2025-10-13 12:03
LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Copper prices touched $11,000 per metric ton on October 9, a milestone seen on only two other trading days in the history of the London Metal Exchange - and one that has analysts questioning whether the metal can scale a new peak. Used in power and construction, copper had moved within touching distance of its all-time high of $11,104.50, set in May 2024, before losing ground on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs on China. Sign up here. Benchmark copper was trading at $10,644 a ton as of 1047 GMT on Monday. The metal has been propelled higher in 2025 by a weak dollar and, in recent months, a series of mining mishaps, but there is still a question mark over demand. "For that rally to gain further momentum, we will also need to see strong demand growth, particularly from China," said ING analyst Ewa Manthey, adding that the bank retains a cautious outlook on the metal. "However, if China ramps up metals-intensive stimulus, it would boost demand and prices further." Key copper mines, including Grasberg in Indonesia, have seen disruption this year. Even so, opinions differ on whether there is a genuine shortage of the metal or prices are being bid up by speculators. Following the force majeure at Grasberg, the International Copper Study Group sees a 150,000 ton deficit in 2026, although it still expects a 178,000 ton surplus this year. Adjusting its annual loss allowance for lower Grasberg output, BNP Paribas expects a "balanced" copper market next year. "No one's struggling to get copper," said David Wilson, senior commodities strategist at the bank. "Funds can push an industrial metal up, but then the industrial consumers will just go, 'All right, we're not buying.'" Copper stocks on the LME, Shanghai Futures Exchange and Comex total around 556,000 tons. But almost half are in the Comex system , where inventory built up prior to the expected imposition of U.S. tariffs on copper has not been drawn down, pointing to a surplus in the United States. ShFE copper stocks are at just under 110,000 tons, the highest since April 25 but down almost 60% from February. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/coppers-rally-needs-china-impetus-reach-record-2025-10-13/
2025-10-13 12:01
Oct 31 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley said on Friday that gold prices had potential to climb to $4,500 per ounce by mid-2026, citing strong physical demand by exchange-traded funds and central banks as the economic outlook remains uncertain. "Recent price action took gold well into 'overbought' territory on an RSI (Relative Strength Index) basis, but the recent correction has taken it to a healthier level, likely cleaning up positioning," Morgan Stanley said in a note. Sign up here. The bank expects continued buying of gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as interest rates decline, alongside steady purchases by central banks, albeit at a slower pace and stabilization in jewelry demand. However, Morgan Stanley cautioned that downside risks remain, including potential price volatility that could prompt investors to shift toward other asset classes or decisions by central banks to reduce gold reserves. Gold prices have surged over 54% year-to-date, hitting multiple record highs in 2025, including the latest peak of $4,381.21 per ounce on October 20, but have retreated more than 8% since then. The rally in gold this year has been fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, expectations of rate cuts, central bank purchases, and strong gold-backed ETF inflows. Following is a list of analysts' latest forecasts for 2025 and 2026 gold prices (in $ per ounce): *end-of-period forecasts https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bofa-hikes-gold-price-forecast-5000oz-2026-2025-10-13/
2025-10-13 12:01
LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - OPEC made no changes on Monday to its relatively high global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next, and implied the oil market will see a much smaller supply deficit in 2026 as the wider OPEC+ group pushes ahead with output increases. OPEC+ is adding more crude to the market after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies decided to unwind some output cuts more rapidly than earlier scheduled. The extra supply has raised concern of a surplus and weighed on oil prices this year. Sign up here. In a monthly report on Monday, OPEC said the world economy was maintaining a solid growth trend. While demand is seen as steady, OPEC said that OPEC+ in September raised crude output by 630,000 barrels per day to 43.05 million bpd, reflecting its earlier decisions to increase output quotas. Expected demand for OPEC+ crude at an average 43.1 million bpd implies that the world market will see a deficit of 50,000 bpd if the wider group keeps pumping at September's rate, according to a Reuters calculation based on the report. Last month's report implied a deficit of 700,000 bpd in 2026 if OPEC+ kept pumping at August's rate. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-holds-oil-demand-outlook-points-smaller-2026-supply-deficit-2025-10-13/
2025-10-13 11:50
NEW DELHI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - India's power planning authority has drawn up a 6.4 trillion rupees ($77 billion) transmission plan to move more than 76 gigawatts of hydroelectric capacity from the Brahmaputra basin by 2047 to meet rising electricity demand, the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) said on Monday. In a report released on Monday, the CEA said the plan covers 208 large hydro projects across 12 sub‑basins in the northeastern states, with 64.9 GW of potential capacity and an additional 11.1 GW from pumped‑storage plants. Sign up here. The Brahmaputra River, which rises in Tibet, China, and flows through India and Bangladesh, holds significant hydro potential in its Indian stretch, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh on the China border. The basin's transboundary nature and proximity to China make water management and infrastructure planning a strategic concern, amid India's fears that a Chinese dam on the Yarlung Zangbo, the river's upper course before it enters India, could cut dry‑season flows on the Indian side by up to 85%. The Brahmaputra basin spans parts of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Sikkim, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Manipur, Nagaland and West Bengal, and holds more than 80% of India's untapped hydro potential, the report said, with Arunachal Pradesh alone accounting for 52.2 GW. Phase one of the plan, running to 2035, will require 1.91 trillion rupees, while phase two will cost 4.52 trillion rupees, according to the CEA. The CEA's plan also includes projects allocated to central public sector utilities such as NHPC (NHPC.NS) , opens new tab , NEEPCO, and SJVN (SJVN.NS) , opens new tab, with some projects already in the pipeline. India aims to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels by having 500 GW of non-fossil power generation capacity by 2030 and becoming net zero by 2070. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/india-unveils-77-billion-hydro-plan-china-builds-upstream-dam-2025-10-13/
2025-10-13 11:49
Oct 13 (Reuters) - Algeria's state-owned energy company Sonatrach said on Monday it signed a contract worth around $5.4 billion with Saudi Arabia's Midad Energy for oil and gas exploration and development in Algeria's Illizi Basin. The production-sharing contract spans 30 years with an option to extend for an additional 10 years and includes a seven-year exploration period. Sign up here. Midad Energy North Africa will fully fund the investment, including $288 million allocated to exploration. The Illizi South perimeter lies about 100 km (62 miles) south of the Algerian town of In Amenas, near the Libyan border. The deal was first announced by Ennahar TV. Overall production by the end of the contractual period is estimated to reach around 993 million barrels of oil equivalent, including 125 billion cubic meters of natural gas, Saudi state news agency SPA reported later on Monday. Sonatrach is Algeria's largest oil and gas producer and has been actively seeking foreign partnerships to boost output and modernize infrastructure. The company has previously signed deals with international partners, including a recent $850 million contract with China's Sinopec for hydrocarbon development and exploration. Earlier this month, Algeria's energy minister said the country plans to invest $60 billion in its energy sector over the next five years, with a focus on upstream exploration and production. The North African nation, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, aims to strengthen its role as a key supplier of energy to international markets while meeting domestic demand and making a transition to more sustainable sources. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/algeria-signs-54-billion-oil-gas-deal-with-saudi-firm-midad-energy-2025-10-13/
2025-10-13 11:46
SINGAPORE, Oct 13 (Reuters) - (This Oct 13 story has been corrected to remove reference to Sublime China Information research note) The latest U.S. sanctions on a major Chinese crude oil terminal have forced refining group Sinopec to divert a supertanker and ask some plants to cut crude processing rates, according to ship tracking data and Chinese consultancies. Sign up here. A supertanker carrying oil to the Chinese port of Rizhao in Shandong province changed its destination over the weekend after the U.S. imposed sanctions on an import terminal at the port on Friday, LSEG data showed. Consultancy, JLC, estimated on Saturday that Sinopec's October runs may drop 3.36% from earlier plans to about 5.16 million barrels per day. Sinopec did not immediately respond to requests for comment. LSEG data showed the supertanker New Vista, chartered by Sinopec's trading arm Unipec and originally scheduled to discharge at Rizhao on Sunday, had switched its destination to the ports of Ningbo and Zhoushan for arrival on October 15. The New Vista can carry 2 million barrels of crude and is currently carrying Abu Dhabi's Upper Zakum crude grade. The Rizhao Shihua Crude Oil Terminal, half-owned by a Sinopec logistics unit, was among the entities listed by the U.S. Treasury in a round of sanctions that also includes ships transporting Iranian crude oil and liquefied petroleum gas. The terminal, in the city of Lanshan in Shandong province, a major Chinese oil refining hub, was sanctioned for receiving Iranian oil on board sanctioned vessels, the U.S. said. One-fifth of Sinopec's crude oil imports pass through the Rizhao terminal, according to industry executives and analysts. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/unipec-diverts-supertanker-shandong-port-after-us-sanctions-2025-10-13/
