2025-10-21 06:19

IMF sees Middle East, North Africa growth picking up Says region has been resilient despite global uncertainty Risks to outlook still to the downside DUBAI, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund, which raised its 2025 growth outlook for the Middle East and North Africa last week, has said that risks for the region are still tilted to the downside, despite a recent improvement in geopolitical tensions. The IMF has lifted its 2025 GDP growth forecast for the MENA region to 3.3%, from 2.6% it projected in May. Sign up here. "The outlook this year reflected a resilience, despite the fact that we live in elevated global uncertainty and a situation where trade tariffs affected most of the world and the geopolitical tensions are still there," Jihad Azour, director of the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia department, told Reuters. Regional oil exporters are benefiting from higher oil production as well as increased public investment and implementation of structural reforms as part of economic diversification efforts. Lower commodity prices, a rebound in tourism and stronger remittances have helped improve growth among oil importing states, with improved access to financial markets and moderating inflation providing support. "Of course, those developments come in a context where uncertainty is still high and the risks are tilted to the downside," Azour said in Dubai, ahead of the launch of the IMF's Regional Economic Outlook report. These included a further softening in oil prices if global demand declines, increased global trade tensions - although the region had so far been less affected than others - and higher global inflation. "Geopolitical tensions in the last couple of weeks have shown signs of improvement but one has to remain vigilant." TOURISM, REMITTANCES BOOST EGYPT GDP FORECAST Growth in Egypt was revised up to 4.3% for 2025, up from 3.8% projected in May, supported by an increase in tourism revenue and strong remittances from Egyptians abroad. Inflation has also plunged from almost 40% in 2023 to 11.7% in September, helped by the IMF's $8 billion bailout programme in March 2024. "We encourage the authorities to accelerate the implementation of two important milestones - divestment and increase the level of clarity under some of the state-owned enterprises," Azour said. He said that IMF discussions with Egypt on the combined fifth and sixth review of its loan programme were ongoing, and expected to be completed during the fourth quarter. Since 2020, the IMF has approved $55.7 billion in financing for countries in the region, with $21.4 billion approved since early 2024 for programmes in Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Pakistan. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/imf-says-risks-middle-east-outlook-tilted-downside-global-uncertainty-2025-10-21/

2025-10-21 06:14

PARIS, Oct 21 (Reuters) - France has raised its bird flu alert level to "high" following the recent emergency of new cases of the disease, the Agriculture Ministry said on Tuesday in a decree on its official journal. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/france-raises-bird-flu-alert-level-high-after-new-cases-2025-10-21/

2025-10-21 06:01

European Chemicals Agency may classify ethanol as dangerous, linked to cancer - FT ECHA Biocidal Products Committee to meet in late November WHO classifies ethanol as safe for hand hygiene Oct 21 (Reuters) - The EU is considering classifying ethanol, an ingredient used in many hand sanitisers, as a dangerous substance that increases the risk of cancer, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday. An internal recommendation on October 10 by one of the working groups within the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) flagged ethanol as a toxic substance, which increased the risk of cancer and pregnancy complications, the FT said, and needed to be replaced in cleaning and other products. Sign up here. The ECHA's Biocidal Products Committee is set to meet between November 25 and November 28. The regulator said that if its expert committee "concludes that ethanol is carcinogenic", it would recommend its substitution, the FT said, adding that the final decision would be made by the European Commission. The European Chemicals Agency did not immediately respond to a Reuters' request for comment. The agency told the FT that ethanol might "still be approved for the intended biocidal uses, if these are considered safe in the light of expected exposure levels or no alternatives are found," stressing that no decision had yet been made. The World Health Organization classifies both ethanol and isopropanol as safe to use for hand hygiene. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/eu-weighs-ban-ethanol-used-hand-sanitisers-over-cancer-fears-ft-reports-2025-10-21/

2025-10-21 06:00

LONDON, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Metals are big news these days. Gold has been punching out record highs with silver playing catch-up. Rare earths sit center stage in the trade stand-off between the U.S. and China and industrial metal supply chains are bending to the new world order of tariffs and geopolitical tension. Sign up here. There was much to discuss at this year's London Metal Exchange (LME) Week seminars and parties. Here are my big five takeaways from last week's annual metals meeting in London. GREEN PREMIUMS The LME's owner, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEx) (0388.HK) , opens new tab, sprang an early LME Week surprise by announcing the creation of a new subsidiary in Dubai. Commodity Pricing and Analysis Ltd (CPAL) will act as pricing administrator for the roll-out , opens new tab of "green" premiums, leveraging the LME's responsible sourcing criteria and trade data from digital platform Metalshub. Metalshub transacted more than $220 million of Class I refined nickel in 2023 and since March 2024 has traded 488 tons , opens new tab of green-ish nickel, defined as metal with a carbon footprint below 20 metric tons per ton of metal. The plan is to use Metalshub prices to generate a sustainable nickel premium, establishing a template for other metals such as copper and aluminium. If there aren't enough trades, CPAL will "apply structured expert judgment" to establish premium levels, assuming they always exist. This is an interesting foray into the world of price reporting agencies such as Fastmarkets, Argus Media and S&P Global Platts. The pivot to Dubai also feels significant, with HKEx presenting it , opens new tab as a way of enhancing connectivity between China and fast-growing metal markets in the Middle East. SMELTERS VERSUS MINERS "You don't have security if you just have stuff in the ground." Smelting is more critical than mining, Richard Holtum, chief executive of trade house Trafigura, said at the LME seminar. If the West wants to break China's chokehold on exotic metals such as gallium and germanium, it will need base metal smelters to produce them, Holtum said. It is an argument that has resonated with the Australian government, which has pledged A$135 million ($87.4 million) to keep two of Trafigura's plants operating. The backdrop is a collapse in smelting fees for copper and, to a lesser extent, zinc. China's aggressive expansion of processing capacity has squeezed margins everywhere else. Spot copper treatment terms are negative, erasing what should be smelters' core revenue stream. Japan, Spain and South Korea issued a rare joint statement on Wednesday expressing deep concerns over the state of affairs in the copper raw materials market. The current benchmark pricing system, where terms are fixed annually or quarterly, may not survive in its current form as smelters look at bespoke bilateral deals or tolling contracts with miners and traders. EVERYONE LOVES DOCTOR COPPER Copper topped the LME seminar poll for the metal with the most price upside. It always does. This year, though, the bulls were out in full force in London. Arguments for higher copper prices include funds reallocating money to hard assets, a dysfunctional raw materials market and low stocks resulting from the redistribution of global inventory to the U.S. Even self-proclaimed contrarians such as Ken Hoffman of consultancy Traubenbach Associates concede the longer-term picture is one of robust demand growth and challenged supply. Global copper demand is set to surge 24% by 2035, according to Wood Mackenzie. The consultancy warns that disruptive sectors such as data centers could "amplify demand and price volatility beyond expectations." A sharp jump in producer premiums for next year's deliveries to European customers helps reinforce the bull narrative. Chilean producer Codelco will charge a premium of $325 per ton over LME cash prices for 2026 term shipments, up from $234 this year. German producer Aurubis (NAFG.DE) , opens new tab had already announced a similar-sized hike to $315 per ton. It's a sign of the tariff times. The mass movement of copper to the U.S. to capitalise on the tariff trade means the rest of the world must pay more to guarantee supply. ALL CHANGE IN ALUMINIUM Jorge Vazquez, head of consultancy HARBOR Aluminum, graced the LME seminar with a maroon knitwear number and surprised the audience even more by turning bullish on the light metal. Vazquez has been consistently bearish in previous years' appearances, but now thinks aluminium will trade above $3,000 per ton, possibly even $4,000, next year, compared with a current price of $2,765 per ton. The change of mind is symptomatic of the market's reappraisal of aluminium supply dynamics. China shows no sign of loosening its smelter capacity cap, and for the first time in decades analysts are starting to worry about whether supply growth will be sufficient to meet demand. GERMANIUM "There is none," according to Theo Ruas, head of global metal sales at U.S. specialty materials company Indium Corp, referring to germanium. China's exports of the chip-making material have plummeted this year after Beijing tightened export restrictions at the end of 2024. The price has soared , opens new tab to 25-year highs, according to Project Blue, but some buyers are struggling to get material at any price, Ruas told attendees at the consultancy's critical materials seminar. Where germanium is today, gallium could be tomorrow. Or any of the other critical minerals dominated by Chinese processing power. Rare earths have emerged as a central bone of contention between the U.S. and China, and Beijing has just upped the ante by adding another five elements to its restricted export list. Even most metal traders have never heard of holmium, erbium, thulium, europium and ytterbium, but now they hold the key to global markets. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/five-key-takeaways-london-metal-exchange-week-2025-10-20/

2025-10-21 05:58

Delhi world's most polluted major city on Tuesday - IQAir Poor air quality partly result of firecrackers Ban on use of firecrackers over Diwali was partly relaxed NEW DELHI, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Air quality in India's capital New Delhi deteriorated to hazardous levels on Tuesday with readings the highest in the world, according to Swiss group IQAir, partly due to the use of firecrackers during Diwali, the Hindu festival of lights. The Supreme Court of India last week relaxed a ban on firecrackers in the city, permitting the use of so-called "green crackers" for a maximum three hours each on Sunday and Monday, although Reuters witnesses saw crackers being set-off outside the allotted times. Sign up here. Emissions from the crackers are 30% to 50% lower than conventional fireworks. IQAir's reading for New Delhi was 442, making the Indian capital the world's most polluted major city. Its PM 2.5 concentration was more than 59 times the World Health Organisation's recommended annual guideline. PM 2.5 refers to particulate matter measuring 2.5 microns or less in diameter that can be carried into the lungs, risking deadly diseases and cardiac problems. India's Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) also rated the city's air quality "very poor" with an air quality index (AQI) measurement of 350. CPCB considers an AQI of 0-50 as good. Delhi is unlikely to get relief in the coming days, with the earth sciences ministry forecasting air quality will remain in the "Very Poor to Poor" category with AQI levels between 201 and 400. India's capital and its neighbouring districts are prone to a thick smog every winter as cold, heavy air traps construction dust, vehicle emissions and smoke from agricultural fires, leaving many of its 20 million residents struggling with respiratory illnesses. In the past, authorities have closed schools, stopped some building work and placed restrictions on private vehicles to tackle the problem. India is not alone among South Asian nations in battling toxic air. In neighbouring Pakistan's Punjab province, which shares a border with India, the government has implemented an 'emergency plan' to tackle pollution, which includes action against farm fires and smoke-emitting vehicles, and use of anti-smog guns in polluted areas. The air quality reading for Lahore, Punjab's capital, was 234, the second highest in the world, IQAir data showed. "Right now, the major issue is the air coming from Indian Punjab and other parts, which is affecting the air quality in various parts of Pakistani Punjab," said Sajid Bashir, a spokesperson for Punjab's Environment Protection Agency. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/delhi-air-quality-hazardous-levels-after-diwali-fireworks-2025-10-21/

2025-10-21 05:52

Yen down 0.76% Dollar index hits six-day high as Trump trade deal optimism boosts market mood ECB warns euro zone banks on potential US dollar funding pressures NEW YORK, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The yen eased to a one-week low on Tuesday after hardline conservative Sanae Takaichi was elected as Japan's prime minister, with traders betting her government could muddy the interest rate outlook and bring about a greater fiscal largesse. Takaichi, the first female PM and leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, won the lower house vote on Tuesday to choose the next prime minister. The move was widely expected by investors after she was backed by the right-wing opposition party Ishin. Sign up here. The Japanese currency was last down 0.76% at 151.895 per dollar , after earlier touching its lowest level against the dollar since October 14, in its biggest single-day fall in two weeks. The yen also struggled against the euro and sterling . Earlier on Tuesday, local media reported that Takaichi had finalized a plan to appoint Satsuki Katayama, a former regional revitalisation minister, as finance minister. During an interview with Reuters in March, Katayama signaled her preference for a stronger yen. Her appointment could give markets cause to rethink the idea of pushing the yen too low. "We continue to assume that inflation and the purchasing power of private households will remain important issues for the new government in order to improve public approval," said Volkmar Baur, FX & Commodity Analyst at Commerzbank. "Therefore, the new government is unlikely to support a depreciation of the Japanese yen," Baur added. Still, Takaichi's support for fiscal stimulus and looser monetary policy kept investors on edge and complicates the Bank of Japan's path for rate increases. "From a political perspective ... there may be considerations to delay monetary tightening until fiscal easing gains traction. The BOJ is thus caught between a rock and a hard place," HSBC chief Asia economist Fred Neumann said. DOLLAR FIRMS In the broader market, currencies were mostly rangebound despite an overall upbeat market mood after U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday he expects to reach a trade deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett also said that the 20-day U.S. federal government shutdown was likely to end this week. Jitters over credit risks among U.S. banks also dissipated slightly. The dollar index, measuring the currency against six peers drew support from a weaker yen and rose to a six-day high. It was last up 0.312% to 98.921. European Central Bank's chief economist Philip Lane said on Tuesday that euro zone banks may come under pressure if U.S. dollar funding - the lifeblood of financial markets - were to dry up, amid concern over Trump's policies. Dollar funding fears have been at the back of central bankers' minds since Trump announced a wave of trade tariffs and began putting pressure on the Federal Reserve earlier this year. The euro fell 0.3% against a strengthening dollar to $1.161, little helped by easing political uncertainty in France. Sterling was down against the dollar despite data on Tuesday showing Britain's borrowing in the first half of the financial year was the highest since the pandemic, as investors said a tough budget next month is priced in. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/yen-guard-ahead-parliament-vote-next-prime-minister-2025-10-21/