2025-11-06 13:42
Nov 6 (Reuters) - The U.S. jobless rate likely edged up in October to the highest in four years as the hiring rate for unemployed workers slowed and the rate of layoffs and other job separations increased, according to an estimate by the Chicago Fed released Thursday. The regional Fed bank estimated the unemployment rate climbed to 4.36% last month - 4.4% on the rounded basis typically reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics - from 4.35% in September. Sign up here. The bank has been providing twice-monthly estimates of the jobless rate since shortly before a now-record-long federal government shutdown cut off the flow of published reports on the economy from the BLS, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau. The last U.S. jobless figure published by the BLS, for August, put the rate at 4.3% - the highest since October 2021 when it was 4.5%. "The October 2025 reference week (October 12th through October 18th) for the BLS survey used to estimate the unemployment rate overlapped with the federal government shutdown that began in early October," the Chicago Fed said. "This special factor is likely to be only partially reflected in the October 2025 Final release of the Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators. The Congressional Budget Office expects that as many as 750,000 federal government workers have been furloughed during the government shutdown, representing up to 0.4 percent of the civilian labor force (as of August 2025 data)." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-unemployment-rate-rounds-up-44-october-chicago-fed-estimates-2025-11-06/
2025-11-06 12:54
LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The Bank of England kept rates unchanged on Thursday in a tight decision following recent signs that inflation is slowing, which brought the pound below the highs of the day, while boosting UK government bond prices. The pound was last up 0.2% on the day at $1.30799, from around $1.30925 prior to the decision. It weakened a touch against the euro, which was up 0.1% at 88.1 pence, from 87.98 earlier . Sign up here. British government bond yields fell, with two-year gilt yields last trading at 3.78% , down 3 basis points on the day and down from 3.802% previously, while the blue-chip FTSE-100 index (.FTSE) , opens new tab was down 0.2%, having pared some of the day's losses. COMMENTS: SANJAY RAJA, CHIEF UK ECONOMIST, DEUTSCHE BANK, LONDON: "We continue to think that the MPC will cut Bank Rate once more this year – taking Bank Rate to 3.75% by year-end. We also maintain that Bank Rate will likely settle closer to 3.25% by summer next year. The big question now is whether there is enough dovish momentum in the data to back a faster reduction in Bank Rate over the first half of next year." KIRSTINE KUNDBY-NIELSEN, ANALYST, DANSKE BANK, COPENHAGEN: "The bar for a December cut is definitely low, with only one vote needed to tip the scale. With significant tightening in the budget in a couple of weeks' time, this should further underpin this view of the next cut being delivered in December. "For sterling, I still think we are in for more weakness with a dovish sentiment still present in the MPC. The cut is just postponed to the next meeting." KENNETH BROUX, HEAD OF CORPORATE RESEARCH FX AND RATES, SOCIETE GENERALE, LONDON: "There's certainly a dovish tone, for example they are talking about the upside risk to inflation decreasing, and that along with the voting split gives it a dovish feel. December is certainly in play, but not a done deal." "It's going to be tough for the pound, but good for rates, especially at the front end." NEIL WILSON, UK INVESTOR STRATEGIST, SAXO MARKETS, LONDON: "No surprise cut, no fireworks - the market called this one, just. Andrew Bailey cast the deciding vote to hold rates unchanged at 4.0% in a 5/4 split with four members preferring to cut. The calculation is that it's best to wait until after the Budget before moving - no big risk in waiting six weeks is the assumption. But equally, I would argue: why wait?" MICHAEL BROWN, SENIOR RESEARCH STRATEGIST, PEPPERSTONE, LONDON: "On the whole, it’s a more dovish decision than expected, it’s the narrowest possible margin in terms of the 5-4 vote." "(There is) also a bit more of an explicit easing bias to the statement, having got rid of this reference to gradual and careful, and instead explicitly saying if there is further progress on disinflation then we are going to continue cutting rates." "This is a Bank of England that is fairly confident that inflation has peaked, and it’s a Bank of England that clearly wants to continue lowering rates." NEIL MEHTA, INVESTMENT GRADE PORTFOLIO MANAGER, RBC BLUEBAY ASSET MANAGEMENT, LONDON: "The market was pricing in a 25% chance of a cut today, but it was always going to be a difficult one ahead of the Budget. The fact that it was 5-4 means that Bailey really does have the swing vote here and the reason for a quite muted market reaction is that focus has shifted to December. Bailey's comments do read more tilted towards the dovish side. If we have another month where wage and inflation remain in line I think December is very much a goal and Bailey will be tilted towards swinging that 5-4 towards a cut." ZARA NOKES, GLOBAL MARKET ANALYST, JPMORGAN ASSET MANAGEMENT, LONDON: “While there has been some positive news on the inflation front in recent weeks, the bottom line is that headline inflation is running at 3.8% - almost twice the BoE’s target." "On the growth side, the labour market is cooling, but other economic data such as retail sales and consumer confidence paint a more resilient picture of the UK economy. The balance of risks could shift next year if large near-term tax hikes are announced at the Autumn budget. But until there is more meaningful progress on bringing inflation down, the Bank must exercise a high degree of caution in lowering rates.” GEORGE BROWN, SENIOR ECONOMIST, SCHRODERS, LONDON: "Holding rates today was the right decision, with inflation still nearly double the 2% target. The Bank will be in a stronger position after the dust settles from the budget, armed with additional jobs and inflation data, to judge whether further easing is warranted in December." "A cautious approach remains appropriate given the risk that high inflation becomes entrenched, due to sticky wage growth and subdued productivity. However, this may change if reports the Chancellor intends to double her fiscal headroom to 20 billion pounds($26.84 billion), through fiscal tightening in the region of 40 billion pounds, are true. Alongside mooted tax cuts on household energy bills, if these measures materialise, they could create scope for the Bank to cut multiple times next year." MATHIEU SAVARY, CHIEF STRATEGIST, BCA RESEARCH, MONTREAL: "The BoE opted for a dovish hold. The MPC is not rushed and is waiting for the Treasury’s Autumn Statement, but the labour market is clearly softening and wage inflation is slowing faster than the Committee expected this summer. With fiscal tightening ahead, a December cut remains our base case. We stay overweight gilts.” ($1 = 0.7451 pounds) https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/view-bank-england-keeps-rates-hold-knife-edge-vote-2025-11-06/
2025-11-06 12:44
LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said Bank Rate was likely to continue to be on a "gradual downward path" after a 5-4 vote kept the central bank's benchmark rate at 4.0% on Thursday. "We are likely to continue to be on a gradual downward path for Bank Rate," Bailey told a press conference. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/boe-governor-bailey-sees-gradual-downward-path-rates-2025-11-06/
2025-11-06 12:37
Nov 6 (Reuters) - ConocoPhillips (COP.N) , opens new tab raised its quarterly dividend and full-year production forecast on Thursday, after posting third-quarter earnings above estimates thanks to higher output and lower costs that offset weaker oil prices. Shares of the largest U.S. independent oil and gas producer rose 1.5% in premarket trade. Sign up here. The company's push to streamline operations and cut costs, including more than $1 billion in expected savings from its Marathon Oil acquisition, helped cushion the impact of a 13% drop in Brent crude prices from a year earlier. The $22.5 billion deal, completed last year, strengthened the company's U.S. shale portfolio and added assets in the Anadarko Basin and Equatorial Guinea. Higher contributions from U.S. onshore oilfields including the Delaware and Eagle Ford basins boosted production for the third quarter to 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), an increase of 482,000 boepd from the same period a year ago. For the fourth quarter, the company expects output of between 2.30 million and 2.34 million boepd. ConocoPhillips increased its ordinary dividend by 8% to $0.84 per share and lifted its full-year 2025 production forecast to 2.375 million boepd, up from a prior range of 2.35–2.37 million boepd. It also cut its 2025 operating cost forecast to $10.6 billion from as much as $10.9 billion. In its preliminary outlook for 2026, ConocoPhillips targeted about $12 billion in capital spending, $10.2 billion in operating costs and up to 2% underlying production growth, as the company advances large-scale projects including Alaska's Willow development and U.S. Gulf Coast LNG ventures. It posted an adjusted profit of $1.61 per share for the quarter ended September 30, compared with analysts' average estimate of $1.43 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/conocophillips-beats-quarterly-profit-estimates-higher-production-2025-11-06/
2025-11-06 12:30
By William Schomberg, David Milliken and Suban Abdulla LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The Bank of England kept borrowing costs on hold on Thursday but a narrow vote and signs that Governor Andrew Bailey might soon join those seeking a rate cut keeps the door open for a move after the government's budget later this month. Sign up here. Mindful of Britain's still high headline inflation rate, the nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to keep the central bank's benchmark Bank Rate at 4.0%, the BoE said. Most economists polled by Reuters last week had predicted a 6-3 decision by the MPC to leave Bank Rate unchanged. While Bailey was among those who decided to keep borrowing costs unchanged, he was the only one of the five who felt that overall inflation risks had moved down. However, he felt there was "value in waiting for further evidence" of this in upcoming economic developments this year, the BoE said. BOE SAYS UK INFLATION HAS PEAKED Britain's inflation of 3.8% remains the highest among the Group of Seven major advanced economies and the BoE's benchmark interest rate is double the European Central Bank's, adding to the challenge for the government to speed up the economy. However, inflation unexpectedly held steady in September and recent jobs data has also hinted at weakening price pressures. The MPC said it believed inflation had peaked and would fall in data for October and November as weaker economic growth and a worsening jobs market took their toll on demand. "We still think rates are on a gradual path downwards, but we need to be sure that inflation is on track to return to our 2% target before we cut them again," Bailey said. Thursday's decision represented the first pause in the BoE's already-gradual, once-every-three-months pace of rate cuts which started in August 2024. The BoE forecast that inflation would remain above its 2% target until the second quarter of 2027 - the same as in August - although it did forecast inflation would be slightly lower then, at 1.9%, and also flagged the weakness in the jobs market. In another sign of its worries about an economic slowdown, the central bank expressed concern that households might not use their high levels of savings to spend more. GUIDANCE CHANGE As part of a wider overhaul of how it explains its thinking, the MPC tweaked its key message about the outlook for rates. A line from previous statements that it thought "a gradual and careful approach" to cutting rates was appropriate was replaced by the phrase: "If progress on disinflation continues, Bank Rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path." The decision to keep rates on hold was not a surprise to investors. Pricing of interest rate futures on Wednesday had implied only a one-in-three chance of a quarter-point cut. Bailey said that current market pricing was close to "a fair description of my position at present". However the tight 5-4 vote split and the signs that Bailey might soon switch camps was likely to boost bets on a rate cut at the MPC's next meeting in mid-December. Investors on Wednesday were pricing a roughly 60% chance of a reduction in Bank Rate next month. By then, the MPC will have seen official inflation and jobs data for October and November and it will know the extent of tax increases which are widely expected in finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget. She is expected to announce broad tax increases in her budget on November 26, possibly weighing on the economy. For the first time the BoE published summaries of the views of individual MPC members as part of a revamp of its forecasting process and the way it explains its thinking after being widely criticised when British inflation topped 11% in October 2022. It forecast economic growth of 1.5% for this year, up from 1.25% in its previous forecast, and 1.2% for 2026, little changed from the August projections. Bailey and other MPC members are due to give a press conference at 1230 GMT. (([email protected] , opens new tab)) Keywords: BRITAIN BOE/ https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-england-keeps-rates-hold-knife-edge-vote-that-hints-cut-soon-2025-11-06/
2025-11-06 12:30
Monetary Policy Committee votes 5-4 to keep Bank Rate at 4% Inflation peaked at 3.8% but seen above target until mid 2027 Governor Bailey wants 'further evidence' before backing cut Investors see nearly 2 in 3 chance of rate cut on December 18 Economy forecast to grow modest 1.2% next year, unemployment up LONDON, Nov 6 (Reuters) - The Bank of England kept borrowing costs on hold on Thursday, but a narrow vote and signs that Governor Andrew Bailey might soon join those seeking a rate cut boosted the prospect of a move in December once the government's budget has been unveiled. Mindful of Britain's still-high headline inflation rate, the nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee voted 5-4 to keep the central bank's benchmark Bank Rate at 4%. Sign up here. Most economists polled by Reuters last week had predicted a 6-3 decision by the MPC to leave it unchanged. The MPC saw a bigger risk of weaker demand in the economy while the chance of inflation getting stuck too high had diminished, the central bank said. Bailey was among those who decided to keep borrowing costs unchanged but he was the only one of those five who felt that overall inflation risks had moved down. He said the inflation outlook was at "quite an important moment" but he felt there was "value in waiting for further evidence" over coming weeks. Deputy Governors Sarah Breeden and Dave Ramsden were in the bigger-than-expected minority of four seeking a rate cut. For Breeden, it was the first time she had voted against the majority since she joined the MPC two years ago. The pound shed around a third of a cent against the U.S. dollar before recovering and short-dated British government yields fell by a relatively modest three basis points after the announcement. The MPC's next rate decision is due to be announced on December 18. Investors were pricing a roughly 65% chance of a reduction in Bank Rate next month. By then the BoE will have seen two more sets of inflation and jobs data along with details of finance minister Rachel Reeves' budget on November 26 that is expected to include broad tax increases, which could weigh on the economy. "It is now a question of timing, and whether a quicker pace of policy easing will be needed. A December rate cut certainly seems more likely after today," said Ellie Henderson, an economist with bank Investec. Deutsche Bank's Chief UK Economist Sanjay Raja said he believed the BoE was on course to cut rates next month and then twice more to take Bank Rate to 3.25% by the summer. BOE SAYS UK INFLATION HAS PEAKED Britain's inflation of 3.8% remains the highest among the Group of Seven major advanced economies and the BoE's benchmark interest rate is double the European Central Bank's, adding to the challenge for the government to speed up the economy. However, inflation unexpectedly held steady in September and recent jobs data has also hinted at weakening price pressures. The MPC said it believed inflation had peaked and would fall in data for October and November as weaker economic growth and a worsening jobs market took their toll on demand. "We still think rates are on a gradual path downwards, but we need to be sure that inflation is on track to return to our 2% target before we cut them again," Bailey said. Thursday's decision represented the first pause in the BoE's already-gradual, once-every-three-months pace of rate cuts which started in August 2024. The BoE forecast that inflation will remain above its 2% target until the second quarter of 2027 - the same as in August - although it did forecast inflation would be slightly lower then, at 1.9%, and also flagged the weakness in the jobs market. In another sign of its worries about an economic slowdown, the central bank expressed concern that households might not use their high levels of savings to spend more and slightly raised its forecasts for unemployment over the next three years. GUIDANCE CHANGE As part of a wider overhaul of how it explains its thinking, the MPC tweaked its key message about the outlook for rates. A line from previous statements that it thought "a gradual and careful approach" to cutting rates was appropriate was replaced by the phrase: "If progress on disinflation continues, Bank Rate is likely to continue on a gradual downward path." The decision to keep rates on hold was not a surprise to investors. Pricing of interest rate futures on Wednesday had implied only a one-in-three chance of a quarter-point cut. Bailey said that current market pricing - which implies two or maybe three quarter-point rate cuts by the end of next year - was close to "a fair description of my position at present". For the first time the BoE published summaries of the views of individual MPC members as part of a revamp of its forecasting process and the way it explains its thinking after being widely criticised when British inflation topped 11% in October 2022. It forecast economic growth of 1.5% for this year, up from 1.2% in its previous forecast, and 1.2% for 2026, unchanged from the August projections. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-england-keeps-rates-hold-knife-edge-vote-that-hints-december-cut-2025-11-06/
