2025-10-13 11:40
Retail inflation lowest since June 2017 Food prices drop 2.28% Y/Y in September vs 0.64% decline in August Softer food prices have prompted the RBI to trim inflation forecast for current year Economists expect central bank to cut interest rates by 25 bps in December NEW DELHI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - India's annual retail inflation (INCPIY=ECI) , opens new tab slowed to an eight-year low of 1.54% in September, government data showed on Monday, as food prices eased, leaving room for the central bank to cut rates one more time when it meets in December. Retail inflation was below a Reuters poll of 1.7% and the lowest since June 2017, when it stood at 1.46%. Sign up here. It was at 2.07% in August. The figure has also dropped below the Reserve Bank of India's 2%-6% tolerance band for a second time in three months. It had eased below 2% in July. The RBI is mandated to not let inflation overshoot its tolerance range of 2%-6% for more than three quarters in a row. The central bank is expected to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points in its December review, said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, adding that the timing of rate cuts is contingent on the previous rate cuts passing through and the growth implications of the tax cuts and U.S. tariffs. The RBI has reduced interest rates by 100 basis points so far this year. It left the policy rate unchanged at 5.5% at its October monetary policy review, but signalled scope for a rate cut in December. The decline in inflation in September is mainly attributed to a favourable base effect and to a decline in the inflation of vegetables, oil and fats, fruits, pulses, cereal, and eggs, the government said in its statement. Food prices fell 2.28% year-on-year in September versus a revised 0.64% drop in August. Vegetable prices declined 21.38% after a 15.92% fall in the previous month. Softer food prices prompted the RBI this month to trim its inflation forecast for the current financial year to 2.6% from 3.1%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy and is an indicator of demand in the economy, was at 4.5% in September compared with 4.1% in August, according to two economists. Higher gold prices and housing costs pushed up core inflation, economists said. A cut in consumer taxes, which took effect from September 22, will bring down core inflation starting October, said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. The U.S. has imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, but Prime Minister Narendra Modi's tax cuts on everything from soaps to cars are expected to offset the impact on growth and ease inflation during the September–December festival season. The central bank this month raised its economic growth forecast to 6.8% from 6.5%, putting it at the upper end of the government's 6.3%–6.8% estimate. At this pace, India would continue to grow at the fastest pace among major economies. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-retail-inflation-slows-154-september-2025-10-13/
2025-10-13 11:17
FTSE 100 up 0.7%, FTSE 250 UP 1.15% Miners drive gains Big Yellow soars as Blackstone considers buyout Oct 13 (Reuters) - London shares made a modest recovery on Monday, led by miners, as U.S. President Donald Trump softened his rhetoric on trade tensions with China, worries about which had sparked a sharp selloff on Friday. The blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) , opens new tab was up 0.07% as of 1012 GMT, having dropped 0.9% in the previous session after Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese imports, reigniting fears of a trade war between the world's two largest economies. Sign up here. The mid-cap focused FTSE 250 (.FTMC) , opens new tab gained 1.15%. Over the weekend, Trump struck a more conciliatory tone, posting that "it will all be fine" and that the U.S. had no intention to "hurt" China. In the market, precious metal miners (.FTNMX551030) , opens new tab led gains with 7% rise as gold prices hit another record high. Gold miners Fresnillo (FRES.L) , opens new tab and Endeavour (EDV.L) , opens new tab gained the most in the FTSE 100 with 7.6% and 6.4% rise, respectively. In the latest round of mergers and acquisitions, U.S. private equity giant Blackstone (BX.N) , opens new tab said it was in the early stages of considering a cash offer for Big Yellow Group (BYG.L) , opens new tab, lifting the self-storage firm's shares 18.3%. Rival Safestore (SAFE.L) , opens new tab also jumped 11.2% on the news. Tritax Big Box (BBOXT.L) , opens new tab gained nearly 3% after Blackstone agreed to buy a 9% stake in the UK real estate investment trust. Tritax agreed to buy Blackstone's UK logistics assets for 1.04 billion pounds ($1.39 billion). The broader real estate sector (.FTUB3510) , opens new tab advanced 2.5%. An index of industrial metal miners (.FTNMX551020) , opens new tab rose 2.2%, tracking gains in copper prices. Mining heavyweights Anglo American (AAL.L) , opens new tab, Glencore (GLEN.L) , opens new tab and Rio Tinto (RIO.L) , opens new tab rose between 1.5% and 2.8%, helping lift the blue chip index. Among other individual stocks, Oxford Instruments (OXIG.L) , opens new tab shed 11.4% as the company expects H1 revenue to drop and said the shortfall is unlikely to be recovered. Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L) , opens new tab gained 1% after a motor finance charge came in lower than anticipated. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-stocks-steady-trump-eases-tone-china-tariff-gold-miners-shine-2025-10-13/
2025-10-13 11:14
India trade delegation to visit Washington later this week Both sides aim to sign first tranche of trade deal next month India to boost U.S energy purchases to address concerns NEW DELHI, Oct 13 (Reuters) - India and the United States are set to hold trade talks this week, with New Delhi pledging to import U.S. energy and gas as it aims to address Washington's concerns over its Russian oil purchases, an official said. Talks were suspended briefly in August after the Trump administration announced tariff hikes of up to 50% on Indian goods, accusing India of financing Russia's war in Ukraine by continuing to buy Moscow's oil despite western sanctions. Sign up here. However, discussions resumed in September after U.S. President Donald Trump struck a conciliatory tone in public remarks and spoke to Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the phone, raising hopes for a breakthrough. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, due to the sensitivity of the issue, said India was looking to increase purchases of energy and gas from the U.S. The move follows U.S. ambassador-designate Sergio Gor's meetings over the weekend with Modi and later with Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal on strengthening bilateral trade and investment. "During my visit to India, I met with Commerce Secretary Agrawal and discussed US-India economic ties, including increased investment in the United States," Gor said on 'X' on Sunday. Indian officials held "constructive" talks with U.S. counterparts in Washington last month, the government said, adding that both sides agreed to push for an early conclusion of a mutually beneficial trade deal. The U.S. tariff hikes have hurt Indian exports of textiles, leather goods, gems & jewellery, and food products, prompting the government to diversify markets and offer incentives to exporters. India's exports to the United States fell to $6.86 billion in August from $8.01 billion in July, trade ministry data showed, with exporters reporting further declines in September. Negotiations began in February 2025, targeting a deal to double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. The two sides have held five rounds of trade talks, with the sixth - postponed in August - now expected to lead to the first phase of the deal next month, as agreed by Trump and Modi. India is seeking greater participation from private players, including U.S. firms, in its renewable and nuclear energy sectors. "Investments coming into our renewable energy sectors are an important area of our relationship (with the U.S.)," the official said, noting that New Delhi was open to buying more Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from the United States. When asked about the Trump administration's calls for greater Indian investment in the U.S., the source said New Delhi was not opposed and viewed overseas investments by Indian firms positively, similar to China’s approach. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-us-hold-trade-talks-this-week-washington-source-says-2025-10-13/
2025-10-13 11:13
IMO to meet Oct 14-17 to decide on formal adoption of carbon levy US threatens retaliation against countries backing measure Preliminary deal reached in April after US pulled out of talks Levy could collect $11 billion-12 billion in 2028-2030 LONDON, Oct 13 (Reuters) - The International Maritime Organization will meet this week to formally decide whether to impose a carbon emissions price on global shipping, a move supported by an EU-led bloc including Britain, China and Japan but strongly opposed by the U.S. The IMO struck a preliminary deal to charge the global shipping industry for emissions in April after the U.S. pulled out of associated talks, prompting Washington to threaten "reciprocal measures" against any fees charged on U.S. ships. Sign up here. The April deal is now tabled for adoption at a meeting of the IMO's environmental committee scheduled for October 14-17, which is expected to include the U.S. Washington has continued its efforts to derail the measure since April, threatening port fees and visa restrictions against countries that support it. "The United States will be moving to levy these remedies against nations that sponsor this European-led neocolonial export of global climate regulations," the U.S. State Department said in a statement on October 11. European Union states, meanwhile, have called for the IMO measure to be adopted, the European Commission said in an October 12 statement. The IMO's proposed marine fuel emissions standard would impose a fee on ships bigger than 5,000 tons that breach a threshold of emissions, and reward vessels burning cleaner fuels. Ships will either buy remedial units or pay a penalty if they emit more than the threshold. Ships emitting less than a separate threshold will receive surplus units. Revenues from the measure would be collected by an IMO Net-Zero Fund to be created by the IMO Secretariat, according to the draft rules. Details of revenue distribution have yet to be decided. According to research from University College London, the IMO fuel standard would generate $11 billion-12 billion per year between 2028-2030, as most ships would likely pay the penalty in the early years of implementation. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/un-shipping-emissions-deal-pit-us-against-eu-led-bloc-2025-10-13/
2025-10-13 11:03
LONDON/PARIS, Oct 13 (Reuters) - Fuel suppliers are using European Union green jet fuel mandates to inflate costs for airlines through surcharges, nearly doubling prices compared with market rates, the head of airlines body IATA said in an interview, calling for policy reform. The EU began requiring airlines to use more sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) this year, with a 2% minimum blending mandate set to rise to 6% by 2030. Sign up here. While fuel suppliers are responsible for providing fuel with the progressively stronger blends of SAF at airports, airlines are obliged to purchase the available fuel for their operations. Willie Walsh, director general of the International Air Transport Association, told Reuters that oil suppliers selling SAF were able to "extract additional profit from airlines by charging these compliance surcharges," adding that this should prompt European regulators to eliminate the mandates. "They have, in effect, facilitated price gouging by fuel suppliers in the name of the environment, and that's completely unacceptable," Walsh said. Walsh did not specify which airlines had been impacted or which fuel suppliers were involved in price hikes. Sustainable aviation fuel costs on average three to five times more than regular jet fuel. Industry association FuelsEurope said there had been a "significant and consistent decline of average SAF prices," citing third-party pricing data from Argus Media. Energy companies have said they are not seeing enough demand for SAF to justify ramping up production, which some executives say is weighing on prices rather than driving them up. Several have scaled back SAF refinery projects in recent years. Walsh was speaking in an interview on a separate report by IATA setting out $11 billion in extra costs in 2025 caused by congestion in other parts of the airline supply chain. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/airlines-face-price-gouging-by-green-jet-fuel-sellers-iata-says-2025-10-13/
2025-10-13 10:42
Oct 13 - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. The stories driving markets appear to be moving in loops faster than investors can make significant adjustments, with Friday's dramatic China trade threats seemingly reversed by Sunday , opens new tab and the French Prime Minister , opens new tab who resigned last Monday now reappointed and forming another cabinet. Wall Street plummeted , opens new tab almost 3% and gold , opens new tab surged again on Friday after President Donald Trump lambasted China's latest rare earth export curbs and vowed to slap 100% tariffs , opens new tabon Beijing, sending the S&P 500 to its worst weekly loss since May. However, futures regained about half of that daily percentage loss before Monday's bell after Trump on Sunday appeared to row back on the move saying, "Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it." Trade Representative Jamison Greer said tensions rose after Washington reached out to China for a phone call following last week's announcement of expanded rare earths export curbs, only for Beijing to defer , opens new tab. What's not clear is what the latest spat means for rolling over the existing bilateral trade deal , opens new tab on November 10 or whether an expected Trump-Xi summit , opens new tab will now take place. Meantime, China said export growth bounced back more than forecast in September while it rekindled lost U.S. trade elsewhere. Exports to the U.S. fell by 27% year-on-year but shipments bound for the European Union, Southeast Asia and Africa grew by 14%, 16% and 56% respectively. The full fallout from the weekend's whiplash will be difficult to parse with the U.S. government still in shutdown, the Columbus Day holiday closing the Treasury market and stock markets bracing for the onset of the U.S. corporate earnings season from tomorrow. Two and 10-year Treasury yields plunged to their lowest in almost a month on Friday's jolt and the dollar recoiled - but the latter has regained some ground on Monday. With the IMF/World Bank meetings taking place in Washington this week and a closely watched appearance from Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell due on Tuesday, there was continued warnings about overextended market valuations and the risks of a sharp correction. "Valuations could now be at odds with the uncertain economic and geopolitical outlook, leaving markets susceptible to a disorderly adjustment," Financial Stability Board Chair Andrew Bailey told G20 ministers in a letter. In today's column, I discuss how "juiced-out" bonds may be pushing money elsewhere. Today's Market Minute Chart of the day Trade Representative Jamison Greer said on Sunday that the U.S. reached out to China for a phone call following an announcement that it was expanding its rare earths export controls but Beijing deferred, while China accused the U.S. of what it called "double standards." China's choke on rare earths and magnets, where its near-monopoly position gives it significant leverage in the trade war, could paralyse global supply chains in industries from autos to green energy and aircraft. Today's events to watch * World financial leaders gather for the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings, speakers on Monday include European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde * Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Anna Paulson speaks; Bank of England policymakers Catherine Mann and Megan Greene speak * US corporate earnings: Fastenal Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-10-13/
