2025-10-02 11:15

JAKARTA, Oct 2 (Reuters) - The Indonesian trade ministry on Thursday urged the European Union to adopt World Trade Organization's panel ruling to remove countervailing duties on Indonesian biodiesel imports and regretted the block's move to appeal the WTO ruling. The European Union said last week it will appeal the WTO panel ruling which backed Jakarta's claim that the duties levied by the EU, the third-largest destination for Indonesian palm oil products, broke the trade body's rules. Sign up here. "The EU's decision to file an appeal on Dispute Panel DS618 decision is irrelevant," Trade Minister Budi Santoso said in a statement, pointing out that the WTO Appellate Body ceased functioning in 2019. "This EU move could be seen as an attempt to buy time," he said. The EU has imposed the duties, ranging from 8% to 18%, since 2019, saying the Southeast Asian nation's biodiesel producers benefited from grants, tax benefits and access to raw materials below market prices. The case joins a string of disputes over biodiesel tariffs and palm oil's link to deforestation, even as the EU and Indonesia finalised negotiations on a free trade deal last month. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/indonesia-regrets-eus-move-appeal-wto-biodiesel-ruling-2025-10-02/

2025-10-02 11:02

SANTIAGO, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Chile's wine exports to its top market of Brazil are booming, helping to offset a decline in sales to United States partly due to tariffs, according to export data and industry experts. Data from Wines of Chile, an association of wine producers, shows purchases from the U.S., Chile's second-biggest market by volume, have fallen 13% in the first seven months of the year as President Donald Trump's administration imposed tariffs. Sign up here. "We went from zero tariffs to 10%," said Angelica Valenzuela, Wines of Chile’s commercial director. "Every time you have a tariff, or some roadblock, there's some kind of freeze, or slowdown." Valenzuela said initially, wine producers and importers absorbed the cost of tariffs, but "since it's something that's remained longer, the cost started transferring to the consumer." "What we see now is an American market that's less dynamic and is declining," she added. Chile's exports to China have dropped by nearly 23% over the same period, but she attributed that to lower wine consumption, which has affected most countries that sell to China. In contrast, Brazil is booming, consolidating its position as Chile's top export destination, with shipments jumping nearly 10% over the period. Chile accounts for nearly half of Brazil's import market, Valenzuela said, adding there was "enormous expansion potential." The number of regular wine consumers in Brazil is growing, especially among women and consumers with more disposable income, Valenzuela said. She said Chile's marketing strategy will now focus on strengthening the country's image as a source of premium and sustainable wines. Overall, Chile's wine exports have remained steady in 2025. Canada, Japan, Ireland and South Korea all registered growth while Mexico, the Netherlands and Britain declined. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/chilean-wines-boom-brazil-tariffs-dampen-us-demand-2025-10-02/

2025-10-02 10:33

LONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. With the U.S. government still shut down and China on holiday, world markets lapped up Federal Reserve easing speculation and European stocks hit record highs - riffing off the available U.S. labor market data as well as AI and trade-related themes. Wall Street stocks shook off news of a surprising drop in private sector payrolls last month and the first day of the U.S. government shutdown on Wednesday. All three major indexes finished higher again and interest rate markets priced in a 95% chance of 50 basis points of more Fed rate cuts by yearend. Stock index futures were higher again before Thursday's bell, with short-dated Treasury yields at two-week lows, the dollar softer and crude oil prices at their lowest in four months. Wednesday's stocks bid was led by healthcare after Tuesday's Pfizer-Trump pricing deal set off sector rotation, while chips extended gains. Gold hovered near record highs and Bitcoin hit its best level in almost two months. Helped by the pharma rally and this quarter's start of Germany's fiscal boost, euro zone stock indexes (.STOXXE) , opens new tab - whose 33% gains this year in dollar terms are more than twice that of the S&P500 - hit new record highs. And with China on its Golden Week break, other Asian markets took the tech cue overnight, with South Korea's Kospi index up almost 3% after Samsung and SK Hynix signed letters to supply memory chips for OpenAI's data centers. Japan's Nikkei was also up almost 1% on a chip-driven rally after four down days. In today's column, I look at the Swiss National Bank's intervention to buy euros to weaken the franc in the second quarter may mean for global reserve management and markets. Today's Market Minute * President Trump's administration on Wednesday froze $26 billion for Democratic-leaning states, following through on a threat to use the , opens new tab government shutdown to target Democratic priorities. , opens new tab * OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, has reached a valuation of $500 billion, following a deal in which current and former employees sold roughly $6.6 billion worth of shares, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Thursday. * Tesla TSLA.O CEO Elon Musk on Wednesday became the first person ever to achieve a net worth of nearly $500 billion, propelled by a rebound in the EV company's shares and surging valuations of the tech entrepreneur's other startups this year. * The European Union is currently debating how and when to halt its significant energy imports from Russia. One potentially easier option, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso, would be closing loopholes that currently facilitate substantial imports of niche fuels from Moscow. * As China faces a growth slowdown, the technology-driven "intelligent economy" and emerging consumption trends offer protection against slackening economic activity, but more targeted government policies will still likely be needed to sustain momentum. Read the latest from Emmer Capital Partners Ltd founder Manishi Raychaudhuri. Chart of the day The absence of official U.S. payroll statistics due to this week's government shutdown has put the focus on other cuts of the jobs market - with the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey that hiring declined in August and there are now more people looking for work than there are available jobs. The Conference Board's September consumer confidence survey showed the gap between respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get narrowed to a more than 4-1/2-year low of 7.8 from 11.1 last month. Today's events to watch * U.S. September layoffs from Challenger (7:30 AM EDT), US August factory goods orders (10:00 AM EDT) * Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan speaks; European Central Bank Vice-President Luis De Guindos, French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau and Ireland's central bank boss Gabriel Makhlouf all speak Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-10-02/

2025-10-02 10:30

Volvo Cars and Stellantis shares rise 5% and 7% respectively Stellantis posted first quarterly sales growth in US this year. Automakers continue to adjust models they sell in the US STOCKHOLM, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Shares in European automakers Volvo Cars (VOLCARb.ST) , opens new tab and Stellantis (STLAM.MI) , opens new tab jumped on Thursday after stronger than expected U.S. sales figures helped ease concerns that tariffs might dent demand. Investors have been bracing for a slowdown in U.S. car buying due to higher import duties imposed by President Donald Trump, part of his broader push to boost domestic manufacturing. Sign up here. Automakers have scrambled to adjust by, for example, focusing on higher-margin models such as SUVs and pickup trucks that are better able to absorb the impact of any tariffs. Several U.S. and some other automakers posted stronger than feared third-quarter U.S. sales figures on Wednesday and Thursday. Stellantis reported late Wednesday its first quarterly growth in the U.S. this year, with new car sales up 6% in the period, boosting its shares as much as 7% on Thursday. The French-Italian-American carmaker said its Jeep, Chrysler, Ram and FIAT brands all saw sales growth. Shares in Volvo Cars were up 5% at 0925 GMT, after posting on Thursday a 3% increase in its third-quarter U.S. sales. Non-electrified models continued to dominate Volvo Cars' U.S. sales, with nearly 70% of September volumes made up of mild hybrids - where electric power only supplements the combustion engine - and other internal combustion engine cars. The Swedish carmaker, majority-owned by China's Geely Holding (GEELY.UL), is among the most exposed European manufacturers to U.S. tariffs as most of its U.S.-bound vehicles are produced in Europe. Volvo Cars currently builds only its electric EX90 SUV in the United States but plans to start producing its popular XC60 plug-in hybrid there by the end of 2026, alongside an additional hybrid model at its South Carolina factory before 2030. In September, Volvo sold a total of 1,629 EX90s globally, and 20,496 XC60s. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/volvo-cars-sales-rise-1-september-2025-10-02/

2025-10-02 10:19

Lengthier shutdown stands to weigh more on economy Lack of data could put Fed in bind heading into monetary policy meeting Weak ADP private payrolls data could take on more prominence NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Investors have anticipated for weeks the risks of a U.S. government shutdown , opens new tab to markets. Now that it is here, they are hoping it will be brief. A shutdown that lasts at least several weeks could cause confusion about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path as the central bank will be without government data that helps guide its decisions, while also posing a possible drag on economic growth the longer it extends. Sign up here. "We have the markets trading at extended valuations at all-time highs with an economy that seems to be showing some pretty clear signs of slowing," said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management. "That slowness in the economy is going to be exacerbated by the lack of government spending, and the longer it goes on, the more difficult it is to overcome those challenges." The shutdown, impacting a wide swath of government operations, is leading to the furlough of federal workers, while U.S. President Donald Trump, whose campaign to reshape the government is on track to push out some 300,000 workers by December, has warned congressional Democrats that a shutdown could lead to more job cuts. Shutdowns in the past have typically had limited impact on the markets, with the S&P 500 stock index (.SPX) , opens new tab roughly flat on average during shutdowns since 1976, according to LPL Financial. More recently, since 1995, the S&P 500 finished higher during every shutdown, according to John Luke Tyner, portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors. However, this impasse could present a different risk, some investors say. The shutdown comes alongside concerns about America's fiscal health - highlighted by a downgrade earlier this year of the country's sovereign debt - and as companies absorb the impact of tariffs. "It's the cumulative, compounding effect of all of these events - the U.S. credit rating downgrade, the changes to the trade regime and now the shutdown - that worry me," said Brian Shipley, chief investment officer of Coldstream Wealth Management. Shipley said if it extends past the two-to-four week time frame seen in the past, it opens up a question about how investors globally will view the U.S. He said he has shifted some assets out of Treasury bills to a portfolio manager with a wide mandate to own assets including international bonds. LENGTHY SHUTDOWN COULD DRAG ON GDP The shutdown's hit to growth will depend on its length, analysts said. Oxford Economics estimated that a partial government shutdown reduces economic growth by between 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points per week. A shutdown that lasts the entire quarter would reduce fourth-quarter real gross domestic product by 1.2 to 2.4 percentage points, Oxford Economics said in a note, while cautioning that a shutdown of that length has never occurred before. A long-lasting shutdown may weigh more on consumer sentiment, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and chief market strategist at New York Life Investments. The 2018-2019 shutdown that lasted over 30 days coincided with a 7% hit to confidence in the University of Michigan consumer survey, Goodwin said in written commentary. The 19 partial or full government shutdowns over the past 50 years have gone on for an average of about eight days, according to analysts at Canaccord Genuity. Analysts at BBH said in a note that a shutdown of more than two weeks "increases the downside risk to growth." That in turn, BBH said, raises the likelihood of a more accommodative Fed which can further weigh on the U.S. dollar. DATA DELAYS COULD MUDDY FED VIEW Indeed, many investors were focused on how the shutdown might sway Fed policy with the central bank due to meet at the end of the month and the likelihood now of delays to key data, starting with the U.S. employment report that had been scheduled to be released on Friday. That expected gap in government releases could place more emphasis on alternative data including the ADP National Employment report published on Wednesday, which showed private payrolls dropped by the most in 2-1/2 years in September. "If the shutdown drags on, the weakness in the ADP will be all the Fed has to go on," Capital Economics analysts said in a note. Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities, doubted the shutdown would last two or three weeks, "but if it should, that puts the Federal Reserve in a big bind." As of Wednesday, Fed funds futures indicated investors widely expect a standard quarter-percentage-point cut at the central bank's October 28-29 meeting, according to LSEG data. To be sure, investors said that any economic hit to growth would likely be recouped at least to some extent once the government reopened. "The longer they go on, they do present more risk," said Jack Ablin, founding partner and chief investment strategist at Cresset Capital. However, Ablin added, "just like the shutdown isn't permanent, any market impairment won't be permanent either." https://www.reuters.com/business/prolonged-us-government-shutdown-could-raise-market-risks-2025-10-02/

2025-10-02 10:00

FRANKFURT, Oct 2 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank said on Thursday it had picked a Portuguese startup focussed on artificial intelligence to help prevent fraud in its planned digital euro currency. The contract with Feedzai, worth up to 237.3 million euros ($278.69 million), is one of several announced by the ECB on Thursday to advance a project that it sees as key for the euro zone's financial autonomy from the United States. Sign up here. Under it, Feedzai and its subcontractor PwC will provide an AI model for scoring digital euro payments by their fraud risk, based on any deviation from a customer's typical behaviour, interactions and history. This is aimed at helping payment service providers decide whether to approve a transaction in digital euros, essentially an exchange between electronic wallets backed by the central bank. The four-year agreement, with an option to extend it to 15 years, has an estimated value of 79.1 million euros and a cap at 237.3 million euros. Four further digital euro contracts worth between 27.6 million euros and 220.7 million euros were awarded to other companies, including French IT consulting firm Capgemini (CAPP.PA) , opens new tab. Under such framework agreements, the ECB won't pay contractors until the project starts. The central bank is still awaiting legislative approval for its digital euro, which it has pitched as a response to Visa and Mastercard's dominance and to U.S. President Donald Trump's promotion of stablecoins pegged to the dollar. It hopes to receive the go-ahead around the middle of next year, with a view to launching the digital currency in 2029. Registered in Portugal, Feedzai says it processes $8 trillion worth of payments every year for clients including Portuguese bank Novobanco and Abu Dhabi's Wio Bank. On Thursday, it also announced $75 million in funding from Lince Capital, Iberis Capital and Explorer Investments among others. ($1 = 0.8515 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ecb-picks-ai-startup-prevent-digital-euro-frauds-2025-10-02/