2025-10-22 04:13

TOKYO, Oct 22 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan will raise its key interest rate in either October or December, a majority of economists said in a Reuters poll, while nearly 96% of them expect borrowing costs to increase at least 25 basis points by end-March. Although Sanae Takaichi, a fiscal dove who insisted the government reassert its sway over the central bank, became prime minister, two-thirds of respondents, 20 of 30, said that would not delay the BOJ's push for slightly tighter monetary conditions. Sign up here. In the October 14-20 poll, 60% of economists, or 45 of 75, expected the Japanese central bank to raise short-term interest rates to 0.75% from 0.50% this quarter. By end-March, about 96%, or 64 of 67, forecast borrowing costs to reach at least 0.75%. Of 35 economists who specified a month for when the BOJ will next hike rates, January next year was top choice with 46%, 31% for December and 14% choosing October. "The balance within the BOJ's policy board is clearly shifting towards interest rate hikes," said Kento Minami, senior economist at Daiwa Securities. While uncertainties on domestic politics and the global economy will likely delay the timing of a rate hike, upside risks to inflation stemming from the yen's depreciation have increased, Minami said. "The case for an earlier rate hike remains unchanged," he said. Financial markets are pricing in about a 40% chance of a rate hike by year-end. Takaichi, who became prime minister on Tuesday, pledged to boost government spending in essential sectors like energy and economic security under her "responsible, proactive fiscal policies." In the poll, 67% of respondents, or 18 of 27, who answered an extra question couldn't say whether they approved or disapproved of Takaichi's economic policies. Separately, nearly two-thirds, 17 of 26, said they were concerned about her policies' impact on fiscal health. "With the ruling party losing its majority in both houses of parliament, it has no choice but to pursue expansionary fiscal policies to secure opposition cooperation," said Junki Iwahashi, senior economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank. Still, Iwahashi added market pressures - like a rise in long-term yields - would act as a restraint on fiscal expansion. (Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/boj-poised-hike-interest-rates-q4-majority-economists-say-2025-10-22/

2025-10-22 00:52

U.S. to sanction Rosneft and Lukoil, in a change of approach Russia says it held exercise with strategic nuclear weapons US says Putin-Trump summit plans on hold MOSCOW/KYIV/WASHINGTON, Oct 22 (Reuters) - The United States hit Russia's major oil companies with sanctions on Wednesday and accused the Russians of a lack of commitment toward ending the war in Ukraine, as Moscow conducted a major training exercise involving nuclear arms. The new sanctions were unveiled one day after plans for a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin fell apart. Trump told reporters he cancelled the meeting because "it didn't feel right to me." Sign up here. The U.S. Treasury Department said Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, were targeted in a bid to damage Moscow's ability to fund its war machine. The move marked a sharp turnaround for the White House, which has veered between pressuring Moscow and taking a more conciliatory approach aimed at securing peace in Ukraine. Only last week Trump appeared ready to hold off on new actions targeting Moscow. "Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire," U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said. Oil prices extended gains after Bessent's comments, rising by more than $2 a barrel. For months, Trump has resisted pressure from U.S. lawmakers to impose energy sanctions, hoping that Putin would agree to end the fighting. But with no end in sight, he said he felt it was time. The U.S. president said, however, that he was still not ready to provide Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, which Kyiv has requested. Talking to reporters as he met NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump said it would take the Ukrainians at least six months to learn how to use them. Ahead of a meeting next week with Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea, Trump said he would like to see Xi use his influence on Putin to halt the fighting. Xi and Putin have formed a strategic alliance between their countries. In a fresh show of force, the Kremlin released video showing General Valery Gerasimov, head of the General Staff, reporting to Putin on the drills. Russia said it fired missiles from ground launchers, submarines and aircraft, including intercontinental ballistic weapons capable of striking the United States. Russia's Defence Ministry said its long-range Tu-22M3 strategic bombers flew over the Baltic Sea, escorted at various points by fighter jets from foreign - presumably NATO - states. At key moments in the war in Ukraine, Putin has issued reminders of Russia's nuclear might as a warning to Kyiv and its Western allies. NATO has also been conducting nuclear deterrence exercises this month. EU countries also approved a 19th package of sanctions against Russia for its war against Ukraine, which includes a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas imports, the Danish rotating presidency of the EU said on Wednesday. The Wall Street Journal said the United States lifted a restriction on Ukraine's use of some long-range missiles provided by Western allies, which would allow Ukraine to increase attacks on targets inside Russia. In a social media post, Trump denied the report. On Wednesday, Sweden said it had signed a letter of intent to export Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine, as European governments act to boost Kyiv's defences in a war that has ground on for three years and eight months since Russia's full-scale invasion, and shows no sign of ending soon. Ukrainian pilots have been in Sweden to test the Gripen, a rugged and relatively low-cost option compared to aircraft such as the U.S. F-35. Kyiv aimed to receive and start using Gripens next year and expected to acquire at least 100, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said during a visit to Swedish defence manufacturer Saab (SAABb.ST) , opens new tab. TRUMP DOESN'T WANT WASTED MEETING Russia and Ukraine pounded each other with heavy overnight missile attacks as renewed uncertainty enveloped the U.S.-led peace effort. After months of stalled diplomacy, Putin and Trump spoke last week and unexpectedly announced they would hold a summit in Hungary that the Kremlin said could take place within a couple of weeks. But following a phone call on Monday between the two countries' top diplomats, the White House said the next day that Trump had no plans to meet Putin "in the immediate future". Trump said he did not want to have a wasted meeting - something the Kremlin said Putin also wanted to avoid. Russian officials said, however, that preparations continued for a summit. "The dates haven't been set yet, but thorough preparation is needed before then, and that takes time," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters. The summit delay came after Russia reiterated to the U.S. its previous terms for reaching a peace deal, including that Ukraine cede control of the whole of the southeastern Donbas region, three sources told Reuters. That amounted to a rejection of Trump's statement last week that both sides should stop at the current front lines. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov was quoted by state news agency RIA as saying he could not confirm that Moscow had conveyed its position as reported by Reuters. SHARES IN EUROPEAN DEFENCE COMPANIES RISE Through the first nine months of his second term, Trump has pressed for an end to the conflict, the deadliest in Europe since World War Two. Sharply critical at times of Zelenskiy, he has also expressed frustration with Putin. European defence shares rose on the delay to the Putin-Trump summit. Most European governments strongly back Kyiv and have pledged to raise military spending to help Ukraine meet its defence needs. European Union leaders are due on Thursday to discuss a proposal to use frozen Russian assets to extend a $163 billion loan to Ukraine. Moscow says the scheme amounts to theft and has vowed to retaliate. A senior Ukrainian official told Reuters Kyiv must have the freedom to choose how to spend the funds, and should not be limited to buying arms from European countries. https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-missile-strikes-spark-fires-send-debris-across-ukraines-kyiv-mayor-says-2025-10-22/

2025-10-21 23:53

Oct 22 (Reuters) - Australia's Woodside Energy (WDS.AX) , opens new tab raised its production forecast for fiscal 2025 on Wednesday, citing continued strong performance across its assets, while reporting a 9.4% fall in third-quarter revenue. The country's biggest independent energy firm expects fiscal 2025 production to be between 192 million and 197 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), higher than its previous outlook of 188 to 195 mmboe. Sign up here. The country's top independent oil and gas producer posted revenue of $3.36 billion for the three months ended September 30, compared with $3.68 billion reported last year and Visible Alpha's consensus estimate of $3 billion. It produced 50.8 million barrels of oil equivalent during the quarter, compared with 53.1 mmboe last year. For the production rise, the firm cited exceptional performance at its Sangomar project in Africa, along with "outstanding reliability" at its Pluto LNG and North West Shelf projects in Australia. (This story has been corrected to say that Woodside recorded a revenue of $3.68 billion in the same quarter last year, not the June quarter, in paragraph 3) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/woodside-energy-raises-full-year-output-forecast-third-quarter-revenue-drops-94-2025-10-21/

2025-10-21 23:49

Heat records broken in parts of Sydney Authorities issue 'red' level wind warnings in New Zealand Fire season usually runs from November through February WELLINGTON/SYDNEY, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Wild, hot winds swept across Australia and New Zealand on Wednesday, fuelling wildfires and sending spring temperatures soaring, breaking October heat records in parts of Sydney. Australia's weather bureau said a powerful mass of hot air that built up over the country’s outback on Tuesday was now moving across the southeast of the country and bringing a spring heatwave. Sign up here. Wind gusts of up to 100 kph (62 mph) raised bushfire threats and forced authorities to issue several total fire bans across New South Wales, the most populous state. A total of 36 fires are burning, with nine yet to be contained, authorities said. Almost 2,000 properties also lost power. Temperatures in Sydney’s central business district soared past 37 C (98.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by the afternoon, while the western suburbs of Penrith and Bankstown nearly reached 40 C, breaking October heat records. "It is still spring and we are seeing these incredibly warm temperatures," said Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Angus Hines. On Sydney's popular Bondi Beach, Tony Evans, a retiree visiting from England, said he was surprised by the wind's heat. "It’s really hot and what surprised me is the temperature of the wind, it's just no cooling effect and actually it seems like it's a heating effect and it’s too warm to be comfortable," he said. The fire season usually runs from November through February, the late southern hemisphere spring through summer. Across the Tasman Sea in New Zealand, authorities issued rare "red" level wind warnings - reserved for only the most extreme weather events - for central and southern parts of the country. Firefighters battled to contain wildfires near Kaikoura on the South Island and in Hawke's Bay on the North Island, fanned by the winds. The fires have so far destroyed several properties, including five homes. Ingka, the parent company of the Swedish furniture giant IKEA, confirmed that fire had burnt some pine trees that were intended for furniture but that it would not impact the company’s global supply chain. The government also declared a state of emergency in the Canterbury region on Wednesday afternoon to assist in the response to the severe weather conditions. Forecaster MetService said it expects gusts could reach 150 kph along the South Island's east coast and up to 140 kph around Wellington, the capital, on Thursday. Heavy rain is also forecast for parts of the country. Authorities said people should stay indoors, avoid travel and prepare for possible power and communications outages. The warnings follow strong winds and heavy rain on Tuesday that left thousands without power and killed a man in a Wellington park when a tree branch fell on him. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/australia-new-zealand-brace-fierce-winds-heat-2025-10-21/

2025-10-21 23:42

RIO DE JANEIRO/SAO PAULO, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Brazilian miner Vale (VALE3.SA) , opens new tab reported on Tuesday its highest quarterly iron ore production since 2018, and said it is on track to reach the upper band of its 2025 production target for its three main businesses. Vale, one of the world's largest iron ore miners, produced 94.4 million metric tons of the steelmaking material in the third quarter, a 3.8% increase year-on-year and the highest since the last three months of 2018. Sign up here. Vale said the performance was boosted by record production for any third quarter in its S11D mining project in northern Brazil and the ramp-up of other projects. The company estimated iron ore output of 325 million to 335 million tons in 2025. In the first nine months of the year, production totaled 245.7 million tons. Vale said its iron ore, copper and nickel businesses "are tracking towards the upper end of the 2025 production guidance ranges," according to its sales and output report. The firm's sales of iron ore, including pellets, rose 5.1% year-on-year to 86 million tons in the quarter, as realized prices of iron ore fines increased 4.2% to $94.4 per ton. Citi analysts led by Alexander Hacking said Vale's results were "solid", and should lead to a "small positive reaction" in its shares. "There were no changes to guidance and these results leave the company well on track for at least the midpoint," they wrote. Vale's copper production came in at 90,800 tons, a 5.7% increase, with the miner citing consistent production in its Brazilian Salobo project and higher concentrate volumes from Canadian assets. Nickel production slipped 0.6% in the period to about 46,800 tons, as maintenance at the Copper Cliff refinery offset record output at the Long Harbour refinery, both in Canada. Vale is set to release full second-quarter earnings on October 30. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/vale-sees-2025-iron-ore-output-top-range-after-strongest-quarter-since-2018-2025-10-21/

2025-10-21 23:34

SEOUL, Oct 22 (Reuters) - South Korea has decided to extend subsidy measures for oil products by two more months until the end of December, but with lower rates of tax cuts, the finance ministry said on Wednesday. From November, the rate of tax cuts for gasoline will be adjusted to 7% from 10% and those for diesel and liquefied petroleum gas butane to 10% from 15%, the ministry said. Sign up here. The ministry said the decision reflected recent trends in oil prices and inflation, as well as the impact on public finances. South Korea started to offer temporary oil tax breaks in November 2021, extending them several times with modifications. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-implement-smaller-fuel-tax-cuts-november-2025-10-21/