2025-10-21 00:57

Investors focus on expectations of oversupply US-China trade talks also in focus, Trump expects fair deal US crude stocks expected to have risen last week - poll NEW YORK, Oct 21 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled higher on Tuesday, bouncing off the previous session's five-month lows, as investors reassessed expectations of a looming glut and sought clarity on the trade dispute between the U.S. and China, the world's two biggest oil consumers. Brent crude futures rose 31 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $61.32 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures for November delivery , which expired on Tuesday's settlement, closed up 30 cents, or 0.5%, at $57.82. Sign up here. Both contracts had hit their lowest since early May on Monday, as record U.S. oil production and the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies to press ahead with planned supply hikes raised expectations of oversupply. However, relatively low U.S. crude and distillate fuel inventories were helping counter some of the pressure on oil benchmarks, Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said. The U.S.-China trade dispute has also increased anticipation that a slowdown in global economic growth will curb demand for oil. Both sides have, however, made some efforts to downplay the disagreement. U.S. President Donald Trump, who is set to meet China's Xi Jinping in South Korea next week, said on Monday he expects to reach a fair trade deal with his counterpart. ANALYSTS DIVIDED ON FUTURE DIRECTION The structure of both WTI and Brent futures curves has started to shift to a contango, where prices for immediate supply are lower than for later delivery. That typically indicates that near-term supply is abundant and demand is declining. Market participants are debating how deep that contango is likely to be. The International Energy Agency earlier this month forecast that a surplus next year would lead to a strongly upward-sloped futures curve, called super contango. However, that has not emerged so far, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said in a note. "While supply concerns have increased in recent weeks again, we believe the oil market is oversupplied but not in a glut," Staunovo noted. "We expect oil prices to stabilize around current levels," he said, adding that prices could come under pressure if trade tensions escalate. A preliminary Reuters poll released on Monday showed that U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely rose last week. "The reality of stock builds appears to be finally here and prices should head lower to put a deeper contango in the market," said Scott Shelton, energy specialist at TP ICAP Group. The U.S. is planning to buy 1 million barrels of crude oil for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-declines-oversupply-fears-2025-10-21/

2025-10-21 00:41

33 of 35 economists expect the BOK to hold rates at 2.50% BENGALURU, Oct 21 (Reuters) - South Korea's central bank will keep its key interest rate unchanged for a third consecutive meeting on Thursday, prioritising economic stability over a recovery in growth, according to a Reuters poll of economists who expect the next rate cut in November. The Bank of Korea (BOK) raised concerns at its previous meeting about risks to financial stability amid an overheated housing market and uncertainty over a trade deal with the United States, which is likely to be finalised at the end of this month, prompting the central bank to remain on hold for now. Sign up here. Nearly 95% of economists, 33 of 35, polled October 14-20 forecast the BOK would hold its base rate (KROCRT=ECI) , opens new tab at 2.50% on October 23. Two predicted a 25-basis-point cut to 2.25%. "It's unlikely for the BOK to move in October because the fundamentals, both economic and the housing market, haven't changed since August and more importantly the household debt issue Korea faces at the moment is not seen slowing down," Kelvin Lam, senior economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said. "The BOK will watch the housing market closely to make sure it is not going to be rising much further before it starts to cut rates again. I think one in November is a potential." After cumulative rate cuts of 100 bps over the past year, house prices have started to rebound, worsening affordability. The price-to-income ratio of an apartment in Seoul sits at 21.3, above 19.4 for London, heightening concerns in a country with one of the world's highest household debt-to-GDP ratios. With growth underperforming due to weak domestic demand and inflation around the BOK's 2% target, a strong majority of economists predict a 25-bps cut to 2.25% in November. The central bank is expected to tread cautiously to avoid further depreciation of the currency as Washington has agreed to reduce duties on imports of South Korean products to 15% in return for Seoul investing $350 billion in the U.S. But U.S. auto tariffs are still in place as the countries remain at odds over the details of the investments. "There is a lot of pushback and there are also people arguing it's better off paying the tariffs than to agree to the investment deal. At the end of the day it's about how the deal is going to be structured," Michelle Lam, economist at Societe Generale, said. "Going forward, I think the investment deal is definitely affecting the sentiment about the Korean won. So how that's going to be executed is still going to be quite important." The Korean won has lost around 2% since the deal was announced on July 30 and the BOK sold a net $800 million in currency market interventions in the second quarter to curb losses. Beyond this year, economists were split on the rate outlook. The median forecast showed another 25-bps cut to 2.00% in the second quarter of next year and then no change through 2026, a shift from a first-quarter cut expected in the August poll. The poll showed Korea's economy would expand 1.0% in 2025, slightly above the BOK's revised forecast of 0.9%, 1.8% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. Inflation was forecast to average 2.0% this year and ease slightly to 1.8% in 2026. (Other stories from the October Reuters global economic poll) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bank-korea-hold-rates-again-stability-takes-priority-cut-november-2025-10-21/

2025-10-21 00:25

Oct 21 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese agreed on Monday to ensure a steady supply of critical minerals and rare earths, as the United States moves to reduce its reliance on Chinese supply. The U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) issued seven letters of interest (LOIs) on Monday for more than $2.2 billion of financing, unlocking up to $5 billion of total investment, to advance critical minerals and supply chain security projects between the two countries. Sign up here. These are the Australian mining companies that have announced details about their receipt of LOIs from EXIM: AGREEMENTS ANNOUNCED ON MONDAY VHM VHM (VHM.AX) , opens new tab received an updated letter of interest from EXIM for up to $200 million in funding, with an improved term of up to 15 years in potential financing, to support development of its Goschen rare earths and mineral sands project in Australia. LATROBE MAGNESIUM Latrobe Magnesium (LMG.AX) , opens new tab said EXIM was prepared to finance up to $122 million for the firm's stage 2 commercial magnesium plant in Victoria, Australia. ARAFURA RARE EARTHS EXIM provided a non-binding LOI in support of Arafura's (ARU.AX) , opens new tab Nolans project in the Northern Territory, with preliminary discussions of EXIM considering up to $300 million of financing support. NORTHERN MINERALS EXIM outlined it would be able to consider financing up to $230 million of potential debt funding to support the development of Northern Minerals' (NTU.AX) , opens new tab Browns Range heavy rare earths project in Western Australia. AGREEMENTS ANNOUNCED PREVIOUSLY FOR PROJECTS IN AUSTRALIA AUSTRALIAN STRATEGIC MATERIALS Australian Strategic Materials (ASM.AX) , opens new tabreceived , opens new tab a LOI from EXIM in March 2024 for a debt funding package of up to $600 million to support construction of its Dubbo rare earths project northwest of Sydney. EQ RESOURCES EQ Resources (EQR.AX) , opens new tab received a LOI from EXIM in June 2025 for a debt facility of up to $34 million to support the Mt Carbine tungsten expansion project in Australia. VICTORY METALS Victory Metals (VTM.AX) , opens new tab in April 2025 secured , opens new tab a $190 million LOI from EXIM for the development of its North Stanmore heavy rare earths, scandium and hafnium project in Western Australia. SUNRISE ENERGY METALS Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL.AX) , opens new tab in September 2025 received , opens new tab a LOI from EXIM for up to $67 million in financing for its Syerston scandium project in New South Wales, Australia. AGREEMENTS ANNOUNCED PREVIOUSLY FOR PROJECTS OUTSIDE AUSTRALIA AMERICAN RARE EARTHS American Rare Earths (ARR.AX) , opens new tab received a LOI from EXIM in September 2024 for a debt funding package of up to $456 million to support construction of the Cowboy State Mine area at its Halleck Creek project in Wyoming. ANSON RESOURCES EXIM offered $330 million in September 2024 to finance the construction of Anson Resources' (ASN.AX) , opens new tab lithium production plant in the Paradox Basin, Utah. METEORIC RESOURCES U.S. EXIM, in March 2024, offered , opens new tab up to $250 million in preliminary support for Australian-listed Meteoric Resources (MEI.AX) , opens new tab, to develop its Caldeira rare earths project in Brazil. IPERIONX IperionX (IPX.AX) , opens new tab said in April 2025 that the EXIM had approved , opens new tab an equipment finance loan of $11 million to support significant expansion of IperionX’s advanced titanium manufacturing capabilities in the U.S. QUANTUM GRAPHITE Australian miner Quantum Graphite said , opens new tab in July 2024 that it had received a term sheet from EXIM for a loan of up to $300 million to fund the Utile project near the North Atlantic Ocean. AMAERO INTERNATIONAL At the beginning of 2025, Amaero International (3DA.AX) , opens new tabsecured , opens new tab a loan of $22.8 million from EXIM as part of the bank's "Make More in America" initiative to strengthen local supply chains. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-bets-australian-miners-break-chinas-grip-critical-minerals-supply-2025-10-21/

2025-10-21 00:00

Oct 21 (Reuters) - BHP Group (BHP.AX) , opens new tab on Tuesday struck an upbeat note on global iron ore demand even as it warned of cooling growth in China, while first-quarter output for the steelmaking element slightly missed estimates on maintenance works at Port Hedland. "Overall macro-economic signals for commodity demand remain resilient, and global growth forecasts are moving higher," said CEO Mike Henry. Sign up here. Earlier in the month, rival Rio Tinto (RIO.AX) , opens new tab flagged Chinese demand had gathered pace as global economies front-loaded investment ahead of looming tariffs. BHP, the world's largest listed miner, said iron ore production from its Western Australia mine operations on a 100% basis was 70.2 million metric tonnes (Mt) in the three months ended September 30, compared with a Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 71.55 Mt. BHP had recorded iron ore output from its Western Australian operations of 71.6 Mt a year earlier. Sales from the operations were broadly in line with the prior year, with BHP reporting a 5% sales rise of higher-value lump. The major rebuild of Car Dumper 3 at Port Hedland, which reduced volumes by 4.3 million tonnes on a 100% basis, was completed about 8% ahead of schedule, BHP said. Car Dumper 3 is a massive machine that unloads iron ore from trains for export and has been rebuilt to extend its life, boost reliability, and keep operations running smoothly after years of heavy use. BHP kept its fiscal 2026 output forecast for Western Australia iron ore unchanged at between 284 Mt and 296 Mt. The group's total copper production for the quarter gained 4% to 493.6 kilo tons and the company kept its 2026 output estimates unchanged. "In copper, major disruptions at some of our competitors’ mines have tightened overall market fundamentals, benefiting our world-class portfolio of assets," Henry said. BHP, which earns most of its profit from iron ore, has been ramping up its push into copper as the metal is seen to have a central role in the transition towards greener forms of energy. BHP added that both stages of Canada's Jansen potash project were making solid progress, with Stage 1 being 73% complete and on track to start production in 2027. The Stage 2 has reached 13% completion. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bhps-first-quarter-iron-ore-output-falls-near-2-2025-10-20/

2025-10-20 23:49

SYDNEY, Oct 21 (Reuters) - The United States and Australia extended financial support to several Australian companies as part of a wide-ranging critical minerals agreement aimed at countering China's hold over the industry, sending the firms' shares sharply higher on Tuesday. Under the deal signed by U.S. President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, the countries pledged to invest at least $1 billion each over the next six months in mining and processing projects and to set a price floor for critical minerals, a step long sought by Western miners. Sign up here. The U.S. Export-Import Bank (EXIM) said it sent seven Letters of Interest (LOIs) totalling more than $2.2 billion to advance U.S.-aligned critical minerals projects in Australia. The LOIs went to Arafura Rare Earths (ARU.AX) , opens new tab, Northern Minerals (NTU.AX) , opens new tab, Graphinex, Latrobe Magnesium (LMG.AX) , opens new tab, VHM (VHM.AX) , opens new tab, RZ Resources and Sunrise Energy Metals (SRL.AX) , opens new tab. They represent the next phase in securing the minerals that power American manufacturing, national security, and other strategic industries, EXIM said in a statement. Shares of Arafura were up 8% in morning trading, while shares of Northern Minerals, Latrobe Magnesium, and VHM jumped 11%, 15% and 20% respectively, although Sunrise was trading lower. That compared with a broader market (.AXJO) , opens new tab gain of 0.7%. The governments said they would also help advance a plan by U.S. aluminium producer Alcoa (AA.N) , opens new tab to build a gallium plant alongside its alumina refinery in Western Australia that could provide up to 10% of global gallium supply. That announcement pushed Alcoa's Australian-listed shares 8% higher. Gallium, a raw material used in the production of alumina, is a critical mineral essential to technology, especially the semiconductor industry and defence sectors. Australia said in a statement that it would provide up to $200 million in concessional equity financing for the project, which includes offtake rights for the Australian government, while the U.S. would also make an equity investment with offtake rights. Alcoa in August signed a joint development agreement with Japan Australia Gallium Associates (JAGA), a venture between the Japanese government and Sojitz Corp (2768.T) , opens new tab, for the project. The company said that once it finishes feasibility work, a special purpose vehicle owned by the U.S. and Australian governments and Alcoa is expected to enter a joint venture with JAGA to construct the plant, which Alcoa would operate. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-australia-invest-2-billion-critical-minerals-advance-alcoa-gallium-project-2025-10-20/

2025-10-20 23:35

Oct 20 (Reuters) - Phillips 66 (PSX.N) , opens new tab and Kinder Morgan (KMI.N) , opens new tab on Monday began soliciting shipper commitments for a proposed pipeline system that will move fuel from the Texas refining hub to bolster supplies in Arizona and California as a spate of refinery closures stokes supply concerns. If constructed, the new pipelines could help ease the strain on West Coast fuel supply from the planned closures of Phillips 66's Los Angeles refinery by the end of this year and Valero Energy's (VLO.N) , opens new tab Benicia refinery next year. Together, those refineries produce about 20% of California's fuel requirements and help meet the needs of neighboring states. The planned closures have caused a scramble by regulators to find alternative means of supply. Sign up here. The system proposed by Phillips 66 and Kinder Morgan will include the construction of a new pipeline from Borger, Texas, to Phoenix. The companies will also reverse the direction of flows on an existing Kinder Morgan pipeline that currently delivers fuel from Colton, California, to Phoenix, they said in a joint statement. Flows will also be reversed on the Phillips 66-operated Gold Pipeline, which currently delivers products from Borger, Texas, to St. Louis, Missouri. Reversing it will help deliver more fuel from Midwestern U.S. refineries into the proposed new pipeline system from Borger to Arizona, called the Western Gateway Pipeline, the companies said. "This is potentially huge news for motorists in California, Las Vegas, Arizona and great news for refiners in the Gulf," GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan said on social media platform X. California drivers pay the highest gasoline prices in the Lower 48 U.S. states and fuel prices were expected to rise further from the planned refinery closures. The new pipeline system could allow Gulf Coast refiners to raise capacity to feed these pipelines, especially in politically advantageous states, De Haan said. Last month, Magellan Pipeline, a subsidiary of ONEOK (OKE.N) , opens new tab, also began gauging interest in a new pipeline system to transport refined products from Houston and southern Oklahoma to delivery locations in El Paso, Texas, and the Phoenix area. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/phillips-66-kinder-morgan-eye-new-pipeline-bolster-us-west-coast-fuel-supply-2025-10-20/