2025-11-12 11:00

IEA introduces new scenario showing oil demand growing into 2050 Move follows pressure from Trump administration on energy watchdog New scenario however points to dangerous increase in global temperatures LONDON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The International Energy Agency’s latest outlook signals that oil demand may continue rising into 2050, a sharp shift from its previous reports and a stark reminder of how dominant black gold remains in the global economy. The IEA's annual World Energy Outlook, published on Wednesday, maps out different trajectories for energy demand through 2050. This release is normally a pretty mundane affair, but not this year, as the outlook has become a political football. Sign up here. Officials in U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration have accused the Paris-based watchdog of politicising energy by suggesting that demand for fossil fuels could plateau by 2030. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has called peak oil demand "nonsensical". It is therefore notable that the 2025 report introduced a new scenario showing that, given current government policies, oil demand will not plateau in 2030 but will instead hit 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, up around 13% from 2024 consumption. TROUBLING MESSAGE ON GLOBAL WARMING The “existing policies” baked into the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) range from renewables mandates and fossil fuel extraction laws to construction and vehicle emission standards. The CPS, which appears to be the base scenario among several IEA projections, "offers a cautious perspective" on the speed of adoption of new technologies and therefore assumes a bigger role for fossil fuels in the coming decades. Former critics of the IEA may hail this about-face as a much-needed dose of reality to counter the organisation's previous green leanings. And, to be fair, previous scenarios probably were overly optimistic about the implementation of climate-friendly policies and the shift away from fossil fuels. But political matters aside, the message CPS is sending is troubling. It points towards a 2.9 degree Celsius rise in temperatures above pre-industrial levels by 2100, far exceeding the 1.5 degree target which scientists say is needed to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. If that’s right, the world is in big trouble. QUESTIONABLE ASSUMPTIONS UNDERPIN CPS The CPS is underpinned by some highly questionable assumptions, however. First, it presumes recent technological leaps that led to sharp declines in the cost of batteries, electric vehicles and renewables will largely stagnate and even decline in some countries through 2035. It also assumes efficiency gains to internal combustion engines will moderate after 2035, slowing a multi-decade trend. At the heart of the CPS's bullish oil demand outlook is a highly conservative assumption about the growth rate of EV sales, which accounted for 25% of new car sales globally in 2025, up from 5% in 2020. Projections related to autos matter enormously to the broader energy outlook because road transportation is responsible for around 45% of global oil use today. While the CPS projects that electric car sales will continue to grow rapidly in China and the European Union to reach 90% of all auto sales by 2035, it also assumes that EV market share will flatline at around 15% in other countries such as the United States and India. While it is true that EV adoption in the U.S. did slow in the past year, partly due to the elimination of subsidies, extrapolating from that when projecting future demand is tough to justify when EVs are becoming cheaper globally and the technology is improving. Are U.S. consumers really going to stick with an outdated technology as a new one becomes ever more affordable? Moreover, the CPS assumes gasoline and diesel consumption will continue to grow into 2050, which would require investment in new refining capacity. But that type of capital-intensive investment is unlikely unless oil prices rise and remain elevated for a meaningful period. Of course, higher gasoline prices would make internal combustion cars less competitive against battery-powered vehicles. Overall, the CPS appears rooted in the belief that barriers preventing the development and adoption of low-carbon technologies will only grow. Given the enormous investments in these fields globally – investments in clean energy technologies worldwide are set to reach $2.2 trillion in 2025 - the boost expected from artificial intelligence and the push for greater energy security, such assumptions are a bit head-scratching. NET ‘ZERO HOUR’? The IEA is justified in acknowledging the political and economic realities that have kept the world from meeting its various climate pledges. In particular, the agency is right to point out that the climate agenda has slowed in recent years in the wake of the energy price shock that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The focus has clearly shifted from energy transition to energy security. The United States also dealt a heavy blow to the energy transition efforts after President Trump pulled the country out of the 2015 Paris climate accord on the first day of his second term. He has since scrapped many of his predecessor's flagship green policies and regulations. But none of this changes the fact that the energy transition is an economic necessity, as the overwhelming scientific consensus indicates that the rising costs of preventing the effects of climate change dwarf the costs of deploying new technologies for cleaner energy. As world leaders and scientists gather in Belem, Brazil for the COP30 climate summit, the IEA's outlook will make for sobering reading. Want to receive my column in your inbox every Monday and Thursday, along with additional energy insights and links to trending stories? Sign up for my Power Up newsletter here. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), , opens new tabyour essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI , opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ieas-bullish-oil-outlook-is-nod-trump-wake-up-call-world-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 10:59

Nov 12 (Reuters) - At least 42 migrants are missing and presumed dead after a rubber boat capsized off the coast of Libya, the International Organization for Migration said on Wednesday. Libyan authorities rescued seven survivors who had drifted at sea for six days after the vessel, carrying 49 people, sank near the Al Buri oilfield, an offshore facility north-northwest of the Libyan coast. Sign up here. IOM said the migrants were from Sudan, Nigeria, Cameroon, and Somalia. Libya has become a transit route for migrants fleeing conflict and poverty to Europe across the Mediterranean since the fall in 2011 of dictator Muammar Gaddafi during a NATO-backed uprising. The number of migrants who drowned in the central Mediterranean had already surpassed 1,000 this year, the IOM said, and this week's incident raised that toll "even further". Across the entire Mediterranean, there were 2,452 such deaths in 2024, IOM data shows. "This tragic event, coming just weeks after other deadly incidents off Surman and Lampedusa, underscores the persistent dangers faced by migrants and refugees along the Central Mediterranean Route," it said in the statement. In mid-October, a group of 61 bodies of migrants were recovered on the coast west of the capital Tripoli. In September, IOM said at least 50 people had died after a vessel carrying 75 Sudanese refugees caught fire off Libya's coast. On Tuesday, several states including Britain, Spain, Norway and Sierra Leone urged Libya at a U.N. meeting in Geneva to close detention centres where rights groups say migrants and refugees have been tortured, abused and sometimes killed. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/least-42-migrants-missing-presumed-dead-after-boat-capsizes-off-libya-iom-says-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 10:41

BEIJING, Nov 12 (Reuters) - China's energy administration said on Wednesday that it will push renewable energy use beyond the power sector over the next five years, aiming to better absorb the country's booming wind and solar output. Provinces and power producers should help local governments to build up their industrial bases for green hydrogen, green ammonia, green methanol, and sustainable aviation fuel during the next five-year plan from 2026-2030, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said in its opinion document on integrating new energy. Sign up here. Green hydrogen uses renewable electricity to power a chemical reaction that splits water into hydrogen and oxygen molecules. It can serve as a low-carbon fuel for heavy industry and transport, power industrial processes or vehicles, and as a feedstock for ammonia and methanol, which are used in fertilisers, shipping and elsewhere. The department encouraged coastal areas to explore using offshore wind to produce hydrogen, a still nascent production method. The document also called for using renewables to power heating, particularly in industrial parks. Energy planners see low-carbon industrial parks as a key to decarbonisation goals because industry consumes some 60% of the country's electricity, according to the International Energy Agency. Finding new outlets for renewable power is becoming more urgent as China's fleet, the world's largest, sometimes generates more electricity than the grid can accept, a mismatch known as curtailment. That is expected to be a focus for energy regulators during the next five-year plan. Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie forecast recently that solar curtailment rates would average more than 5% in 21 Chinese provinces over the next 10 years. That would be up from just 10 provinces experiencing that level of curtailment during January to August this year, according to official data, though still within China's national-level limit of 10%. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/china-planning-renewable-energy-expansion-beyond-power-sector-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 08:00

Nov 12 (Reuters) - Oil major TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab has agreed a 15-year power purchase deal to supply Alphabet's Google (GOOGL.O) , opens new tab with 1.5 terawatt hours of renewable electricity from its Montpelier solar farm in Ohio, the French company said on Wednesday. The solar facility, which is nearing completion, is connected to the PJM grid, the largest in the United States, and will help power Google’s data centre operations in the state, it said. Sign up here. "This agreement illustrates TotalEnergies’s ability to meet the growing energy demands of major tech companies by leveraging its integrated portfolio of renewable and flexible assets," said Stéphane Michel, President of Gas, Renewables and Power at TotalEnergies. The company's growing investment in electricity is helping the company secure a steadier revenue stream and avoid the boom-and-bust cycles typical of oil and gas, CEO Patrick Pouyanne said earlier this month at the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi. The Paris-listed firm is deploying a 10 gigawatt portfolio in the United States, with onshore solar, wind and battery storage projects. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/totalenergies-agrees-renewable-power-deal-with-google-ohio-data-centres-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 07:48

Little room for U.S. soybeans in China after record LatAm buys China to struggle to buy 12 mln tons trumpeted by White House Soybean stocks at China's ports at record 10 mln metric tons SINGAPORE/BEIJING, Nov 12 (Reuters) - China is grappling with a glut of soybeans after months of record imports, curbing prospects for U.S. exports despite a recent trade truce that Washington said includes a pledge by Beijing to resume heavy purchases. Traders and analysts warn that vast stockpiles at ports and in state reserves, coupled with weak crush margins, limit Beijing's appetite for further purchases. Sign up here. "State firms may be waiting for margins to recover before making large-scale purchases," said Johnny Xiang, founder of Beijing-based AgRadar Consulting. "Even with tariff waivers, margins remain negative and Brazilian beans are still cheaper." After President Donald Trump met Chinese leader Xi Jinping last month officials in Washington said China had agreed to buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by year-end and 25 million tons in each of the next three years. China has not publicly committed to making purchases, although it suspended retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, while state buyer COFCO has booked only a few cargoes for December and January shipment, traders and analysts say. SURGING STOCKPILES, SHRINKING MARGINS Chinese buyers sharply boosted soybean purchases from South America earlier this year, while shunning those from the United States, fearing a shortfall if the trade war with Washington dragged on, leading to oversupply. Soybean stocks at Chinese ports reached a record 10.3 million tons on Nov.7, up 3.6 million tons on the year, while processors, known as crushers, held 7.5 million tons, the most since 2017, data from Sublime China Information showed. Physical prices for soymeal, used to fatten animals in the world's biggest pig producer, have dropped more than 20% from an April peak in key coastal regions, to hover around 3,000 yuan ($421) a ton, Mysteel data showed. Such areas are the northern region of Tianjin, the eastern provinces of Shandong and Jiangsu and southern Guangdong. Chinese crushers have faced losses since mid-year, with a negative margin this week of about 190 yuan a ton in the processing hub of Rizhao , and traders expect margins to stay negative until at least March. "There is not much room for China to increase soybean imports," said a trader at an international house that runs oilseed processing units. "Soybean stocks are huge and demand for the feed sector is very slow." LITTLE SIGN OF BIG BUYS Market expectations for state grain importers COFCO and Sinograin to quickly resume significant purchases as a goodwill gesture after the trade talks have yet to materialise. It is still possible that state firms could make large purchases despite market conditions. "The administration expects our trading partners to adhere to their deal commitments," a U.S. official told Reuters. "The president reserves the right to adjust tariff rates, export controls, and other concessions to hold our trading partners accountable to their deal commitments." China's commerce ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. China's grain and oilseed stocks are a state secret, but at least two traders estimated soybean inventories held by state companies at about 40 million to 45 million tons. That would be double China's U.S. imports last year and sufficient for five months of typical early-year demand. Private importers have continued to book Brazilian cargoes for December shipment. Brazilian soybeans for January shipment were quoted at around $480 a ton, including cost and freight to China, compared with $540 to $550 a ton for U.S. cargoes. Chinese importers have booked about 2 million tons of soybeans for December shipment, covering more than 40% of the month's projected demand, while January bookings remain slow, traders said. "There's very little indication that state buyers are engaged in a program to purchase 12 million metric tons ahead of the end of this year, let alone 25 million tons more for calendar year 2026," Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist at StoneX, wrote in a note on Tuesday. ($1=7.1230 Chinese yuan renminbi) https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-soybean-glut-could-defeat-us-export-hopes-after-trade-thaw-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 07:46

BEIJING, Nov 12 (Reuters) - AI data centre-fuelled power demand growth in the U.S. is likely to drive a "boom cycle" for energy storage in the next five years as more storage is needed to smooth out fluctuations from wind and solar generation, according to UBS Securities. Global energy storage demand could increase 40% globally year-on-year in 2026, Hong Kong-based UBS Securities analyst Yan Yishu told a media briefing on Wednesday. Sign up here. "The demand for AI data centres in the U.S. is very robust, but electricity is the biggest bottleneck." Renewables are the only power-generating segment expected to grow significantly in the next five years in the U.S., and because they produce power intermittently, the grid needs more batteries to store that power. The U.S. market is key for Chinese energy storage manufacturers, which have a 20% market share in the U.S., because it is one of the highest-margin markets. However, emerging markets in the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia could see the fastest growth rates of 30% to 50% or more, Yan said in the briefing. The biggest risk for Chinese exports to the U.S. is the foreign entity of concern requirements in President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill, which place restrictions on participation in the U.S. energy sector by Chinese-owned or controlled companies, Yan said. In China, a push to implement market-based pricing for renewables will give a further boost to energy storage projects, which profit by charging up when prices are low and selling power when prices are high. A peak-valley electricity price difference of 0.4 yuan ($0.06) per kilowatt-hour is enough to put independent storage projects, or those that are not combined with a renewable power plant, in the money, Yan said. UBS anticipates Chinese provinces are likely to introduce so-called capacity payments, which compensate battery owners to be available when needed, to further incentivise energy storage. ($1 = 7.1230 Chinese yuan renminbi) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/data-centres-drive-energy-storage-boom-cycle-next-five-years-ubs-says-2025-11-12/