2025-11-04 05:31
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland On another day, tech-driven stock rallies to fresh record highs in Tokyo and Taipei would probably signal a bullish tone for regional equities, but not today. Sign up here. Just after those markets edged up to those unprecedented heights, traders turned sellers, looking to lock in profits in what remains a very uncertain environment. South Korean investors were sellers from the get-go, taking advantage of Monday's 2.8% surge in the KOSPI index (.KS11) , opens new tab to an all-time peak. Wall Street's S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab and Nasdaq (.IXIC) , opens new tab may have gained overnight, but futures point sharply lower, and pan-European STOXX 50 futures are also in the red. With most U.S. economic data releases suspended by the government shutdown, and Federal Reserve officials presenting diverging views on the correct path for monetary policy, investors have had to put a lot of weight on private surveys. And one from Monday did not inspire much confidence in the world's biggest economy: Accounts from manufacturers in the Institute for Supply Management survey painted a dire picture of the factory sector, which President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs are intended to stimulate. The JOLTS job openings data, closely watched by the Fed, that the market should have gotten later on Tuesday almost certainly won't be forthcoming. Instead, investors need to wait until Wednesday for the ADP payrolls report. For now, traders seem content with paring back bets on a December rate cut, lifting the dollar to multi-month highs on the yen and euro. Even the tech news that buoyed Wall Street on Monday reinforced ongoing concerns about how closed the loop is in terms of the companies fuelling all the artificial intelligence fervour. In this case, Amazon's (AMZN.O) , opens new tab $38 billion cloud services deal with ChatGPT-creator OpenAI. Trump is also muddying the waters with conflicting comments about Nvidia's (NVDA.O) , opens new tab most advanced chips, saying they won't be available outside the U.S. - and he didn't just limit that to China. South Korean politicians and business leaders must be scratching their heads after the U.S. president appeared to promise them access to said chips just last week. It's bad news for Nvidia too, with CEO Jensen Huang saying recently that access to the China market is essential to fund U.S.-based R&D. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday: -ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks in Sofia, Bulgaria -Bank of Spain Governor Jose Luis Escriva, Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden speak at Santander event in Madrid https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-11-04/
2025-11-04 04:43
MUMBAI, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee closed stronger on Tuesday, hoisted by likely market intervention by the Reserve Bank of India even as routine dollar bids from importers and foreign banks kept a lid on the currency's gains. The rupee closed at 88.6550 against the U.S. dollar, up 0.1% on the day, after being pinned close to its all-time low over recent trading sessions. Sign up here. The currency touched a peak of 88.42 in early trading before trimming gains. The RBI likely intervened to shore up the rupee before the local spot market opened and was possibly active intermittently though the day's session as well, traders said. Early in the session, broad based interbank offers in wake of the intervention also helped the rupee, but importers stepped in around the 88.50 mark, a trader at a Mumbai based bank said. A pickup in dollar strength has exerted strain on the rupee since last week, adding to the headwinds sparked by worries over the hit from steep U.S. trade tariffs and muted foreign portfolio flows. The currency has declined 3% over 2025 so far. On the day, the dollar index was perched near a three-month peak while most Asian currencies slipped. India's benchmark equity indexes, meanwhile, declined about 0.6% each. Foreign investors were net buyers of Indian equities worth $1.6 billion last month but the year-to-date tally stands at a net outflow of nearly $17 billion. "We continue to forecast INR underperforming core G10 and Asia FX, but the key change relative to last month is the RBI drawing a line in the sand for now at the 88.800-level for USD/INR," analysts at MUFG said in a note. The firm expects the rupee to recover modestly to 88.50 in the second quarter of 2026. India's financial markets will be shut on Wednesday for a local holiday. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-expected-remain-anchored-near-8880-rbis-hand-counters-dollar-strength-2025-11-04/
2025-11-04 04:03
Euro falls against dollar for fifth straight session Pound weakens on rare pre-budget speech by UK finance minister Yen gains; investors wary of intervention risks Aussie slips after RBA stands pat, warns on inflation Bitcoin slips to lowest in more than four months NEW YORK, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The dollar rose to a four-month high against the euro on Tuesday as divisions in the Federal Reserve raised doubt about the prospect of another rate cut this year, while a risk-off move sent investors seeking the U.S. currency for safety. Meanwhile, sterling fell after the UK finance minister pointed to "hard choices" in her upcoming budget. Sign up here. Overall market sentiment was noticeably darker, with stocks falling and government bonds drawing demand, while safe-haven currencies like the yen and the Swiss franc held firm. "I think it's just an old-fashioned haven bid," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, noting strength in both the dollar and the Japanese yen. The euro fell for the fifth straight session, down 0.3% to $1.1483, its weakest since August 1. Against the yen, the dollar was 0.4% lower at 153.60 yen, though the Japanese currency remained near a recent 8-1/2-month low. "Despite all the column inches that 'death of the dollar' takes up, it does remain the best haven out there in the minds of market participants," Brown said. With investor risk appetite taking a hit, the Australian dollar fell 0.8% at $0.649, after the Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate steady as expected at 3.60% and said it was cautious about further easing. Cryptocurrency bitcoin sank 7% to $99,679, dropping below the $100,000 level for the first time since June. DIVIDED FED Tuesday's dollar rise was an extension of the rally following last week's Fed meeting, where the central bank cut rates as expected but Chair Jerome Powell suggested another cut in December was not a given. Since then, Fed officials have offered competing views of where the economy stands and the risks facing it in the absence of economic data suspended due to the U.S. government shutdown. Traders now price a 65% chance of a rate cut in December, compared with 94% a week earlier, CME FedWatch showed. That shift in near-term expectations has boosted the dollar. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, topped 100 for the first time since early August and was last at 100.17. Still, some investors remain skeptical the dollar's recent strength marks a sustainable turnaround in the currency's longer-term outlook. "Just as US growth numbers have been upgraded in recent months so have the European ones, leaving relative growth expectations significantly narrower than the start of 2025," George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, said in a note. "This benign global growth environment is not consistent with a continued dollar rally," Saravelos said. POUND POUNDED Sterling fell 0.9% to $1.3015, after British finance minister Rachel Reeves set out the difficult economic backdrop she was wrestling with, pointing to high debt levels, low productivity and stubborn inflation. "Reeves' remarks that her budget choices will focus on reducing inflation to prepare for rate cuts are likely to enliven the debate about a (Bank of England) move before year-end and will focus attention on this week’s BoE meeting," Rabobank head of currency strategy Jane Foley said in a note. "We would expect the pound to remain on the back foot heading into the November 4 policy meeting given speculation of a dovish tilt." YEN BOUNCE The Bank of Japan's decision to leave interest rates unchanged last week has offered the yen some much-needed support. Still, the yen's recent weakness prompted Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama to reiterate the government's intention to continue to monitor currency movements with a high sense of urgency. The yen is approaching levels at which Japanese authorities intervened to support it in 2022 and 2024. U.S. President Donald Trump, who visited Japan last week, has frequently criticised governments that allow their currencies to weaken, arguing that it gives them an unfair trade advantage. This might mean Katayama will tread carefully, analysts said. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-3-month-high-traders-pare-near-term-rate-cut-wagers-2025-11-04/
2025-11-04 03:39
SYDNEY, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank on Tuesday left its cash rate steady as expected at 3.60%, saying it was cautious about easing further given higher core inflation, firmer consumer demand and a revival in the housing market. Wrapping up a two-day policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) said recent data suggested inflationary pressures could remain in the economy, but offered scant guidance on the prospect of further cuts. Sign up here. Markets had seen little chance of a rate cut this week following an uncomfortably hot reading on third-quarter inflation, and also see scant prospect of an easing in December. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australias-central-bank-holds-rates-360-signals-caution-2025-11-04/
2025-11-04 03:23
TOKYO, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Japan Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama reiterated on Tuesday the government would continue to monitor foreign exchange movements with a high sense of urgency as the yen hit fresh eight-month lows. "At the previous press conference (on Friday), I strongly expressed my views after observing the developments over those two days," Katayama said at a regular press conference. Sign up here. "My stance remains completely unchanged at this point. Since we are seeing one-sided and rapid movements, just as I said at that time, we continue to monitor the situation with a high level of urgency," she said. The yen touched 154.47 per dollar in early Asian trading on Tuesday, its lowest level since mid-February, stoking some market jitters about the potential for intervention. Katayama's wording was mostly unchanged from Friday, when she warned that the government had been monitoring, with a high sense of urgency, excessive fluctuations and disorderly movements on the currency market, including those driven by speculators. Those were her strongest comments on the currency since assuming her role last month. Her previous remarks had been limited to general principles, including that exchange rate movements should be stable and reflect economic fundamentals. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-continues-monitor-fx-with-high-urgency-finance-minister-says-2025-11-04/
2025-11-04 00:56
Death toll rises sharply as search efforts intensify Military helicopter on humanitarian mission crashes, six killed Kalmaegi causes evacuations, flooding, with cars and homes submerged Vietnam bracing for typhoon after recent deadly floods Philippines recovering from run of disasters, including Super Typhoon Ragasa CEBU, Philippines, Nov 4 (Reuters) - The death toll from Typhoon Kalmaegi in the Philippines hit 46 on Tuesday, officials said, including six crew of a military helicopter that crashed during the powerful storm that unleashed heavy rains and floods across the central region. The Huey helicopter went down in Agusan del Sur on the island of Mindanao, where it was conducting a humanitarian disaster response mission, the military said. Six bodies of the crew were recovered and an investigation was underway. Sign up here. The crash took place before noon about 270 km (168 miles) from the island of Cebu, the worst-hit region, where local authorities said 39 people had been killed by drowning or falling debris. One person was reported dead on the neighbouring island of Bohol. RUN OF DISASTERS IN PHILIPPINES The Philippines, which is hit by an average of 20 tropical storms each year, is recovering from a run of disasters including earthquakes and severe weather events in recent months. In September, Super Typhoon Ragasa swept across northern Luzon, forcing schools and government offices to shut down as it brought fierce winds and torrential rain. Although Kalmaegi, locally named Tino, has gradually lost strength since making landfall early on Tuesday, it continued to lash the country with winds of 120 kph and gusts of 165 kph as it swept across the Visayas islands headed for northern Palawan and towards the South China Sea. Tens of thousands were evacuated across the Visayas region, including parts of southern Luzon and northern Mindanao, ahead of a storm that submerged homes and caused widespread flooding. Cebu provincial information officer Ainjeliz Orong said the number of casualties in the province had jumped suddenly, from three reported earlier in the day, as rescue operations were underway and information had just started to come through. "Search and rescue efforts continue and there are missing and unaccounted individuals," Orong said by phone. Floods in Cebu City had subsided late on Tuesday but power was still out in many places and telecommunications services were intermittent, a Reuters journalist said. 'THE WATERS KEPT RISING' Verified videos circulating on social media showed cars and streets under water, with some vehicles carried away in the flow. After the flood receded in one area of Cebu City, cars shifted by fast-flowing water were left piled up on top of each other, some overturned. "We were really anxious because the longer the rains continued, the higher the floodwaters rose," said John Patajo, a housekeeper in the area. "When the waters rose, we went to our second floor. Yet, the waters kept rising so we decided to head up to our roof." The typhoon was expected to leave the Philippines late on Wednesday or early Thursday. Photos and videos from the Philippine Red Cross showed rescue workers wading through knee-deep floodwaters in Cebu City, using boats to reach stranded residents. In a town on the city's outskirts, homes were submerged, with only rooftops and top floors visible. More than 300 flights to and from the affected areas were cancelled on Tuesday, while boats at sea were advised to return. State weather agency PAGASA had earlier warned of a high risk of "life-threatening and damaging storm surges" that could reach more than 3 metres (9.84 ft) high on coastal and low-lying communities in the central Philippines. VIETNAM ON ALERT FOR KALMAEGI The Vietnamese government on Tuesday said that it was preparing for the worst-case scenario as it braced for the impact of Kalmaegi. The typhoon is forecast to make landfall on Thursday night in Vietnam's central regions, which have already suffered heavy floods that killed at least 40 people and left six others missing over the past week. "This is a very strong typhoon, which continues to strengthen," the government said. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/typhoon-kalmaegi-brings-life-threatening-conditions-central-philippines-2025-11-04/
