2025-10-14 10:55

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The global oil market will tighten in the medium to longer term, a range of oil industry executives said in London this week, maintaining optimism despite a near-term glut driven by rising output. Production decline rates, which could accelerate as prices fall, will help to rebalance the oil market as longer-term demand is supported by rising consumption from emerging economies, the executives said. Sign up here. The global oil market surplus will reach 3.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, compared with a 1.9 million bpd average so far this year, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly oil report on Tuesday. Rising production from both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) and non-members has kept a ceiling on oil prices this year. Brent futures were trading around $62 a barrel on Tuesday morning, down more than $15 compared with the same day last year. MEDIUM TERM TIGHTNESS Oil production from producers outside of OPEC will start to decline if oil prices fall to $60 per barrel, TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab CEO Patrick Pouyanne said on Tuesday. "Fundamentally, the short term market is a little bearish ... but we are quite bullish on the medium-term," Pouyanne said at the Energy Intelligence forum in London, citing production decline rates and no peak in global oil demand. On Monday at the same conference, ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods warned that decline rates could hit 15% per year without investment in unconventional oil and gas fields, and said that in his view oversupply will be a "short-term issue." "We see resilient demand, and the pressing need for long-term investments in supply," Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser added on Monday. "The key strategic question for companies like mine and others is, where is the conventional oil going to come from to satisfy the demand in the face of plateauing or peaking U.S. unconventional supply, as demand continues to grow," ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance said. Lance added that oil prices could recover to $70-75 a barrel, as in the mid-cycle supply will have to be generated to meet demand. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-executives-see-market-rebalancing-surplus-medium-term-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 10:43

Oct 14 (Reuters) - Britain's financial regulator set out plans on Tuesday to encourage asset managers to "tokenise" their funds on blockchain, in a move aimed at attracting younger investors. Under the proposals being considered, UK asset managers would be able to create crypto tokens representing shares in their funds, using public blockchains like Ethereum. Until now, funds had only been able to use private blockchains. Sign up here. Tokenisation - the process of creating blockchain-based versions of financial assets - has seen a revival of interest this year, helped by rising crypto prices and U.S. President Donald Trump's support for the crypto industry. Proponents say it can improve efficiency and cut the costs of fund management. BRITAIN SEEKING A BIGGER ROLE IN CRYPTO "Tokenisation has the potential to drive fundamental changes in asset management, with benefits for the industry and consumers," Simon Walls, executive director of markets at Britain's Financial Conduct Authority, said in a statement launching a consultation on the plans. The move is the latest sign of Britain's push to promote digital assets. The country's finance ministry last month announced plans to co-operate with the U.S. on crypto. The FCA also sought feedback on whether to allow stablecoins - crypto assets that are pegged to a fiat currency - to be used as settlement for the funds. In a press briefing, Nike Trost, interim director buy-side at the FCA, acknowledged that the benefits could take a while to materialise, as firms take time to upgrade their technology. The watchdog said it was minded to act as technology was driving changes in consumer expectations around investing. Almost half (47%) of the users of trading apps are aged 18-34, the FCA said, and such apps typically sell low-cost investments in shares, or fractions of them, rather than funds. The regulator said the possibility of allowing regulated funds to invest in cryptocurrencies would be considered in a future review. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/uk-regulator-backs-tokenised-funds-attract-younger-investors-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 10:39

Oct 14 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. Wall Street's 'fear gauge' of implied stock market volatility touched its highest in almost four months on Tuesday as a fresh wave of AI excitement jostled with trade war tensions and the onset of the third quarter earnings season. The VIX earlier hit its highest since mid-June as U.S.-China trade exchanges turned sour again overnight following Monday's Broadcom-led stock rebound. Tuesday's packed diary includes Q3 updates from the big U.S. banks, a keynote speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the International Monetary Fund's World Economic Outlook. U.S. stocks snapped back on Monday, with chipmakers leading the charge as Broadcom soared 10% on news of an OpenAI partnership and Google announcing $15 billion of investments in datacenters in India. But weekend hopes of cooling U.S.-China trade tensions were undermined again as the two countries began charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to oil. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there was still a chance to avert 100% U.S. tariffs on November 1 and that a meeting of the two countries' leaders was still possible. U.S. stock futures relapsed about 1% before Tuesday's bell, however, and yields on Treasuries, which had not traded on Monday's Columbus Day holiday, plunged further. The 30-year bond yield plummeted to its lowest since the April trade shock even as the dollar firmed, with Bessent saying the ongoing government shutdown was hitting the economy and "getting serious". Overseas, Japan's Nikkei dived 2.5% after a long weekend, clocking its sharpest one-day drop since April as investors fretted over uncertainty around the country's next prime minister. In France, newly re-appointed Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu addresses parliament on Tuesday to spell out his budget priorities. U.S. crude oil prices slipped to their lowest since May, and gold hit a new record at $4,179 per ounce - but bitcoin continued its sharp retreat and is now down more than $10,000 from its October 6 peak. In today's column, I discuss whether gold's parabolic surge is becoming the bubble investors think they're hedging against. Today's Market Minute * Hamas freed the last living Israeli hostages from Gaza on Monday under a ceasefire deal and Israel sent home busloads of Palestinian detainees, as U.S. President Donald Trump declared the end of the two-year-long war that has upended the broader Middle East. * The United States and China on Tuesday will begin charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil, making the high seas a key front in the trade war between the world's two largest economies. * Google will invest $15 billion over the next five years to set up data centre capacity for an artificial intelligence hub in India's Andhra Pradesh, the company said on Tuesday, marking one of its biggest ever investments in the country. * The U.S. dollar just notched up its best week in two months, a move many would dismiss as a short-term bounce in a longer-term decline, especially with lower U.S. interest rates on the horizon. But, writes ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever, the bull case for the tarnished greenback is surprisingly persuasive. * The UK stock market has become one of the top contrarian trades , opens new tab after the recent Bank of America survey reported a record number of fund managers underweight the British market. There are plenty of reasons to think that UK equities could outperform their U.S. counterparts in 2026 and potentially for the next decade – and this optimism does not rest solely on Britain’s cheap valuations. Read more in Panmure Liberum investment strategist Joachim Klement's latest piece for ROI. Chart of the day The AI boom ignited by ChatGPT's launch in late 2022 has continued to fuel staggering capital outlays and data center expansion despite a brief crisis of confidence sparked by China's cheaper DeepSeek model and periodic market concerns over Trump's tariff policies. Citigroup last month raised its forecast for AI-related infrastructure spending by tech giants to surpass $2.8 trillion through 2029, from $2.3 trillion estimated earlier, citing aggressive early investments by hyperscalers and growing enterprise appetite. Today's events to watch (all times EDT) * U.S. NFIB small business survey for September (6:00 AM EDT); Canada August building permits * Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks (12:20 PM EDT) in Philadelphia, Fed Board Governor Christopher Waller speaks in Washington, Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks in Boston; European Central Bank policymakers François Villeroy de Galhau and Sharon Donnery speak in New York; Bank of England policymaker Alan Taylor speaks in London * The International Monetary Fund releases World Economic Outlook (9:00 AM EDT) as IMF-World Bank meetings get underway in Washington. Speakers at the IMF meeting include Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, Irish Central Bank Governor Gabriel Makhlouf * French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu addresses parliament to spell out his budget priorities (8:00 AM EDT) * U.S. corporate earnings: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, Johnson & Johnson, Domino's Pizza Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 10:18

Recent Dollar rebound driven by repositioning amid disrupted US data and rival currency issues Analysts expect dollar weakness due to US economic concerns and interest rate outlook International developments temporarily boost dollar, but long-term weakening trend remains NEW YORK, Oct 14 (Reuters) - A rebound in the dollar over the past month is unlikely to last given it was largely due to repositioning over temporary factors including the disruption of U.S. economic data due to the U.S. government shutdown and upheaval in the governments of rival currencies. The greenback has climbed about 3% against a basket of currencies (.DXY) , opens new tab since mid-September, recovering from more than three-year lows after falling nearly 11% earlier this year. Sign up here. Speculators' net short bets on the dollar fell to $9.86 billion from a two-year high of $20.96 billion during that period, CFTC data showed before the U.S. government shutdown disrupted releases. Options markets also show the turn in sentiment in favor of the dollar with one- and three-month EUR/USD risk reversals recently hitting their most euro bearish levels since mid-June. Still, analysts are broadly skeptical of the dollar's recovery. "In the three- to six-month view, I think the dollar is going to be falling because I think the U.S. economy is going to weaken and the interest rates are going to come down," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets. Much of the dollar's recent rebound can be attributed to investors covering bearish bets on the currency. "What's going on in markets is basically a positioning adjustment," said Jayati Bharadwaj, a global FX strategist at TD Securities. Indeed, some analysts said the dollar rally may be running out of steam. "We've definitely seen a very nice period of dollar strength," said Joel Kruger, market strategist at London-based LMAX Group, which operates multiple global institutional FX exchanges. Kruger sees risks for further dollar weakness in the near term. INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS BOOST DOLLAR The dollar sold off in the first half of the year on worries over fading U.S. exceptionalism, concerns about a hit to economic growth from President Donald Trump's protectionist trade stance, and the specter of a ballooning U.S. budget and international trade deficits. But given the interruption of U.S. economic releases and political crises outside the United States — in Japan and France — investor attention has swung away from the dollar's travails. The euro snapped a two-month winning streak to trade down about 1.3% for October, while the yen has slipped nearly 3% against the rising greenback . Chaos and uncertainty in France, the euro zone's second-largest economy, have caused the euro to weaken against the greenback, while political shifts in Japan have swayed investor expectations for the Bank of Japan's monetary and fiscal policy, piling pressure on the yen. But investor reaction to recent international developments may have gone too far, analysts said. "The surprising outcome of the LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) leadership election led to significant JPY weakness as investors increasingly position for fiscal expansion and a dovish BoJ," Morgan Stanley strategists said in a note on Friday. "We think such positioning is excessive," the strategists wrote. COUNTER-TREND RALLY An early October Reuters poll of FX strategists showed the dollar weakening against all major currencies over the next three, six and 12 months, against the backdrop of rising U.S. fiscal deficit and worries that the Federal Reserve's independence may come under threat. "The dollar will weaken through time, but there are always these counter trend rallies," Colin Graham, head of multi-asset strategies at Robeco in London, said. "So we're playing dollar from the short side, but we are actively managing how big that position is," Graham said. SHUTDOWN END AS A CATALYST? That said, should U.S. economic growth surprise to the upside and the Fed end up not meeting expectations for rate cuts in coming months, it may help the dollar extend its rally, analysts said. For now, many of the catalysts that drove the dollar's drop this year, including worries about U.S. growth and the outlook for monetary policy, remain in place even though recent developments may have put them on the back burner. "U.S. economic data after the U.S. government reopens could become the catalyst to change this weaker yen trend," Morgan Stanley strategists said, recommending investors stay short the dollar against the yen. With Fed Chair Jerome Powell in the final months of his current term and the Trump administration's ongoing efforts to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook from the central bank, questions about the Fed's independence and confidence in the dollar are also likely to gain importance in investors' minds. "Investors remain worried about Fed independence and the potential impact on USD. But for now they are focused on other issues," BofA Global Research analysts said in a note on Friday. Meanwhile, the long-awaited resumption of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle is likely to cheapen hedging of dollar exposure for foreign investors, piling more pressure on the buck. "I think that the dollar's big dollar super cycle has ended, and we're in the down part of it," Bannockburn Forex's Chandler said. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/dollar-gains-rivals-trouble-may-lack-staying-power-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 09:58

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Banks borrowed 6.344 billion pounds ($8.42 billion) from the Bank of England at a weekly indexed long-term repo for six-month funds on Tuesday, the most since March 2020, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The BoE has been seeking to increase usage of the facility as it shifts away from a system of excess reserves in Britain's banking system and unwinds much of the 875 billion pounds of quantitative easing gilt purchases it bought from 2009 to 2021. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bank-england-allots-most-6-month-repo-since-2020-2025-10-14/

2025-10-14 07:52

Oct 14 (Reuters) - Shares of Swedish gold trading platform Guldbrev Holding (GULD.ST) , opens new tab opened at 20.5 Swedish crowns ($2.15) per share on their market debut on the Nasdaq First North exchange on Tuesday, slightly above the 20 crowns they had been priced at during the heavily oversubscribed initial public offering (IPO). WHY IT'S IMPORTANT The price of gold reached $4,000 an ounce for the first time ever earlier in October, with investors seeking cover amid geopolitical uncertainty. This has boosted shares of gold miners and other companies trading in the precious metal. Sign up here. Following the IPO, announced in September amid soaring gold prices, Guldbrev plans to distribute 60-80% of its annual net profits to shareholders. CONTEXT Guldbrev is a digital platform mainly active in the Nordic countries that focuses on buying gold jewellery and items from consumers, and then recycling and reselling it. Customers can order an envelope from Guldbrev online, place their items in it and ship it to the company, its website said. Guldbrev then evaluates the gold and pays the customer back for it through a bank transfer or instant payment. The company, which is also present in Germany and the Netherlands, sees expansion into continental Europe as the next step in its strategy to broaden its geographical revenue base and benefit from the scalability of its digital platform. It managed to more than double its revenue between 2022 and 2024, and has said it does not see any major investment needs in its core business. BY THE NUMBERS Guldbrev's IPO was subscribed for about 350 million Swedish crowns ($37 million), corresponding to about 208% of the offering. The high subscription rate resulted in Guldbrev exercising an up-size option, where existing shareholders sold nearly 2.1 million additional shares, bringing the oversubscription rate to 167%. ($1 = 9.5240 Swedish crowns) https://www.reuters.com/business/gold-trading-platform-guldbrev-lists-stockholm-amid-record-high-gold-prices-2025-10-14/