2025-11-12 19:32

Nov 12 (Reuters) - Argentina's annual inflation rate fell for the 18th straight month in October, official data showed on Wednesday, as the monthly rate was a tick above market expectations. Consumer prices rose 2.3% in October, up from the 2.1% registered in September and just above analysts' forecast of 2.2%. Sign up here. Headline inflation fell in the 12 months through October to 31.3%, easing from the previous month's 31.8% rate and in line with forecasts. The annual rate is the lowest since July 2018, Economy Minister Luis Caputo said. The data comes after Argentine President Javier Milei secured in last month's midterm elections, enabling him to push ahead with overhauling the economy, despite discontent among many with his deep austerity measures. Fears about a possible inflationary spike ahead of last month's midterm vote were quelled following the disbursements of to calm the Latin American country's currency market. The October data "underscores the strength of the government's economic program and the success of its fiscal and monetary discipline in limiting the impact of financial volatility on Argentines' purchasing power," Caputo said in a post on X. Inflation is on track to end the year at its lowest annual level since 2018. Argentine analysts see annual inflation closing the year at 29.6%, according to a central bank market expectations survey released last week. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentinas-annual-inflation-falls-october-lowest-since-mid-2018-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 19:16

MOSCOW, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Russia and Kazakhstan have agreed to boost their partnership in the oil sector following talks between their respective presidents in the Kremlin on Wednesday. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev concluded a two-day meeting in Moscow, where they were expected to discuss gas projects and the fallout from U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies. Sign up here. "We agreed to strengthen our partnership in the areas of oil, oil products, coal, and electricity production, transportation, and supply. We discussed in detail the prospects for gas cooperation, in particular gas supply to Kazakhstan’s regions bordering Russia, as well as transit to third countries," Tokayev said in televised remarks following the talks with Putin. (This story has been corrected to fix the spelling of Kazakh president Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's first name in paragraph 2) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-kazakhstan-agree-strengthen-ties-oil-oil-products-after-talks-moscow-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 19:01

Nov 12 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran on Wednesday repeated his view that data showing inflation running above 2% is backward-looking and should not be taken at face value, and again described U.S. monetary policy as too tight mainly because he believes cooling housing inflation is easing price pressures. "To keep policy so tight in response to an artifact of the statistical measurement process rather than any actual supply-demand imbalances in the economy will then create the labor market weakness that we were tasked with avoiding," Miran said during an event hosted by the University of Cambridge Judge Business School. Sign up here. Inflation measures aren't fully capturing current and expected declines in rents as demand drops amid President Donald Trump's immigration crackdown, Miran argued. They are also elevated mechanically by stock market gains which should not be a driver of Fed policy, he said. "It's incumbent upon us to get monetary policy right, to get it out of such a restrictive state that would eliminate some of the downside risks to the economy." Miran, who is expected to return to his post as a top White House economic advisor when his term as a Fed governor ends in January, dissented at both of the U.S. central bank's most recent rate-setting meetings, calling for half-percentage-point rate cuts instead of the quarter-percentage-point reductions the Fed delivered at both meetings. Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained those rate cuts as insurance against further labor market slowing, and describes monetary policy now as modestly restrictive. Miran's self-described "out-of-consensus" view is that the Fed's policy rate is much too tight. Asked about his outlook for the economy, he pointed to the potentially stimulative effects of Trump administration policies like deregulation and tax policy, but said he did not have enough data to know where the economy stands now, a reference to the lack of official data during the U.S. government shutdown. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-miran-repeats-call-less-restrictive-monetary-policy-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 18:57

BENGALURU, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve will again lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points next month to underpin a weakening labor market, according to 80% of economists polled by Reuters, up slightly from a poll taken last month. That strengthening resolve contrasts with the clear disagreement among Federal Open Market Committee members on whether the economy needs another reduction this year, especially in the absence of key official data during the longest-ever government shutdown. Sign up here. Following a quarter percentage-point cut last month which drew rare dissent in two directions, Chair Jerome Powell warned that a December reduction was not a foregone conclusion. An 80% majority of economists, 84 of 105, predicted the FOMC would lower the interest rate by a quarter point for a third time in a row on December 10, taking it to 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market pricing. Twenty-one expected no change. "The general sense is the labor market still looks relatively weak and that's one of the key reasons why we think the FOMC will continue to deliver that December cut. But the risk to December will be potentially data dispelling that sense of weakness," said Abigail Watt, U.S. economist at UBS. A possible government reopening after the Senate approved a temporary funding bill on Monday could clear some of the data fog before that meeting. "We're already seeing some kind of disagreement over the extent to which labor market concerns are dominating the inflation dynamic...the tension in the mandate is probably going to worsen as we go into next year. There's potential we see the economy improving and inflation pressures continuing to rise," added Watt. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index - the Fed's preferred inflation measure - has remained above its 2% target for more than four years, the longest streak since 1995. The poll showed it would average above 2% through 2027. "It could impact Fed credibility that we've had inflation above target for a long period of time. It's one of those factors people may not notice, may not pay attention to, and then they do all at once... We will take a little bit more caution around viewing tariff inflation purely as temporary," said Josh Hirt, senior economist at Vanguard. Nearly half of economists polled still expect the rate to decrease to 3.25%-3.50% next quarter, also the median view. There was no clear majority on where the fed funds rate would be by end-2026. Nearly 70% of respondents to a separate question, 36 of 52, said job growth has remained roughly the same since the shutdown started, despite private data showing U.S. firms were shedding jobs recently. While 16 said hiring was worse, none said it had improved. The unemployment rate, last reported at 4.3% in August, was expected to remain unchanged this quarter and increase slightly to average 4.5% next year, poll medians showed. "The labor market is cooling, yes, but it's not collapsing by any means," said Stephen Juneau, U.S. economist at Bank of America Securities. "We're still seeing low hiring, but we're not seeing a ton of firing either." "December may not be a done deal unless Powell sees more obvious signs downside risks to the labor market are truly materializing." The U.S. economy, which grew 3.8% in the second quarter and was forecast to have expanded 2.9% last quarter, will slow to 1.0% this quarter, according to poll medians. Growth is then forecast to average roughly 1.8%, which Fed officials currently see as the non-inflationary rate, each year through 2027. (Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll) https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-cut-rates-again-december-weakening-job-market-say-most-economists-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 18:42

OTTAWA, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Ahead of the Bank of Canada's rates decision on October 29, Governing Council decided to look through "choppy" annual inflation data and consider underlying indicators, minutes of the bank's meeting released on Wednesday showed. This approach would help provide signals about the trend of total inflation, they concluded. Sign up here. The central bank trimmed its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% last month and signaled this could be its final rate cut for some time, given monetary policy could only help a stuttering economy to a certain extent. The minutes showed the rate-setting team acknowledged the year-over-year change in inflation would be choppy due to sales tax breaks doled out by the government last year and the continuing effects of the removal of a consumer carbon tax. "Members would be looking through this choppiness and watching indicators of underlying inflation for signals about the trend of total inflation," the minutes said. Canada's annual inflation rate increased to 2.4% in September, mainly led by a smaller decline in gasoline prices on a yearly basis. The BoC expects that inflation over the next two years is likely to be around 2%, or at the middle point of its 1% to 3% target range. Rates are already at the lower end of its neutral range, which the bank considers to be somewhat stimulative for the economy. "Governing Council members also agreed that monetary policy was likely close to the limits of what it could do to support the economy in the current circumstances," the summary said. Governor Tiff Macklem said after the rates announcement decision that he would be ready to respond if the economy weakened materially. The likelihood of inflation stabilizing was one of the main factors the bank considered, even though there was some difference on the timing of the cut. With continued excess supply, labor market weakness, tepid growth expected in the second half of the year and inflation projected to stay close to the target, the arguments for cutting the policy rate in October were considered more salient, the minutes said. Governors were also concerned that with U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty continuing to plague business decisions, weakness in the labor market could persist and broaden. They did though acknowledge that with immigration curbs slowing down the rate of growth of population, fewer jobs would be needed to maintain current employment levels. (This story has been refiled to fix the grammar in the headline and paragraph 1) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bank-canada-governors-agreed-look-through-choppy-inflation-minutes-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 18:29

HOUSTON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The cost of doing business in Argentina remains challenging despite promising geology and progress by the government of President Javier Milei to foster the oil economy, Chevron's Vice Chairman Mark Nelson said on Wednesday. "Clearly the geology is good," he said at a question and answer session during the company's investor day presentation in New York City. Sign up here. Chevron has exploration and development interests in the Vaca Muerta formation in southern Neuquen province, where estimated ultimate recovery per well is 50% higher than the average seen in the prolific Permian basin in Texas. Crude produced from the area competes with Arab Light crude and is highly desirable after blending, Nelson said. Still, costs to drill a well there are currently 35% higher than what the company is seeing in the Permian. "Our hopes would be that capital controls would be reduced, that some of the tax burden, and workforce flexibility would be increased, so taxes coming down, and the ability to manage people," Nelson said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chevron-says-argentina-costs-still-challenging-despite-reform-progress-2025-11-12/