2025-10-14 13:20

BENGALURU, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Short-dated U.S. Treasury yields will edge lower on expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts even as the long end resists the pull thanks to sticky inflation, swelling deficits and concerns about Fed independence, a Reuters poll showed. The poll, published on Tuesday, surveyed 75 bond strategists between October 9-13. Sign up here. Persistently high long yields threaten to worsen Washington’s rapidly-deteriorating fiscal position. Non-partisan analysts warn President Donald Trump's aggressive tax and spending reforms could add over $3 trillion to the debt pile over the next decade. With growth still strong and inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target, many analysts say policy is not restrictive enough to justify the five rate cuts now priced into rate futures through 2026. Easing too much too soon, they warn, could reignite price pressures and send yields soaring just as the labour market begins to soften. An ongoing government shutdown has further complicated matters, halting key data releases and forcing the Fed to steer policy with limited visibility, raising the risk of missteps as doubts grow over its future independence. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, currently around 4.0%, will trade around 4.10% in three and six months, median forecasts from the poll showed. It is then forecast to rise to 4.17% in a year. Bond yields move inversely to prices. "We don't expect long-term yields to fall much further, if at all. Ten-year Treasuries can still hold above 4% even as the Fed cuts rates, mainly due to inflation being sticky and the overall resilient economy," said Collin Martin, fixed income strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. "Also, we don't think monetary policy is very restrictive right now. We disagree with the implied pricing and think the Fed will cut one more time this year as opposed to markets pricing in closer to two... which would probably result in an upside surprise for yields." That view was echoed across the survey, with 19 of 31 analysts, over 61%, saying 10-year yields were more likely to end the year above their current forecasts than below. YIELD CURVE TO STEEPEN The more interest rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield was forecast to broadly hold its current 3.47%-level at the end of the year and fall to 3.40% in six months and 3.35% in a year, poll medians showed. If realized, that would mean a gradual steepening of the yield curve, with the spread between 10- and 2-year yields rising from around 50 basis points now to 60 bps by the end of 2025 and 82 bps in a year - the highest since January 2022. The New York Fed's measure of 'term premium' - additional compensation demanded by investors for holding longer-term debt - has stayed elevated since the start of 2025, hitting an 11-year high in July. Vincent Reinhart, former Fed staffer and now chief economist at BNY Investments, said the U.S. economy had largely normalised after the pandemic’s price shocks, with supply chains mended, labour markets balanced and inflation on track to return to near 2% next year. "Tariffs interrupted that, and we see that in the turn up in goods prices and now sticky price inflation," he said. "In the long term, the implications are the yield curve steepens. The Fed tries to keep short rates low, and investors fight back with a little bit more inflation premium, a little more outright inflation compensation, and higher volatility and term premium." https://www.reuters.com/business/long-treasury-yields-stay-elevated-inflation-debt-pressures-blunt-fed-easing-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 13:13

NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase's exposure to bankrupt auto dealer Tricolor is "not our finest moment," the bank's CEO Jamie Dimon told reporters on a conference call on Tuesday. JPMorgan charged off $170 million in the third quarter related to the situation, and the bank is reviewing its controls, Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum said. Sign up here. The bankruptcies of automotive-related Tricolor and companies First Brands, along with potential losses at banks and investment funds, are raising new concerns about hidden risks in parts of the credit market — prompting investors to take a closer look at risky debt. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/jpmorgan-ceo-says-its-exposure-collapsed-auto-dealer-tricolor-not-our-finest-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 12:56

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor said on Tuesday that he saw an increasingly likely risk of a "bumpy landing" for Britain's economy with inflation falling too low, in part due to the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's trade tariffs. Taylor said in a speech at the King's College University that the rise in British inflation should fade in 2026 and Trump's tariffs were more likely to hurt growth than push up prices as exports unable to enter the United States sought other markets. Sign up here. In his speech about trade tariffs, Taylor said his "bumpy landing" scenario for the British economy featured inflation falling below the BoE's 2% target in late 2026 and the economy slipping into a weakened state for a sustained period. "Part of this scenario, in my mind, could end up resulting from some of the trade diversion pressures that I have described today: if we underestimate the forces of trade diversion washing up on our shores in the next year or two, our inflation forecast will miss the mark," he said. Taylor and one other member of the nine-strong Monetary Policy Committee voted unsuccessfully to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at last month's meeting. In August, Taylor initially called for a big reduction in Bank Rate to 3.75% before changing his vote to ensure a majority for a cut to 4%. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/bank-englands-taylor-says-he-fears-bumpy-landing-uk-economy-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 12:22

PARIS, Oct 14 (Reuters) - French luxury group LVMH (LVMH.PA) , opens new tab on Tuesday said it named Maria Grazia Chiuri, the former Dior women's designer, the new creative director of Italian fashion label Fendi with a first collection to be presented in February. Chiuri this May showed her last Dior runway show in Rome, her home town. Jonathan Anderson took over the creative leadership of the French house in June. Sign up here. Her move is the latest in a string of high-profile designer appointments, with new creative directors also appointed at brands including Gucci, Balenciaga and Chanel. The Italian, 61, will take over the charge from Silvia Venturini Fendi, a granddaughter of the house's founders. At Dior, Chiuri often added feminist messages to her fashion shows. https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/lvmh-names-maria-grazia-chiuri-chief-designer-fendi-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 12:20

Tariffs raise costs for energy companies, CEOs say TotalEnergies, Baker Hughes cite financial impacts from US trade policies Exxon says it focuses on long-term fundamentals, not political cycles LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The executives of two oil companies warned this week that tariffs resulting from the U.S. administration's trade policies were driving up costs across the energy production chain and affecting investment decisions. TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab CEO Patrick Pouyanne told the Energy Intelligence Forum in London on Tuesday that tariffs on steel were pushing up costs for liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects. Sign up here. In June, Trump an executive proclamation hiking tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 50%. Lorenzo Simonelli, chief executive of energy services company Baker Hughes (BKR.O) , opens new tab, told the same conference on Monday that tariffs would add between $100 million and $200 million to the company's costs this year, though probably closer to the lower end of that range. “It is an incremental pressure point, but it’s something that we have to manage through,” he said. However, Darren Woods, chief executive of U.S. major ExxonMobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab downplayed the impact of policies pursued by any single administration, saying the group's long-term investments were not affected by one political cycle. Instead, he flagged Europe's environmental regulations as a factor driving away investment. "The challenge in Europe is that they try to micromanage and instruct the industry on how to achieve (decarbonisation)," Woods told the conference on Monday. "Frankly, they don't have the expertise." https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/oil-executives-flag-increased-costs-trumps-tariffs-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 11:48

Oct 14 (Reuters) - Titan Mining (TI.TO) , opens new tab said on Tuesday it will begin production of graphite concentrate at its Empire State Mines in New York, days after China expanded export limits on rare earth minerals. The Canadian miner is targeting ramp-up to a 40,000-tonne-per-year commercial graphite facility, which the company said would be capable of supplying about half of current U.S. natural graphite demand. Sign up here. "China's decision to tighten graphite exports underscores the importance of having a secure domestic supply of natural graphite," said Titan CEO Rita Adiani. China already tightly controlled its exports of rare earths, but last week added five new elements, bringing the total that are subject to restrictions to 12. It also limited the export of dozens of pieces of equipment and material used to mine and refine rare earths, processes in which it is the world leader. In March, U.S. President Donald Trump invoked emergency powers to accelerate domestic production of critical minerals such as aluminum, cobalt, lithium, graphite, neodymium and dysprosium. Titan said the facility will produce natural flake graphite in micronized and high-purity forms sourced from the company's Kilbourne deposit. https://www.reuters.com/business/titan-mining-produce-graphite-concentrate-new-york-facility-2025-10-14/