2025-11-19 06:50
Japan PM sparked diplomatic crisis with Taiwan comments China urged citizens not to travel to Japan Boycott could cost Tokyo $14 bln annually, estimate shows Rift deepens as Tokyo resists Beijing's demand for retraction TOKYO, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Within days of China urging its citizens not to travel to Japan due to a diplomatic dispute, Tokyo-based tour operator East Japan International Travel Service had lost 80% of its bookings for the remainder of the year. The small firm, which specialises in group tours largely for Chinese clients, is at the sharp end of a backlash that threatens to deal a sizeable blow to Japan's economy, the world's fourth largest. Sign up here. The travel warning - triggered by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's remarks about Taiwan, the democratically governed island claimed by China - has seen a wave of flight cancellations and battered tourism-related stocks in Japan. "This is a huge loss for us," said Yu Jinxin, vice president of East Japan International Travel Service. Tourism accounts for around 7% of Japan's overall gross domestic product, according to the World Travel & Tourism Council, and has been a major driver of growth in recent years. Visitors from mainland China and Hong Kong account for around a fifth of all arrivals, official figures show. The boycott could result in a loss of around 2.2 trillion yen ($14.23 billion) annually, Nomura Research Institute estimates. Tourism-related stocks in Japan have sunk since the warning was issued on Friday. Already more than 10 Chinese airlines have offered refunds on Japan-bound routes until December 31, with one airline analyst estimating around 500,000 tickets have already been cancelled. NO SIGNS OF IMMINENT BREAKTHROUGH Takaichi sparked the most serious diplomatic dispute in years between Asia's top two economies when she told Japanese lawmakers this month that a Chinese attack on Taiwan threatening Japan's survival could trigger a military response. A wave of vitriolic responses by a Chinese diplomat in Japan and Chinese state media aimed at Takaichi prompted Japan to warn its citizens in China on Monday to step up safety precautions and avoid crowded places. Beijing has demanded Takaichi retract her remarks, though Tokyo has said they are in line with the government's position, suggesting no breakthrough is imminent. China has also suspended the screenings of upcoming Japanese films, and Japanese celebrities popular there have tried to pre-empt any potential backlash. "China is like my second homeland to me and all my friends in China are my cherished family—I will always support One China," Japanese singer MARiA wrote on Weibo on Tuesday. Tour operator Yu says her company has been able to weather past flare-ups between the neighbours, such as Tokyo's decision to nationalise disputed islands in 2012 that triggered mass anti-Japan protests across China. But a protracted crisis this time could be devastating, she said. "If this lasts for one or two months, we can manage, but if the situation continues to worsen, it will obviously have a major impact on our business." https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/japan-counts-cost-chinas-travel-boycott-tensions-flare-2025-11-19/
2025-11-19 06:44
Dollar/yen hits highest since January Japan's Katayama says new government closely monitoring markets Dollar strengthens against major currencies as traders await payrolls data NEW YORK, Nov 19 (Reuters) - The dollar strengthened against the yen on Wednesday and the Japanese currency fell to a 10-month low, while Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama declared that Japan's new government was closely monitoring markets "with a high sense of urgency." Japanese government ministers including Katayama met Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Wednesday. The yen fell after Katayama's comments. Sign up here. The currency has been falling on market expectations that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's new administration will deliver a huge spending package backed by low interest rates. "From a short-term point of view, the yen continues to underperform. It’s deviating quite significantly from underlying fundamentals," said Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist, Scotiabank. "It's certainly on the radar for Japanese officials. We may be moving into a range here where stronger protest from the Japanese government becomes a distinct risk here." Meanwhile, the greenback also ticked up against most major peers after the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes several members thought a December interest-rate cut "could be appropriate" but many viewed it as "likely not appropriate." Traders were looking to the minutes and the upcoming non-farm payrolls to provide clues about the potential for an interest-rate cut next month. "The deck appears stacked against the doves," said Matt Weller, global head of market research at StoneX. MARKET WEIGHS INTERVENTION RISKS FOR YEN The yen fell 0.92% to 156.975, hitting its lowest against the dollar since mid-January in the New York afternoon session. The inauguration last month of Takaichi, who is known as an advocate of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy, has complicated the BOJ's efforts to gradually push up still-low interest rates. The Kyodo news agency reported that Japan's stimulus package could exceed 20 trillion yen ($129 billion) and be funded by an extra budget of around 17 trillion yen. StoneX's Weller sees more weakness in store for the yen, telling Reuters the simultaneous rise in yields and fall in the currency signals "global investors are starting to lose confidence in that country's situation as a whole." BOE EXPECTED TO CUT RATES IN DECEMBER In Britain, consumer price inflation fell to 3.6% in October from September's joint 18-month high of 3.8%, official figures showed on Wednesday, as expected by the BoE and economists polled by Reuters. The inflation data cemented expectations that the BoE could cut interest rates in December. Sterling was down 0.71% against the dollar at 1.3050, briefly touching its lowest since Friday when British markets were whipped around as speculation swirled around the highly anticipated November 26 budget, which remains the key event for sterling this month. The dollar index , which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, rose 0.59% to 100.17. The euro fell 0.47% to $1.1526. Fed funds futures are pricing an implied 33% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the December 10 meeting, compared with a 42.4% chance a day earlier, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. Another test will come with Thursday's delayed release of non-farm payrolls data for September, after initial jobless claims data released on Tuesday showed the number of Americans on jobless benefits surged between mid-September and mid-October. Still, with news that the Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October and November payrolls reports until after the December FOMC meeting, Scotiabank's Osborne said: "I imagine that if we get a weak run of jobs data between now and the end of January, pressure for a more aggressive 'catch up' move could rise." https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/yen-bid-dollar-steadies-investors-look-safety-global-selloff-2025-11-19/
2025-11-19 06:29
Niigata governor to approve Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, Kyodo says TEPCO gets ready to restart Unit No. 6 at the plant Restart to cut Japan's LNG imports, analyst says New PM Takaichi favours faster reactor restarts TOKYO, Nov 19 (Reuters) - The governor of the Japanese prefecture that is home to the world's largest nuclear power plant is set to give approval as early as this week for its restart, local media reported on Wednesday. The approval will clear the final hurdle in Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings' (9501.T) , opens new tab quest to bring the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant back online, more than a decade after the Fukushima nuclear disaster led to its shutdown. Sign up here. Niigata Prefecture Governor Hideyo Hanazumi is set to announce his approval as early as Friday to partially resume Kashiwazaki-Kariwa, Kyodo news agency said, citing multiple unnamed sources in the prefecture government. Hanazumi will consult the prefectural assembly on his decision during its regular session beginning on December 2. If the assembly endorses his decision, he is expected to respond to the national government's request to approve the restart, the Nikkei business daily said. TEPCO is planning to bring online the two biggest units of the plant, No. 6 and No. 7, which can together produce 2,710 megawatts of electricity, and possibly decommission some of the remaining five units. Kashiwazaki-Kariwa's total capacity is 8,212 MW. In October, TEPCO finished checks at No. 6 reactor after fuel loading, saying at the time it had confirmed that the main systems required for reactor startup were operating properly. The company has also earlier pledged 100 billion yen ($644 million) to support local communities to gain support for the restart, which TEPCO has sought for many years despite some local opposition. If approved, the restart would be in line with new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's plans to support more nuclear restarts to strengthen energy security. Partial restoration of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa plant would also help to cut liquefied natural gas import costs for Japan, the world's second-biggest LNG buyer after China, as Takaichi's government is prioritising bringing down the cost of living. Japan has restarted 14 reactors since rolling out stricter safety rules after the Fukushima disaster. As of the end of October, 11 reactors are operating nationwide, with a total capacity of 10,647 MW. Before the disaster, Japan's utilities operated 54 reactors. If Unit No. 6 is restarted early next year, it may displace around 1 million tonnes of LNG demand from Japan next year, according to Kpler analyst Go Katayama. "We had already lowered Japan's 2026 demand forecast from 66 million tonnes in 2025 to 63 million tonnes on the back of higher nuclear availability and structurally lower power demand," he said. "KK6's earlier restart would further reduce that to around 62 million tonnes." TEPCO has paid out large amounts of compensation following the reactor meltdown in 2011. Restarting one reactor at Kashiwazaki-Kariwa would boost its annual net profit by 100 billion yen, TEPCO has said. ($1 = 155.2700 yen) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/japanese-governor-set-approve-restart-worlds-biggest-nuclear-plant-2025-11-19/
2025-11-19 05:39
UK budget scheduled for November 26 Markets unnerved by decision to rule out income tax hike Sterling in the firing line, say analysts Rate cut bets could cushion bonds, stocks LONDON, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Britain's markets face a major test in next week's budget, with the outlook for bonds, stocks and sterling all hinging on Finance Minister Rachel Reeves striking the right balance between fiscal restraint and support for growth. Investors were rattled on Friday by news that Reeves has no plans to raise income tax due to improved fiscal forecasts, just days after she appeared to signal a hike to underpin her own financial rules. Sign up here. "Markets are looking for signs of credibility through meaningful fiscal consolidation," said Laura Cooper, head of macro credit and global investment strategist at Nuveen. "That means front-loading revenue-generating streams to build up a cushion for the future." Political risks are also on the rise as Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces criticism within his ruling Labour party. Here's a look at how the budget is shaping up for markets. 1/ BOND MARKETS ON ALERT Bond markets are concerned the government could sacrifice long-term fiscal consolidation for short-term political gain. Having fallen sharply in October, Britain's 10-year borrowing costs on Friday saw their biggest one-day jump since July. Markets are scarred by a rout in 2022 after the then Conservative government's unfunded plans for tax cuts. Big investors have called on Reeves to double her financial buffer against economic shocks from 10 billion pounds. Raising income tax is seen by some as the best way to do this. "Without income tax, can the government raise enough revenue to avoid landing in the same fiscal squeeze over the coming year again?," said State Street Investment Management macro policy strategist Vladimir Gorshkov. Berenberg senior UK economist Andrew Wishart said keeping Labour's pre-election promise not to raise the main taxes would make it difficult for Reeves to increase her fiscal headroom. Berenberg calculates that each 1 percentage point increase in income tax rates would raise over 10.5 billion pounds in 2029-30. 2/ STERLING BECOMES A BUDGET WEATHERVANE Investors have rounded on the pound, at its lowest in months, as the most likely victim of budget disappointment. "Fiscal drag in the UK will put further pressure on the pound," said Brown Brothers Harriman senior markets strategist Elias Haddad. At around $1.31, sterling is set for a third consecutive monthly decline against the dollar, and is near its lowest levels since April 2023 versus the euro , . While investors have held bullish sterling positions for most of this year, that conviction has waned as the outlook for the economy and interest rates has become muddier. Eren Osman, head of investment management at Arbuthnot Latham, said he was positioned for further sterling weakness because tax hikes and spending reductions would push the Bank of England towards rate cuts. 3/ WATCH RETAILERS, HOMEBUILDERS Barclays said a positive surprise that led to lower bond yields could lift fiscally sensitive sectors in the domestically-focused FTSE-250 stock index (.FTMC) , opens new tab such as housebuilders, food retail, utilities and real estate. The index is up around 4% so far this year, while the globally-exposed FTSE 100 has surged almost 17% (.FTSE) , opens new tab. Analysts flagged potential tax rises on alcohol, gambling and tobacco, and new levies on air travel, plastics and sugary drinks. However, such measures could dampen demand and prove inflationary, they warned. Nuveen has a preference for large-cap stocks because they are more exposed to the global economy, Cooper said. 4/ DON'T FORGET BANKS Bank stocks too have been whipped around by pre-budget speculation, especially now Reeves appears to have ruled out income tax rises. NatWest (NWG.L) , opens new tab, Barclays (BARC.L) , opens new tab and Lloyds (LLOY.L) , opens new tab all fell sharply on Friday, though the sector is still up more than 40% this year. "There's been some selling-off for the banking sector, which you could expect to be under the spotlight for taxes," said Rory McPherson, CIO at Wren Sterling. 5/ BOE RATE CUT BETS Money markets are pricing in a roughly 75% chance of a December rate cut from the BoE amid signs that inflation is easing. Such speculation could increase if the budget is seen as weakening the outlook for economic growth. "What you want is the BoE to be in a situation or in a position to cut more, so on one hand, not too much drag on growth from austerity and not too much impact on inflation as well," said Barclays head of equities Emmanuel Cau. Any post-budget selling of gilts could be cushioned by rising rate-cut expectations. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/high-stakes-budget-store-edgy-uk-markets-2025-11-19/
2025-11-19 05:38
KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Malaysia's national utility firm Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB) has incurred losses of more than $1 billion from illegal power usage by cryptocurrency miners between 2020 and August this year, the energy ministry said. TNB (TENA.KL) , opens new tab found that 13,827 premises had illegally used power to mine cryptocurrency over the period, the energy and water transformation ministry said in a written parliamentary reply dated Tuesday. Sign up here. The illegal use of electricity for cryptocurrency mining, particularly for bitcoin, has caused financial losses of 4.6 billion ringgit ($1.11 billion), the ministry said, adding that TNB is working with authorities to curb power theft. Though there are no specific laws governing cryptocurrency mining, tampering with meters or using connections to bypass the them are offences under the Electricity Supply Act. The ministry said TNB has been able to seize bitcoin mining machines at the premises involved following joint operations by the ministry, the police, the communications regulator, the anti-graft agency and other enforcement bodies. "In an effort to curb this issue, a database that stores complete records of owners and tenants of premises suspected of being involved in electricity theft related to bitcoin mining activities has been established by TNB," the ministry said. "This database plays an important role as an internal reference to identify and monitor suspicious premises and serves as the basis for operational inspection measures." Smart meters are also being installed at electricity distribution substations to monitor energy usage and detect any power manipulation in real time, the ministry added. ($1 = 4.1460 ringgit) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/malaysias-tenaga-nasional-incurs-losses-more-than-1-billion-crypto-power-theft-2025-11-19/
2025-11-19 05:33
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook Financial markets hit a holding pattern ahead of chipmaker Nvidia's (NVDA.O) , opens new tab earnings later on Wednesday. Sign up here. Nvidia's near 7% weighting in the S&P 500 ensures that where goes Nvidia, so goes the market. It reports after hours. Before the release, CPI data is due for Britain where it would take a big upside surprise to derail a rate cut that markets have priced in for December. Stocks, bonds and the currency market were all mostly steady through the Asia session, though gains were hard to come by as investors were holding their breath to see if Nvidia's outlook can match lofty expectations. Enormous AI spending commitments should guarantee good business for the chipmaker in the year ahead, but it's longer-term that doubts over the sustainability of returns are starting to make investors nervous. Analysts following the company have been getting more bullish about the company's future performance, with expectations for the company's fiscal 2027 revenue rising 15% since late May to about $285 billion, according to LSEG data. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's October meeting are due during the U.S. day, and will be parsed for a read on the dynamics of a divided Fed, where members are arguing for differing policy responses to inflation and labour data. In Japan, the yen held steady just above Tuesday's nine-month low while the central bank governor, finance and economic revitalisation ministers held a meeting. The last time the BOJ chief met with the finance and economic revitalisation ministers was in October last year, when they warned against excessive yen falls and agreed to carefully monitor market developments. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday: - UK, euro zone inflation - Federal Reserve minutes - Earnings for Nvidia, Target https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-11-19/
