2025-11-03 04:45
BEIJING, Nov 3 (Reuters) - China's Ministry of State Security on Monday warned that foreign intelligence agencies are stepping up efforts to "illegally obtain" genetic data and seed resources from the country's grain sector, calling the activity a threat to national food security. "In recent years, foreign intelligence agencies have intensified their infiltration into China's grain sector, illegally obtaining genetic data from crops such as soybeans, corn, and rice, posing a serious threat to the country's food security," the ministry said in a statement published on its official WeChat account. Sign up here. "Beijing has long considered its food security to be a national security issue – similar to the way in which energy security has long been framed through a national security lens in Washington," said Even Rogers Pay, a director at Beijing-based Trivium China. "Posts like these from MSS are aimed to create suspicion in the public and encourage them to view foreign interest in ag and food with a skeptical eye." The ministry cited a case in which a Chinese businessperson, surnamed Zhu, sold restricted "parental seeds" - first-generation seeds used in hybridization experiments that are not allowed to be exported - to a foreign entity under a "joint seed cooperation" scheme. The ministry said Zhu hid the seeds in containers that were declared for other exports. Zhu was sentenced to a year and a half in prison, while 17 others involved received administrative penalties. In another incident, foreign consular staff and experts from "a certain country" reportedly conducted unauthorized field surveys in a major agricultural province, collecting data on crop yields and reserves. They allegedly used counter-surveillance tactics, such as switching vehicles frequently and travelling on rural backroads to avoid detection. The ministry said it took action in both cases and urged the public to report any suspicious activity through official hotlines or online channels. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-warns-growing-foreign-espionage-seed-grain-sector-2025-11-03/
2025-11-03 03:42
MUMBAI, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India likely intervened to help the rupee hold above its all-time low on Monday, four traders told Reuters, as the currency encountered pressure due to a broadly firmer dollar and persistent importer hedging. The rupee was last at 88.76 per U.S. dollar, nearly flat versus its closing level in the previous session and within touching distance of its all-time low of 88.80 hit in late-September. Sign up here. State-run banks were spotted offering dollars, most likely on behalf of the RBI, traders said. The dollar index was at 99.76, hovering near its highest level in three months, while Asian currencies were flat to modestly weaker on the day. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-central-bank-steps-help-rupee-avert-fall-past-record-low-traders-say-2025-11-03/
2025-11-03 01:36
MUMBAI, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee faces the risk of breaching its record low this week and may count on the central bank's interventions to prevent that while government bond traders are also looking for continued backing from the central bank to contain yields. The rupee closed at 88.7650 against the U.S. dollar on Friday, down 1% week-on-week and hovering close to its all-time low of 88.80 hit in late-September. Sign up here. Interventions by the Reserve Bank of India helped cushion the rupee's fall last week but traders say sentiment on the local currency is inclined towards further weakness. Merchant flows are skewed towards dollar demand and in the absence of the central bank's dollar-sales, the rupee could see a quick decline, a trader at a private bank said. "Market will test RBI's resolve to defend the rupee. It will be interesting to see if the RBI continues to defend 88.80 resolutely or chooses to leave some powder dry in case the rupee weakens further," forex advisory firm IFA Global said in a note. The focus will also be on the extent of portfolio flows two large initial public offers are able to attract. Indian eyewear retailer Lenskart's (LENS.NS) , opens new tab float will close for bids on Tuesday while stock broker Groww's $754 million IPO will open for bids on the same day. For global markets, the focus is likely to be on remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers to gauge the future direction of interest rates after the Fed delivered a hawkish jolt in its commentary last week, alongside an expected cut. The dollar index ended up by 0.8% last week. In the local market, India's 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 bond yield settled at 6.5317% on Friday, up xx basis points week-on-week over about the RBI's liquidity and interest rate trajectory. Traders expect the benchmark yield to stay in the 6.50% to 6.60% band this week, with few catalysts apart from any potential central bank action to support sentiment. With uncertainty regarding Fed rate cut rising, there has been a spillover effect on bets of rate easing from the RBI next month. A majority of market participants had been anticipating an India rate cut in December and the market is still pricing in around 20 bps of easing from the RBI over the next few months. Pricing for the December meeting has reduced to around 8-9 bps from 13-14 bps a few weeks ago, even as recent volatility in overnight rate fixing adds some uncertainty about pricing at the front-end of the yield curve, analysts at Nomura said in a note. Foreign inflows into Indian government bonds are on the rise, with net purchases worth $1 billion in October, marking a third straight month of inflows of more than 75 billion rupees ($853.29 million). KEY FACTORS: India ** October HSBC manufacturing PMI - November 3, Monday (10:30 a.m.) ** October HSBC services PMI - November 6, Thursday (10:30 a.m.) U.S. ** October S&P Global manufacturing PMI final - November 3, Monday (8:15 p.m. IST) ** October ISM manufacturing PMI - November 3, Monday (8:30 p.m. IST) ** October ISM non-manufacturing PMI - November 5, Wednesday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** October S&P Global composite PMI final - November 5, Wednesday (8:15 p.m. IST) ** October S&P Global services PMI final - November 5, Wednesday (8:15 p.m. IST) ** October non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate - November 7, Friday (6:00 p.m. IST) ($1 = 87.8950 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-rupee-prone-fall-past-record-low-rate-outlook-key-bond-yields-2025-11-03/
2025-11-03 00:27
BoE to release November rate decision at 1200 GMT on Thursday Most economists see rates at 4%, minority expect cut to 3.75% Markets see 1-in-3 chance of cut after weaker-than-expected CPI Job market softening but some policymakers fear sticky inflation BoE minutes to give more room for MPC personal views, scenarios LONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Bank of England looks likely to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, slowing its pace of cuts for the first time since it started to loosen policy last year, although some analysts do now expect a reduction after softer inflation and wage data. The BoE's most recent rate cut - by a quarter-point to 4% in August - only passed by a 5-4 margin after two rounds of voting by the Monetary Policy Committee. Sign up here. In September, Governor Andrew Bailey said the pace of rate cuts, which the BoE has delivered once every three months since August 2024, was "more uncertain". British consumer price inflation remains the highest among major advanced economies at 3.8% due largely to one-off factors including April's rise in employer social security charges. However, the fact that inflation did not rise to 4% in September as the BoE had been forecasting, alongside a further softening in wage growth and a rise in unemployment, has revived bets on a cut on Thursday. MARKETS SEE 1-IN-3 CHANCE OF THURSDAY CUT Financial markets on Friday priced in a 1-in-3 chance of a quarter-point cut on November 6, rising to two-in-three by the end of the year. Last week, U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs changed its view to predict a November rate cut. But overall, a narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters last week did not expect the BoE to move before 2026. The European Central Bank - which has inflation almost on target - held rates last week and appears to be at the end of its cutting cycle. A divided U.S. Federal Reserve, under pressure from President Donald Trump, cut rates by a quarter-point to a range of 3.75-4%. James Smith, an economist at Dutch bank ING, predicted another 5-4 split among the BoE's policymakers - but this time in favour of keeping rates on hold, and he viewed a December cut as being in the balance, depending partly on finance minister Rachel Reeves' November 26 budget. Softer data since September's meeting was unlikely to have resolved divisions on the MPC, he said. "Having turned more cautious over the summer, I don't think their thinking will have shifted as much as the market pricing has over the last month," he said. MPC DIVIDED OVER INFLATION PRESSURES Some BoE policymakers, such as Chief Economist Huw Pill and external MPC member Catherine Mann, fear inflation's rebound to close to 4%, less than three years after it was in double digits, might weaken businesses' and households' confidence that the BoE can reliably achieve its 2% inflation target. Others focus more on falling employment and a slowdown in wages as a sign that workers cannot push for higher wages. Bailey said last month the latest wage data was in line with his view that labour market pressures were easing. "It will not be a straightforward decision for the MPC," said Nomura economist George Buckley who expects a 5-4 vote to cut rates this week. Bailey and Deputy Governors Sarah Breeden and Dave Ramsden would join external MPC members Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor who have repeatedly voted for lower rates, Buckley predicted. MORE BERNANKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE IMPLEMENTED The BoE will this week take another step in overhauling how it explains its decision-making, following recommendations last year by former U.S. Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke. For the first time, individual MPC members will state their personal policy views and more space will be given to assessing the impact of economic scenarios that differ from the central view and different paths for interest rates. The MPC will also spend less time fine-tuning its inflation forecasts, which have previously been used to help steer market expectations. In August, the BoE predicted inflation would not return to its 2% target until the second quarter of 2027, and pencilled in modest annual economic growth of 1.25% for this year and next. https://www.reuters.com/business/bank-england-likely-slow-rate-cut-cycle-this-week-2025-11-03/
2025-11-03 00:24
LONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - A group of investors in mining called on Monday for the creation of an independent agency for the sector modelled after the International Energy Agency. The group of investors, which together manage or advise on $18 trillion of assets, said the new International Minerals Agency would be able to monitor global mineral supply and demand as well as illegal flows, a statement said. Sign up here. The agency would also provide data about which companies are progressing toward global performance standards on sustainability, it added. The group of investors - the Global Investor Commission on Mining 2030 - includes PIMCO, ING (INGA.AS) , opens new tab, L&G, Allianz Investment Management, Church of England Pension Fund and Royal London Asset Management. It released a report in Sao Paulo, aiming to provide a 10-year blueprint for a responsible mining sector, ahead of United Nations climate negotiations, having met with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil. "The Commission’s vision offers a roadmap for investors to unlock value by promoting sustainability and improving public perception," said Peter Kindt, global head transition accelerator at ING. "Achieving this will require multi-stakeholder collaboration and new initiatives like an International Minerals Agency." https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/investors-call-creation-international-minerals-agency-2025-11-03/
2025-11-03 00:11
Reuters Open Interest (ROI) is your essential source for global financial commentary. LAUNCESTON, Australia, Nov 3 (Reuters) - OPEC+ managed to both meet market expectations and deliver a surprise by agreeing to a small rise in crude oil output for December, but then pausing for the first quarter of next year. The eight members of the exporter group undertaking voluntary production cuts decided at their monthly meeting on Sunday to lift their output target by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) for December. Sign up here. This matched market expectations and continued the recent pattern of modest increases seen in October and November. The eight OPEC+ members, which include heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia, have now raised output targets by about 2.9 million bpd, about 2.7% of global supply, since April. However, the group said they would pause any increase in targets for the first three months of 2026, despite sticking to their oft-expressed view of a "steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals". The stated reason for suspending any further production hikes in the first quarter of next year was about as upbeat as bearish news can be presented. "Beyond December, due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February, and March 2026," OPEC+ said in a statement. It is correct that the first quarter tends to be softer from a demand perspective, but it's also likely that OPEC+ is putting a positive spin on what is an uncertain outlook for both global oil demand and supply. There is a high degree of divergence between the forecasts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency (IEA) for next year. OPEC's monthly report in October forecast 2026 oil demand growth at 1.38 million bpd and that demand and supply growth will be largely balanced. The IEA expects 2026 demand to rise by 700,000 bpd but a surge in supply will lead to a surplus of as much as 4 million bpd, the agency said in its October monthly report. Most oil market analysts sit somewhere between OPEC and the IEA, with a Reuters poll in September showing an expected surplus of 1.6 million bpd in 2026. UNCERTAINTIES OPEC+'s decision could be viewed as a sensible precaution to guard against any oversupply, and the inevitable slump in prices that would accompany a glut of oil. The decision is also a bit of insurance against current market uncertainties on both the supply and demand fronts. The recent U.S. sanctions against Russian crude producers and ongoing pressure on the major buyers of Russian oil, India and China, by U.S. President Donald Trump has led to questions as to whether the market will lose Russian barrels. The general expectation is that even if there is a pullback in purchases by India and China, it will only be for the short term and before long Russian supplies will once again be at full strength. The bullish supply narrative largely rests on Russia being able to export as much as it can, as well as ongoing output gains among non-OPEC producers. The bullish demand narrative rests largely with Asia, the top-importing region that takes about two-thirds of all global seaborne crude. Asia's demand is expected to have rebounded in October with LSEG Oil Research estimating imports of 28.59 million bpd, up 1.49 million bpd from September's 27.1 million bpd. But much of the gain is concentrated in China and India, the world's two biggest net oil importers. China's October imports are estimated at 12.21 million bpd, up from 11.5 million bpd in September, while India's are pegged at 5.05 million bpd, rising from September's 4.79 million bpd. What China and India have in common is that they tend to be price-sensitive buyers, importing more when prices are deemed to be reasonable and cutting back when prices rise. September's weak imports came after oil prices spiked in June amid the brief conflict between Israel and Iran, with cargoes arriving that month largely having been arranged during the period of high prices. The jump in October arrivals coincides with the drop in prices after the June spike as the risk premium eased and OPEC+ continued to lift output targets. The dilemma for OPEC+ is that for their bullish demand forecasts to be correct, prices are going to have to be low enough to tempt Asian buyers to lift imports, especially China, which is still building commercial and strategic inventories. But if OPEC+ is subtly shifting to once again limiting gains in output in order to stabilise prices, it runs the risk of buyers easing back on imports. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/opec-makes-subtle-shift-mitigate-potential-crude-oil-glut-2025-11-03/
