2025-11-03 06:20

Dollar rise to 3-month high vs euro US manufacturing contracts further in October Focus on private data releases as shutdown drags on Markets alert to more jawboning from Tokyo Rate decisions from BoE, RBA due this week NEW YORK, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The dollar rose to a three-month high against the euro on Monday, extending its gains from last week on doubts about the outlook for another Fed rate cut this year. The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points last week, as expected, but Chair Jerome Powell signalled that may be the last cut this year, citing the risk of making additional moves without a more robust picture of the economy. Sign up here. Were it not for the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, data releases scheduled for this week, including U.S. nonfarm payrolls, would have helped with that picture. With government releases missing, investors will be left with limited non-government sources of economic data, including ADP employment data, to gauge the health of the U.S. economy. 'QUITE A BIT OF DOUBT' ABOUT DECEMBER RATE CUT "There was quite a bit of doubt cast on the likelihood of a follow-up December rate cut," said Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank. Federal Reserve officials on Monday continued pressing competing views of where the economy stands and the risks facing it, a debate set to intensify ahead of the U.S. central bank's next policy meeting. In an appearance on the Bloomberg Surveillance television program, Fed Governor Stephen Miran restated the case for deep interest rate cuts that he has laid out since joining the central bank's Board of Governors in September. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, in contrast, told Yahoo Finance that he was leery of further rate cuts while inflation remains significantly above the central bank's 2% target and is expected to accelerate through the rest of 2025. "I don't recall, in all the years of watching these markets, public division among Fed policymakers as significant as this on the policy outlook," Osborne said. Traders are now pricing in a roughly 70% chance of a 25 bp cut in December, down from about 94%, a week ago. EURO HITS WEAKEST VS DOLLAR SINCE AUGUST The euro, which slipped as low as $1.1505 against the dollar, its weakest since August 1, pared losses to trade down 0.1% at $1.152225, after data showed U.S. manufacturing contracted for an eighth straight month in October as new orders remained subdued, and suppliers were taking longer to deliver materials to factories against the backdrop of tariffs on imported goods. "The small decline in the ISM Manufacturing Index in October is not a huge concern, as it was entirely driven by the volatile production component, while new orders and employment both inched higher," Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. The dollar was up 0.4% to 0.80755 Swiss francs, its highest since mid-August. Against the yen the dollar was 0.1% higher at 154.19 yen, languishing near an 8-1/2-month low, pressured by wide interest rate differentials. Still, there remained risks to the dollar, including the U.S. government shutdown that has disrupted the supply of official data crucial to gauging the strength of the economy. "I don't think it is guaranteed that the dollar continues to strengthen," Osborne said. POUND, YEN FACE THEIR OWN PRESSURES For now, the pound and the yen face their own pressures. Even though Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda last week sent the strongest signal yet that a rate hike was possible as soon as December, markets remained underwhelmed by the central bank's gradual approach, particularly given that the Fed has turned more hawkish. That has piled pressure on the yen, prompting jawboning from Japanese authorities to stem the currency's slide. The yen is approaching levels at which Japanese authorities intervened in markets in 2022 and 2024 to support the currency. Sterling has softened as market expectations of another Bank of England rate cut this year increased after softer-than-expected inflation data released last month. On Monday, the pound was 0.1% lower at $1.3133. The BoE meets this week, with some analysts predicting a 25 basis point cut, though market pricing only reflects a one-in-three chance of this occurring. The Aussie slipped 0.1% to $0.6538. The currency has found some support from expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will hold rates on Tuesday, following an uncomfortably high reading of core inflation. Cryptocurrency bitcoin was down 2.6% at $107,152. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-flirts-with-three-month-peak-investors-look-us-data-releases-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 05:47

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee With markets still in recovery mode after an action-packed week that has left risk momentum intact, the spotlight has shifted to the smattering of private economic data this week that may shed light on the health of the U.S. labour market. Sign up here. The U.S. shutdown, now the second-longest ever behind the 2018-2019 shutdown that lasted 35 days, is set to continue and that means there will be no government economic data. So, no nonfarm payrolls, no JOLTS job openings. Investors will instead parse through private employment data from ADP to gauge the direction of U.S. monetary policy. The ADP data is due later in the week. A divided Federal Reserve has left investors searching for clarity. Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets last week with a hawkish tone, suggesting the recent rate cut could be the last one for the year. But influential Fed Governor Christopher Waller made the case on Friday for more policy easing to shore up a weakening labour market. Traders are pricing in a 69% chance of a rate cut in December, down from 90% a week earlier, CME FedWatch tool showed. The afterglow of the widely expected trade truce between China and the U.S. has well and truly simmered down as Chinese stocks grind lower. It is a classic case of buy the rumour, sell the fact. On Monday, data showed China's factory activity in October expanded at a slower pace as new orders and output both waned amid tariff anxiety, while big manufacturing hubs across the region also struggled to fire up in October. Similar reports from Europe will be scrutinised by markets later in the session. European futures point to a higher open, while the euro was loitering at a three-month low. Powell's hawkish tone has helped lift the dollar although analysts don't expect the greenback to stay strong for long, suggesting data will soon show cracks in the world's largest economy. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: Economic events: Manufacturing data for October https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 05:25

US ADP employment data due on Wednesday China cuts gold tax exemption for some retailers Dollar holds near three-month peak Nov 3 (Reuters) - Gold prices held steady on Monday as the dollar hovered near a three-month high while traders awaited U.S. private payroll data for further cues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $4,008.34 an ounce by 1234 GMT. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.7% to $4,022.40. Sign up here. The dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab hovered near a three-month high, making gold more expensive for buyers with other currencies. "We are still in a consolidation mode. The lack of U.S. economic data makes it a bit more difficult, but weaker U.S. economic data should support further Fed rate cuts and allow gold to move to $4,200 per ounce by the end of the year," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Traders are now pricing in about a 70% chance of a Fed rate cut in December, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Non-yielding gold thrives when interest rates are low and in times of economic uncertainty. Investors have their eyes on ADP U.S. employment data and ISM PMIs this week, for indicators that could alter the Fed's hawkish stance. China ended a long-standing tax exemption policy for some gold retailers on Saturday, potentially setting back a buying spree for the precious metal in the world's biggest consumer market. UBS said it expects only a marginal impact on global gold prices from the new rule, citing strong investment and central bank buying. Gold is seeing resistance between $4,000 and $4,050, and prices could see further downside if that holds, analysts at Heraeus said in a note. "The price would need to climb above $4,155/oz to give an initial indication that a resumption of the rally had occurred," they added. U.S. President Donald Trump last week agreed to trim tariffs on China in exchange for concessions by Beijing on illicit fentanyl trade, U.S. soybean purchases and rare earths exports. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.2% to $48.75 an ounce, platinum climbed 1.4% to $1,590.61 and palladium gained 0.6% to $1,442.81. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-steadies-stronger-dollar-investors-trim-rate-cut-bets-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 04:50

MUMBAI, Nov 3(Reuters) - The Indian rupee spent much of Monday's trading session within striking distance of its all-time low, but managed to hold above the level on the back of likely dollar-selling market intervention by the central bank. The rupee closed at 88.7775 against the U.S. dollar, nearly unchanged on the day and a whisker away from its record low of 88.80 hit in late-September. Sign up here. The Reserve Bank of India was likely active through much of the session, according to traders, while persistent dollar bids from importers and foreign banks kept the local currency in a sub-5 paisa trading range. Over the past year since President Donald Trump's return to the White House, the rupee has declined over 5% as investors grapple with stark shifts in U.S. trade and immigration policies. More recently, a hawkish turn in the Federal Reserve's policy outlook and dollar demand, spurred by the maturity of positions in the non-deliverable forwards market, have become a sore spot for the local currency. "The USD appears to be bottoming out in the near term, with bearish positioning starting to normalise and scope emerging for a short squeeze," analysts at Standard Chartered said in a note. Their counterparts at Goldman Sachs hold a moderately positive bias on Asian currencies and are recommending a bullish position on the Indian rupee, using an exotic option structure, despite its latest slide towards its all-time low. Traders expect the RBI to continue intervening to support the rupee in the near-term. While a fall to 89-89.10 cannot be ruled out, recent price action indicates that the central bank certainly won't allow a quick decline of the rupee, a trader at a private bank said. Elsewhere, the dollar index was perched near a three-month high on Monday, while Asian currencies were flat-to-modestly weaker. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/dollar-strength-keeps-rupee-back-foot-rbi-counted-support-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 04:45

BEIJING, Nov 3 (Reuters) - China's Ministry of State Security on Monday warned that foreign intelligence agencies are stepping up efforts to "illegally obtain" genetic data and seed resources from the country's grain sector, calling the activity a threat to national food security. "In recent years, foreign intelligence agencies have intensified their infiltration into China's grain sector, illegally obtaining genetic data from crops such as soybeans, corn, and rice, posing a serious threat to the country's food security," the ministry said in a statement published on its official WeChat account. Sign up here. "Beijing has long considered its food security to be a national security issue – similar to the way in which energy security has long been framed through a national security lens in Washington," said Even Rogers Pay, a director at Beijing-based Trivium China. "Posts like these from MSS are aimed to create suspicion in the public and encourage them to view foreign interest in ag and food with a skeptical eye." The ministry cited a case in which a Chinese businessperson, surnamed Zhu, sold restricted "parental seeds" - first-generation seeds used in hybridization experiments that are not allowed to be exported - to a foreign entity under a "joint seed cooperation" scheme. The ministry said Zhu hid the seeds in containers that were declared for other exports. Zhu was sentenced to a year and a half in prison, while 17 others involved received administrative penalties. In another incident, foreign consular staff and experts from "a certain country" reportedly conducted unauthorized field surveys in a major agricultural province, collecting data on crop yields and reserves. They allegedly used counter-surveillance tactics, such as switching vehicles frequently and travelling on rural backroads to avoid detection. The ministry said it took action in both cases and urged the public to report any suspicious activity through official hotlines or online channels. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-warns-growing-foreign-espionage-seed-grain-sector-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 03:42

MUMBAI, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India likely intervened to help the rupee hold above its all-time low on Monday, four traders told Reuters, as the currency encountered pressure due to a broadly firmer dollar and persistent importer hedging. The rupee was last at 88.76 per U.S. dollar, nearly flat versus its closing level in the previous session and within touching distance of its all-time low of 88.80 hit in late-September. Sign up here. State-run banks were spotted offering dollars, most likely on behalf of the RBI, traders said. The dollar index was at 99.76, hovering near its highest level in three months, while Asian currencies were flat to modestly weaker on the day. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-central-bank-steps-help-rupee-avert-fall-past-record-low-traders-say-2025-11-03/