2025-10-14 21:07

NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Alden Bentley, Editor in Charge, Americas Finance and Markets Sign up here. Jamie McGeever is enjoying some well-deserved time off, but the Reuters markets team will still keep you up to date on what's happening in markets. U.S. central bank chief Jerome Powell steadied the market, which has been whipsawed in recent sessions by a flare-up in U.S.-China trade tensions. I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me with comments at [email protected] , opens new tab Today's Key Reads Fed's Powell says economy may be on firmer footing, but job market weak US, China roll out tit-for-tat port fees, threatening more turmoil at sea US banking giants buoyed by dealmaking, but warn of asset price bubbles Wall Street's fear gauge climbs as US-China trade fears rise Long Treasury yields to stay elevated as inflation, debt pressures blunt Fed easing: Reuters poll Today's Key Market Moves STOCKS: The S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab and Dow (.DJI) , opens new tab shook off early losses, steadying on the back of comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and strong earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) , opens new tab, Goldman Sachs (GS.N) , opens new tab, Citigroup (C.N) , opens new tab and Wells Fargo (WFC.N) , opens new tab. The S&P closed slightly lower, but the Dow (.DJI) , opens new tab held gains while the Nasdaq (.IXIC) , opens new tab remained on the ropes all day amid a pullback in tech shares. SHARES/SECTORS: Wells Fargo and Citi were up sharply while JPMorgan and Goldman shares were lower. Financials are the top-performing S&P 500 sector on the day, followed closely by Industrials, led by Caterpillar (CAT.N) , opens new tab after JPMorgan raised its price target. Market cap leader Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab was down sharply and Information Technology was the only losing sector. FX: The U.S. dollar eased. The safe-haven Swiss franc and Japanese yen gained following renewed signs of strain in U.S.-China trade relations, while the euro was supported after the French government proposed to suspend landmark pension reform. BONDS: U.S. Treasury yields declined as concerns about trade tensions between China and the U.S. dented risk appetite, while Powell's comments suggested the Fed remained on course to cut rates. COMMODITIES: Oil prices tumbled after the International Energy Agency warned of a huge supply glut in 2026. Gold prices set a new record high on rising expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this month and safe-haven demand on trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. CRYPTO: Bitcoin fell as low as $110,023.78 and was last down 1.9%. The world's largest cryptocurrency hit a record high above $126,000 on October 6. Today's Key Talking Points After major U.S. indexes fell again overnight, bulls recaptured control following comments by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell that reassured investors that even without the latest government data, indications were the economy remained on a firm trajectory, while labor market conditions were not a deal breaker for further easing. He also reduced concerns about tight financial conditions by holding out the prospect of ending the Fed's balance sheet run-off. At the same time, solid results from some of the nation's largest banks set up earnings season on a positive note. The Cboe Volatility Index (.VIX) , opens new tab jumped to its highest in nearly five months before paring gains, reflecting the whipsaw stock market action since Friday on renewed concerns over a U.S.-China trade conflict. For the moment tariffs seem to have reclaimed top position as the market influence from Artificial Intelligence. AI excitement helped lift the S&P 500 to record highs last week and the benchmark is only about 1% away. Wall Street started the session on the back foot after Washington and Beijing moved to slap tit-for-tat additional port fees on ocean shipping firms. The previous two sessions saw a bungee-like drop and rebound after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened, then seemed to downplay, punishing China over rare earth export controls with 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. Graphics What could move markets tomorrow? * Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, United Airlines report earnings * Numerous Fed officials speak, including recent Trump appointment to the Board of Governors Stephen Miran participating at a CNBC forum in Washington DC Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Trading Day is also sent by email every weekday morning. Think your friend or colleague should know about us? Forward this newsletter to them. They can also sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-trading-day-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 20:28

Wells Fargo advances on Q3 profit beat Citigroup profit climbs on record revenue Industrial stocks lift Dow S&P 500 -0.16%, Nasdaq -0.76%, Dow +0.44% Oct 14 (Reuters) - Wall Street ended mixed on Tuesday as investors digested mostly positive quarterly results from big U.S. banks, comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and an ongoing U.S.-China trade war. The S&P 500 turned lower after U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington was considering t, including in relation to cooking oil. Sign up here. A slew of major lenders reported solid results on strong performance in the investment banking segment, helping the S&P 500 banking index (.SPXBK) , opens new tab rally. Wells Fargo (WFC.N) , opens new tab closed 7.15% higher, its biggest one-day percentage gain since November 2024, and Citigroup (C.N) , opens new tab jumped almost 4% after both lenders beat estimates for third-quarter profit. JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) , opens new tab raised its full-year forecast for net interest income and Goldman Sachs (GS.N) , opens new tab beat Wall Street expectations for quarterly profit. However, shares of both banks dipped about 2%. BlackRock's (BLK.N) , opens new tab assets under management hit a record $13.46 trillion, lifting its shares over 3%. Adding to concerns about the China-U.S. trade war, the two countries began charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil. Global equities were shaken on Friday after Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods after Beijing imposed controls on the export of rare earth minerals, although he softened his tone over the weekend. "The market is really struggling with where this shakes out," said Ross Mayfield, an investment strategist at Baird Private Wealth Management. "If the (Trump) administration feels like ramping up these tensions again, the market looks pretty expensive right now for that sort of fight, especially if 100% tariffs and other measures are back on the board." The U.S. labor market remained mired in its low-hiring, low-firing doldrums through September, though the economy overall "may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected," Powell said in remarks prepared for delivery at a National Association for Business Economics conference. The S&P 500 declined 0.16% to end the session at 6,644.31 points. The Nasdaq declined 0.76% to 22,521.70 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.44% to 46,270.46 points. Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rose, led by consumer staples (.SPLRCS) , opens new tab, up 1.72%, followed by a 1.17% gain in industrials (.SPLRCI) , opens new tab. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 20.1 billion shares, compared with an average of 20.2 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions. Walmart (WMT.N) , opens new tab rose 5% after the retailer said it was partnering with OpenAI to enable customers and Sam's Club members to shop directly within ChatGPT. Gains in industrial stocks supported the Dow. Caterpillar (CAT.N) , opens new tab jumped 4.5% after JP Morgan raised its price target on the stock. The International Monetary Fund marginally Advancing issues outnumbered falling ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) , opens new tab by a 3.4-to-one ratio. The S&P 500 posted 23 new highs and 10 new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 123 new highs and 93 new lows. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/wall-street-futures-dip-us-china-tensions-weigh-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 20:03

U.S. cooking oil imports from China dropped 65% this year Trump's comments have minimal impact, traders say China shifts soybean purchases to Brazil, Argentina WASHINGTON/BEIJING, Oct 15 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said he was considering terminating some trade ties with China, singling out cooking oil, which traders and analysts said would have little impact as such shipments had already plummeted from China over the past year. "I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution," Trump wrote on social media on Tuesday. Sign up here. "As an example, we can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don't need to purchase it from China." The U.S. was China's top market for used cooking oil (UCO), importing a record 1.27 million metric tons worth $1.1 billion in 2024. But after China cut tax rebates late last year and the U.S. imposed tariffs on Chinese goods this year, imports plunged 65% in January-August to 290,690 tons, or $286.7 million. As such, Trump's comments would have "minimal" impact on the commodity, two UCO traders in China said on condition of anonymity as they were not authorized to speak to media. "Domestic producers are now mainly taking orders for Europe and are no longer considering the U.S. market," said one of the traders. SHORT HISTORY AS EXPORT MARKET FOR CHINESE COOKING OIL The U.S. does not have a long history of being a top export market for Chinese used cooking oil, a product that can be converted into renewable diesel and which has helped the U.S. become one of China's top ten export destinations only as recently as 2022. By contrast, the Netherlands, Singapore, Spain and Malaysia have consistently processed hundreds of millions dollars' worth of Chinese UCO over the past decade, Chinese customs data shows. Year-to-date shipments to this year's top buyer Singapore are up 15% from last year at $537 million, while exports to the Netherlands - whose figures are distorted by the Rotterdam megaport - have jumped 131.5% over the same period. Chinese used cooking oil exports to the U.S. had surged in 2023, driven by federal and state incentives supporting biofuels and a rush to build new renewable diesel plants. TRUMP'S ANNOUNCEMENT 'NOT ESCALATORY,' ANALYSTS SAY Analysts said Trump's announcement was not escalatory following a week of fresh tariff threats and export controls. Used cooking oil trade is small compared with that of soybeans. Last year, China imported 22.13 million tons of U.S. soybeans worth $12 billion. But restricting UCO imports allows Trump to show the U.S. agriculture industry he is still being tough on China, some analysts said. "Used cooking oil is a niche trade, but it shows how the Trump Administration is standing up for American farmers, just as China shifts its agricultural purchases towards other suppliers," said senior analyst Chim Lee at the Economist Intelligence Unit. China is the world's largest buyer of soybeans. In recent months it has slashed purchases of U.S. soybeans in favor of Brazilian and Argentine produce. Trump has called the shift a negotiation tactic. He said this month he hoped to discuss soybeans with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping while also saying the U.S. may halt a large share of imports from China. "So from 100% tariffs on all Chinese trade (in response to the rare earth/critical mineral export controls) to targeted sanctions on cooking oil?" Brad Setser, a former U.S. trade official now with the Council on Foreign Relations wrote on X. "Definitely not escalatory." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-mulls-ending-some-trade-ties-with-china-including-relation-cooking-oil-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 19:45

WASHINGTON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration planned to produce a list on Friday of "Democrat programs" that will be closed as a result of the ongoing federal government shutdown. He did not specify the programs but indicated to reporters at the White House on Tuesday that the closures would be permanent. Sign up here. Meanwhile, the Senate failed in its eighth attempt to pass legislation approved last month by the House of Representatives that would end the shutdown by providing government funding through November 21. The Senate voted 49-45 to advance the bill, short of the 60 yes votes needed in the 100-member Senate controlled by Republicans. The government shutdown entered its third week with Republican and Democratic lawmakers continuing to blame each other for the impasse. "Only Democrats have made demands, and by the way, very expensive demands" in return for voting to reopen the government, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, a Republican, said in a speech to the Senate on Tuesday. Senate Democrats are pushing to use their legislative leverage of withholding necessary votes for a stopgap funding bill to advocate for healthcare fixes. Senator Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat who represents many furloughed federal workers and military personnel, told NPR's Morning Edition on Tuesday it will take Trump engaging with Democrats to end the shutdown. "If the president engages, we can solve this in 48 hours," Kaine said. Some federal workers and military personnel are facing the prospect of missing a paycheck for lack of funds. However, the Trump administration has said that it will redirect some money to avoid any interruptions of troops' pay. Thune did not allow a vote this time on a Democratic alternative, which would reopen the government with temporary funding but also include money to permanently extend a federal healthcare tax credit, which Republicans are opposing. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-he-will-unveil-list-friday-democrat-programs-be-shut-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 19:38

NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. labor market remained mired in its low-hiring, low-firing doldrums through September, though the economy overall "may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday. He noted that at policymakers will take a "meeting-by-meeting" approach to any further interest rate cuts as they balance job market weakness with the fact that inflation remains well above their 2% target. Sign up here. Powell also said the end of the central bank's long-running effort to shrink the size of its holdings, widely known as quantitative tightening, or QT, may be coming into view. His comments came from the text of a speech prepared for delivery before a gathering held by National Association for Business Economics in Philadelphia. MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: U.S. stocks were mixed, with the Dow and S&P 500 up on the day, while the Nasdaq was down. BONDS: U.S. Treasury yields fell, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year note slipping to 4.02% and the two-year note down at 4.6%. FOREX: The dollar index slid in wake of Powell's comments, down 0.3% at 99.03. COMMENTS: CALLIE COX, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, RITHOLTZ WEALTH MANAGEMENT, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA: "Jay Powell dropped a major piece of news when he mentioned that the Fed could stop culling the size of its balance sheet in the coming months. The Fed has been reducing its runoff for months now, but the idea of a stable balance sheet could help lower yields in the middle to long part of the curve. That’s a hidden source of relief – especially to homeowners – that rate cuts alone may not be able to deliver." "Otherwise, Powell didn't say anything too surprising. He repeated the 'no risk-free path' comment, which I'm guessing will be a buzzy monetary policy phrase for the rest of the year. Both sides of the Fed's mandate are still under threat, even though Powell and company have chosen to focus on unemployment. Inflation worries still linger, and they may stick around until a weaker job market starts to put pressure on wages and spending." "It's a good time to think about your saving, borrowing and investing strategies. Today's environment requires a Swiss Army approach of sorts – deploying cash on market drops (but with an eye towards value) and adding fixed income strategically." CHRIS GRISANTI, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST AT MAI CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, NEW YORK: "The Powell speech was somewhat more dovish than I expected. He didn't say anything groundbreaking, but he did emphasize his concern about the slowing job market more than he usually does. Listening to the whole speech, his concerns seemed skewed towards recession rather than inflation. This gave me more confidence in rate cuts coming before the end of the year. Having said that, I am confident that the Fed remains data dependent, and stronger jobs numbers, once we start getting them again, or hot inflation readings could alter this projection. But for now, rates are coming down." STEVE SOSNICK, CHIEF STRATEGIST, INTERACTIVE BROKERS, GREENWICH, CONNECTICUT: "The reason for the sell-off overnight was concerns about the trade war re-accelerating between the US and China. But the markets decided that this isn't really a problem, at least in the short term." "The market was going up anyway. We were down 10 points before he started speaking so this is just the cherry on top of the cake on today's rally ... but the bulk of the move was unrelated to his comments." ADAM SARHAN, CHIEF EXECUTIVE, 50 PARK INVESTMENTS, NEW YORK: "The fact is the (stock) market was extended. It pulled back to support technically, which is the 50-day moving average... and bounced off of it." "The Fed said nothing has changed. Even if (trade) tensions escalate... the Fed is still going to cut rates with the stock market at all-time highs. So, fundamentally, we have a tremendous tailwind coming into effect in the near future." PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK: "I don't think (Powell) is changing his tune whatsoever. He's saying that the economy is on solid footing, but he's also saying we have weakness. What he's doing is he's preparing the markets for a series of rate cuts, but not necessarily in a sequential order." "He's saying is he'll cut (interest rates) by 25 basis points at the end of this month then they'll assess the situation. And if the labor market continues to weaken and actually loses jobs, then he might be setting us up for a jumbo cut of 50 basis points in December." "He's preparing the markets for a rate cut, but he also doesn't want the markets to assume rate cuts are a given. He’s using labor market weakness as a hedge." MICHAEL JAMES, EQUITY SALES TRADER, ROSENBLATT SECURITIES, LOS ANGELES: "I don't think any of these comments from Chairman Powell are going to have any direct impact on the overall market. It continues to be a market of sentiment and positioning. The Trump tariff tweet from Friday, causing all of the decline, seemed to get shrugged off with some of the comments over the weekend. We had a decent rally yesterday and pulling back this morning on some of the China shipping moves but that also was being relatively dismissed. You can see that in the magnitude of the rally that we've had from this morning." "The bulls remain fully in charge and until that's shaken with something more significant than these comments from Chair Powell or anything else, that's likely to be the case into the start of third-quarter tech earnings next week." "There are bigger factors in place related to positioning and up the start of tech earnings season next week that are going to be far bigger determinants of the market's direction than these comments from Chair Powell will be." https://www.reuters.com/business/view-feds-powell-says-economy-firmer-footing-qt-end-view-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 19:37

WASHINGTON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - A trade group representing the aluminum industry called on Tuesday for a ban on U.S. exports of used beverage cans to China to support American production of cars, fighter jets, tanks and satellites. The Aluminum Association said the United States consumes between 5 million to 6 million metric tons of aluminum scrap annually while exporting more than 2 million tons. The group called for an immediate ban on used beverage container exports outside of North America on national security grounds, saying much of U.S. scrap flows to China where it is processed and shipped back as finished goods. Sign up here. The group said the U.S. aluminum industry faces a supply gap of about 4 million metric tons of raw aluminum each year and becoming self-sufficient would "take many years, billions of dollars and access to an enormous amount of affordable energy." The United States exports nearly half of its scrap aluminum. This is even more concerning as demand for aluminum grows in key areas like cars, planes and packaging, the association said. President Donald Trump in June imposed 50% tariffs on aluminum metal shipped to the United States. About two-thirds of the primary aluminum used annually in the United States is imported from Canada. In August, the Commerce Department said it was hiking steel and aluminum tariffs on more than 400 products including numerous auto parts totaling $240 billion in annual imports. The parts include automotive exhaust systems and electrical steel needed for electric vehicles as well as components for buses. U.S. tariffs are not just limited to steel and aluminum themselves, but extend to a range of 'derivative' products made from the metals. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/land-use-biodiversity/trade-group-wants-ban-export-scrap-aluminum-cans-china-2025-10-14/