2025-01-07 18:07
SAO PAULO, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Beef and chicken exports from Brazil, the world's largest supplier of both meat types, may break new records in 2025, two industry groups said on Tuesday after the release of annual trade data. Their optimism reflects the positive effects of lower grain prices and a weak Brazilian currency, which could continue to bolster meat exports and local companies including JBS (JBSS3.SA) , opens new tab and BRF (BRFS3.SA) , opens new tab. China remained Brazil's main destination for both beef and chicken exports, according to the trade groups. Beef exports to China alone brought in $6 billion, the data showed. Overall, Brazil exported a total of 2.89 million tons of beef last year, up more than 26% compared with the previous year, according to government data compiled by the domestic beef lobby Abiec. Sales totaled $12.8 billion, 22% more than in 2023. "It was a historic year for the national beef industry, for the livestock sector and for Brazil," said Abiec President Roberto Perosa in a statement. "Even though it is still early to make a prediction, I believe that 2025 has everything we need to break the record by volume and also by revenue." Abiec said the Brazilian government is in talks to open up key markets like Japan, Vietnam, Turkey and South Korea. Chicken meat exports, in turn, rose 3% to 5.294 million tons in 2024, according to chicken and pork lobby ABPA. Chicken export revenue was also a record $9.928 billion, up 1.3% compared with 2023. "The year's trade balance confirms ABPA's expectations and also points to new levels of average shipment volumes exceeding 440,000 tons per month," said ABPA President Ricardo Santin. "The indicators remain positive for 2025, with potential new monthly increases and expectation of numbers relatively higher than in the previous year." Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-lower-grain-prices-bolster-brazil-beef-chicken-export-prospects-2025-01-07/
2025-01-07 17:51
Jan 7 (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said on Tuesday he will move quickly to revoke an offshore oil and gas drilling ban announced by outgoing Democratic President Joe Biden. "Banning offshore drilling will not stand. I will reverse it immediately," Trump said at a news conference. He added: "I will revoke the offshore oil, gas drilling ban in vast areas on day one." Republican Trump takes office on Jan. 20, but could find it difficult to reverse Biden's order to withdraw 625 million acres (253 million hectares) of ocean from new offshore oil and gas development. The 70-year-old Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act allows presidents to remove areas from mineral leasing and drilling but does not grant them the legal authority to overturn prior bans, according to a 2019 court ruling - meaning a reversal would likely require an act of Congress. Trump said he would take the matter to court if necessary. Trump also said his administration would open up oil and gas development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and would seek to block new wind projects. "We're going to try and have a policy where no windmills are being built," Trump said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trump-i-will-revoke-offshore-oil-gas-drilling-ban-vast-areas-day-one-2025-01-07/
2025-01-07 15:13
ORLANDO, Florida, Jan 7 (Reuters) - U.S. financial markets last year were more sensitive to economic surprises than usual, and as Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term as U.S. president investors should buckle up for more of the same in 2025. Especially in Treasuries. The 10-year yield's sensitivity to inflation and activity data surprises last year was the highest in more than 20 years, according to Goldman Sachs. Although inflation has fallen, growth fears have ebbed, and the Federal Reserve has started cutting interest rates, these sensitivities persist. Again, especially in Treasuries. While equities' sensitivity to inflation surprises has fallen as price pressures have cooled, it remains high by historical standards. And stocks' sensitivity to growth surprises, though still modest, has begun to tick up to near pandemic-era levels. What does this mean for the coming year? While benchmark gauges of implied equity and bond volatility are muted, markets are in a more tenuous position than they were a year ago. By many measures, such as pricing, sentiment and valuations, they are extremely stretched. U.S. stocks have never been riding higher or represented a bigger share of the global market cap, and the Fed's 100 basis points of interest rate cuts since September have been met with a counterintuitive 100-basis-point rise in the 10-year Treasury yield. Does this mean America's key markets are primed for correction? Maybe. But what's easier to say with confidence is that we're going to see wider intra-day trading ranges and short-term reversals as investors contend with the biggest wild card of all: Trump's agenda. 'VOLATILITY MAN' History shows there is a "solid" relationship between macro and market volatility, as Citi's Stuart Kaiser points out. And with the world still in the dark as to how Trump's trade and tariff policies will pan out and how the Fed will respond, macro uncertainty is alive and well. Indeed, the two biggest "tail risks" for world markets cited in Bank of America's latest fund manager survey were "global trade war triggers recession" and "inflation causes Fed to hike." Both captured 37% of respondents' votes, significantly more than the 10% garnered by "geopolitical conflict," the third most-cited risk. "With numerous large policy shifts on the horizon, markets should be prepared for a lot more volatility ahead," Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos said on Monday. It is true that the initial year of Trump's first term, 2017, turned out to be a good one for Wall Street, as the S&P 500 index rose 19%, despite Trump's unpredictable actions. But that was a period of low inflation, low interest rates, and solid growth. Such low macro volatility is unlikely to be replicated this time. And given the stretched nature of today's markets, even modest economic surprises could spark big moves. Just look at the sharp swings in U.S. stocks and the dollar on Monday in response to a media report – later dismissed by Trump – implying that his proposed tariff regime would be less severe than feared. But even if macro "vol" does increase, will it be enough to puncture the generally bullish 2025 market consensus? Perhaps not, suggests Phil Suttle, a Washington-based economist. "(Markets) will be quite volatile but without much significant net direction, as the perceived odds of these different (tariff) scenarios oscillate," Suttle wrote on Monday in a note titled "Volatility Man." It is also possible that investors will increasingly ignore Trump's social media posts on markets, economic policy or the Fed, as they eventually did in his first term, especially if real-world economic indicators remain stable. But it's far too early for that right now. Given the combination of stretched markets and an unpredictable commander in chief, markets will feature a lot of sound and fury in 2025. It could be a bumpy ride. (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/trump-trade-uncertainty-exposes-stretched-markets-volatility-shocks-mcgeever-2025-01-07/
2025-01-07 12:43
SEOUL, Jan 7 (Reuters) - South Korea's financial regulator has asked prosecutors to conduct an investigation into Korea Zinc (010130.KS) , opens new tab over allegations that its now scrapped plan to issue new shares involved unfair practices, Korea Economic Daily said on Tuesday. In November, the chairman of Korea Zinc's board Yun B. Choi dropped a plan to issue new shares worth $1.8 billion that had sparked an investigation by the financial watchdog and a share sell-off. The world's top zinc refiner had announced the share plan in October in a move perceived by analysts as a strategy to fend off a takeover by Young Poong (000670.KS) , opens new tab and MBK Partners, just two days after Korea Zinc bought back shares at a higher price. The Financial Supervisory Service said in October it was investigating whether Korea Zinc had omitted its plan to issue new shares intentionally when it offered to buy back shares via a tender offer. The FSS referred the matter to prosecutors, alleging that Korea Zinc's management and board had violated capital market law, according to the report. A spokesperson at the FSS declined to comment on the story or to elaborate, as the probe is still underway. A Korea Zinc spokesperson had no immediate comment. Korea Zinc plans to hold a special shareholders' meeting on Jan. 23 to discuss the appointment of directors proposed by Young Poong and private equity firm MBK Partners amid an escalating fight for control of the company. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/regulator-requests-probe-into-korea-zinc-korea-economic-daily-reports-2025-01-07/
2025-01-07 12:33
SAO PAULO, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Brazilian miner Vale (VALE3.SA) , opens new tab said on Tuesday it has signed a memorandum of understanding with Swedish firm GreenIron to develop initiatives aimed at decarbonizing the mining industry supply chain in Brazil and Sweden. The partnership includes studies on the feasibility of a direct reduction plant to be operated by GreenIron in Brazil and the supply of Vale iron ore to GreenIron's commercial operations in Sandviken, Sweden, the mining giant said in a statement. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/vale-greeniron-explore-decarbonization-projects-brazil-sweden-2025-01-07/
2025-01-07 12:28
"Pooling" with EV makers lets other manufacturers cut averages Move could save firms hundreds of millions of euros in fines Tesla to sell credit to carmakers including Stellantis Polestar, Volvo Cars, Smart will sell extra credits to Mercedes MILAN, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Automakers facing tougher European Union 2025 emissions rules are planning to buy carbon credits from electric vehicle companies including Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab and Polestar to avoid hefty fines, an EU filing showed on Tuesday. Companies with lower EV sales can "pool" their emissions with segment leaders, purchasing emissions credits from other manufacturers to lower their overall averages. The move could save them hundreds of millions of euros in penalties. Stellantis , Toyota (7203.T) , opens new tab, Ford (F.N) , opens new tab, Mazda (7261.T) , opens new tab and Subaru (7270.T) , opens new tab are planning to pool carbon emissions with U.S. electric vehicle maker Tesla to comply with the EU's 2025 rules, the EU filing showed. Another pool is forming around Germany's Mercedes (MBGn.DE) , opens new tab, with Polestar, Volvo Cars (VOLCARb.ST) , opens new tab, and Smart, the same document showed. Automakers such as Tesla and Polestar, whose sales are 100% fully electric, can sell their surplus carbon credits to other manufacturers pooling with them. For Tesla, carbon credit sales accounted for almost 3% of its $72 billion total revenue in the first nine months of last year. A spokesperson for Polestar told Reuters that Polestar, Volvo Cars and Smart will sell their surplus emission credits to Mercedes. Sweden's Volvo Cars, which is majority-owned by China's Geely (GEELY.UL), declined in a statement to provide financial details of the pooling agreement it was entering. It said it expected to have a 'significant' CO2 surplus this year and was on track to meet the 2025 EU CO2 emission target. "Our global tailpipe emissions per vehicle have reduced by over 40% since 2018," it said. In the January to September period of last year, carbon credit sales made up about 0.3% of Volvo Cars' total revenue. FINES LOOMING According to Renault (RENA.PA) , opens new tab CEO Luca De Meo, who until December chaired European auto lobby ACEA, 2025 rules could cost European car producers some 15 billion euros ($15.6 billion). The carmakers' plans to pool carbon emissions come as ACEA is calling for relief on the EU 2025 rules. Some European governments, including Italy, have also called for a suspension of 2025 fines. The two pools are open to other carmakers, the document said. Potential newcomers will have to apply by Feb. 5 to the Tesla-led pool and by Feb. 7 to the Mercedes-led one. The deals are based on 2025 sales figures. The filing gave no breakdown on the volume of credits being bought by the companies involved. Mercedes said in a statement it was entering a pool to "close the remaining gap and achieve the European CO2 emission targets for our new car fleet in 2025". "Market conditions and our customers will determine the pace of our industry's transformation," it said. A spokesperson for Stellantis said on Tuesday the carmaker's participation in the pool would help it meet its EU targets for 2025 "while optimising our resources". "At the same time, we continue to focus on developing the innovative electric and low-emission technologies that are at the heart of our strategy," the spokesperson said. Stellantis' head of European operations, Jean-Philippe Imparato, last month said the automaker's aim was to pay no EU fines this year. Based on EU rules, Imparato said, the group's EV sales in Europe would have to increase from 12% of the current total to 21%, with potential fines of 300 million euros for any missed percentage point. A spokesperson for Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) , opens new tab on Tuesday reiterated that Europe's largest automaker saw 2025 EU emission targets as "particularly challenging", but that it would consider other measures to comply with them, including joining a pool, only at a later stage. Carmakers have to notify the EU Commission of pooling agreements by Dec. 31 of each year. Brussels can request extra information, but it will not assess their commercial terms. Pool participants must not share data or exchange information other than the average specific emissions of CO2, specific emissions target and total number of vehicles registered. ($1 = 0.9621 euros) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/stellantis-toyota-ford-mazda-subaru-plan-pool-co2-emissions-with-tesla-2025-01-07/
