2025-10-27 05:42

BANGKOK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Thailand's exports beat forecasts with the fastest growth rate in more than three years in September after a surge in U.S. shipments, prompting the commerce ministry to raise its export forecast for the whole of 2025. Exports THCEX=ECI , opens new tab, a key driver of the Thai economy, rose 19.0% in September from a year earlier, the fastest rate of growth in 42 months, the commerce ministry said on Monday, beating analysts' expectations of a rise of 7.0% and following an annual rise of 5.8% in August. Sign up here. Exports were boosted by clarity on U.S. tariffs, as well as signs of a relaxation in U.S. trade measures compared with earlier periods, which helped improve the global trade environment, the ministry said in a statement. "U.S. tariffs on Thailand have had a relatively limited direct impact, and our entrepreneurs are somewhat prepared," Nantapong Chiralerspong, head of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, told a press conference. "Compared to other ASEAN countries, our 19% tariff rate remains competitive," he said. In September, exports to the United States, Thailand's largest market, jumped 35.3% from a year earlier, the ministry said. The United States set a 19% tariff on imported goods from Thailand, lower than the 36% rate announced earlier and in line with other countries in the region. Thailand and the United States on Sunday reached a framework agreement on trade, in which Thailand would eliminate tariff barriers on approximately 99% of U.S. goods. In the first nine months of 2025, exports rose 13.9% from a year earlier. The commerce ministry now expects exports to rise between 9.4% and 10.4% this year, much higher than its original target of 2% to 3%. Exports are expected to continue rising in the remaining three months of the year, but at a slower pace, Nantapong said. In September, imports (THCIM=ECI) , opens new tab increased 17.2% from a year earlier, higher than a forecast rise of 10.6%. That led to a trade surplus (THCTR=ECI) , opens new tab of $1.28 billion in September, much higher than the expected $0.1 billion surplus. Rice export volumes fell by 15.6% annually in September and by 23.1% in the January-September period to 5.8 million metric tons. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thai-september-exports-rise-190-yy-much-stronger-than-expected-2025-10-27/

2025-10-27 05:26

Focus on Trump-Xi and central bank meetings, US megacap earnings US-China trade deal framework boosts global stocks US stock indexes register record closing highs Fed expected to cut rates by 25 basis points NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Global stocks rallied on Monday to a fresh intraday record while the dollar eased on optimism that a potential trade deal was on the horizon between China and the U.S., as investors awaited a slew of central bank policy announcements and earnings from several megacap companies. Top Chinese and U.S. economic officials on Sunday hammered out the framework of a trade deal for U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping to decide on at a meeting in South Korea scheduled for Thursday. Sign up here. Trump said he thought a deal would be reached with China and announced a flurry of deals on trade and critical minerals in Malaysia with four Southeast Asian nations during the first stop of a five-day Asia trip. A trade deal would halt heavier U.S. tariffs and Chinese rare earths export controls, helping allay some recent worries among investors about relations between the world's two largest economies. On Wall Street, U.S. stocks showed strong gains, led in part by gains in technology stocks, including a surge of more than 11% in Qualcomm (QCOM.O) , opens new tab shares after it unveiled two artificial intelligence chips for data centers, with commercial availability from next year. "On Friday and over the weekend we heard there's going to be positive things coming out of the Trump and Xi meeting. The market's still up on that," said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute in St. Louis, Missouri. "I don't think the market expects some complete deal out of this, but I think they expect some grain sales, some assurance that these rare earth elements are going to continue to be exported by China - just an easing of tensions to some extent." Earnings are expected this week from "Magnificent Seven" heavyweights Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab, Alphabet (GOOGL.O) , opens new tab, Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab, Amazon (AMZN.O) , opens new tab and Meta Platforms (META.O) , opens new tab, and investors will closely eye the results to see if they justify heightened valuations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 337.47 points, or 0.71%, to 47,544.59, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 83.47 points, or 1.23%, to 6,875.16 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab rose 432.59 points, or 1.86%, to 23,637.46 as each of the three main indexes registered record closing levels. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab climbed 11.35 points, or 1.13%, to 1,012.72 after hitting an intraday record of 1,012.90 and was on pace for its third straight session of gains, while the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab closed up 0.22% at a fresh record. Argentina's Merval index (.MERV) , opens new tab shot up 454,827.09 points, or 21.9%, to 2,531,685.67 while its bonds and currency also surged after President Javier Milei's party won an overwhelming victory in a Sunday midterm election, a key requisite to keep economic reforms on track and a U.S. financial backstop in place. The U.S. dollar weakened against the euro, Chinese yuan and Australian dollar on Monday as optimism over a possible U.S.-China trade deal boosted risk appetite and reduced demand for the greenback. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, shed 0.1% to 98.83, with the euro up 0.16% at $1.1644. The Chinese yuan rose 0.26% against the greenback to 7.108 per dollar. The yuan was also boosted by the People's Bank of China setting the official yuan midpoint rate higher than expected. Prior to the market open, it set the official yuan midpoint rate at 7.0881 per dollar, the strongest since October 15, 2024, and above a Reuters estimate of 7.1146. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar ticked up 0.02% to 152.88 while sterling was up 0.16% to $1.333 against the greenback. Investors will also grapple with major central bank meetings this week including those of Japan, Canada, Europe and the United States. The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to cut interest rates by 25 basis points after data showed U.S. consumer prices increased slightly less than expected in September, but the government shutdown and its impact on data remain a concern. Market expectations for a rate cut of 25 basis points stand at 97.8%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. , opens new tab The European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are both broadly expected to hold rates steady later this week. The BOJ is likely to debate whether conditions are right to resume rate hikes as worries about a tariff-induced recession ease, but political complications may keep it on hold for now. Japan's new finance minister, Satsuki Katayama, said her meeting with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not directly touch upon the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. In Treasuries, the yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes slipped 0.8 basis point to 3.989%, from 3.997% late on Friday. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-10-27/

2025-10-27 05:19

MUMBAI, Oct 27(Reuters) - The Indian rupee logged its worst day in a month on Monday as a drop below the 88 per U.S. dollar mark spurred a flight out of long wagers on the currency, while persistent dollar demand from importers also weighed. The rupee closed at 88.2450 against the U.S. dollar, down 0.4% on the day, marking its steepest one-day fall since September 23. Sign up here. Frequent interventions by the Reserve Bank of India had helped the rupee hold above the 88 mark last week, but traders also pointed to an easing of that defence on Monday. While state-run banks were spotted offering dollars on the day, the activity was not clustered around any specific level, a trader at a foreign bank said. There was "lots of short covering (on USD/INR) after it rose past 88," which prompted the sharp move, the trader added. Another trader at a state-run bank, meanwhile, pointed to dollar demand from importers, including local oil companies. Despite the day's fall, the rupee has outperformed most of its regional peers in October after heavy intervention by the central bank earlier in the month helped shore it up from the brink of its all-time low. Analysts at BofA Global Research hold a neutral view on the rupee. Trade uncertainty, including around services, weighs on exports and flows, despite the appealing valuation and weaker USD trend in the final quarter of 2025, they said in a note. The rupee's 40-currency real effective exchange rate (REER), a gauge of its competitiveness, fell to 97.65 in September, the lowest in 7 years. A REER below 100 points to undervaluation. Elsewhere, the dollar index was steady at 98.8 while the offshore Chinese yuan rose to a one-month peak on signs of progress in trade talks between the U.S. and China. Meanwhile as far as India-U.S. talks go, a senior Indian government official said last week a bilateral trade deal with Washington was "very near." https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-may-extend-rbi-spurred-rally-fresh-boost-softer-us-inflation-2025-10-27/

2025-10-27 05:10

U.S. and China set to come away with a trade deal, Trump says Risk appetite rises on easing trade tensions, analyst says Focus on U.S. Fed policy statement on Wednesday Oct 27 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell 2% on Monday, as hopes of easing U.S.-China trade tensions lifted risk appetite for equities, while investors awaited major central bank meetings this week for rate cut cues. Spot gold was down 2% at $4,029.69 per ounce as of 1122 GMT. Prices hit a record high of $4,381.21 on October 20, buoyed by rising bets for U.S. rate cuts, and geopolitical and economic uncertainties, but have since fallen more than 5%. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures for December delivery lost 2.3% to $4,042.80. Asian stocks surged as signs of a detente in China-U.S. trade tensions buoyed risk appetite in a strong start to a week that will be headlined by central bank meetings and megacap earnings. "A possible trade deal between the U.S. and China is supporting risky assets and weighing on gold, but we should also remember that potentially lower tariffs will allow the Federal Reserve to cut rates further," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. The U.S. and China are set to "come away with" a trade deal, U.S. President Donald Trump said, a day after top officials of the two countries hashed out a framework for Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping to decide on during their upcoming meeting in South Korea. Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to cut rates by a quarter percentage point on Wednesday, a view supported by softer-than-expected September inflation. With a 25-basis-point cut already priced in, markets are looking ahead to any forward-looking remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the meeting. "Lower real interest rates should still support demand for gold. The market consensus is looking for the Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points, so I don't expect much movement around the FOMC meeting," Staunovo added. Non-yielding gold tends to benefit in a low-interest-rate environment. Elsewhere, spot silver fell 2.3% to $47.48 per ounce, platinum eased 0.8% to $1,593.43 and palladium lost 0.8% to $1,417.58. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/gold-dips-stronger-dollar-us-china-trade-deal-hopes-2025-10-27/

2025-10-27 05:01

ECB to stay on hold again on Thursday Inflation, growth risks still uncertain as tariff impact awaited Markets unsure whether the ECB will cut next year LONDON/MILAN, Oct 27 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank will likely keep rates on hold again on Thursday as traders waver on whether it will resume easing next year. Renewed U.S.-China trade tensionsprompted caution in markets earlier in October but strong data and signs of progress towards a deal mean traders have trimmed rate cut bets again. Sign up here. Here are five key questions for markets: 1/ What will the ECB do this week? Hold rates at 2% for the third meeting running. Not much has changed since September, when policymakers said the economy was in a "good place". They are yet to see the full impact of U.S. tariffs and the euro, whose 12% rise this year risks driving inflation down, has dropped. "This is just an interim meeting. The more significant one will be in mid-December," said UBS chief European economist Reinhard Cluse. 2/ Inflation is back above target. Is the ECB worried? No. Euro zone inflation rose to 2.2% in September, above target for the first time since April, as services prices rose and energy cost declines slowed. That was in line with expectations. The ECB sees inflation dropping to 1.7% next year and staying below target through mid-2027. Policymakers broadly see inflation risks as balanced, but more seem worried about the risk of weaker rather than stronger inflation, ECB September meeting minutes suggested. "Near-term inflation risks are to the downside, due to the stronger euro and the disinflationary impulse from Chinese exports," said Paul Hollingsworth, head of developed market economics at BNP Paribas, referring to risks of China dumping surplus exports into Europe. Upside risks on the back of German stimulus are more medium term, he added. 3/ Why are traders moving back and forth on 2026 rate cut bets? Markets were initially concerned about escalating trade risks after U.S. President Donald Trumpunveiled additional levies on Chinese imports earlier in October. So, traders priced in around an 80% chance of a 2026 rate cut, a big shift from September, when a hawkish-sounding ECB had led markets to price out such a move. But data last week suggesting the euro zone economy is gaining momentum and Trump saying he hoped to close a trade deal with China this week have led traders to dial back bets again. They now see just under a 50% chance of a cut by end-2026. 4/ Economic uncertainty remains high. What does that mean for ECB policy? It underscores why policymakers have not closed the door on further cuts. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says downside risks would strengthen the case for "slightly lower" rates and upside factors for staying on hold. Euro zone banks may come under pressure if dollar funding dries up, he has also warned. The impact of U.S. tariffs and the potential for trade tensions to escalate remain the main downside risks, economists said. Further euro strength and German stimulus kicking in slower than expected could also prompt another cut, UBS's Cluse said. The ECB also says AI-driven market valuations raise the risks of an abrupt repricing in global markets that could hurt the euro zone. France's budget uncertainty is unlikely to sway the ECB's thinking, but the Socialists on Friday renewed the risk of a government collapse. 5/ Where does the ECB stand in the debate around using frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine? It has no official say, but the ECB does not want the euro's credibility to be damaged at a time when there is an opportunity to boost the currency's global clout. Many EU governments want to invest Russian cash stuck at Belgium's Euroclear repository from matured Russian bond holdings into zero-coupon bonds issued by the bloc, then use the proceeds to lend to Ukraine. Russia would retain its claim over the assets, avoiding an outright confiscation - the most euro-negative scenario. Russia has said it would deliver a "painful response" to any such move. ECB chief Christine Lagarde says the EU must follow international law in the process and would prefer all countries holding Russian assets and cash to similarly lend to Ukraine. But the idea was put on hold on Thursday, to be revisited in December. Ultimately, factors such as defence capabilities and the limited depth of euro zone capital markets play a more decisive role in the euro's reserve currency position, said Morgan Stanley's chief Europe economist Jens Eisenschmidt. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/still-good-place-five-questions-ecb-2025-10-27/

2025-10-27 04:47

SINGAPORE, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Targets for sustainable biofuels use and social aspects of the energy transition will be in focus at this year's United Nations climate summit, COP30, said Francesco La Camera, Director-General at the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). COP30 will be held on November 10-21 in Belem, Brazil, where countries are due to present updated national climate commitments and assess progress on renewable energy targets agreed at previous summits. Sign up here. La Camera said he anticipates a biofuel pledge that could become a target in the final declaration, potentially calling for quadrupled production by 2035 or setting a share target for sustainable aviation fuel in the energy mix. "I think there will be more focus on the social aspect of the transition and also on the sustainable use of biomass," La Camera said on the sidelines of the Singapore International Energy Week event. IRENA has prepared a biofuel report for the conference and launched an agreement with the International Civil Aviation Organization to promote biofuel manufacturing, he said. La Camera said the conference will address how communities can participate in renewable energy projects. IRENA now expects a smaller shortfall in renewable energy installations by 2030 due to the accelerating pace of new additions, La Camera said. Global renewable capacity is now projected to fall 0.9 terawatts short of the COP28 target of 11.2 terawatt for 2030, an improvement from the 1.49 terawatt shortfall projected last year, he said. More than 100 countries at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai in 2023 agreed to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 as part of efforts to meet global climate targets. Meeting the target by 2030 will require annual growth of 16.6% from 2025-2030, IRENA said in a report this month. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/irena-chief-expects-sustainable-biofuels-feature-key-cop30-theme-2025-10-27/