2025-10-24 10:33
LONDON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Everything Mike Dolan and the ROI team are excited to read, watch and listen to over the weekend. From the Editor Sign up here. Hello Morning Bid readers! Expectations of a thaw in U.S.-China relations gave Asian equities a boost on Friday, after the White House said on Thursday that President Donald Trump would meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week during the U.S. leader's Asia trip. Negotiations with another large U.S. trading partner, Canada, took a somewhat strange turn on Thursday, with Trump writing on Truth Social that trade talks between the North American nations were “TERMINATED,” because of what he deemed to be a “fraudulent” ad showing former President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs. In other trade news this week, the U.S. and Australia signed a deal on Monday that will see up to $8.5 billion invested in projects to develop and refine metals vital to industries including defence, advanced manufacturing and the energy transition. ROI Asia Commodities Columnist Clyde Russell argues that this deal is far from a game-changer, but it is a decent first step as the U.S. and its allies seek to reduce their reliance on China. On the domestic front, investors, starved of data during the government shutdown, will finally get some official economic information today: CPI inflation for September. The consensus expectation is that it will remain steady at 3.1% year-over-year. But, as ROI editor-at-large Mike Dolan writes, markets are likely to meet the announcement with a shrug, as almost no one seems to care about inflation anymore. What matters instead is the job market, or at least that’s the steer Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell gave investors at the September FOMC meeting. ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever argues that the drop in Treasury yields this month – the 10-Year yield fell below 4% earlier this week – shows that investors are hearing Powell loud and clear. Third quarter earnings season continued, with strong reports from Intel and many other firms, alongside disappointing results from Netflix and Tesla. Jamie McGeever suggests that maybe, just maybe, we could be seeing signs that the equity rally is about to broaden. Over in energy markets, geopolitics were once again center stage this week, as President Trump slapped sanctions on two Russian oil giants, Rosneft and Lukoil on Wednesday, in an effort to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to a ceasefire deal in Ukraine. ROI Energy Columnist Ron Bousso argues that the effectiveness of these measures will hinge on Trump's willingness to enforce secondary sanctions and risk an energy price spike. The announcement sent Brent crude prices up over 5% on Thursday, but this jump may be short-lived, as the global oil market is widely believed to be oversupplied. Ron Bousso notes that any selloff should be limited, however, by the uncertainty surrounding OPEC+ production. Staying on fossil fuels, ROI Energy Transition Columnist Gavin Maguire pointed out that natural gas consumption by U.S. LNG firms looks set to overtake gas use by U.S. households for the first time in 2025, stoking tensions between the export-oriented LNG sector and domestic gas consumers. Over in metals, ROI Columnist Andy Home gives his key takeaways from the recent London Metal Exchange week. Spoiler alert, everyone loves Doctor Copper. And, finally, the most famous metal of all, gold, took a tumble on Tuesday, with prices dipping the most in five years. Of course, gold fell from a record-high above $4,300 and is still up more than 50% this year, so no one needs to pity the poor gold trader. As we head into the weekend, check out the ROI team’s recommendations for what you should read, listen to, and watch to stay informed and ready for the week ahead. This weekend, we're reading... CLYDE RUSSELL, ROI Asia Commodities and Energy Columnist: My suggestion this week is an OECD report on Australia's green iron potential. It outlines the scale of the opportunity but also the massive challenge in funding and coordinating such a massive shift for the world's biggest iron ore producer. , opens new tab MIKE DOLAN, ROI Financial Markets Editor-at-Large: This thought-provoking column by Jacob Funk Kirkegaard of the Peterson Institute considers whether a fiscal crisis in France, the EU's only nuclear power, might result in transferring France's nuclear deterrent costs to the EU level. , opens new tab RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: This fascinating Reuters investigation shows that dark fleet tankers are no longer just for dodgy Iranian and Russian oil trading. The vessels are also being used by Mexican drug cartels in a flourishing market of illegal oil trading and tax evasion. ANDY HOME, ROI Metals Columnist: My most interesting read of the week is about the underground marathon that will take place in Boliden's Garpenberg zinc mine in Sweden. Participants will endure temperatures of up to 30°C as well as total silence and will be running in complete darkness with only their head torches for light. , opens new tab We're listening to... GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: This is a fascinating podcast about what’s possible with EV battery recycling. In short, the plan is "to turn a massive wave of incoming used batteries into a key resource for the grid." , opens new tab And we're watching... ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: Yes, I did recommend the Reuters World News vodcast last week, but I'm doing it again just to make sure you don't miss the new video version of Reuters flagship podcast. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-10-24/
2025-10-24 10:21
Sterling set for weekly loss against dollar and euro Upbeat UK retail sales and consumer confidence data BoE rate cut expectations influenced by inflation data LONDON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - The British pound was steady on Friday but still headed for a weekly loss against the dollar and the euro as softer-than-forecast inflation data offset Friday's upbeat retail sales, consumer confidence and business activity figures. While another rate cut from the Bank of England in 2025 is not a foregone conclusion, the week's data has left the door ajar for the central bank to lower borrowing costs again by the end of the year. Sign up here. Sterling was little changed against the dollar on Friday at $1.3319, but was set for a weekly drop of 0.9%. Against the euro, the pound was little changed at 87.17 pence , but was set to have its first weekly fall against the single currency in four weeks. UPBEAT DATA Data on Friday painted a slightly rosier picture of the economy heading towards the end of the year. British retail sales unexpectedly rose in September, boosted by technology sales and demand for gold from online jewellers, official figures showed; meanwhile British consumer sentiment rose in October to its joint-highest level since August 2024. Separately, business activity showed tentative signs of a recovery, the preliminary UK Composite Purchasing Managers' Index published by S&P Global showed on Friday. "We tend to be of the view that consumer confidence and retail sales, both of which were stronger today, are secondary or even tertiary indicators, to some extent," said Dominic Bunning, head of G10 FX strategy at Nomura. "We're still looking for some underperformance (in the pound), in general," Bunning added, citing the recent weak labour market report and inflation figures. TO CUT OR NOT TO CUT? Investor expectations for BoE rate cuts have swung around this week, although markets still see a greater chance of a cut this year than the central bank keeping rates unchanged. Markets had earlier this week raised their bets on further BoE easing in 2025 after British inflation unexpectedly held steady, coming in below expectations from a Reuters poll of economists and the central bank itself. Futures markets now imply about a 65% chance of a quarter-point rate cut from the BoE by the end of the year, although that is down slightly from around a 75% chance before Friday's data. "Markets have rightly priced in a greater degree of easing from the central bank after softer-than-expected inflation and rumours of a more disinflationary Budget than previously expected," said Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. "But the growth picture still suggests that the neutral rate is high and that rates are only modestly restrictive." https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-steady-after-upbeat-data-still-set-weekly-loss-2025-10-24/
2025-10-24 09:06
Oct 27 (Reuters) - Trade talks between Washington, Beijing and Canada will dominate a week headlined by central bank decisions in the United States, Canada and Europe, while Argentina's markets digest a decisive midterm election win for President Javier Milei. Here's all you need to know about the week ahead in world markets by Dhara Ranasinghe in London, Rodrigo Campos, Alden Bentley and Lewis Krauskopf in New York, and Kevin Buckland in Tokyo. Sign up here. 1/ A MID-TERM DRAMA Argentina's bonds and stocks are expected to rally on Monday after President Javier Milei's party won an overwhelming victory in Sunday's crucial midterm election, a key requisite to keep economic reforms on track and a U.S. financial backstop in place. Right-wing President Javier Milei now looks set to strengthen his minority position after his inflation-crushing economic reform programme and deepening ties with Washington have delivered some of the best returns for emerging market investors since he took over in December 2023. Yet U.S. President Donald Trump's unprecedented backing, including direct intervention in FX markets, a $20 billion central bank swap line and the prospect of another $20 billion loan to shore up government bonds haven't stopped the peso's slide to record lows. The peso has weakened some 25% since mid-April's partial scrapping of foreign exchange controls, and close to 30% since the start of the year. 2/IT'S AI, STUPID Megacap tech and growth company earnings reports headline a massive week of U.S. corporate results that could shed light on the state of the effervescent "AI trade". Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab, Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab, Alphabet (GOOGL.O) , opens new tab, Amazon (AMZN.O) , opens new tab and Meta Platforms (META.O) , opens new tab - five of the "Magnificent Seven" megacap companies that dominate equity indexes - all report earnings. One-third of S&P 500 constituents are set to report this week alone, including drugmaker Eli Lilly (LLY.N) , opens new tab, oil majors Exxon (XOM.N) , opens new tab and Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab and payment firms Visa (V.N) , opens new tab and Mastercard (MA.N) , opens new tab. Investors will also be scouring data for signs of the costs and impact of shifting U.S. trade policy. S&P 500 companies are estimated to have increased Q3 earnings by 9.2% from the prior year, with a greater-than-typical number of companies beating profit estimates so far, according to LSEG IBES data. 3/COUNTING ON A CUT Markets are all but certain that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by a quarter-point when it concludes its meeting on Wednesday, and they are showing similar conviction for another trim in December. Still, that year-end cut might be less clear if the government shutdown doesn't end, leaving data-guided policymakers driving blind without official economic indicators. Meanwhile, Trump is expected to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday as part of a trip to Asia and on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation CEO Summit. Trump said on Monday the U.S. and China are set to "come away with" a trade deal. A recent escalation in trade tensions and a standoff over China's restrictions on rare earth exports, as well as U.S. curbs on technology exports amid Trump's threat to impose 100% tariffs, remain a market vexation - and a consideration for the Fed. 4/ IT'S NOT ALL ABOUT THE FED That's right, the Bank of Canada is also expected to cut rates for a second month running on Wednesday with a pick-up in inflation not expected to stand in its way, although Trump's announcement that all trade talks with the country are terminated will cast a cloud. And the European Central Bank meets on Thursday, although it appears to be in "nothing to see here" mode, with a Reuters poll of economists predicting it is likely to leave rates unchanged at 2% for a third straight meeting and remain on hold until the end of the year. Traders see a roughly 65% chance of a quarter-point cut by mid-2026 given the downside risks to economic growth. Headwinds are looming, however. Apart from trade tensions, there is still French political turbulence and an election in the Netherlands on Wednesday dominated by populist cross-currents. So ECB chief Christine Lagarde may be pressed on whether the bloc remains in a "good place." 5/HIKE ON HOLD? The Bank of Japan is likely to forgo a rate hike next Thursday in favour of a move in December or January, but not due to pressure from the country's dovish new premier. Two-thirds of analysts polled by Reuters say fiscal and monetary dove Sanae Takaichi, who ascended to the top job on Tuesday, won't delay monetary tightening, although her oft-repeated view is that the central bank should be aligned with government policies. Instead, analysts and traders point to BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's consistently cautious tone, particularly on potential tariff fallout, even with his board performing a conspicuously hawkish pivot last month. And his desire to see more data - including U.S. Christmas shopping trends - has most analysts eyeing a December hike at the earliest. https://www.reuters.com/business/take-five/global-markets-themes-graphic-2025-10-24/
2025-10-24 07:55
MADRID, Oct 23 (Reuters) - The body of a 56-year-old man has been found buried in mud a year after he was swept away in deadly flash floods in southeastern Spain, authorities said on Thursday. Nearly 240 people died when floodwaters swamped homes, underground car parks and vehicles on the outskirts of Valencia, Spain's third-largest city, on October 29 last year. Sign up here. The man was one of three people still unaccounted for and had already been officially declared dead, said a local court in Catarroja - one of the towns most affected by the floods. He was discovered on Tuesday during earth-moving operations in the town of Manises, about 40 km (25 miles) downstream from Pedralba, where he went missing, it added. Under Spanish procedure, judges are called in when bodies are discovered. The same court, overseen by Judge Nuria Ruiz, is carrying out a judicial investigation into the delayed emergency response to the floods, which rank among Spain's worst natural catastrophes in modern history. A text alert sent by Valencia's regional government warning people to take shelter arrived when buildings were already under water and many people were drowning. On Thursday, the court summoned a local journalist who had lunch with Valencia's conservative regional leader, Carlos Mazon, on the day of the floods. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/one-year-victim-valencia-floods-found-buried-mud-2025-10-23/
2025-10-24 07:45
BUDAPEST, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Hungary is working on finding a way to circumvent U.S. sanctions on Russian oil companies, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Friday, without giving details but giving no indication that he planned to defy the restrictions. U.S. President Donald Trump, a close ally of the Hungarian leader, on Wednesday imposed sanctions on Russia for the first time in his second term, targeting Lukoil and Rosneft, as he tries to pressure Moscow into agreeing a ceasefire in Ukraine. Sign up here. Trump's move drove up oil prices and left questions for Hungary and Slovakia, the biggest buyers of Russian oil in the European Union after securing exemptions from EU restrictions. Orban said that he has talked to Hungary's oil and gas company MOL (MOLB.BU) , opens new tab about the sanctions. "We are working on how to circumvent this sanction," he said in an interview with state radio Kossuth. MOL's refineries in Hungary and Slovakia, with a total capacity to process 14.2 million tonnes of crude oil a year, are reliant on Russian crude transported through the Druzhba pipeline. MOL's Slovak unit Slovnaft said on Thursday it was analysing the possible impact on its operations of U.S. sanctions, which should come into effect later in November. Last year MOL ran into problems with deliveries when Ukraine sanctioned Lukoil. The company struck deals to take ownership of the affected crude oil volumes at the Belarus-Ukraine border to keep flows coming. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hungary-working-how-circumvent-us-sanctions-russian-oil-companies-pm-orban-2025-10-24/
2025-10-24 07:39
Benchmarks pare early-day gains spurred by Thursday's sanctions Brent, US crude both gain over 7% in the week Chinese state oil majors to suspend Russian oil purchases Indian refiners set to cut their Russian crude imports HOUSTON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Friday as skepticism crept into the market about the Trump administration's commitment to sanctions on Russia's two biggest oil companies over the war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures settled 5 cents, or 0.1%, lower at $65.94 a barrel, while U.S. crude futures finished at $61.50 a barrel, down 29 cents, or 0.5%. Sign up here. Both benchmarks had risen earlier in the session, extending gains of more than 5% made on Thursday after the sanctions were announced, but retreated in the last two hours of trading. They still ended the week over 7% higher, the biggest weekly rise since mid-June. "There is renewed skepticism these sanctions will be as harsh as they are said to be," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital LLC. U.S. President Donald Trump hit Russia's Rosneft (ROSN.MM) , opens new tab and Lukoil (LKOH.MM) , opens new tab with sanctions to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end the Ukraine war. The two companies together account for more than 5% of global oil output, and Russia was the world's second-biggest crude oil producer in 2024 after the U.S. The sanctions prompted Chinese state oil majors to suspend Russian oil purchases in the short term, trade sources told Reuters. Refiners in India, the largest buyer of seaborne Russian oil, were set to sharply cut Russian crude imports, industry sources said. "Flows to India are at risk in particular," Janiv Shah, a vice president of oil markets analysis at Rystad Energy, said in a client note. "Challenges to Chinese refiners would be more muted, considering the diversification of crude sources and stock availability." Kuwait's oil minister said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would be ready to offset any shortage in the market by raising production. The U.S. said it was prepared to take further action, while Putin derided the sanctions as an unfriendly act, saying they would not significantly affect the Russian economy and talking up Russia's importance to the global market. Britain imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil last week and the European Union approved a 19th package of sanctions against Russia that includes a ban on imports of Russian liquefied natural gas. The EU also added two Chinese refiners with a combined capacity of 600,000 barrels per day, as well as Chinaoil Hong Kong, a trading arm of PetroChina (601857.SS) , opens new tab, to its Russian sanctions list, its official journal showed on Thursday. Looking ahead, investors were also focusing on a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next week as the pair work to defuse long-standing trade tensions and end a spate of tit-for-tat retaliatory measures. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-dip-after-surge-remain-track-weekly-gain-amid-supply-fears-2025-10-24/
