2025-06-23 04:56

TOKYO, June 23 (Reuters) - Japan's Nippon Yusen (9101.T) , opens new tab and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines (9104.T) , opens new tab said on Monday they have instructed their vessels to minimise the time spent in the Gulf as they continue to transit the Strait of Hormuz following the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. The shipping companies said they are closely monitoring the situation and sharing updates with ships operating in the region. Sign up here. "We are instructing our vessels to shorten their time in the Persian Gulf whenever possible, depending on their schedules," a Nippon Yusen spokesperson said. "We will make decisions on each vessel's passage through the Strait of Hormuz on a flexible basis," he added. MOL's safety operation supporting centre in Tokyo has stepped up 24-hour surveillance, a company spokesperson said. "We are advising vessels operating in the area to exercise maximum caution and providing them with latest information," he said, adding that their vessels have also been instructed to minimise the time in the Gulf. President Donald Trump said the U.S. had "obliterated" Iran's main nuclear sites in strikes over the weekend, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself. Iran's Supreme National Security Council must make the final decision on whether to close the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's Press TV said on Sunday, after parliament was reported to have backed the measure. Iran has long used the threat of closing the Strait, through which around 20% of global oil and gas demand flows, as a way to ward off Western pressure which is now at its peak following the U.S. strikes. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/japanese-ships-transiting-strait-hormuz-minimise-time-gulf-2025-06-23/

2025-06-23 04:44

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole As if there wasn't enough uncertainty in the world already, President Trump has to get the United States embroiled in another Middle East conflict. It's not often a president announces an attack on another country via social media, or that the word "bombs" is used in all caps. Sign up here. The U.S. administration says it's not at war and it will not escalate if Iran makes peace. Then again, it also said it was not aiming at regime change in Iran, until Trump posted on social media about that very prospect. For now the ball is in Tehran's court and it has not yet struck at any U.S. site, although its parliament was reported to have approved an attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian media said such a move would need approval by the Supreme National Security Council. Polymarket even makes a book on the chance of Iran managing to close the Strait, and that's currently at 47%. So, suddenly every market commentator is an expert on how to close shipping lanes, the efficacy of bunker busting bombs and the intricacies of enriching uranium. The market position is to hope this U.S. intervention will not escalate, and perhaps might even make the region safer should Iran's nuclear ambitions really be set back by years. Oil is up almost 2%, but well off early five-month peaks as analysts note OPEC has plenty of extra supply to add if they want. Wall St share futures are down 0.3%, having started with losses of 1%, while European futures are off 0.4% or so. The dollar is marginally firmer on the euro and yen, reflecting the reliance of the EU and Japan on imported oil and LNG, and the U.S. status as a net exporter. Treasury yields are up slightly, so not many safe-haven bids there, while Fed fund futures are down a tick, likely on the risk a sustained rise in energy costs could add to inflationary pressure just as tariffs are being felt in prices. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set for a grilling on all this when he faces Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, along with queries on Trump's threats to fire him. It will also be interesting to see how Powell responds to Fed Governor Waller's sudden embrace of a July rate cut, when it seemed the FOMC choir had all been singing from the same cautious hymn sheet. Markets imply still only a 16% chance of a July easing, preferring a 70% wager on a September move. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: - EU and UK PMIs for June - Introductory remarks by ECB President Christine Lagarde - Appearances by Fed members Waller, Bowman, Goolsbee and Kugler https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-06-23/

2025-06-23 04:42

Fed's Bowman says rate cuts may need to come soon Iran response to US bombings seen limited Fed's Powell to testify to US Congress this week NEW YORK, June 23 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Monday after Federal Reserve policy maker Michelle Bowman said the U.S. central bank should consider interest rate cuts soon, and on rising expectations that Iran's response to the U.S. bombing of some nuclear sites in Iranwill be limited. Bowman, the Fed's vice chair for supervision, said the time to cut interest rates may be fast approaching as she has grown more worried about risks to the job market and less concerned that tariffs will cause an inflation problem. Sign up here. "Bowman is a well-known hawk, so any indication that she's giving as to moving towards easing and lower interest rates is going to put the dollar on the back foot," said Helen Given, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington. Fed funds futures are now pricing in 58 basis points of cuts this year, indicating expectations that two 25 basis points in cuts are certain, with a rising chance of a third reduction. Traders raised bets on more rate cuts after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Friday that the U.S. central bank should consider cutting rates at its next meeting, on July 29-30. They were pricing in 46 basis points of cuts this year before Waller's comments. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also said on Monday that thus far the surge in tariffs has had a more modest impact on the economy relative to what was expected. The dollar was boosted by the Fed’s “hawkish hold” on Wednesday, when the U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged while Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers expect inflation to rise over the summer due to the Trump administration’s tariffs. Powell will testify before the U.S. Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. The dollar also came under pressure on Monday as it appeared more likely that Iran's retaliation to the U.S. bombings would be limited. "It doesn't look like at the moment that Iran is going to get military support from Russia or China to retaliate," said Given. Iran's military said it carried out a missile attack on the Al Udeid U.S. airbase in Qatar on Monday. Iran said the attack was "devastating and powerful," but U.S. officials said no U.S. personnel were killed or injured. The U.S. currency was lifted earlier as investors unwound riskier positions on concerns about an expanding conflict in the Middle East. The dollar gains were largely due to traders unwinding trades that had used it as a funding currency, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. These included trades betting on strength in riskier emerging market currencies. The Japanese yen also pared most earlier weakness that was based on concerns about higher oil costs for Japan. Bank of America strategists said the dollar/yen can reprice higher if oil prices remain elevated, noting that Japan imports almost all of its oil, more than 90% of which comes from the Middle East, while the U.S. is largely energy-independent. The Japanese currency was last down 0.09% against the greenback at 146.22 per dollar and reached 148.02, the weakest since May 13. The dollar index fell 0.32% to 98.45. It earlier rose to 99.42, the highest since May 30. The euro gained 0.39% to $1.1567. The euro zone economy flatlined for a second month in June as the bloc's dominant services industry showed only a small sign of improvement and manufacturing displayed none at all, a survey showed on Monday. Sterling strengthened 0.51% to $1.3517 after earlier falling to $1.3367, the lowest since May 20. Data on Monday showed British business activity expanded modestly in June as new orders grew for the first time this year but employers cut jobs more quickly and worried about the conflict in the Middle East. In cryptocurrencies bitcoin gained 3.49% to $103,040. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-firms-markets-brace-iran-response-us-attacks-2025-06-23/

2025-06-23 02:58

MUMBAI, June 23 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is set to open weaker on Monday, pressured by the rise in crude oil prices and risk-off sentiment following the U.S. military action against Iran. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the currency will open around 86.75-86.80 per dollar, compared to 86.5850 in the previous session. Sign up here. Oil prices jumped to their highest level since January after the U.S. joined Israel in attacking Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, increasing concerns over the potential impact on energy supply. Tehran vowed to defend itself. The attack came just after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that such a decision would come “within the next two weeks". Fears that Iran may disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a key conduit for about a fifth of world crude flows, lifted oil prices and weighed on risk assets. Goldman Sachs warned that if oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz — a key chokepoint for crude shipments — were halved for a month and remained down by 10% for the following 11 months, Brent could temporarily spike to $110. Brent crude hit a high of $81.40, before retracing a part of its rally. The rupee, which had caught a bit of a breather on Friday, unfortunately has to contend with the U.S.-Iran news, a currency trader at a bank said, "and we’re back to watching if 87 breaks". An FX trader at another bank noted that the rise in oil prices was milder than expected, and attention now shifts to how Iran chooses to respond. "While Iran may feel it needs to retaliate to US strikes, blocking the Hormuz might be a step too far," ING Bank said in a note, and said that the price action in Asian trading suggests markets do not yet believe crude flows through Hormuz will be blocked. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.90; onshore one-month forward premium at 10.25 paisa ** Dollar index up at 98.92 ** Brent crude futures up 1.8% at $78.4 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.39% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $235.3 million worth of Indian shares on June 19 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $34.4 million worth of Indian bonds on June 19 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-under-fire-after-us-strikes-iran-jolt-oil-stoke-risk-aversion-2025-06-23/

2025-06-23 01:35

MUMBAI, June 23 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee and government bonds are poised to face pressure this week following a U.S. strike on Iran, raising concerns of higher oil prices and potential retaliation that could deepen the conflict in the Middle East. The rupee had closed at 86.5850 against the U.S. dollar on Friday, down 0.6% on the week. Sign up here. U.S. President Donald Trump said late on Saturday that the country had struck Iran's main nuclear sites, aligning with an Israeli offensive in a significant escalation of the ongoing Middle East tensions. Tehran called the attack a grave violation of international law and vowed to defend itself. In a televised address, Trump warned Iran against retaliating, stating that any response would trigger further attacks unless Iran agreed to pursue peace. Concerns over a potential escalation of the conflict had already driven oil prices higher this month, and analysts now anticipate an additional increase of $3 to $5 per barrel in reaction to the U.S. strikes. Brent crude oil futures closed at $77 per barrel on Friday, up nearly 4% on week. Elevated energy prices are a pain point for the Indian rupee and government bonds, as oil is a major component of India's import bill. A "flight to safety is likely to reinforce the dollar's strength against the Indian rupee and other major currencies," said Dilip Parmar, a foreign exchange research analyst at HDFC Securities. The rupee could weaken towards 87.50 in the near-term, Parmar added. Traders reckon that the Reserve Bank of India would likely step in to curb excessive volatility. The rupee may find immediate support around 87.50-87.60 but will remain acutely sensitive to developments in the Middle East, said a trader at a state-run bank. Foreign portfolio flows related to a upcoming large IPO alongside remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, scheduled for Tuesday, will be among other cues in focus for the rupee this week. Meanwhile, India's 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 bond yield ended at 6.3087% on Friday. Traders expect it to move in a range of 6.30% to 6.40% this week. "A $10 per barrel rise in crude could widen India's current account deficit by 0.3% of GDP and elevate inflation, eroding real yields," CR Forex said. Earlier this month, the RBI reduced its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year to 3.7% and cut its key lending rate by a steeper-than-expected 50 basis points. A big rate cut would assure stakeholders of India's focus on economic growth and aid in faster transmission, members of rate setting panel wrote in the June policy minutes. However, it reverted to a "neutral" stance from "accommodative", prompting analysts to forecast an end to the monetary easing cycle. "International uncertainties make RBI think it is necessary to front load the monetary easing to boost growth. But RBI may take longer to see the impact before implementing another cut going forward. Looking forward, we see RBI to stay on hold for next few months, said Alaa Bushehri, head of emerging market Debt, BNP Paribas Asset Management. KEY EVENTS: ** June HSBC India manufacturing, services and composite Flash PMI - June 23, Monday (10:30 a.m. IST) U.S. ** June S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite Flash PMI - June 23, Monday (7:15 p.m. IST) ** May existing home sales - June 23, Monday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** June consumer confidence - June 24, Tuesday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** May new home sales units - June 25, Wednesday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** May durable goods - June 26, Thursday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** January-March GDP final - June 26, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST)(Reuters poll -0.2%) ** Initial weekly jobless claims for week to June 16 - June 26, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** May personal consumption expenditure index, core PCE index - June 27, Friday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** June U Mich sentiment final - June 27, Friday (7:30 p.m. IST) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-rupee-bonds-under-pressure-us-strike-iran-deepens-middle-east-conflict-2025-06-23/

2025-06-23 00:15

Sell off after Iran refrains from disrupting oil supplies through Strait of Hormuz Oil gives up early 5% gain Trump tells everyone to work to keep oil price down HOUSTON, June 23 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled down more than 7% on Monday, losing more than $5 a barrel after Iran took no action to disrupt oil and gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but instead attacked a U.S. military base in Qatar in retaliation for U.S. attacks on its nuclear facilities. Brent crude futures closed down $5.53, or 7.2%, at $71.48 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) eased $5.53, or 7.2%, to $68.51. Sign up here. Brent's 7.2% drop was the steepest since August 2022. The benchmark traded in a $10 range, the widest since July 2022. Both benchmarks were down nearly 9% in after-hours trading. "Oil flows for now aren't the primary target and are likely not to be impacted, I think it's going to be military retaliation on U.S. bases and/or trying to hit more of the Israeli civilian targets," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital. Oil fell sharply after Iran retaliated against U.S. airstrikes on its main nuclear sites with a missile attack on the Al Udeid U.S. airbase in Qatar, the largest U.S. military installation in the Middle East. No U.S. personnel were killed or injured in Iran's attack, two U.S. officials told Reuters. In early trade in Asia, Brent rose almost 6% as investors worried the Iranian retaliation would involve disrupting oil exports from the Middle East Gulf. Iran has threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel off southern Iran that around a fifth of global oil supply passes through on its way to refineries worldwide. Iran, OPEC's third-largest crude producer, said the U.S. attack on its nuclear sites expanded the range of legitimate targets for its armed forces. A telegraphed attack on a well-defended U.S. base could be a first step in reducing tensions provided there are no U.S. casualties, Energy Aspects said in a post. "Unless there are indications of further Iranian retaliation or escalation by Israel/the US then we may see some geopolitical risk premium come out of the price in subsequent days," it said. There was no interruption to QatarEnergy shipments or production after the attack, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said, and no other Iranian attack detected at any U.S. military base other than in Qatar, a U.S. military official told Reuters. Qatar is one of the world's largest exporters of liquefied natural gas, and all its shipments pass through the Strait. Iraq's state-run Basra Oil Company said international oil majors including BP (BP.L) , opens new tab, TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab and Eni (ENI.MI) , opens new tab had evacuated some staff members working in oilfields. "In one sense, we've seen this movie before. All the geopolitical tensions we've seen in the Middle East, whether it's Israel, Iran or others, we have yet to see the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, even though the issue always rears its ugly head," said Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. At least two supertankers made U-turns near the strait following the U.S. military strikes on Iran, ship tracking data shows, as more than a week of violence in the region prompted vessels to speed, pause, or alter their journeys. U.S. President Donald Trump expressed a desire to see oil prices kept down amid fears that ongoing fighting in the Middle East could cause them to spike. On his Truth Social platform, he addressed the U.S. Department of Energy, encouraging "drill, baby, drill" and saying, "I mean now. Investors are still weighing up what geopolitical risk premium to put on oil prices. HSBC expects Brent prices to spike above $80 a barrel to factor in a higher probability of a strait closure, but to recede again if the threat of disruption does not materialise, the bank said on Monday. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-hits-five-month-high-after-us-hits-key-iranian-nuclear-sites-2025-06-23/