2025-03-06 14:25

So-called Trump put fading for stocks, Trump focused on bonds No mention of stocks in first joint Congress address Investors see risks in tariffs as consumer confidence weakens Some remain hopeful tariffs are a negotiating tool NEW YORK, March 6 (Reuters) - Investors are recalibrating how to play U.S. President Donald Trump's whipsawing policy changes, weighing that a so-called "Trump put" supporting stock market prices may be fading and that his administration is more keenly focused on the debt markets. Investors had bet strongly that Trump's agenda to lower taxes and usher in deregulation would support risk assets in a similar way to his first term when he frequently touted the stock market's performance. The so-called "Trump put," which refers to options, assumes that he will do whatever possible to keep the stock market happy. However, since returning to the White House on January 20, Trump's rapid-fire tariff policies have rattled risk markets, dented consumer and business confidence, and raised fears that his second term may not be as market-friendly as expected. Indeed, while stock investors struggle, the bond market has emerged as a key focus for the administration. "Trump has been a long-time advocate for using the stock market as a metric for the health of the economy, so this is a fairly drastic shift," said Ben Harris, vice president and director of economic studies at Brookings, who recently served as chief economist at the U.S. Treasury Department. In Trump's address on Tuesday to Congress, he pointed to the country's drop in Treasury yields but made no mention of stocks as he talked about his first six weeks back in office. "Today, interest rates took a beautiful drop - big, beautiful drop - it's about time," Trump said on Tuesday. "And in the near future, I want to do what has not been done in 24 years: balance the federal budget - we're going to balance it." That contrasted with 2017 when Trump addressed Congress and boasted that the stock market had gained almost $3 trillion since his election. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has meanwhile pledged to lower the U.S. Treasury 10-year yield, which influences borrowing costs for both the government and consumers. Moreover, the administration's mix of revenue-generating tariffs and aggressive spending cuts through Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency suggests a keen awareness of the risks posed by mounting government debt, which, if unchecked, could trigger a bond market rout. "In the first term, we all said Trump was very SPX sensitive, and that was invariably the truth," said Dawn Fitzpatrick, CEO and chief investment officer at Soros Fund Management, referring to the S&P 500 index (.SPX) , opens new tab. Bessent and the administration have a different level of pain tolerance when it comes to the stock market, Fitzpatrick said at a Bloomberg investment conference in New York on Tuesday. "They're more sensitive to a broader set of asset classes, and I think that might mean that ultimately they have more levers to pull when and where they need it," she said. "What you can’t control is consumer confidence and corporate confidence and I think that is what is falling off a cliff right now." The S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab has tumbled more than 3% since Trump's inauguration, compared to a 1.5% decline in an MSCI index tracking global stocks. The 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield, which moves inversely to prices, has fallen about 40 basis points, a sign investors are seeking safety. On Tuesday, stocks had dropped after Trump imposed new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada while doubling duties on Chinese goods to 20%. They pared losses on Wednesday as trade tensions eased, with the White House saying Trump would exempt automakers from his tariffs on Canada and Mexico for one month. Trump has warned tariffs may bring short-term pain but will ultimately revive manufacturing and spur growth. Investors, however, worry that with weakening consumer confidence they could put excessive pressure on stocks and strain the economy. "As an administration, you're kind of playing with fire here," said George Cipolloni, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management. "You don't want to plunge the economy into a recession just to get the 10-year yield down." Asked how President Trump factors in stock market concerns when it comes to tariffs, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday Trump supported tariffs as a key tool to raise revenue, reduce debt, and spur domestic job growth. She said Trump’s first term saw a booming stock market, and he expects the same again, but that a broader economic approach that includes tax cuts, tariffs, deregulation, and lower energy costs will benefit both Wall Street and Main Street. ROOM FOR TAX CUTS Other investors echoed those concerns, especially after recent disappointing U.S. economic reports on consumer confidence, business activity, and retail sales. "Declining consumer confidence and uncertainty in the market is not very positive, and that's when something unexpected happens in the market," said Stephen Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton Institute. The stock market is still important for Trump, but he is "trying to get there through the Treasury (market)", he added. Efforts to trim the budget could be aimed at creating room for tax cuts, a key Trump policy, which implies possible benefits down the road, said Tim Murray, capital markets strategist at T. Rowe Price. "When you want to get rates down, it's harder for that to coincide necessarily with the stock market going up." Despite sharp declines, U.S. stocks remain around the levels at Trump's November election victory, when markets were rising on expectations of deregulation and pro-growth policies. While tariffs have sparked fears of prolonged trade wars, many question how lasting they will be. Some see them as a bargaining tool for better trade terms. "My hunch is Trump ... is not going to want to shock the market," said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/wealth/investors-question-trump-put-tariffs-rattle-stock-markets-2025-03-06/

2025-03-06 12:45

LAGOS, March 6 (Reuters) - Nigeria's electricity output has surged by 30% this week to a peak near 6,000 megawatts after the completion of part of an ongoing overhaul of the country's generation infrastructure. Despite having the infrastructure to generate 13,000 MW of electricity, only a third of that has typically reached consumers through an aging grid that covers roughly half the nation, forcing businesses and households to rely on costly generators. Sule Abdulaziz, head of the Transmission Company of Nigeria, said it had commissioned 66 new power transformers and built new substations and transmission lines. "We increased capacity of existing substations and built new ones," he said. A 2019 agreement with Siemens (SIEGn.DE) , opens new tab to rehabilitate transmission lines and power distribution substations, funded by German banks, aimed to achieve 7,000 MW of reliable power by 2021 and 11,000 MW by 2023. However, it has faced regulatory, logistical and financing challenges. Abdulaziz said the Federal Executive Council had given approval for the Siemens project to move ahead with the reinforcement of seven existing transmission substations. In a pilot phase, six projects added an additional 335 MW of capacity and when the next phase is completed, 15 brownfield power substations will have been rehabilitated and 22 greenfield substations built up. Grid improvements are also being supported by government funding and multilateral organisations like the World Bank and African Development Bank. The government secured $1.1 billion from the AfDB in January for the power sector and has announced a separate $192 million, five-year plan to boost transmission capacity. Electricity generation peaked at a record high 5,801.84 MW on Tuesday and stood at 5,590 MW on Thursday. The government is optimistic that it can surpass 10,000 MW by the end of next year. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/nigerias-power-generation-rises-30-grid-overhaul-progresses-2025-03-06/

2025-03-06 12:32

Canadian oil faces 10% tariff, less than for other imports Canada supplies 50% of US crude imports Canadian crude discount widens LONDON, March 6 - When U.S. President Donald Trump announced tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports this week, he gave Canadian energy a modest break, showing "Tariff Man" will engage in realpolitik when it comes to oil and gas. The Republican president said on Monday that all imports of Canadian and Mexican goods would be subject to a 25% tariff, except Canadian energy, which will only be charged a 10% duty. The lower tariff on Canadian oil and gas reflects the two countries' energy interdependence. Canada, the world’s fourth largest crude producer, relies on the United States as the market for 90% of its exports. It also provides half of U.S. crude imports, supplying 4 million barrels per day in 2024, around one-fifth of consumption in the world’s biggest oil consumer. Most Canadian crude is shipped via pipelines from the extensive oil sands in Canada's western province of Alberta to land-locked refiners in the U.S. Midwest. These U.S. refiners rely on Canadian oil for 70% of their supplies and are configured to process the specific grade of feedstock, so they cannot easily replace Canadian crude. RAPID ADJUSTMENT Canadian oil producers by contrast have adjusted quickly to the Trump changes by lowering the price of Canadian crude sold into the United States to try to keep their buyers. The discount of Western Canada Select (WCS) heavy crude to the North American benchmark West Texas Intermediate futures (WTI) has widened over the last week by around $2.50 to $14.25 a barrel. At the same time, the premium of the Mars sour crude, a Gulf of Mexico alternative to Canadian and Mexico grades, has more than doubled since February 25 to $2.35 a barrel. Refiners have said gasoline prices are expected to rise in some U.S. regions, particularly in the Midwest, if the tariffs are maintained. Canada meanwhile has the option of bypassing the United States, mainly through the 890,000 barrels per day Trans Mountain pipeline system, which was expanded last year and runs from Alberta to the British Columbia coast. From there, oil can be loaded onto tankers to be shipped overseas. But the capacity for seaborne exports is limited and so far, the United States has been the main destination for exports from the port of Vancouver. Exports to the southern neighbour from the port are set to double in March from February to 309,000 bpd, according to data from analytics firm Kpler, a sign that traders booked extra volumes in anticipation of the tariffs that Trump had threatened weeks earlier. The impact on the energy market will largely depend on how long the tariffs remain in place. If they are protracted, Canadian producers could be forced to curtail output. But in the short run, 10% tariffs are unlikely to lead to significant disruption, as producers, refiners and consumers will likely weather any higher costs. It is an open question, however, whether Trump can stomach the potential political fallout if sustained tariffs push up energy prices. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. Want to receive my column in your inbox every Thursday, along with additional energy insights and trending stories? Sign up for my Power Up newsletter here. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trumps-canada-oil-tariff-speaks-us-vulnerability-2025-03-06/

2025-03-06 12:30

QUITO, March 6 (Reuters) - Roberto Concha has been named as new acting head of Ecuador's state oil company Petroecuador, the company said, the latest in a series of leadership changes at Petroecuador. Concha, a lawyer, has 15 years of experience in the public sector, Petroecuador said in a statement posted on social media late on Wednesday, and took up his post last week. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/roberto-concha-is-new-acting-head-petroecuador-company-says-2025-03-06/

2025-03-06 12:25

MOSCOW/BEIRUT, March 6 (Reuters) - Russia shipped a diesel cargo to Syria onboard a tanker under U.S. sanctions, the first known such direct supply to the Middle Eastern country in more than a decade, LSEG data showed. The final destination of the cargo is unclear. Russia has two main military installations in Syria: an air base in Hmeimim and a naval base in Tartous, integral to Russia's military reach in the Middle East and Africa. Russia's control over the bases is under threat following the sudden fall of Bashar al-Assad last year. Moscow has said it wanted to keep its hold over them. According to LSEG data, the Barbados-flagged vessel Prosperity (previously known as Gabon-flagged NS Pride) was loaded with about 37,000 metric tons of ultra-low sulphur diesel at the Russian Baltic port of Primorsk on February 8. The tanker, managed by the Dubai-based Fornax Ship Management, is anchored near the Syrian port of Banias, LSEG shipping data shows. Fornax itself is also under the U.S. sanctions. The company was not immediately available for comment. U.S. sanctions on Russia since the start of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine have included measures aimed at limiting revenues from the country's huge oil and gas industry and weakening its ability to fund the military efforts. The United States on January 10 added the Prosperity to the list of sanctioned vessels, which includes some 180 tankers, involved in the export of Russian oil products following its war in Ukraine. The EU and the UK followed suit on February 24. Violations of the U.S. sanctions programs may result in civil and, in some cases, criminal penalties. In one such case, U.S. Department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced , opens new tab last year a settlement of $7.45 million with the State Street Bank for "apparent violations" of the Russia and Ukraine-related sanctions. At the same time, the U.S. issued a six-month waiver to its Syria sanctions, focused on the energy sector and financial transfers to Syrian governing authorities. Syrian oil ministry officials did not immediately respond to text messages seeking comment. Russia's energy ministry declined to comment. This is the first direct diesel shipment from Russia to Syria since at least 2013, according to LSEG data. Syria also issued an import tender for 20,000 tons of LPG and was seeking to import oil as no crude shipments have arrived from Iran, its key supplier, since November, according to data from shipping analytics firm Kpler. Syria has two oil refineries, located in Homs and Banias, which ceased operating after Assad's fall. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-ships-diesel-syria-tanker-under-us-sanctions-data-shows-2025-03-06/

2025-03-06 12:18

PRETORIA, March 6 (Reuters) - The world must carry on pursuing the greenhouse gas emissions reductions outlined in the Paris Agreement, despite the United States' withdrawal, Britain's climate envoy said on Thursday, adding that the UK was moving ahead with its targets. Last month U.S. President Donald Trump , opens new tab withdrew the world's second biggest emitter from the agreement that aims to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit). "Around the world people are noting that the U.S. has pulled out of Paris, but we've got to carry on," Rachel Kyte told Reuters in an interview on a visit to South Africa's capital Pretoria. "The science hasn't changed, no other country has changed its position ... the direction of travel is the same." U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright on Monday called pledges to achieve net zero carbon emissions a "sinister goal," singling out Britain for its clean energy targets. "(Britain's) energy security ... food security, and the well being of the British people is entirely linked to the (world's) ability ... to manage this climate crisis," Kyte said. "So it's regrettable that the United States is out ... but we're moving ahead," she said. Britain's decision this month to use its National Wealth Fund for defence spending has raised fears of reduced funds for green energy. Kyte said no decisions had been made on how funds will be earmarked. "It's not a zero-sum game," she said, because the energy transition was being driven by "using public money effectively to crowd in private investments. The United States is also withdrawing from the Just Energy Transition Partnership to help developing countries including Indonesia, Vietnam and South Africa transition from coal, Reuters reported exclusively on Wednesday. "It's too early to tell what impact that has, but all the other partners are remaining, and ... deploying capital," which will in turn attract commercial investment, Kyte said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/world-must-stick-climate-goals-despite-us-uk-envoy-says-2025-03-06/