2025-12-08 12:22

Cobalt prices have surged since February Congo has threatened severe penalties for non-compliance Shipments stall as exporters struggle with procedure KINSHASA, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Congo’s mining lobby has called for urgent talks with the government to clarify new cobalt export rules, and said that legal ambiguities and compliance hurdles could delay shipments and disrupt global battery supply chains. The Democratic Republic of Congo, which supplies over 70% of global cobalt, launched the quota regime on October 16 after a months-long ban, allocating 18,125 metric tons for the fourth quarter and capping annual exports at 96,600 tons from 2026. Sign up here. China's CMOC (603993.SS) , opens new tab and Glencore (GLEN.L) , opens new tab, the world's two biggest cobalt-producing companies, received the largest shares, while regulator ARECOMS retained a 10% strategic reserve. The government threatened severe penalties for non-compliance but shipments have yet to move as exporters struggle with unclear procedures and payment requirements. Reuters reported last week that Congo added conditions under a government circular, requiring miners to prepay a 10% royalty within 48 hours and obtain a compliance certificate before shipments can move. EXPORTERS FACE 'SERIOUS DIFFICULTIES' In the letter to the mines minister dated December 5 and seen by Reuters, the Chamber of Mines said exporters face “serious difficulties” in applying quotas and have repeatedly sought, without success, a meeting with ARECOMS to clarify concerns over its role, the legality of mandatory prepayments, and new documentation requirements that have stalled shipments. The mines chamber confirmed the letter, declining further comment. “Any measure perceived as deviating from the mining code, notably prepayment of royalties, could undermine operator confidence and damage Congo’s international credibility,” the letter said, urging a high-level meeting with ARECOMS, state agencies and major producers. “It is urgent to guarantee legal security and preserve the sector’s attractiveness.” The mines ministry and ARECOMS did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The quota regime, aimed at lifting prices from multi-year lows, has already tightened supply to Chinese refiners and electric vehicle battery makers, pushing cobalt hydroxide prices up more than 80% since February when Congo imposed an initial ban on exports. Benchmark cobalt last traded around $24 a lb ($52,910 a ton), up from $16 in August and a nine-year low of $10 in February when the ban began. China, which controls about 70–75% of global cobalt refining capacity and supplies major companies, including automakers Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab and BYD (002594.SZ) , opens new tab and battery maker CATL (300750.SZ) , opens new tab, depends on Congo for feedstock, making any export delay a threat to EV and battery supply chains. China is unlikely to see cobalt shipments from Congo’s new export quota before April, a veteran Chinese analyst said, citing slow local government procedures and poor road infrastructure hampering transport. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/congo-miners-urge-urgent-talks-clear-cobalt-export-backlog-2025-12-08/

2025-12-08 12:09

Central bank body BIS flags gold market concerns Explosive co-movement with stocks not seen for at least 50 years Points to 'growing fragility' of risk-on environment LONDON, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The combination of gold and share prices soaring in unison is a phenomenon not seen in at least half a century and raises questions of a potential bubble in both, global central bank umbrella body, the Bank for International Settlements, says. While equity markets continue to be driven by AI and tech gains, gold's 60% surge this year is set to be its biggest since 1979, fuelling debate about whether its traditional role as a safe-haven asset has changed. Sign up here. "Gold has behaved very differently this year compared to its usual pattern," Hyun Song Shin, Economic Adviser and Head of the Monetary and Economic Department at the BIS said as it released its final report , opens new tab of the year on Monday. "The interesting phenomenon this time has been that gold has become much more like a speculative asset." Dubbed the central bank to the world's central banks, the BIS has given regular warnings about potential stock market bubbles in recent years, but its concern around the co-movement with gold is two-fold. Where would investors shelter if stocks and gold both crash. And what could it mean for central banks and other reserve managers given some have been heavy buyers of gold. The BIS' analysis concluded that this year has been the first time gold and the S&P 500 have jointly exhibited "explosive behaviour" in the last 50 years. Not only is gold up 60% this year, it is up more than 150% since 2022 when the post-COVID pandemic surge in inflation began to impact markets, alongside Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions on Moscow. Another possible bubble warning sign is that retail investors have also been piling in. Gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) prices have been consistently trading at a premium relative to their net asset value (NAV) this year, signalling "strong buying pressure coupled with impediments to arbitrage," the BIS said. Central banks' purchases have "clearly set a very firm tone in the price of gold," Shin added. "Whenever you have prices actually doing quite well, you will see other investors jumping in, and certainly retail investors have also taken part (in the rally), and not just in gold". GROWING FRAGILITY The BIS gave a broader warning too about the "growing fragility" of the risk-on environment amid the concerns about artificial intelligence (AI) valuations and the recent 20% dives in cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. The European Central Bank and Bank of England have both raised their own AI bubble concerns in recent weeks and the risk of an abrupt burst if investors' rosy expectations are not met. Shin said the profits being made by the AI firms - now spending enormous amounts on data centers - was an important difference between now and the "dotcom bubble" of the early 2000s when firms weren't making money. The "fundamental question", however, is whether those expenditures will be seen as being justified in the long run, Shin said, adding that the other key determinant for markets will be how the global economy holds up next year. "So far, activity has been surprisingly resilient," Shin said. The BIS is also watching where the dollar goes from here. This year it is headed for its biggest annual drop since the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2007. "After the April episode (when U.S. President Donald Trump announced sweeping trade tariff plans), the dollar has been relatively stable," Shin said. "I think the hedging behaviour of non-U.S. investors is going to be a very, very important input into how markets will co-move from here." https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-bis-pix-2025-12-08/

2025-12-08 12:05

LONDON, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The pound dipped on Monday, although volatility remained contained, as investors prepared for an action-packed week that, among other things, could bring a U.S. rate cut. Sterling climbed to six-week highs last week, helped by relief that finance minister Rachel Reeves’ budget was better received than feared and by expectations that the dollar will stay under pressure if the Federal Reserve signals further rate cuts beyond December’s widely anticipated move. Sign up here. The pound was last down 0.1% on the day against both the dollar and the euro, which traded at $1.3325 and 87.45 pence, respectively. UK economic growth figures for October are due on Friday. A Reuters poll of economists offers a forecast for a rise of 1.4% from the same month last year and a rise of 0.1% over the September reading, which was skewed by a cyberattack at Jaguar Land Rover that shut down production at the automaker, thereby hitting national growth. "Overall, some good news for the UK economy could be on the cards this week, although we continue to think that the underlying trend is for the economy to stall in the coming months," XTB research director Kathleen Brooks said. Money markets show traders are placing a roughly 87% chance of the Bank of England cutting rates by a quarter point to 3.75% when it meets on December 18. What happens after that is less clear. There is one more cut priced in the first half of 2026 and then the BoE is expected to be in hold mode, like most other major central banks. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-ticks-lower-traders-brace-busy-week-2025-12-08/

2025-12-08 11:56

Dec 8 (Reuters) - U.S. heavy rare earths magnet startup REalloys said on Monday it would partner with the Saskatchewan Research Council, the Canadian province's technology innovation unit, on an expansion of a heavy rare earths processing plant due to start operating in early 2027. REalloys will invest about $21 million in the facility to expand production of heavy rare earths, in return for a long-term offtake agreement of 80% of annual production, it said. Sign up here. The announcement comes as the U.S. government seeks to develop an alternative supply pipeline for the specialised materials, used in magnets for industries like wind power and defence, to diversify risk away from top producer China. Ohio-based REalloys, which was formed in 2023, plans to process rare earths in Saskatchewan into metal from either mined ore or recycled electronics. It signed an agreement earlier this year to source ore from a Greenland project that Critical Metals Corp (CRML.O) , opens new tab aims to develop. The Saskatchewan facility will initially produce up to 30 metric tons of dysprosium oxide, 15 tons of terbium oxide and 400 tons of neodymium and praseodymium metal (NdPr) annually, which will increase to 600 tons per year after the expansion is complete. REalloys, which is developing a mine in Saskatchewan to support the magnet rare earths supply chain, in September received a letter of interest from the U.S. Export-Import Bank for a loan worth up to $200 million to fund processing and magnet facilities. https://www.reuters.com/business/realloys-reaches-rare-earths-tie-up-with-canada-backed-council-2025-12-08/

2025-12-08 11:37

LONDON, Dec 8 (Reuters) - By Yoruk Bahceli, markets correspondent What matters in U.S. and global markets today Sign up here. The Federal Reserve meeting is fast approaching on Wednesday – and the stakes are high. Rising bets for a December cut seem to have saved equities from AI jitters for now. But the effect on the dollar, which dipped further on Monday, has been more pain. I’ll get into all the market news below. But first check out Mike Dolan’s latest column where he discusses what is at the heart of the problem facing the Federal Reserve this week and throughout 2026. And listen to thelatest episode of the new Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Mike and other Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week. Today's Market Minute The final Fed countdown No surprise: It's all about the Fed this week, with traders pretty confident -- and hopeful -- the bank will deliver a 25 basis-point rate cut on Wednesday. After all, bets that the Fed will cut rates have helped the S&P 500 bounce back from AI woes and jump 5% since late November, so equity traders need Jerome Powell and co to deliver. As for the dollar, the market verdict is more pain. The greenback was down a touch in early London trade on Monday, after two straight weeks of losses which has seen it drop more than 1% against peers, having hit its highest since late May before Fed bets gained traction. A pause rather than a cut would come as a shock to markets. So the real focus will be on how many policymakers, who are looking increasingly divided, dissent from the decision. The Fed's decision-making committee has not had three or more dissents at a meeting since 2019 and even before that it was a rarity, happening just nine times since 1990. This week is not all about the Fed though, with central banks in Canada, Switzerland and Australia also meeting, though they're all expected to hold rates. But the focus was also on the European Central Bank on Monday, where Isabel Schnabel, a leading policy hawk, said Frankfurt's next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut as some expect, though it won't happen in the near future. Markets are now pricing a small probability of an ECB hike next year -- one they had priced out previously. Traders already expect rate hikes in Japan, Australia and Canada, moves that could put further pressure on the dollar if they materialise. It was no surprise then that the U.S. dollar dropped more than 1% against its Canadian peer on Friday, when Canada's unemployment rate once again defied expectations and fell to a 16-month low. In bond markets, Germany's 30-year bond yield rose to its highest level since 2011, in the latest sign that long-end debt pressures are building back up. Japanese bond yields rose to fresh multi-year highs while U.S. 30-year Treasury yields touched their highest since September. In geopolitics, the focus remains on Ukraine peace talks, where progress has been slow, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy set to meet European leaders in London. Chart of the day Market bets that the Fed will cut rates in December, which gained traction after November 21, have sent the S&P 500 5% higher since then, while the U.S. dollar has dropped against a basket of peers. Today's events to watch * U.S. earnings: Toll Brothers, Phreesia, Oil-Dri Corporation of America, Ooma, Star Group LP, Compass Minerals International, Mama's Creations * U.S. bills, three-year note auctions Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-12-08/

2025-12-08 11:18

BRUSSELS, Dec 8 - The European Union plans to delay to December 16 legal proposals to expand its carbon border levy and potentially weaken a 2035 ban on new CO2-emitting cars, according to a draft European Commission agenda, seen by Reuters. The plans are being watched closely by carmakers and governments, including Germany and Italy, which have demanded the EU revise its 2035 autos CO2 emissions policy, which in its current form would effectively ban sales of new combustion engine cars. Sign up here. The proposals had initially been due for publication on Wednesday. Commission officials were still negotiating the timings on Monday, and the draft agenda could still change before it is published. Some EU officials suggested the autos proposals could be delayed further, into 2026. A Commission spokesperson declined to comment on the draft agenda seen by Reuters. Brussels is preparing proposals to expand its upcoming carbon border tariff to more downstream products such as washing machines, and attempt to prevent foreign companies from circumventing the world-first measure. The autos proposals are being prepared amid lobbying from European carmakers for greater flexibility on the 2035 car policy, including by allowing sales of plug-in hybrids, and combustion engine cars that run on so-called CO2-neutral fuels, to continue beyond this deadline. Europe's auto industry says it needs this flexibility to cope with slower than expected electric vehicle sales, and fierce competition from China. But weakening the policy could hamper the EU's climate targets, since it would mean more CO2-emitting cars remain on Europe's roads by 2050, when the EU has committed to reach net zero emissions across its economy. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-delay-proposals-carbon-border-tariff-auto-industry-draft-document-shows-2025-12-08/