2025-11-03 11:40

Nov 3 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley on Monday raised its Brent crude forecast for the first half of 2026 to $60 a barrel from $57.5, citing the decision by OPEC+ to pause quota hikes in the first quarter of next year and recent U.S. and EU sanctions on Russian oil assets. The bank expects a "substantial surplus" in the oil market next year, peaking in the second quarter. However, it expects non-OPEC production growth will have slowed by then, and that OPEC production will also not grow significantly in 2026, due to diminished spare capacity, paving the way for the market to balance by the second half of 2027. Sign up here. OPEC+ on Sunday agreed to a small oil output increase for December and a pause in hikes during the first quarter of next year, as the group takes a cautious stance amid mounting concerns about a potential supply glut. It has raised output targets by about 2.9 million barrels per day (bpd), roughly 2.7% of global supply, since April. "The decision to halt quota hikes during 1Q does not materially change our production forecasts but still sends an important signal, i.e. the group is still adjusting supply in response to market conditions," Morgan Stanley said. The bank highlighted widening uncertainty in OPEC production data, noting that the spread between the lowest and highest estimates has regularly topped 2.5 million bpd this year. Although OPEC+ has announced production increases of 2.6 million bpd from March, the bank's best estimates suggest production has only increased by 0.5 million bpd. The United States this month hit Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil with sanctions, while the European Union adopted a separate package of Russia sanctions. Brent crude futures were trading around $64.61 a barrel on Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate stood at $60.80. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/morgan-stanley-lifts-h1-2026-brent-forecast-60-opec-pause-russia-sanctions-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 11:39

BERLIN, Nov 3 (Reuters) - German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has spoken to his Chinese counterpart on the phone about security, economic policy and other topics of mutual interest, a foreign ministry spokesperson said in Berlin on Monday. The ministers agreed that a trip by Wadephul to China that was recently cancelled should be rescheduled soon, the spokesperson said, adding that the Chinese side also reiterated its invitation to German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/german-foreign-minister-holds-call-with-chinese-counterpart-security-economic-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 11:34

Nov 3 - World markets kicked off November in an upbeat mood, riffing off buoyant company earnings and calmer trade relations while batting away OPEC's planned end to output hikes and this week's Supreme Court hearing on President Donald Trump's tariffs. Following last week's meeting between Trump and China's President Xi Jinping in South Korea, the White House announced Saturday that China would lift export controls on rare earths and end probes into U.S. chip firms. But Trump said AI giant Nvidia's most advanced chips would be reserved for U.S. companies and kept out of China and other countries. Sign up here. October manufacturing surveys are due to give some glimpse of nationwide activity later amid an official economic data outage that's accompanying the ongoing government shutdown, now heading for a record in excess of 35 days this week. Federal food aid lapsing this month is seen by some as one reason politicians may be forced to end the dispute soon. But however damaging the shutdown may prove to be in the final quarter, the third quarter was an impressive one for corporate America after a turbulent start to the year. According to LSEG data, Q3 annual profit growth for the S&P 500 is now estimated to be running at almost 14% - five percentage points faster than estimated a month ago and faster than was penciled in at the start of the year. With the likes of Palantir and Eastman Chemical in today's earnings diary, the picture appears to be brightening beyond the red-hot AI sector. Wall Street index futures are higher heading into Monday's open, with crude oil prices steady despite the weekend OPEC decision. Treasury yields edged lower from Friday's highs, while the dollar nudged up to three-month highs. Fed bank presidents on Friday aired their discomfort with the decision to ease policy, and traders are now pricing in just a 68% chance of another 25 bps cut in December. Pushing again for the Fed to ease more, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that parts of the economy, particularly housing, may already be in recession because of high rates. One event being watched closely this week is the start on Wednesday of Supreme Court arguments about the legality of a whole swathe of Trump's tariffs. While even a ruling against may just see the tariffs enacted under different legislation, it could create a hiatus in the process and involve rebates to firms that have paid. Overseas, the focus was on relatively downbeat factory surveys for last month - with the euro, yuan and yen all a touch weaker. However, most global bourses were higher on Monday. In today's column, I discuss whether Meta's mega $30 billion bond sale last week to help fund its AI spending spree is a sign of rising corporate leverage into the tech boom - and competition for Treasury in attracting investment capital. Today's Market Minute Chart of the day The U.S. Supreme Court considers the legality of Trump's global tariffs, with arguments set to be outlined on Wednesday. The court, whose 6-3 conservative majority has backed Trump in a series of major decisions this year, is hearing his administration's appeal after lower courts ruled the Republican president overstepped his authority in imposing sweeping tariffs under a federal law meant for emergencies. A ruling striking down Trump's use of the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, to quickly impose broad global tariffs also would eliminate a favorite tool to punish countries that draw his ire on non-trade political matters. Administration officials say the tariffs will remain under one legal authority or another if the court rules against these measures. Today's events to watch (All times EDT) * U.S. October manufacturing survey from S&P Global (0945) and ISM (1000) * Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly speak; Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks * U.S. corporate earnings: Palantir, Eastman Chemical, Clorox, IDEXX, Progressive, ON Semiconductor, Coterra, Diamondback, Williams, Loews, Vertex, Hologic, Pinnacle West, SBA, Public Service Enterprise, Simon Property, Realty Income Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 11:32

Nov 3 (Reuters) - The world's largest refiner by capacity, Sinopec Group , is in talks to buy the country's dominant jet fuel distributor, China National Aviation Fuel Group (CNAF) in a government-initiated move, Bloomberg News reported on Monday. Talks are ongoing, with no set timeline or certainty of a deal, but if completed, Sinopec would take over all of CNAF's assets and operations, the report said, citing people familiar with the discussions. Sign up here. Last week, China Aviation Oil (Singapore) (CNAO.SI) , opens new tab, CNAF's Singapore-based unit in charge of importing jet fuel to China, said that its parent company CNAF will be undergoing a corporate restructuring with another conglomerate. While China's demand for gasoline and diesel has been shrinking due to fleet electrification and the use of cheaper natural gas in trucks, aviation fuel demand has seen robust growth from passenger and cargo traffic. A Sinopec spokesperson declined to comment. CNAF did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment after business hours. Reuters could not immediately confirm the Bloomberg report. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/sinopec-talks-buy-chinas-leading-jet-fuel-distributor-bloomberg-news-reports-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 11:31

Shutdown impacts 12,000 US private lawyers for indigent defendants Courts' ability to provide representation amid funding shortfall in question Sole practitioners face financial strain, may stop taking cases Nov 3 (Reuters) - As the U.S. government shutdown disrupts paychecks for federal workers across the country, it is exacerbating the financial woes of lawyers who defend the poorest members of society when they are accused of federal crimes. Some of the private attorneys who work as court-appointed lawyers for indigent federal criminal defendants have stopped taking new cases and have argued that their clients are being denied their right to effective counsel, according to court records and defense lawyers. Sign up here. About 12,000 private lawyers across the U.S. serve on court-managed panels that provide counsel to defendants who cannot afford to hire an attorney. The program that compensates these lawyers under the Criminal Justice Act ran out of money in early July, and the shutdown - now in its 34th day - has resulted in Congress not authorizing any new funding. Lawyers who serve on these panels represent about 40% of criminal cases against people who cannot afford attorneys, according to the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts. The remaining 60% of indigent cases are handled by full-time federal public defenders who work for the court system. Since mid-October, they have been working without pay as well. Courts are still hearing cases during the shutdown. The funding gap for the defense lawyers is an example of how the shutdown – which on Tuesday will tie a record for the longest in U.S. history – is hindering wide swaths of federal services. It has also resulted in cuts to economic data collection, delays in air travel and, as of Saturday, an end to federal food aid to low-income Americans. If the shortfall in funding for court-appointed defense lawyers persists, some courts could struggle to provide representation to indigent criminal defendants as guaranteed by the U.S. Supreme Court in its landmark 1963 ruling Gideon v. Wainwright, defense lawyers say. The lack of government funding for lawyers, as well as for expert witnesses, interpreters and other service providers paid for using congressionally appropriated funds, has prompted a number of defendants to try to dismiss indictments against them, U.S. District Judge William Shubb in Sacramento, California, wrote in an October 20 ruling , opens new tab rejecting one such request. Defense attorney Danica Mazenko, whose client in the case was charged with illegally possessing ammunition, argued in a court filing that allowing the prosecution to proceed without compensation for legal counsel "would render Gideon a hollow promise." The judge declined to dismiss the charges, saying no court in the modern history of government shutdowns has held that delayed payment to court-appointed lawyers violated their clients' rights. A lawyer for a New Mexico man charged with unlawfully possessing 16,300 pills containing fentanyl intended for distribution raised a similar argument, saying the case should be dismissed not only because he was not being paid but also because he could no longer hire and pay a forensic chemist to serve as an expert witness necessary for the defense. Expert witnesses for indigent defendants are compensated from the same pool of funds used to pay their lawyers. U.S. District Judge Matthew Garcia declined , opens new tab to toss the case on October 16, calling that option an "extreme" remedy and saying he was "confident that the shutdown will eventually end and the necessary funds will become available." However, the judge delayed the trial from November to January, citing the defendant's inability to pay for the expert witness key to his case. "Criminal defendants and society are interested in ensuring that the former have effective assistance of counsel and access to a fair trial," Garcia wrote. Richelle Anderson, the man's lawyer, in an interview said it was difficult to understand how Congress could fail to provide enough funding for defense lawyers like herself. "You can't have a criminal trial if you don't have defense attorneys showing up," she said. "They want to arrest people and they want to prosecute people. The other side of that equation is funding attorneys for those people." SOLE PRACTITIONERS AND SMALL FIRMS About 85% of lawyers who serve on court-appointed panels for the indigent are sole practitioners or work for small firms, according to the administrative office. Court officials and defense attorneys say they are concerned that more of these lawyers could cease taking on cases if funding remains unstable. "When you're a sole practitioner, predictability of income is tremendously important to you and your livelihood," said Jason Tupman, the federal public defender for North Dakota and South Dakota. "If this is not going to be predictable, they're going to have to do something else, and they will." Private lawyers who sign up for the panels are paid far below prevailing market rates, earning $175 per hour for non-capital work and $223 per hour on death penalty cases after they submit vouchers. Brian Karth, the district court executive for the U.S. District Court for the Central District of California, said lawyers performing work on panels for the indigent "are expressing that they're near the end of their ability to provide services without pay." In his district, which covers Los Angeles, the pool of private attorneys available to take indigent cases has fallen from the usual 100 to fewer than 20, said Anthony Solis, a defense attorney who serves as that district's Criminal Justice Act panel representative and acts as a point of contact between panel members and other parts of the judicial branch. In California's Southern District, which covers San Diego, the court's panel of lawyers for poor defendants normally has around 100 attorneys, yet the number taking on new cases now is in the low 70s, said Adam Doyle, a lawyer who acts as the district's panel representative. Kelly Margolis Dagger, a Raleigh, North Carolina-based partner at the 45-lawyer firm Ellis & Winters who serves as the panel representative for court-appointed lawyers in the Eastern District of North Carolina, said she had heard from five to 10 lawyers in her district "who've expressed concerns about their ability to continue to take cases due to the funding crisis." "I personally am going to do my best to continue to accept the appointed cases, but I also cannot blame the many, many sole or small-firm practitioners on my panel who find themselves unable to do that," Dagger, speaking on her own behalf, said. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-government-shutdown-worsens-financial-woes-court-appointed-defense-lawyers-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 11:30

Nov 3 (Reuters) - India's Tata Consumer Products (TACN.NS) , opens new tab reported second-quarter earnings above expectations on Monday, helped by easing tea prices, a key commodity for the company. The company's consolidated net profit rose 11% on-year to 4.04 billion rupees ($45.96 million) in the three months ended September 30, above analysts' average estimate of 3.69 billion rupees, per data compiled by LSEG. Sign up here. Revenue, which rose 18% to 49.66 billion rupees, also beat analyst estimates of 47.36 billion rupees. Tea prices, which hit a peak in June due to adverse weather conditions and supply chain disruptions, waned year-on-year for the bulk of the reporting quarter, brokerage Motilal Oswal said. The company's tea portfolio accounts for a significant portion of its revenue, and the lower prices helped its branded India business to record a 47.5% rise in earnings before interest, taxes, amortization and depreciation (EBITDA). However, higher marketing expenses and a steep cost inflation in coffee prices - which led to lower profit in its international business - pressured its overall EBITDA margins, which declined 130 basis points to 13.6%. Tata Consumer has been attempting to grow its packaged foods segment - which includes items such as chilli oil and instant noodles - as a percentage of revenue to hedge its margins against commodity price fluctuations. Its 'growth' business, which counts such food items, saw a revenue growth of 27% year-on-year, faster than Tata's overall revenue growth of 18%. The company's shares rose 2.8% after the results. ($1 = 87.8950 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-tata-consumer-beats-quarterly-profit-view-tea-prices-stabilise-2025-11-03/