2025-12-09 09:27
ABU DHABI, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Hedge fund Balyasny Asset Management's managing partner said on Tuesday that the largest tail risk for the year ahead is if artificial intelligence surprises on the upside or the downside. Dmitry Balyasny, managing partner and the firm's CIO, said if there was a fall-off in demand and AI companies --- especially so-called hyper-scalers -- changed their spending plans because they did not achieve the monetization they needed, this would be a surprise to the downside. Sign up here. Also, an outside risk the hedge fund manager was watching for was if the AI industry took off faster than expected. This could cause job losses before employees were able to retrain for other opportunities, Balyasny said during a fireside chat at Abu Dhabi Finance Week. "Either of those scenarios could create some instability, but I think the more likely outcome is that it continues to grow the way that it has," he said. Balyasny Asset Management manages $31 billion. Balyasny, discussing his newly office location in Abu Dhabi, said the city was at an earlier stage of development than New York or London but said the city was growing as a financial centre. He pointed to how much money was moving into the region, how talent was attracted to the lifestyle in Abu Dhabi and the city's commitment to AI and technology. The hedge fund returned 2.5% in November and is up 15.3% for the year so far, Reuters reported last week. https://www.reuters.com/business/hedge-fund-managing-partner-dmitry-balyasny-taps-ai-largest-tail-risk-2026-2025-12-09/
2025-12-09 08:47
ABU DHABI, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Markets roiled by geopolitical tensions and diverging interest rates present money-making opportunities for the coming year, the heads of hedge funds Man Group and Brevan Howard and the Abu Dhabi Investment Council's chief investor said on Tuesday. U.S. President Donald Trump's return to the White House and an erratic trade policy have whipsawed world markets this year, just as investors try to assess the direction of major central banks such as the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan. Sign up here. "With pain comes opportunity," Shiv Srinivasan, who oversees investing for the Abu Dhabi state-backed fund, told attendees at the Abu Dhabi Finance Week conference, noting the rising market volatility brought on by geopolitical events globally and upcoming elections. "So we like macro strategies and those that tend to be long volatility," he said. Srinivasan's hedge fund portfolio is up 13% so far this year, and he favours macroeconomic and trend hedge funds for 2026. "Those strategies did really well for us in 2022, along with CTAs," he said. As stock markets plunged more than 20% in 2022, trend and macro funds returned in some cases over 40%. CTAs, or trend funds, are systematic traders which take small positions in many asset classes to systematically find rising and falling asset prices, and buy them as they go up and sell them as they fall. London-listed Man Group's CEO Robyn Grew, who oversees several macro and trend funds, said volatility provided good trading opportunities. "Yes, we like a bit of volatility. Yes, we like a bit of dispersion," said Grew, who became the CEO of the $214 billion investment manager in 2023. "Hedge funds, alternatives tend to talk about volatility providing opportunities, and I think they do," she added. Aron Landy, the CEO of Brevan Howard, which manages more than $30 billion, said he expected global markets' differing asset values, or dispersion, to grow. "I can't imagine any scenario where the U.S. administration turns around and declares China their new best friend," said Landy. He added that he also saw a big opportunity in the differing value in global interest rates, as well as in cryptocurrency investing. "Of course, it's volatile, but the biggest risk in crypto is to have no exposure at all," said Landy. https://www.reuters.com/markets/wealth/hedge-funds-state-backed-investors-bet-volatility-2026-2025-12-09/
2025-12-09 07:26
Prices likely to hover in near-term tight range, analysts say Russia-Ukraine peace talks still in progress Investors price in high possibility of Fed rate cut on Wednesday NEW YORK, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday after falling 2% in the previous session, with investors keeping a close eye on peace talks to end Russia's war in Ukraine, concerns about ample supply and a looming decision on U.S. interest rates. Brent crude futures settled down 55 cents, or 0.88%, at $61.94 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 63 cents, or 1.07%, to $58.25 a barrel. Sign up here. Both contracts fell by more than $1 a barrel on Monday after Iraq restored production at Lukoil's West Qurna 2 oilfield, one of the world's largest. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's government will share a revised peace plan with the U.S. after talks in London between Zelenskiy and the leaders of France, Germany and Britain. Peace between Ukraine and Russia could lead to the removal of international sanctions on Russian companies and free up restricted oil supply. "Many in the market don't feel that Russia is serious about a peace agreement and they're just simply buying time," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. Power on Tuesday was out for roughly half of the residents in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv after the latest Russian attacks on the country's energy system. Aiming to cut Moscow's oil revenue, the Group of Seven countries and the European Union are in talks to replace a price cap on Russian oil exports with a full maritime services ban, sources familiar with the matter said. Oil cargoes at sea, which have increased by 2.5 million barrels every day since mid-August and are still climbing, continue to put pressure on oil prices, said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB. "The only reason why Brent crude hasn't fallen faster and deeper is because of the U.S. sanctions related to Rosneft and Lukoil," he said. FOCUS TURNS TO IEA REPORT, FED DECISION The next International Energy Agency report should hold clues on the global supply outlook. "The next (market) driver is likely to be the IEA monthly oil market report for December, released on 11 December, which has predicted a record surplus in the oil market in 2026, highlighted in previous outlook reports," said Kelvin Wong, senior market analyst at OANDA. If the IEA continues to flag surplus risk in the oil market in its December report, WTI crude could drift downwards to test the range support zone at $56.80 to $57.50 a barrel, he added. U.S. crude inventories fell by 4.78 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks rose by 7 million barrels and distillate inventories rose by 1.03 million barrels, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Weekly data from the Energy Information Administration, the statistical arm of the U.S. Department of Energy, will be released on Wednesday. Also on the radar is the Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday, with markets pricing in an 87% probability of a quarter-percentage-point interest rate reduction. Lower interest rates typically are a positive driver for oil demand given the decrease in borrowing costs, though some analysts were cautious about how much impact this could have on oil prices for now. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-ukraine-peace-talks-us-rate-decision-spotlight-2025-12-09/
2025-12-09 07:06
Divestment or spin-off could raise shares by 40%, says source Siemens Energy: values constructive input on creating value Wind unit recovering after quality crisis from two years ago FRANKFURT, Dec 9 (Reuters) - U.S.-based investor Ananym Capital has taken a stake in German power equipment manufacturer Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE) , opens new tab and is asking the group's management to review its struggling wind division, a person familiar with the matter said on Tuesday. According to Ananym, a divestment or spin-off of the business could raise Siemens Energy's shares by around 40%, the person said. Sign up here. The source did not disclose the size of the stake. Ananym was not immediately available for comment outside business hours. Siemens Energy said in a statement on Tuesday that it "values constructive input for creating sustainable value for shareholders, employees, customers and partners," and that it addressed the development of its wind unit at a recent capital markets day. WIND BUSINESS IS STRUGGLING Ananym was founded last year by Charlie Penner, the architect of a massive three-board-seat victory at Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab in 2021, and former P2 partner Alex Silver. Siemens Gamesa, Siemens Energy's wind division, is still recovering from a quality crisis from two years ago, and posted an operating loss of 1.36 billion euros ($1.58 billion) in the fiscal year ended September. The unit's ongoing losses have repeatedly driven calls by investors to review or even sell the business, but Siemens Energy has so far committed to turning the business around, touting the long-term prospects for wind energy overall. The Financial Times first reported Ananym's engagement. ($1 = 0.8587 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ananym-capital-builds-stake-siemens-energy-launches-activist-campaign-ft-reports-2025-12-09/
2025-12-09 07:06
BRUSSELS, Dec 9 (Reuters) - This year is set to be the world's second or third-warmest on record, potentially surpassed only by 2024'S record-breaking heat, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said on Tuesday. The data is the latest from C3S following last month's COP30 climate summit, where governments failed to agree to substantial new measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, reflecting strained geopolitics as the U.S. rolls back its efforts, and some countries seek to weaken CO2-cutting measures. Sign up here. This year will also likely round out the first three-year period in which the average global temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial period, when humans began burning fossil fuels on an industrial scale, C3S said in a monthly bulletin. "These milestones are not abstract – they reflect the accelerating pace of climate change," said Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at C3S. Extreme weather continued to hit regions around the globe this year. Typhoon Kalmaegi killed more than 200 people in the Philippines last month. Spain suffered its worst wildfires for three decades because of weather conditions that scientists confirmed were made more likely by climate change. Last year was the planet's hottest on record. While natural weather patterns mean temperatures fluctuate year to year, scientists have documented a clear warming trend in global temperatures over time, and confirmed that the main cause of this warming is greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels. The last 10 years have been the 10 warmest years since records began, the World Meteorological Organization said earlier this year. The global threshold of 1.5 Celsius is the limit of warming which countries vowed under the 2015 Paris climate agreement to try to prevent, to avoid the worst consequences of warming. The world has not yet technically breached that target - which refers to an average global temperature of 1.5 Celsius over decades. But the U.N. said this year that the 1.5 Celsius goal can no longer realistically be met and urged governments to cut CO2 emissions faster, to limit overshooting the target. C3S's records go back to 1940, and are cross-checked with global temperature records going back to 1850. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/2025-will-be-worlds-second-or-third-hottest-year-record-eu-scientists-say-2025-12-09/
2025-12-09 07:05
PARIS, Dec 9 (Reuters) - French fund Eiffel Investment Group has raised 1.2 billion euros ($1.40 billion) for a new energy-focused fund, named Eiffel Energy Transition III, as Europe aims to get more financing for environmentally-friendly energy projects. "Eiffel is a key partner for renewable energy developers," said Fabrice Dumonteil, Chairman of Eiffel Investment Group. Sign up here. The energy-focused fund, named Eiffel Energy Transition III will provide short-term debt to green energy assets for example to finance their construction. Even though rising electricity costs have hindered the decarbonisation plans of some countries such as Britain, many governments and companies remain committed to investing more in projects such as hydrogen and solar power. ($1 = 0.8584 euros) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eiffel-investment-group-raises-12-bln-euros-new-energy-focused-fund-2025-12-09/
