2025-10-20 10:38

MOSCOW, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Russia is prepared to expand cooperation with Iran in all areas, the Kremlin said on Monday. Moscow has close relations with Tehran and condemned U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites earlier this year that were carried out with the stated aim of preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear bomb. Iran denies building a nuclear weapon. Sign up here. Asked by reporters how Russia saw the development of events around Iran's nuclear programme and if Moscow would deepen ties with Tehran, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: "Russia is definitely ready to expand cooperation with Iran in all areas. Iran is our partner, and our relations are developing very dynamically." Peskov said European countries were putting "excessive pressure" on Iran in regards to negotiations over its nuclear programme, adding that the situation was "very complicated". An envoy for Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to meet with Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani later on Monday, less than a week after Larijani met with the Kremlin leader and handed him a message from Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Putin and his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian signed a strategic partnership agreement in January, although the pact does not contain a mutual defence clause. Moscow says it legally supplies Tehran with military equipment, while Iran has provided Russia with drones to use in its war in Ukraine. Russian state nuclear energy giant Rosatom signed a $25-billion deal last month with Iran to build four nuclear power plants in the country, which suffers from electricity shortages and currently has only one operating nuclear power plant, built by Russia in the southern city of Bushehr. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/russia-will-boost-ties-with-iran-kremlin-says-2025-10-20/

2025-10-20 10:35

WASHINGTON/ISTANBUL, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Turkish central bankers told foreign investors in meetings last week that they were increasingly concerned about inflation and suggested they were ready to slow down the pace of interest rate cuts, according to four participants in the discussions. The sources, all foreign investors holding Turkish bonds, attended some of a series of presentations by Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan and his two deputies on the sidelines of the annual IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington. Sign up here. The investors told Reuters that the policymakers gave no specific guidance about how much they could downshift their easing cycle this week, after rate cuts of 250 and 300 basis points in September and July, respectively. But at the events, the central bankers said that they would closely watch market expectations ahead of their policy decision on Thursday, and that they aimed to address what one source called "sticky" inflation observed in recent months. The central bank did not immediately comment on the investors' impressions. Karahan, approached in Washington on the sidelines of the meetings, declined to comment. Earlier this month, he acknowledged that data suggested the disinflation process is slowing. POLL SHOWS UNCERTAINTY ON NEXT RATE CUT Turkey's inflation rate was 33.3% in September, more than expected and marking the first annual rise since a peak of 75.4% in May last year. Monthly and annual readings were also higher than expected in August. According to a Reuters poll, economists expect a 100 basis-point cut this week to 39.5%, based on the median response. But predictions were quite scattered, reflecting uncertainty over how the bank would respond to recently high price readings. Four of the 17 respondents expected the bank to pause its easing while five predicted a 150-point cut and two saw a 250-point reduction. The central bank's last two rate cuts were a bit more aggressive than expected, raising prospects of a course correction, said the four participants. Two said policymakers appeared ready to halt rate cuts if needed. At an Atlantic Council event in Washington that was broadcast online last week, Karahan said: "The downward trend has slowed down a little bit recently, which we are taking note of as important." Progress so far towards price stability is "very significant and encouraging", he added, and he again pledged to keep policy tight until it is achieved. PENDING DEPARTURE OF HAWKISH POLICYMAKER The central bank made a shift in mid-2023, leaving behind years of unorthodox low-rate policy that had sent inflation soaring and the currency plunging. Since then, tighter monetary policy has helped restore reserves and draw foreign investors back to Turkish assets. In Washington, investors said there was some concern over the mandatory age-based retirement in April of Deputy Governor Cevdet Akcay, an influential hawk on the central bank's policy committee. His successor has not yet been announced. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-central-bankers-are-teeing-up-slower-rate-cuts-investors-say-after-2025-10-20/

2025-10-20 10:27

BEIJING, Oct 20 (Reuters) - China's imports of Mongolian coal reached a record monthly high in September, customs data showed on Monday, as Beijing's efforts to tackle overcapacity pushed up domestic prices and sent traders looking for cheaper supply. Mongolia shipped 9.29 million metric tons of coal to China in September, according to China's General Administration of Customs. That marked a 33% surge from a year earlier and the highest monthly level on record since customs started reporting the data in 2015. Sign up here. China has placed restrictions on coal production in recent months following an unexpected supply increase in the first half of the year that weighed on prices, widely perceived to be part of China's so-called "anti-involution" campaign aimed at curbing overcapacity and unsustainably low prices across many industries. The move has pushed domestic thermal coal prices to the highest level in roughly eight months. Futures prices for metallurgical coal used in steelmaking have jumped 30% since the beginning of July. That has been an opportunity for low-cost exporters across the border in Mongolia, according to Simon Wu, senior consultant for metallurgical coal markets at Wood Mackenzie. "Mongolia as a neighbouring country benefits from the short delivery distance, and expands its market share the most," Wu said. Firat Ergene, lead insight analyst for coal at maritime data analysis platform Kpler, said Mongolian coal also benefited from a "diversification incentive". China's coal imports from other suppliers such as Australia and the U.S. have been tumultuous because of trade tensions in recent years. "I think Mongolian coal fulfils the need for a steady long-term supplier." China's September coal imports from top supplier Indonesia also recovered to their highest level in nine months, after Indonesia cancelled a requirement to use a government benchmark unpopular with traders. On a year-on-year basis, Indonesian coal imports rose 1% to 21.48 million tons in September. Below are figures on China's imports from its top four suppliers, in metric tons: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/china-imports-record-amount-mongolian-coal-september-2025-10-20/

2025-10-20 06:38

Trade tensions spur oil demand concerns Trump keeps pressure on India to stop buying Russian oil US crude futures, Brent futures 6-month spreads in contango US crude stocks expected to have risen last week, poll shows HOUSTON, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled at their lowest since early May on Monday as investors weighed a potential global glut, with U.S.-China trade tensions adding to concerns about an economic slowdown and weaker energy demand. Brent crude futures settled down 28 cents, or 0.46%, at $61.01 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures settled down 2 cents, or 0.03%, to $57.52. Sign up here. Both benchmarks fell more than $1 earlier in the session, and both closed at their weakest levels since early May. Oil traders' concerns have shifted from under-supply to over-supply, the futures contract structure of the global benchmark Brent showed. The six-month spreads for Brent and U.S. crude futures both show contracts for earlier loading are trading below those for later loading, a structure known as contango, which encourages traders to pay for storing oil so it can be sold at higher prices when supplies are expected to have shrunk in the future. The Brent contango, which emerged on Thursday for the first time since a brief appearance in May, was trading at its widest since December 2023. The U.S. crude futures contango emerged on Friday for the first time since January 2024. "These glut fears are now descending onto the market, particularly looking forward into 2026. We will start to see floating storage pick up and inland tanks get filled," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. "This is a real bearish narrative that we have not seen in some time," Kilduff added. Both benchmarks declined more than 2% last week, marking their third consecutive weekly decline, partly due to the International Energy Agency's outlook for a growing supply glut in 2026. Both futures contracts spent much of the year in the opposite structure, called backwardation, where prompt prices trade at a premium to later supply. That reflects a perception of tight near-term supply and solid demand. US-CHINA TRADE WAR The two top oil consumers, the United States and China, have renewed their trade war, imposing additional port fees on ships carrying cargo between them - tit-for-tat moves that could disrupt global freight flows. Last week, the head of the World Trade Organization said she had urged the United States and China to de-escalate trade tensions, warning that a decoupling by the world's two largest economies could reduce global economic output by 7% over the longer term. Curbing some of oil's losses on Monday was news that a lobbying group whose board includes U.S. firms such as Oracle (ORCL.N) , opens new tab, Amazon.com (AMZN.O) , opens new tab and Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab is urging President Donald Trump's administration to immediately suspend a rule it says halted billions of dollars' worth of U.S. exports and will prompt China and other countries to drop U.S. firms from their supply chains. Uncertainty remains over what may happen with Russian oil supply, with Trump saying again on Sunday that the United States would maintain "massive" tariffs on India unless it stops buying Russian oil. On the supply side, U.S. energy firms last week added rigs for the first time in three weeks, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BKR.O) , opens new tab said. "Near term, the market is sitting in a classic shoulder-season mix of refinery maintenance, softer product cracks and a watchful eye on weekly U.S. inventory data," analysts at energy consulting firm Gelber and Associates said in a note. Adding further pressure, U.S. crude oil stockpiles were expected to have risen last week, a preliminary Reuters poll on Monday showed. Five analysts polled by Reuters ahead of weekly inventory data estimated on average that crude inventories rose by about 1.5 million barrels in the week to October 17. (This story has been refiled to say 'as,' not 'at,' in the headline) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-slip-concerns-over-us-china-trade-tensions-2025-10-20/

2025-10-20 06:34

China's exports of rare earth magnets fell 6.1% in September Fall in exports fuels trade leverage concerns Xi-Trump summit in S. Korea may tackle rising trade tension BEIJING, Oct 20 (Reuters) - China's exports of rare earth magnets fell in September, reigniting fears that the world's top supplier could wield its dominance over a component key for U.S. defence firms and makers of items from cars to smartphones as leverage in trade talks. In April and May, Beijing squeezed global automakers with export curbs on a range of rare earths items and related magnets, while negotiators faced off over triple-digit U.S. tariffs on goods from the world's second-largest economy. Sign up here. Four months on, after Washington and Beijing unexpectedly reprised threats of fresh tariffs and rare earth export curbs, worry is growing that China could return to the same playbook. That would mean it reneges on a June deal with the United States to ease the flow of critical minerals. China's shipments of rare earth magnets fell 6.1% in September from August, customs data showed on Monday, ending three months of gains, and dropping even before Beijing unveiled a dramatic expansion of its export licensing regime this month. "The sharp swings in rare earth magnet exports show that China knows it holds a key card in international trade talks," said Chim Lee, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit. EXPORTS FALL FROM AUGUST'S SEVEN-MONTH HIGH The September fall to 5,774 tons from a seven-month high of 6,146 tons in August aligns with reports that China is already making it harder for firms to secure licences for exports of rare earth magnets. Its commerce ministry is applying scrutiny similar to that seen in April, at the height of the trade war. On an annual basis, September shipments rose 17.5%. Last week, China's commerce ministry accused the United States of stoking global panic over its rare earth controls by deliberately misunderstanding the curbs, and said it would approve export licences intended for civilian use. Still, analysts worry China could once again entangle civilian commercial users in curbs aimed at choking U.S. defence firms' access to critical materials. "China's ability to throttle rare earth exports is an exceptionally powerful tool," said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group. Apart from disrupting production, such measures would fuel insecurity over access to critical industrial inputs and growing reliance on China, she added. "The world has to adjust to its management style," she said, adding that Western countries are not used to complying with a monopolistic control of critical resources from countries on 'the other side'. By country, Germany, South Korea, Vietnam, the United States and Mexico were the top five export destinations for Chinese rare earth magnets by volume last month. Over the nine months of the year, exports of such magnets totalled 39,817 tons, a fall of 7.5% from the corresponding 2024 period. NO SIGN OF BEIJING BACKING DOWN Shipments to the United States fell 28.7% in September on the month, the data showed, while exports to Vietnam rose 57.5% over the same period. The Netherlands processed 109% more rare earth magnets than in August, though the figure is skewed by the huge Rotterdam port, a major transit hub for Europe-bound trade. Just before the release of the data, President Donald Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he did not want China to "play the rare earth game with us". He suggested he might hold off on raising tariffs back to levels in excess of 100% if the world's top agricultural buyer committed to purchasing U.S. soybeans. But Beijing shows no sign of backing down, adamant that its new wider curbs, set to take effect just days before the November 10 expiry of the latest 90-day tariff truce with the United States, are consistent with measures in other major economies. President Xi Jinping is set to meet Trump in South Korea later this month, but economists warn that trade friction between the two biggest economies may be the new normal. "The surge in exports during the third quarter came after it (China) eased export controls earlier in the year, but that's likely to drop again following the tighter restrictions introduced recently," added EIU analyst Chim Lee. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-september-rare-earth-magnet-exports-fall-6-seven-month-high-2025-10-20/

2025-10-20 06:07

Trump says India pledged to cut Russian crude imports India bought 40% of Russian crude exports so far in 2025 Halting purchases will hurt Moscow, but is unlikely to cut its exports LONDON, Oct 20 (Reuters) - Donald Trump is putting more pressure on India to slash its Russian oil purchases. This could deprive Moscow of vital revenue, but it will mostly just push more Russian oil into an increasingly large shadow market. The U.S. president said on Wednesday that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to stop buying oil from Russia, an agreement India has yet to confirm. Sign up here. India has become a major trade buyer of Russian oil since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. It purchased 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russia’s crude in the first nine months of 2025, 40% of its total exports, according to the International Energy Agency. This U.S. pressure on New Delhi comes as Kyiv has been striking Russia’s energy infrastructure. Moreover, Trump appears to be focused once again on resolving the conflict in Ukraine after negotiating a ceasefire in Gaza. He announced last week that he and Russian President Vladimir Putin will be meeting for another summit after a “successful” phone call. This all suggests that we may be entering a new stage in the West’s efforts to squeeze the Kremlin, so barring a breakthrough at the upcoming summit, the pressure on India to trim its Russian crude purchase is unlikely to let up. A FINANCIAL HIT India probably will acquiesce to U.S. pressure as part of a broad trade deal. Washington has already hit Indian goods with a 25% import tariff in retaliation for New Delhi’s purchases of Russian oil. Indeed, some Indian refiners are already preparing to cut Russian oil imports, though any drop won’t be visible before December at the earliest. Meanwhile, Indian refiners face another challenge. The European Union will impose a ban on imports of fuel refined from Russian crude as of January 21 next year. Europe accounts for over a third of India’s diesel and aviation fuel exports. The new U.S. and EU measures will likely be financially painful for India's refineries, as they have been enjoying healthy margins by buying Russian crude at significant discounts to international prices. And the two countries’ energy markets are already heavily intertwined. Private refiner Reliance (RELI.NS) , opens new tab, which operates one of the world's largest refining complexes in western India, last year signed a giant 10-year deal with Russian state-owned oil firm Rosneft (ROSN.MM) , opens new tab to supply nearly 500,000 bpd of crude. Rosneft also owns a 49% stake in another major Indian refiner, Nayara, whose 400,000 bpd Vadinar refinery relies exclusively on Russian oil imports. It already faces EU and British sanctions, which have caused it to reduce its operating rates, though it is unlikely to fully cease importing Russian crude. CHINA TO THE RESCUE? But let’s assume that India can severely cut its Russian oil purchases, even if it can’t reduce them to zero. What would happen to the Russian crude volumes India stops buying? First, Chinese refiners may opt to increase their purchases, particularly if the discount with international prices widens. China remains the biggest buyer of Russian oil, importing 2.1 million bpd between January and September via land and sea, roughly 18% of the country's total crude imports. It has also tightened its energy ties with Moscow this year and is importing liquefied natural gas from a heavily sanctioned Russian plant , opens new tab. Yet Beijing has historically refrained from relying on one country for more than 20% of its oil imports. So by that measure, refiners would likely have little capacity to increase Russian barrels that India could reasonably be expected to reduce. Moreover, Trump is also putting pressure on China to reduce Russian oil purchases amid simmering trade tensions between the world’s two largest economies. Beijing might therefore be wary of further provoking Washington, particularly given that it can already buy crude at attractive prices. INTO THE SHADOWS Any remaining Russian barrels will thus likely move into the rapidly growing shadow market. Russia has developed a vast network of ageing tankers to evade international sanctions. In September, 69% of Russia's seaborne crude exports were carried on "shadow fleet" tankers, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. This vast trade scheme often uses ship-to-ship oil transfers in mid-ocean to obscure the oil supplies’ origins. It is therefore likely that any Russian oil that would typically have gone to India directly will simply end up in the shadow market. At that point, its country of origin would be obscured, meaning it could end up in many places, including India. To be sure, the loss of a major market such as India will certainly narrow Russia’s pool of buyers, forcing it to sell oil at bigger discounts, eating into Moscow’s revenue. Already, lower oil and gas prices are hitting Moscow’s budget , opens new tab. But the West’s efforts to squeeze Russia’s vast oil industry are unlikely to lead to a drop in Russian production or exports. They may simply reduce visibility in what is becoming an increasingly opaque market. Want to receive my column in your inbox every Monday and Thursday, along with additional energy insights and links to trending stories? Sign up for my Power Up newsletter here. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), , opens new tabyour essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI , opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trumps-india-squeeze-push-russian-oil-further-into-shadows-2025-10-20/