2025-10-03 21:09
Fed's Miran again presses for aggressive rate cuts Other Fed officials more wary of easing amid still-high inflation Miran does see easy financial conditions stopping rate cuts Oct 3 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran on Friday again pressed for an aggressive path of rate cuts citing the impact of Trump administration policies on the economy, while other central bank officials made the case for a more cautious approach citing still-worrisome inflation pressures. “My view is that if policy is out of whack, you should adjust it at a reasonably ... brisk pace,” Miran said in an interview on Bloomberg television. When it comes to the current setting of central bank interest rate policy, “we're not at the point yet where, if you sort of keep it there another day, it's a crisis, but if you keep it there for an extra year, yeah, I think you have…problems on your hands.” Sign up here. Miran said his belief that monetary policy needs to be much easier than it is now is based on his view that economic shifts largely on the immigration front suggest that the so-called neutral interest rate has declined from where it was. That means that if left near current levels, Fed policy has become more restrictive of growth, Miran said. Miran spoke on a day the government was supposed to release its latest employment sector report but did not due to a shutdown created by elected leaders' failure to agree on a budget. Miran did not express concern about missing the key data, noting the central bank still has time before its next meeting scheduled for late October. Miran is the Fed's newest governor and in a highly unusual state of affairs is on leave from a job at the Trump White House. He dissented in favor of a half-percentage-point rate cut at the interest-rate setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting last month. Then, officials trimmed their federal funds rate target range by a quarter percentage point to between 4% and 4.25% as they sought to balance a desire to lower still-high inflation while providing support for a weakening jobs market. Officials also penciled in further rate cuts and see the interest rate target in the 3.5% to 3.75% range by year's end, with a move to between 3.25% and 3.5% in 2026. Miran's preference for aggressive rate cuts puts him at a distance from most policymakers, especially as a wide range of regional Fed bank presidents are still worried about lowering rates with inflation well above the Fed's 2% target and expected to accelerate as President Donald Trump's tariffs surge through the economy. SERVICES INFLATION PUTS FED IN A STICKY SPOT Speaking on CNBC, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the Fed now finds itself in "a bit of a sticky spot" with recent data showing an upswing in services inflation while payroll job creation has been weakening. "You see this uptick in inflation and particularly the uptick in services inflation, which is probably not coming from tariffs," he said, adding "I'm a little wary about front-loading too many rate cuts and just counting on the inflation going away." Meanwhile, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan remained hawkish and told a conference that "we really need to be cautious of further rate cuts from here" in an environment where things like non-housing services inflation remain "worrisome" and suggestive that current above-target inflation is not just a tariff-driven issue. Fed second-in-command Philip Jefferson also spoke in remarks that noted the recent rate cut was important to help ward off further trouble in the job market. "With the unemployment rate at 4.3%, the labor market is softening, which suggests that, left unsupported, it could experience stress," he said, adding last month's easing "moved our policy rate closer to a more neutral stance while maintaining a balanced approach to promoting our dual-mandate objectives." In a press conference after the September FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted at Miran's isolation and said "there wasn’t widespread support at all for a 50-basis-point cut today," noting that policy moves of greater than 25 basis points often happen "when you feel that policy is out of place and needs to move quickly to a new place. That’s not at all what I feel, certainly now." That said, while Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman voted for the 25-basis-point cut, she has since argued that Fed policy is at risk of falling behind the curve in offsetting risks to the labor sector. In his remarks to the television channel, Miran said his longer-run expectations for monetary policy are not dissimilar from other policymakers and "all that's different is the fact that I want to get there a little bit faster." Miran also shrugged off the risks of cutting rates aggressively at a time when financial markets have been very buoyant and could rise further on cheaper short-term borrowing costs. "It can be a little bit of a mistake to look at financial conditions and infer something necessarily about the stance of monetary policy, because they can be driven up by other things," Miran said. And he added financial conditions are "not all loose" and housing finance, for example, is "relatively tight." https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/feds-miran-wants-aggressive-rate-cuts-downplays-differences-with-other-officials-2025-10-03/
2025-10-03 21:08
TSX ends up 1% at 30,471.68 Eclipses Thursday's record closing high Shopify jumps 6.5%; posts record intraday and closing highs For the week, the index adds 2.4% Oct 3 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index rose to another record high on Friday as shares of e-commerce company Shopify (SHOP.TO) , opens new tab jumped and investors shrugged off downbeat domestic economic data. Toronto's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) , opens new tab ended up 311.09 points, or 1%, at 30,471.68, its sixth straight day of gains and eclipsing Thursday's record closing high. Sign up here. For the week, the index was up 2.4%. "From a big picture point of view, we seem to be back to a situation where bad news for the economy is good for the markets," said Elvis Picardo, a portfolio manager at Luft Financial, iA Private Wealth. "On the Canadian side, we had pretty soft data but that was shrugged aside." Canada's services economy contracted at a steeper pace in September as businesses shed jobs and outstanding work sank to a five-year low, S&P Global's Canada services PMI data showed. A soft economy spurred the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates last month to a three-year low of 2.50%. Money market pricing has leaned toward further easing this month. The technology sector (.SPTTTK) , opens new tab rose 1.5%. Shopify's shares were up 6.5%, notching an all-time closing high. They also surpassed the record intraday peak from November 2021. "Shopify could be benefiting from enthusiasm for anything AI-related," Picardo said. "We don’t have too many companies with that pedigree in Canada." OpenAI has recently introduced a feature that would allow users to make purchases through ChatGPT, in partnership with Shopify and Etsy (ETSY.O) , opens new tab. Technology accounts for 11.5% of the TSX's weighting, far less than the U.S. benchmark S&P 500 where technology represents 50% of the index. Industrials added 1.1% and energy was up 1%. The price of oil settled 0.7% higher at $60.88 a barrel, clawing back some of this week's decline. Eight OPEC+ countries are likely to further raise oil output on Sunday. Nine of 10 major sectors ended higher. The exception was healthcare, which lost 1%. https://www.reuters.com/business/tsx-futures-inch-up-fed-rate-cut-hopes-despite-us-government-shutdown-2025-10-03/
2025-10-03 20:55
Oct 3 (Reuters) - Locomotive engineers at Union Pacific (UNP.N) , opens new tab voted to ratify a new five-year contract with the railroad operator, the BLET-Teamsters union said on Friday. Under the new contract, nearly 6,000 members represented by the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen, a division of the rail conference of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters (IBT), will earn raises of 18.8% over the life of the agreement. Sign up here. The contract also includes improved health and welfare benefits, the union said. Last week, the largest U.S. railroad union, SMART-TD, approved Union Pacific's $85 billion acquisition of Norfolk Southern (NSC.N) , opens new tab, helping to advance a deal that had been expected to face resistance from unions and regulators. The deal will create the nation's first coast-to-coast freight rail operator and reshape the movement of goods from grains to autos across the country. The two companies are expected to file a formal merger application with the Surface Transportation Board, which oversees rail competition and service, by late October or by January 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/union-pacific-locomotive-engineers-ratify-new-five-year-contract-2025-10-03/
2025-10-03 20:35
Hegseth says four people killed Alleges without evidence that boat was carrying drugs Strike is at least fourth in recent weeks in southern Caribbean WASHINGTON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - The United States killed four people in a strike against a vessel allegedly carrying illegal drugs just off the coast of Venezuela, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on Friday, at least the fourth such attack in recent weeks. The strike is the latest example of President Donald Trump's efforts to use U.S. military power in new, and often legally contentious, ways, from deploying active-duty U.S. troops in Los Angeles, to carrying out counter-terrorism strikes against drug trafficking suspects. Sign up here. Hegseth said Friday's strike was carried out in international waters and that all of the people killed were men. He said the vessel was transporting "substantial amounts of narcotics - headed to America to poison our people." "These strikes will continue until the attacks on the American people are over!!!!," Hegseth said in a post on X. In a nearly 40-second video shared by Hegseth, a vessel can be seen moving through the water before a web of projectiles fall on the boat and the surrounding water, causing the boat to explode on impact. Hegseth said, without providing evidence, that the intelligence "without a doubt" confirmed that the vessel was carrying drugs and that the people on board were "narco-terrorists." He did not disclose the amount or type of the alleged drugs on board the vessel. Trump, also without providing evidence, said the boat had enough drugs to kill 25,000 to 50,000 people. The Venezuelan communications ministry did not immediately reply to a request for comment. MILITARY BUILDUP In the past, counter-drug operations have been generally carried out by the U.S. Coast Guard, the main U.S. maritime law enforcement agency, not the U.S. military. But earlier this week, the Pentagon disclosed to Congress in a notification reviewed by Reuters that Trump has determined the United States is engaged in "a non-international armed conflict" with drug cartels. The document aimed to explain the Trump administration's legal rationale for unleashing U.S. military force in the Caribbean. Some former military lawyers say the legal explanations given by the Trump administration for killing suspected drug traffickers at sea instead of apprehending them fail to satisfy requirements under the law of war. Trump has said his administration is also considering attacking drug cartels "coming by land" , opens new tab, actions that could raise further legal questions. A large U.S. military buildup is taking place in the southern Caribbean. In additional to F-35 aircraft in Puerto Rico, there are eight U.S. warships in the region, carrying thousands of sailors and marines, and one nuclear-powered submarine. The Trump administration has provided scant information on the previous strikes, including the identities of those killed or details about the cargo. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has repeatedly alleged that the U.S. is hoping to drive him from power. Washington in August doubled its reward for information leading to Maduro's arrest to $50 million, accusing him of links to drug trafficking and criminal groups that Maduro denies. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-carries-out-new-strike-against-alleged-drug-vessel-near-venezuela-2025-10-03/
2025-10-03 18:59
WASHINGTON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - A Republican bill to fund the U.S. government and end a shutdown was falling short of the votes needed for passage in the Senate on Friday, as voting continued. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/republican-bill-end-us-government-shutdown-falling-short-passage-senate-voting-2025-10-03/
2025-10-03 18:53
US crude exports hit 4.2 million bpd in September South Korea and India increase US crude purchases China to resume US crude imports as tensions ease HOUSTON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Exports of U.S. crude oil climbed to the highest level in over a year and a half in September, ship tracking data showed, as U.S. refineries began seasonal maintenance and Asian demand increased. U.S. crude exports rose to an average of 4.2 million barrels per day in September, the highest since February 2024, according to data from ship tracking firm Kpler. Exports had eased in July to their lowest levels in nearly four years on low domestic supplies and as Asian and European buyers found cheaper alternatives. Sign up here. The spread between global benchmark Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures widened in August, when the bulk of the trades for September were executed, averaging minus $3.79, the widest in four months. A wider spread makes it more attractive to economically ship barrels across the Atlantic. Exports to South Korea climbed to 690,000 barrels per day in September, the highest on record. South Korea has agreed to purchase liquefied natural gas or other energy products from the U.S. to the value of $100 billion. FIRST US CRUDE EXPORT TO PAKISTAN September was also marked by the first export of U.S. crude to Pakistan after a landmark trade deal. The country ordered a second shipment that sailed in September after finding its debut purchase commercially viable. Overall, shipments to the country totaled 1.9 billion barrels, or 62,000 bpd. Indian refiners also bought more cargoes of U.S. crude oil, drawn by the competitive prices, and pressure from the U.S. that on Indian imports to 50%, citing New Delhi’s buying of Russian oil. Exports to Australia rose to around 79,000 bpd, their highest since March 2024, while those to Europe eased 11% to 1.7 million bpd in September from August. Shipments to China were set to resume in October after seven months of no shipments, with volumes expected to reach as much as 335,000 bpd, Kpler said, citing fixtures data. China, the world's biggest consumer of oil, had halted purchases after February in response to escalating trade tensions. Last month, U.S. President Donald Trump said China's President Xi Jinping agreed during a call to meet face to face in South Korea to discuss the trade conflict. "The renewed flows come amid signs of easing tensions between Washington and Beijing," Kpler said in a post on X. While trade deals could contribute to incremental shipments, higher shipping costs and relatively high prices for West Texas Intermediate crude threaten to shut the U.S.-Asia oil arbitrage for November. Domestic demand should also increase after the turnaround season over the coming weeks when refineries conduct maintenance on plants and equipment, reducing the availability of barrels for export, analysts with Energy Aspects said in a note. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-exports-rise-15-year-high-strong-asian-demand-us-refinery-maintenance-2025-10-03/
