign affairs committee. Sign up here. The agreement grants the U.S. preferential access to Ukrainian mineral resources and paves a path for possible new military aid for Kyiv, although it lacks clear security guarantees. https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-ratifies-strategic-minerals-deal-with-us-2025-05-08/
2025-05-08 11:53
LONDON, May 8 (Reuters) - The Bank of England cut its main interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.25% on Thursday, though with an unexpected three-way split among policymakers as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs weigh on global economic growth. The BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 in favour of the decision to cut rates by a quarter point. Two members, Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor, voted for a bigger half-point cut while Chief Economist Huw Pill and external member Catherine Mann wanted to keep interest rates on hold. Sign up here. The BoE said it thought the increase in tariffs by the U.S. and other countries would weigh somewhat on British economic growth and push down on inflation in Britain but it stressed how unclear the outlook remained. MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: The benchmark FTSE 100 (.FTSE) , opens new tab index pared gains and was last up 0.3%. FOREX: Sterling rose against the dollar after the decision, last up 0.2% to $1.3320. BONDS AND MONEY MARKETS: Two-year gilt yields jumped and were last 7 bps higher at 3.88% . Traders were pricing in less than a 20% chance of a June cut and around 57 bps of total rate cuts by year-end. COMMENTS: PHILIP SHAW, CHIEF ECONOMIST, INVESTEC, LONDON: "It's no surprise that the committee as a whole voted to bring rates down, what perhaps was surprising that two members including chief economist Huw Pill preferred to leave rates unchanged." "That may reduce speculation as to a possible back-to-back reduction at next month’s meeting. Our base line case remains that we will see the next cut in August." LUKE BARTHOLOMEW, DEPUTY CHIEF ECONOMIST, ABERDEEN, LONDON: "The Monetary Policy Committee is clearly very divided on how policy should respond to the many shocks currently hitting the economy." "This is highly unusual and will make it hard for the Bank to send a clear signal to the market about the likely path of policy. But with the bank maintaining its guidance that further cuts will be 'gradual and careful', the chance of another cut in June probably have fallen significantly." "We still think the Bank will cut rates at least twice more later this year, but much like the Fed’s message yesterday, UK policymakers will want to see more data on how tariffs and domestic tax increases are being digested by the economy before moving decisively." ANDREW WISHART, SENIOR UK ECONOMIST, BERENBERG, LONDON: "The vote split was obviously more hawkish than expected with two members voting to keep on hold, I think, worried by how aggressive the rate cuts priced in by the market had become and also signs that core inflation is going to remain elevated as companies pass through quite a lot of the cost increases from the wage and tax increases in April." "But there was also something for the doves in the communications, because the Bank still expects inflation to drop back to 2% in the forecast, but compared to market pricing beforehand I think they ruled out moving to faster paced cuts by keeping the gradual language in there. "They will probably be on hold again in June and then reassess when we get to the August meeting." GEORGE BROWN, SENIOR ECONOMIST, SCHRODERS, LONDON: "Today’s decision came as no surprise to anyone. But going forward, the Bank of England has far less scope to cut rates than the market currently expects." "While Trump's tariffs will provide some marginal relief through lower goods prices, the fundamental issue for the UK is that it continues to face considerable capacity constraints. As such, inflation looks set to rise again later this year as a result of disappointing productivity and sticky wage growth." "To our minds, this is consistent with the Bank only taking interest rates as low as around 4% this rate-cutting cycle." JEREMY BATSTONE-CARR, STRATEGIST, RAYMOND JAMES INVESTMENT SERVICES, FRANCE: "As important for hard-pressed British households and businesses as today’s decision is, the bank is cautiously signalling it is likely to go further in coming months, looking past the strong likelihood that near-term inflationary pressures are likely to rise." "Lower rates are coming, but it may be autumn before the Old Lady feels confident enough in the outlook to ease borrowing costs again." JULIUS BENDIKAS, EUROPEAN HEAD OF ECONOMICS AND DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION, MERCER, LONDON: "The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee faces a tricky balancing act with inflation and wages still elevated. Global trade issues are likely to put downward pressure on both growth and inflation. We expect the Bank to keep cutting rates, reaching 3.5% or lower by 2026, as price and wage inflation moderate further." https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/view-boe-cuts-interest-rates-pound-yields-rise-after-surprise-vote-split-2025-05-08/
