2025-11-06 12:44
LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said Bank Rate was likely to continue to be on a "gradual downward path" after a 5-4 vote kept the central bank's benchmark rate at 4.0% on Thursday. "We are likely to continue to be on a gradual downward path for Bank Rate," Bailey told a press conference. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/boe-governor-bailey-sees-gradual-downward-path-rates-2025-11-06/
2025-11-06 12:37
Nov 6 (Reuters) - ConocoPhillips (COP.N) , opens new tab raised its quarterly dividend and full-year production forecast on Thursday, after posting third-quarter earnings above estimates thanks to higher output and lower costs that offset weaker oil prices. Shares of the largest U.S. independent oil and gas producer rose 1.5% in premarket trade. Sign up here. The company's push to streamline operations and cut costs, including more than $1 billion in expected savings from its Marathon Oil acquisition, helped cushion the impact of a 13% drop in Brent crude prices from a year earlier. The $22.5 billion deal, completed last year, strengthened the company's U.S. shale portfolio and added assets in the Anadarko Basin and Equatorial Guinea. Higher contributions from U.S. onshore oilfields including the Delaware and Eagle Ford basins boosted production for the third quarter to 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), an increase of 482,000 boepd from the same period a year ago. For the fourth quarter, the company expects output of between 2.30 million and 2.34 million boepd. ConocoPhillips increased its ordinary dividend by 8% to $0.84 per share and lifted its full-year 2025 production forecast to 2.375 million boepd, up from a prior range of 2.35–2.37 million boepd. It also cut its 2025 operating cost forecast to $10.6 billion from as much as $10.9 billion. In its preliminary outlook for 2026, ConocoPhillips targeted about $12 billion in capital spending, $10.2 billion in operating costs and up to 2% underlying production growth, as the company advances large-scale projects including Alaska's Willow development and U.S. Gulf Coast LNG ventures. It posted an adjusted profit of $1.61 per share for the quarter ended September 30, compared with analysts' average estimate of $1.43 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/conocophillips-beats-quarterly-profit-estimates-higher-production-2025-11-06/
2025-11-06 12:30
By William Schomberg, David Milliken and Suban Abdulla LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The Bank of England kept borrowing costs on hold on Thursday but a narrow vote and signs that Governor Andrew Bailey might soon join those seeking a rate cut keeps the door open for a move after the government's budget later this month. Sign up here. Mindful of Britain's still high headline inflation rate, the nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to keep the central bank's benchmark Bank Rate at 4.0%, the BoE said. Most economists polled by Reuters last week had predicted a 6-3 decision by the MPC to leave Bank Rate unchanged. While Bailey was among those who decided to keep borrowing costs unchanged, he was the only one of the five who felt that overall inflation risks had moved down. However, he felt there was "value in waiting for further evidence" of this in upcoming economic developments this year, the BoE said. BOE SAYS UK INFLATION HAS PEAKED Britain's inflation of 3.8% remains the highest among the Group of Seven major advanced economies and the BoE's benchmark interest rate is double the European Central Bank's, adding to the challenge for the government to speed up the economy. However, inflation unexpectedly held steady in September and recent jobs data has also hinted at weakening price pressures. The MPC said it believed inflation had peaked and would fall in data for October and November as weaker economic growth and a worsening jobs market took their toll on demand. "We still think rates are on a gradual path downwards, but we need to be sure that inflation is on track to return to our 2% target before we cut them again," Bailey said. Thursday's decision represented the first pause in the BoE's already-gradual, once-every-three-months pace of rate cuts which started in August 2024. The BoE forecast that inflation would remain above its 2% target until the second quarter of 2027 - the same as in August - although it did forecast inflation would be slightly lower then, at 1.9%, and also flagged the weakness in the jobs market. In another sign of its worries about an economic slowdown, the central bank expressed concern that households might not use their high levels of savings to spend more. GUIDANCE CHANGE As part of a wider overhaul of how it explains its thinking, the MPC tweaked its key message about the outlook for rates. A line from previous statements that it thought "a gradual and careful approach" to cutting rates was appropriate was replaced by the phrase: "If progress on disinflation continues, Bank Rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path." The decision to keep rates on hold was not a surprise to investors. Pricing of interest rate futures on Wednesday had implied only a one-in-three chance of a quarter-point cut. Bailey said that current market pricing was close to "a fair description of my position at present". However the tight 5-4 vote split and the signs that Bailey might soon switch camps was likely to boost bets on a rate cut at the MPC's next meeting in mid-December. Investors on Wednesday were pricing a roughly 60% chance of a reduction in Bank Rate next month. By then, the MPC will have seen official inflation and jobs data for October and November and it will know the extent of tax increases which are widely expected in finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget. She is expected to announce broad tax increases in her budget on November 26, possibly weighing on the economy. For the first time the BoE published summaries of the views of individual MPC members as part of a revamp of its forecasting process and the way it explains its thinking after being widely criticised when British inflation topped 11% in October 2022. It forecast economic growth of 1.5% for this year, up from 1.25% in its previous forecast, and 1.2% for 2026, little changed from the August projections. Bailey and other MPC members are due to give a press conference at 1230 GMT. (([email protected] , opens new tab)) Keywords: BRITAIN BOE/ https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-england-keeps-rates-hold-knife-edge-vote-that-hints-cut-soon-2025-11-06/
2025-11-06 12:30
Monetary Policy Committee votes 5-4 to keep Bank Rate at 4% Inflation peaked at 3.8% but seen above target until mid 2027 Governor Bailey wants 'further evidence' before backing cut Investors see nearly 2 in 3 chance of rate cut on December 18 Economy forecast to grow modest 1.2% next year, unemployment up LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The Bank of England kept borrowing costs on hold on Thursday, but a narrow vote and signs that Governor Andrew Bailey might soon join those seeking a rate cut boosted the prospect of a move in December once the government's budget has been unveiled. Mindful of Britain's still-high headline inflation rate, the nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to keep the central bank's benchmark Bank Rate at 4%. Sign up here. Most economists polled by Reuters last week had predicted a 6-3 decision by the MPC to leave it unchanged. The MPC saw a bigger risk of weaker demand in the economy while the chance of inflation getting stuck too high had diminished, the central bank said. Bailey was among those who decided to keep borrowing costs unchanged but he was the only one of those five who felt that overall inflation risks had moved down. He said the inflation outlook was at "quite an important moment" but he felt there was "value in waiting for further evidence" over coming weeks. Deputy Governors Sarah Breeden and Dave Ramsden were in the bigger-than-expected minority of four seeking a rate cut. For Breeden, it was the first time she had voted against the majority since she joined the MPC two years ago. The pound shed around a third of a cent against the U.S. dollar before recovering and short-dated British government yields fell by a relatively modest three basis points after the announcement. The MPC's next rate decision is due to be announced on December 18. Investors were pricing a roughly 65% chance of a reduction in Bank Rate next month. By then the BoE will have seen two more sets of inflation and jobs data along with details of finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget on November 26 that is expected to include broad tax increases, which could weigh on the economy. "It is now a question of timing, and whether a quicker pace of policy easing will be needed. A December rate cut certainly seems more likely after today," said Ellie Henderson, an economist with bank Investec. Deutsche Bank's Chief UK Economist Sanjay Raja said he believed the BoE was on course to cut rates next month and then twice more to take Bank Rate to 3.25% by the summer. BOE SAYS UK INFLATION HAS PEAKED Britain's inflation of 3.8% remains the highest among the Group of Seven major advanced economies and the BoE's benchmark interest rate is double the European Central Bank's, adding to the challenge for the government to speed up the economy. However, inflation unexpectedly held steady in September and recent jobs data has also hinted at weakening price pressures. The MPC said it believed inflation had peaked and would fall in data for October and November as weaker economic growth and a worsening jobs market took their toll on demand. "We still think rates are on a gradual path downwards, but we need to be sure that inflation is on track to return to our 2% target before we cut them again," Bailey said. Thursday's decision represented the first pause in the BoE's already-gradual, once-every-three-months pace of rate cuts which started in August 2024. The BoE forecast that inflation will remain above its 2% target until the second quarter of 2027 - the same as in August - although it did forecast inflation would be slightly lower then, at 1.9%, and also flagged the weakness in the jobs market. In another sign of its worries about an economic slowdown, the central bank expressed concern that households might not use their high levels of savings to spend more and slightly raised its forecasts for unemployment over the next three years. GUIDANCE CHANGE As part of a wider overhaul of how it explains its thinking, the MPC tweaked its key message about the outlook for rates. A line from previous statements that it thought "a gradual and careful approach" to cutting rates was appropriate was replaced by the phrase: "If progress on disinflation continues, Bank Rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path." The decision to keep rates on hold was not a surprise to investors. Pricing of interest rate futures on Wednesday had implied only a one-in-three chance of a quarter-point cut. Bailey said that current market pricing - which implies two or maybe three quarter-point rate cuts by the end of next year - was close to "a fair description of my position at present". For the first time the BoE published summaries of the views of individual MPC members as part of a revamp of its forecasting process and the way it explains its thinking after being widely criticised when British inflation topped 11% in October 2022. It forecast economic growth of 1.5% for this year, up from 1.2% in its previous forecast, and 1.2% for 2026, unchanged from the August projections. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-england-keeps-rates-hold-knife-edge-vote-that-hints-december-cut-2025-11-06/
2025-11-06 12:28
Policymakers voted 5-4 to keep interest rates at 4% Analysts had expected a 6-3 split in favour of unchanged rates Focus turns to UK budget on November 26 LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Sterling trimmed earlier gains on Thursday, moving back towards its lowest in months, after the Bank of England kept borrowing costs on hold, although a narrow vote and signs that Governor Andrew Bailey might soon join those seeking a policy easing kept the door open for a December cut. Mindful of Britain's still-high headline inflation rate, the nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to keep the central bank's benchmark Bank Rate at 4.0%, the BoE said. Sign up here. Most economists polled by Reuters last week predicted a 6-3 decision to leave the rate unchanged. Earlier this morning, markets were pricing a one-in-three chance of a cut. FOCUS ON THE BUDGET Sterling was 0.16% higher at $1.3072, having been up 0.3% before the decision, after hitting a seven-month low of $1.3011 on Wednesday. The pound weakened a touch against the euro , which rose 0.1% to 88.13 pence after touching its highest since May 2023 on Wednesday. While Bailey was among those who decided to keep borrowing costs unchanged, he was the only one of the five who felt that overall inflation risks had moved down. However, he felt there was "value in waiting for further evidence" of this in upcoming economic developments this year, the BoE said. As part of a wider overhaul of how it explains its thinking, the MPC tweaked its key message about the outlook for rates. A line from previous statements that it thought "a gradual and careful approach" to cutting rates was appropriate was replaced by the phrase: "If progress on disinflation continues, Bank Rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path." Focus will be on what the central bank will do next month. By then, the BoE will have seen official inflation and jobs data for October and November and it will know the extent of tax increases which are widely expected in finance minister Rachel Reeves' November 26 budget. Reeves paved the way on Tuesday for broad tax rises to avoid a return to "austerity", framing her second annual budget as one of "hard choices" to protect public spending while reducing Britain's debt. “The BoE made the right call to leave rates unchanged today. While there has been some positive news on the inflation front in recent weeks, the bottom line is that headline inflation is running at 3.8% - almost twice the BoE’s target," said Zara Nokes, Global Market Analyst at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. "The balance of risks could shift next year if large near-term tax hikes are announced at the Autumn budget, but until there is more meaningful progress on bringing inflation down, the Bank must exercise a high degree of caution in lowering rates," Nokes added. Not everyone agrees. "The calculation is that it's best to wait until after the Budget before moving - no big risk in waiting six weeks is the assumption. But equally, I would argue why wait?" said Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-steadies-near-multi-month-lows-ahead-boe-decision-2025-11-06/
2025-11-06 12:21
2,700 suspicious transactions identified due to fault, central bank says Over 30 million transactions not properly monitored, it says Coinbase says errors quickly fixed, systems enhanced DUBLIN, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Ireland's central bank fined an Irish subsidiary of cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global (COIN.O) , opens new tab 21.5 million euros ($25 million) on Thursday for breaching anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist transaction monitoring obligations. The Irish regulator said the fine related to faults in the configuration of Coinbase Europe's transaction monitoring system, which resulted in more than 30 million transactions worth over 176 billion euros not being properly monitored over a 12-month period. Sign up here. It added that it took Coinbase almost three years to fully complete the monitoring of the affected transactions, leading to the reporting of 2,708 suspicious transactions to the authorities for further analysis and potential investigation. The transactions contained suspicions associated with serious criminal activities including money laundering, fraud, drug trafficking, cyber attacks and child sexual exploitation, the central bank said. COINBASE SAYS IT INADVERTENTLY MADE CODING ERRORS Coinbase Europe provides crypto asset and wallet services to customers globally to facilitate their use of the Coinbase Group’s trading platform to buy and sell crypto assets, the central bank said. Coinbase said in a statement that it inadvertently made three coding errors in its transaction monitoring system that caused five of the 21 scenarios which look for certain red flags to not fully screen all transactions in 2021 and 2022. It said it fixed the coding errors within two to three weeks of detecting them. As part of the settlement, Coinbase and the central bank cannot say that the suspicious transactions cumulatively valued at 13 million euros actually resulted in criminal activity, it said. Coinbase added that it has taken steps to prevent the types of errors from happening again, including enhancing its testing and monitoring. The fine was reduced from 30.7 million euros by way of a settlement discount and based on Coinbase Europe's average annual revenue of 417 million euros for the period. "The failure of such a system within any financial institution creates an opportunity for criminals to evade detection – and criminals will take that opportunity," Irish Central Bank Deputy Governor Colm Kincaid said in a statement. "Crypto has particular technological features which, together with its anonymity-enhancing capabilities and cross-border nature, makes it especially attractive to criminals looking to move their funds." ($1 = 0.8575 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/irish-central-bank-fines-coinbase-europe-215-million-euros-2025-11-06/
