2025-10-15 11:27
Trump said Russia's economy is near collapse US President said Russians queueing for gasoline Russia's Novak says domestic gasoline market is stable Kremlin says Russia's economy is strong enough MOSCOW, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The Kremlin on Wednesday pushed back at U.S. President Donald Trump's warning that the Russian economy was going to collapse, saying that Russia had considerable reserves and was strong enough to allow President Vladimir Putin to achieve his goals. Trump on Tuesday said that Putin should settle the war in Ukraine which was making Russia look bad. He also mentioned "long lines waiting for gasoline" and said the Russian "economy is going to collapse". Sign up here. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he did not want to comment on Trump's remarks about Russia but that Putin was open to searching for a way to end the war and that Moscow was grateful to Trump for his efforts. "As for the Russian economy, it has a sufficient and considerable margin of safety to allow the country's leadership and all of us to implement the plans that we set for ourselves," Peskov told reporters. After Trump cast the BRICS grouping as "an attack on the dollar," Peskov said that the group of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and others was never aimed at other countries or their currencies. IMF PREDICTS ONLY FAINT GROWTH Russia's economy is slowing sharply this year and the government forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.0% after 4.3% growth in 2024 and 4.1% growth in 2023, though the International Monetary Fund has downgraded its 2025 forecast to 0.6% from 0.9%. During Putin's first two terms as president from 2000 to 2008, Russia's economy soared to $1.7 trillion from less than $200 billion in 1999. But Russia's nominal GDP is now $2.2 trillion, about the same level it was in 2013, the year before Russia annexed Crimea. With Russia and Ukraine locked into a draining drone and artillery war of attrition for a fourth year, the economy is becoming a major area of competition between the West and Russia. ECONOMIC WAR Ukraine's Western supporters say that Russia's economy is weaker than it looks and if pressure is increased then the pain of ordinary Russians will force Putin to change course. The Kremlin says that the economy is being slowed on purpose to stop overheating and far outperformed the G7 average over 2023 and 2024 despite the most onerous sanctions ever imposed on a major economy. Asked about Trump's remarks at an energy conference in Moscow, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who oversees energy and the economy for the government, said that Russia had a stable supply of gasoline. "We have a stable domestic market supply, we see no problems in this regard," Novak said. "The balance is maintained between production and consumption, and we, on the part of the government and the relevant ministries, are doing everything to ensure that this remains the case." Double-digit interest rates deterred the biggest Russian retailers from buying up gasoline in the winter months when there was a surplus and then a series of Ukrainian drone attacks knocked out a chunk of Russian refinery capacity. That led to some gasoline shortages in regions in the periphery of Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, though the government has moved swiftly to prioritise supplies to regions with shortages. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-pushes-back-against-trump-warning-that-russian-economy-is-near-collapse-2025-10-15/
2025-10-15 10:41
Oct 15 (Reuters) - U.S. grain trader and processor Bunge (BG.N) , opens new tab on Wednesday lowered its 2025 earnings forecast following its merger with Viterra, and said it is overhauling segment and volume reporting to align with its integrated operations. Shares of the company, however, rose 4.7% in premarket trading. UBS analyst Manav Gupta said that investors had feared a worse outlook. Sign up here. "Dilution is coming in much better than expected. This lifts the overhang on the stock and we expect a big relief rally in this name," Gupta said in a note. In July, Bunge completed its merger with Glencore-backed (GLEN.L) , opens new tab Viterra, two years after announcing the $34 billion mega-deal. The merger with the Netherlands-based Viterra creates a global crop trading and processing giant that is poised to rival agribusiness giants Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM.N) , opens new tab and Cargill. "We believe based on updated provided today, that Viterra might not cause any dilution in 2026, setting up for a potentially big beat and raise for 2026," Gupta added. Meanwhile, slumping grain prices, weak crop-processing margins and geopolitical tensions have eroded profitability in the sector. From the third quarter, its results will include separate segments for soybean, softseed, other oilseeds, as well as another division for grain merchandising and milling. The company now expects 2025 adjusted earnings per share between $7.30 and $7.60, compared with $7.75 per share forecast earlier. Analysts estimate the company's full-year adjusted profit per share at $7.47, according to data compiled by LSEG. Bunge is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on November 5. Analysts on average were expecting the company to report a quarterly adjusted profit of $1.33 per share. https://www.reuters.com/business/grain-trader-bunge-lowers-full-year-profit-forecast-after-viterra-deal-2025-10-15/
2025-10-15 10:36
Norway plans to phase out EV tax exemptions by 2027 Finance Minister Stoltenberg cites achievement of EV sales goal Parliamentary negotiations needed for budget's approval Pro-EV lobby group wants staggered phase-out OSLO, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Norway plans to eliminate its main subsidy for electric vehicles over the next two years, the government said on Wednesday, adding thousands of dollars to the cost of new cars like Tesla's (TSLA.O) , opens new tab Model Y, the country's top-selling automobile. Fully electric vehicles accounted for a record 98.3% of all new cars sold in the Nordic nation last month, registration data shows, in line with a long-held aspiration in Norway of ending the sale of petrol and diesel combustion engines by 2025. Sign up here. "We have had a goal that all new passenger cars should be electric by 2025, and ... we can say that the goal has been achieved," Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement. "Therefore, the time is ripe to phase out the benefits." EV LOBBY GROUP CALLS MOVE 'HASTY', WANTS STAGGERED PHASE-OUT For years, oil-rich Norway exempted EVs from all taxes applied to combustion-engine vehicles to speed up the transition, a policy that came at a cost of billions of dollars annually in lost revenue for the state. In 2023, however, it introduced a 25% value-added tax on the portion of an EV's price over 500,000 crowns ($49,508), affecting mostly high-end models such as the BMW iX (BMWG.DE) , opens new tab, Tesla X and Porsche Taycan (P911_p.DE) , opens new tab, while shielding mass-market cars. For Tesla's mid-range EVs, only the most expensive so-called "performance" four-wheel drive version of the Model Y is currently subject to VAT, the company's website shows. But in 2026, Norway plans to lower its EV tax exemption to 300,000 crowns, the government said in its proposal for next year's budget, and begin collecting VAT on all versions of the Model Y and similarly priced mid-market cars like Volkswagen's ID.4. In 2027, the final VAT exemptions will be removed altogether, it said, subjecting all EVs to the full tax, if parliament approves the plan. At the same time, the government said it plans to increase the one-time levy charged at the point of initial registration for fossil fuel-powered vehicles to maintain the overall incentives for choosing electric cars. However, the Norwegian EV Association, a pro-EV lobby group, called the changes "hasty" and argued for a more staggered reduction of the VAT limit. "I worry that sudden and major changes will make more people choose fossil-fuel cars again, and I think everyone agrees that we don't want to go back there," its head, Christina Bu, said in a statement. Seven out of 10 cars on Norway's roads are still fossil-fuel vehicles, according to the association. MORE SPENDING FROM WEALTH FUND The government rules in a minority and will need to negotiate its budget proposal with four parties in parliament. The Model Y, Norway's best-selling car in each of the last three years, currently starts at 422,000 crowns for the cheapest version and could therefore be subject to VAT of 30,500 crowns, if a 25% rate is applied to the portion exceeding 300,000 crowns. If the VAT exemption is eliminated the following year, it would add another 75,000 crowns to the cost of the car. The government, meanwhile, proposed increasing spending from the sovereign wealth fund to 579.4 billion crowns in 2026, from a revised 534.2 billion in 2025, to help cover public expenses. The finance ministry revised upward its economic growth projections excluding the oil industry to 2.0% this year and 2.1% in 2026, and sees core inflation at 2.9% this year, easing 2.5% in 2026. ($1 = 10.0994 Norwegian crowns) https://www.reuters.com/business/norway-proposes-widening-ev-tax-include-mass-market-tesla-models-2025-10-15/
2025-10-15 10:36
Oct 15 - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. Edgier world markets appeared to bat away the latest testy exchanges in the re-heated U.S.-China trade war, helped by dovish soundings from the Federal Reserve boss that included signals about an imminent end to its balance sheet rundown. As gold spiraled on to new highs, in what global fund managers see as the most crowded trade on the planet, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fell after Fed Chair Jerome Powell fretted about a softening labor market and said the central bank may soon halt the reduction of bonds held on its balance sheet - a process known as quantitative tightening. "We may approach that point in coming months," Powell said, adding that "some signs have begun to emerge that liquidity conditions are gradually tightening." Whatever liquidity concerns Powell was watching, it wasn't showing up in the latest sweep of bumper earnings from the big U.S. banks on Tuesday - with more updates on Wednesday's diary. But the Fed direction is helping markets navigate the outage of economic data during the government shutdown and also the fresh barbs in the U.S.-China trade standoff, with President Donald Trump saying he was considering terminating some trade ties with China - singling out cooking oil as one. U.S. stock futures rallied ahead of Wednesday's bell and the VIX volatility gauge retreated, with global equity and bond markets rallying broadly too. Even though new tensions in the trade row may already raise questions about its forecasts, the International Monetary Fund nudged up its world economic outlook for 2026. Despite the trade anxiety and another worrying set of deflationary signals from China, equity markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong jumped more than 1% on hopes of more economic stimulus plans at next week's Communist Party plenum. In Europe, French stocks and bonds and the euro advanced also on Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's decision to delay pension reforms until after the 2027 election, a move that gave investors more confidence the shaky government can avoid another destabilizing election soon. LVMH's return to growth in the third quarter helped the luxury sector and France's CAC40 index hit its highest since March. In today's column, I discuss why the "phoney trade war" may be ending - and why the real impacts may now start to emerge and a nervier winter could bring back market volatility. Today's Market Minute * Deflationary pressures persisted in China, with both consumer and producer prices falling in September, supporting the case for more policy measures as a prolonged property market slump and trade tensions weigh on confidence. * The U.S. and China on Tuesday began charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil, making the high seas a key front in the trade war between the world's two largest economies. * Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday, as investors weighed the International Energy Agency's prediction of a supply surplus in 2026 and trade tensions between the United States and China that could curtail demand. * The abrupt cuts to U.S. federal clean energy incentives alongside fresh support for coal and gas-fired power will trigger a swell in North America's emissions in the coming decades as the U.S. generation mix remains fossil fuel reliant, writes ROI global energy transition columnist Gavin Maguire. * China is once again rolling out the big cannon of curbs on metals and minerals vital to the global energy transition, as well as key components in weapons and electronics. Read the latest from ROI Asia commodities columnist Clyde Russell. Chart of the day Global sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles rose 26% in September from a year ago to a record 2.1 million units, driven by strong demand in China and a late U.S. tax-credit rush, market research firm Rho Motion said on Wednesday. China accounted for about two-thirds of global sales with about 1.3 million units, while North America also hit a record as U.S. buyers moved to secure incentives before they expired. Today's events to watch * Federal Reserve issues the Beige Book on economic conditions (2:00 PM EDT) New York Federal Reserve's October manufacturing survey (8:30 AM EDT) September real weekly earnings (8:30 AM EDT); Brazil Aug retail sales (8:00 AM EDT) * Federal Reserve Board Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller both speak, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Atlanta Fed boss Raphael Bostic also speak; European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks; Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock speaks * International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Washington. The Institute of International Finance holds its annual meeting in parallel. * U.S. corporate earnings: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Citizens, Synchrony, Abbott Laboratories, Prologis, United Airlines, JB Hunt * U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Argentina's president Javier Milei to the White House Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-10-15/
2025-10-15 10:22
LONDON, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The pound firmed against a broadly weaker dollar on Wednesday, as Britain's finance minister Rachel Reeves confirmed tax rises and spending cuts are on the horizon, and market focus stays on the Bank of England's rate path. The pound was up 0.2% against the dollar at $1.3349 and 0.1% firmer versus the euro at 87.15 pence . Sign up here. Britain's currency was benefiting from broad pressure on the dollar, which softened as markets interpreted comments made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday as dovish, and risk sentiment improved. Reeves said on Wednesday she was looking at both tax rises and spending cuts for her budget on November 26, confirming widely held expectations given her pledges about balancing the country's books. Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, said the pound's 2025 gains versus the dollar will be tougher to hold on to amid pressure coming from the UK's precarious fiscal position. "I'm not sure how many sellers are left in the short USD trade but I would tend to favour a pre-Budget retreat to the 1.30 support before we maybe see some fiscal tightening that is more than the market is expecting," he said, adding that this could push down yields and weigh on the pound into the year-end. The pound came off a peak of $1.3787 in July but remains up 6.8% versus the dollar in 2025. Markets are still digesting Tuesday's data that showed growth in average British earnings slowed slightly in the three months to August, suggesting the Bank of England may be able to continue cutting rates cautiously. But British inflation, which looks set to remain the highest in the Group of Seven advanced economies this year and next, has also been under the spotlight. The International Monetary Fund's chief economist said on Tuesday that the Bank of England needs to be "very cautious" about future rate cuts. Money markets are placing an 87% chance of no change at the BoE's next meeting on November 6. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-strengthens-against-weaker-dollar-reeves-budget-plans-focus-2025-10-15/
2025-10-15 08:24
MUMBAI, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India's liquidity infusion via a phased cash reserve ratio cut had less impact than expected as dollar sales and maturing FX forwards drained funds, poising short-term rates for a rise, four analysts said. In June, the central bank announced a phased 100-basis-points CRR cut from September to November to release about 2.5 trillion rupees ($28.3 billion), but analysts said the liquidity boost has proved far smaller than the expected 1.25 trillion rupees. Sign up here. "Although the CRR requirement in the banking system has declined, much of this liquidity has been absorbed due to the RBI's foreign exchange market interventions. As a result, the net liquidity injection has not been substantial," said Vikas Garg, head of fixed income at Invesco Mutual Fund. A cut in the CRR frees up funds that banks must otherwise park with the central bank, boosting liquidity and typically easing short-term rates. When that liquidity boost is muted, funding costs can stay high. Half of the planned CRR cut has taken effect, yet banking system liquidity briefly slipped into deficit last month. "We have held a view that the CRR cut was not even going to fully offset the FX forward book maturity drain from domestic banking liquidity, and that is playing out," said Dhiraj Nim, economist and FX strategist at ANZ. The RBI has $14.45 billion in forwards maturing in October–November after $5.85 billion rolled off in September, while rupee-supporting interventions since late August amid U.S. tariff and visa pressures have further drained liquidity, analysts said. On Wednesday, the RBI intervened heavily in the currency market to bolster the rupee, mirroring its February strategy. Post-February, the central bank had initiated significant liquidity infusions, and traders expect a similar approach. "Today's intervention has opened up doors for open market purchases, if not immediately, then maybe after the remaining CRR cut takes effect," said VRC Reddy, treasury head at Karur Vysya Bank. The daily average banking system liquidity surplus has dropped to 1.3 trillion rupees since September 6, when the first CRR cut took effect, compared to 2.8 trillion rupees between August 1 and September 5. "If a durable gap emerges, intervention through permanent liquidity tools cannot be ruled out, and if yields do rise sharply, the RBI can step in with OMOs," ANZ's Nim added. ($1 = 88.3520 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-rbis-liquidity-boost-falters-amid-fx-market-intervention-analysts-say-2025-10-15/
