2025-10-02 06:44

Gold climbed to all-time high of $3,895.09/oz on Wednesday US private payrolls decline in September Upside risks to $4,000 mid-2026 gold forecast have intensified - Goldman Sachs Oct 2 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Thursday, hovering near record highs, as heightened expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts this year and political uncertainty on account of a contentious U.S. government shutdown drove demand for the metal. Spot gold was up 0.5% at $3,883.69 per ounce by 1134 GMT, down from Wednesday's all-time high of $3,895.09. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.3% to $3,908.90. Sign up here. The U.S. dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab inched lower to hover near one-week lows reached on Wednesday. Data showed on Wednesday that U.S. private payrolls fell by 32,000 jobs in September after a downwardly revised 3,000 decline in August. "Overall, a softer dollar, weak economic data as highlighted in yesterday’s ADP print, and the government shutdown continues to attract demand from investors looking to join the momentum train," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. The U.S. government has shut down much of its operations, potentially putting thousands of federal jobs at risk, and possibly delaying the release of economic indicators, including the key non-farm payrolls (NFP) report due Friday. Traders are pricing in a near-certain 25-bp interest rate cut this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Gold, which offers no yield but attracts investors in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, thrives in a low-interest-rate environment. Gold remains Goldman Sachs' highest-conviction long commodity recommendation, the bank said in a note on Wednesday, "The upside risks to our $4,000/oz mid-2026 and $4,300/oz December 2026 gold price forecasts have intensified further due to speculative positioning and large upside surprise to Western ETF holdings," Goldman Sachs added. SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings rose 0.59% from Tuesday to 1,018.89 metric tons on Wednesday, their highest since July 2022. Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.3% to $47.46 per ounce, platinum climbed 1.9% to $1,587.01 and palladium gained 1.6% to $1,264.59. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-hovers-near-all-time-high-fed-rate-cut-bets-us-shutdown-2025-10-02/

2025-10-02 06:14

EU loopholes allow imports of Russian condensate, butane and gasoil EU plans to halt pipeline oil and gas imports in 2028 Bloc aims to stop Russian LNG imports a year earlier LONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - The European Union is currently debating how and when to halt its significant energy imports from Russia. One potentially easier option would be closing loopholes that currently facilitate substantial imports of niche fuels from Moscow. The EU has come under pressure from the United States to accelerate the bloc’s plan to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels by the end of 2027. U.S. President Donald Trump is seeking to increase economic pressure on Moscow to encourage an end to its war in Ukraine. Sign up here. While Europe has sharply reduced its purchases of Russian oil and gas since 2022, it remains a significant importer. In August, the EU was the fourth-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels, accounting for around $1.4 billion of Moscow’s export revenue, according to the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. CLOSING LOOPHOLES Liquefied natural gas and pipeline gas make up two-thirds of these imports, followed by crude oil at 32%. The remaining 2% came from niche products exempt from sanctions. The EU aggressively reduced Russian oil imports, imposing a ban, with some exceptions, in 2023. Russia's share in EU oil imports has dropped from 29% in early 2021 to 2% in the second quarter of 2025, according to official data. The bulk of remaining oil imports go to landlocked Hungary and Slovakia, which were able to negotiate carve-outs, arguing that logistical constraints made it too complex and expensive for them to find alternative supply routes. While the EU hasn’t formally banned Russian gas imports, Europe has reduced Russian pipeline gas purchases from 48% of total imports in 2021 to 12% this year, with Hungary and Slovakia again the major buyers, along with Austria. However, pipeline gas has been replaced by LNG. And the bloc’s Russian imports of the super-chilled fuel actually rose to 11 billion cubic meters in the first half of 2025, up from 9.5 bcm in the same period in 2019, according to research centre Bruegel. Given this backdrop, how might the EU respond to the U.S. president’s call to wean itself off Russian energy more quickly? An easy win for the EU would be bringing forward the ban , opens new tab on LNG imports by one year, something that is already included in the 19th package of sanctions against Russia proposed by the European Commission in September. The global LNG market is expected to be well supplied for years, thanks to production growth in the U.S. and Qatar, meaning ending Russian LNG imports likely would not significantly raise energy costs for Europe. However, the timeline for phasing out Russian pipeline oil and gas imports – which remains unchanged in Europe’s latest proposed sanctions package – is far more politically and technically complex given the objections of Hungary and Slovakia. Another, less politically fraught option would be closing loopholes that have allowed the EU to continue importing significant volumes of specialized oil products. Tankers deliver around 20,000 barrels per day of gas condensate from Russia’s Yamal LNG plant in the Arctic to the Dutch port of Rotterdam. Condensate is typically used as feedstock for gasoline and jet fuel. In December 2022, the EU excluded gas condensate imports from its Russian oil ban, arguing that the byproduct of non-sanctioned LNG facilities should not be restricted. This wasn’t the only niche carve-out. While the EU banned Russian liquefied petroleum gas imports in December 2024 - a fuel mainly used for heating and transportation – it allowed Poland to continue importing butane with over 95% purity from Russia. This loophole seems to be widening. Pure butane imports into Poland have surged since the start of 2025, peaking at 40,000 tonnes in March, five times the average monthly level in the previous year. Importers exploited the loophole to blend the cheaper product into other LPG inventories, according to Bartosz Kwiatkowski, director general of the Polish Liquid Gas Association. Finally, the Commission renewed an exemption last year allowing Croatia to import Russian vacuum gas oil, a refinery feedstock. The EU already appears to have these loopholes in its sights. Imports of Russian vacuum gas oil are currently scheduled to stop at the end of 2025, and the EU’s 19th sanctions package is expected to close the butane loophole, though the timeline remains unclear. Clarifying and speeding up these efforts might be an easy next step. SENDING A MESSAGE Europe’s dependence on Russian energy imports spans decades. Cutting off the remaining imports, especially pipeline oil and gas shipments into inland markets, may be financially painful and politically sensitive – and thus will not be accomplished quickly. Halting imports of niche products like gas condensate and isobutane, on the other hand, would be a far smaller challenge. It would not be a game-changer, but it would dent Russia’s revenue and send a clear message to both Moscow and Washington. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. Want to receive my column in your inbox every Monday and Thursday, along with additional energy insights and links to trending stories? Sign up for my Power Up newsletter here. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), , opens new tabyour essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI , opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/europe-can-flatter-trump-sting-putin-by-ditching-niche-russian-fuels-2025-10-02/

2025-10-02 06:06

KABUL, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Cell phone and internet services were restored in Afghanistan on Wednesday, local residents said, some 48 hours after diplomatic and industry sources said connectivity was abruptly cut on the orders of the Taliban administration. The cell phone services of Roshan and Etisalat companies, the foreign-owned biggest providers, came back to life in the late afternoon, residents in Kabul and other cities said. Internet access was restored, according to companies providing the service. Sign up here. The ruling Taliban did not provide a reason for the services going down or their restoration, but one Taliban source in the information department said there were technical reasons for the outage and that services would be quickly restored. Reuters could not verify his information. He did not respond to a request for comment on whether the Taliban had ordered the outage. The United Nations had called for connectivity to be reinstated. The outage on connectivity, which started on Monday, follows a series of hard-line strictures this year, including an internet ban across a swathe of the country's north, and a ban on playing chess that was imposed for fears it was giving rise to gambling. The outage had caused chaos, with financial remittances, trade with neighbouring countries and the operations of banks paralysed, while many Afghans were left stranded by cancelled flights. Online learning by teenage girls and women, an education lifeline after they were banned by the Taliban from high schools and universities, was also brought to a stop. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/internet-cut-off-leaves-afghans-stranded-flights-cancelled-2025-10-01/

2025-10-02 06:05

Fuel oil demand rises faster than previously thought Shadow fleet growth boosts fuel oil burn Red Sea diversions adding to consumption LONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Fuel oil used in ships and power plants is seeing unexpected demand, with efforts to curb its use more than offset by an expanding shadow fleet of oil tankers serving Russia and others, and longer shipping routes as vessels avoid the Red Sea. Instead of switching to cleaner-burning alternatives such as marine gasoil and low-sulphur fuel oil, many shippers have installed exhaust gas cleaning devices known as scrubbers to continue using high-sulphur fuel oil. Western sanctions and attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have further driven this unforeseen demand. Sign up here. "Fuel oil markets have shown remarkable resilience, with demand outperforming expectations due to several key factors, such as still-firm power generation demand in the Middle East and Red Sea shipping disruptions because of Houthi attacks," said Royston Huan, analyst at Energy Aspects. While global demand for diesel and jet fuel have fallen globally since 2019 pre-pandemic levels, and gasoline consumption has risen by just 1.9%, fuel oil demand is up by 4.8% to an average 6.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, according to the International Energy Agency’s June annual report. FUEL OIL DEMAND SURGES PAST EXPECTATIONS In 2020, the IEA had forecast fuel oil demand would grow by just 1.6% between 2019 and 2025 — the slowest pace among major refined fuels. IEA analyst Ciaran Healy told Reuters that fuel oil use in power generation has slightly outperformed the agency's expectations in recent years, largely due to hotter summers in the Middle East and North Africa. Saudi Arabia and Egypt's fuel oil imports rose by 33% year-on-year in 2024 and remained around 31% higher in 2025 so far compared with 2023, according to shipping data firm Kpler. Western sanctions on Russia have also contributed, with Saudi Arabia importing discounted Russian fuel oil to free up more of its own crude for export. RED SEA DIVERSIONS, SHADOW FLEET More ships now travel around the Cape of Good Hope instead of the Suez Canal, boosting fuel oil demand, as conflict in the Red Sea continues. Vessels have avoided the region since 2023 due to attacks by Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis, who aim to disrupt global shipping in protest over the war in Gaza. These diversions have increased fuel oil demand by around 100,000 bpd, roughly 2% of global bunker demand, according to consultancy FGE. The IEA, however, believes disruption to shipping in the Red Sea has given a smaller-than-anticipated boost to bunkering volumes, Healy said. Western sanctions on Iran and Russia have also fuelled the growth of a shadow fleet of ageing vessels likely running on high-sulphur fuel oil, or HSFO, said Valerie Panopio, analyst at Rystad Energy. Such vessels typically have opaque ownership structures and sail without top-tier Western insurance or safety certification cover. The shadow fleet comprises between 1,200 and 1,600 tankers, according to estimates from industry sources and analysts, including Lloyd's List Intelligence and shipbroker Gibson, representing around a fifth of the global tanker fleet. That would imply shadow fleet tankers consume more than 106,000 bpd, or about 2% of global demand, based on Reuters calculations using 2023 bunker data from the International Maritime Organization. "Many of these vessels will be proverbial rust buckets that are more than 15 and, in some cases, even older than 20 years," said FGE's Eugene Lindell, adding that these ships are less fuel-efficient and undertake long-haul routes, further increasing fuel oil consumption. SCRUBBER ADOPTION AND REGULATORY CHALLENGES The IMO's 2020 regulations lowered the sulphur content limit in marine fuels from 3.5% to 0.5%, initially dampening demand for HSFO. However, widespread adoption of scrubbers — onboard systems that allow ships to burn HSFO while reducing its environmental impact — has driven a recovery in consumption. By the end of 2024, more than 6,000 vessels had installed scrubbers, according to maritime consultancy DNV, which expects the number to reach 6,523 by year-end, up from 4,348 in 2020. Despite forecasts by the IEA showing fuel oil demand declining after 2026, averaging 6.1 million bpd by 2030, opposition to IMO regulations could sustain demand. Energy Aspects said that U.S. President Donald Trump's administration has resisted the IMO's tighter emissions rules and proposed carbon pricing, which may delay their implementation. "Fuel oil demand will be sticky for, at least, the end of this decade," said Kenneth Tveter of shipbroker Clarksons. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/fuel-oil-demand-defies-forecasts-due-red-sea-disruptions-shadow-fleet-expansion-2025-10-02/

2025-10-02 06:05

LONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Global fuel oil demand has exceeded expectations in recent years, according to the International Energy Agency and other forecasters. The IEA's latest medium-term outlook projects that residual fuel oil demand in 2025 will be 4.8% higher than in 2019, compared with a 1.9% increase in gasoline consumption. In contrast, demand for jet fuel and gasoil/diesel is expected to remain below 2019 levels. Sign up here. In 2020, the IEA expected fuel oil demand to post the slowest growth of those fuels over 2019-2025. IEA's Oil 2025 Report Global demand by product in millions of barrels per day IEA's Oil 2020 Report Global demand by product in millions of barrels per day https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/global-fuel-oil-demand-seen-2025-2020-2025-10-02/

2025-10-02 06:02

Investors sanguine about impact of US shutdown US, European stocks at new all-time high Two more Fed cuts expected this year after weak ADP jobs report Gold hovers near record highs NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Global stocks gained and gold traded near record highs on Thursday as investors took in their stride the potential ramifications of a U.S. government shutdown, while a weak private U.S. labor market report bolstered bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Investors have been largely sanguine about the shutdown's impact on the markets and economy, helped by data of past shutdowns that showed limited fallouts. Morgan Stanley, for example, said U.S. share prices have risen an average 4.4% while real U.S. economic growth has expanded 2.2% during shutdowns in the past. Sign up here. Instead, investors are focused on how much the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates this year, and whether the roaring U.S. stock market is due for a short-term pullback in the near future. Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe, co-founders of DataTrek Research, said sector sub-indices for the S&P 500 index (.SPX) , opens new tab are showing a marked correlation with downside risks. "Every other time they have done so since 2023, the S&P has declined by 5-18% in the following weeks," Colas and Rabe said. "This is not an outright 'sell' signal, but history says to be selective here." The S&P 500, which has risen 14% so far this year, was flat after briefly touching a record high of 6,731.94 points. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab gained 0.4% after also hitting an all-time high of 22,900.60 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab added 0.2%. A protracted U.S. government shutdown could mean that the release of key official data on employment and inflation is delayed or disrupted, clouding the picture on the health of the world's biggest economy and the path for interest rates. A monthly payrolls report seems unlikely now to be released on Friday, putting an ADP employment report that showed the economy unexpectedly shed jobs in September into sharper focus. Traders are now pricing in two quarter-point Fed rate cuts by the end of the year as almost a done deal. "I hope they sort this out rapidly," said Kevin Thozet, investment committee member at asset manager Carmignac, referring to the government shutdown, adding that inflation data was also due ahead of the Fed's next meeting. "It's like a blind man walking with a blind dog," he said. SHUTDOWN ANGST HURTS DOLLAR, BOOSTS GOLD The MSCI's broadest index of global stocks was up about 0.2% on Thursday, after European stocks hit another record high, up about 0.5%. (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab, (.STOXX) , opens new tab Tech shares in Asia had earlier rallied, helping drive up the region's stock indexes, partly lifted by news that South Korean chip heavyweights Samsung and SK Hynix inked partnerships to supply OpenAI data centres. (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab Gold , which have been buoyed by a combination of Fed easing bets and some shutdown angst, took a breather and slipped 0.2% after reaching another all-time high of $3,895.09 overnight. The two-year Treasury yield sank to a two-week low of 3.531% overnight, and was last at 3.5408%. "As is often the case, fresh highs are likely to beget yet more fresh highs here, with momentum still firmly with the bulls, and the fundamental case for further upside in PMs (precious metals) a solid one too," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. The U.S. dollar index , which tracks the currency against six major peers, languished near a one-week low of 97.459 reached overnight. It last stood at 97.856, up 0.1% from Wednesday's closing level. The dollar rose 0.1% against the yen at 147.22 yen , after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida signalled confidence that conditions for another interest rate hike were falling into place in remarks at an industry event. The euro was flat at $1.1720, while sterling fell 0.3% at $1.3444. Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, extending a run of declines into a fourth day due to concerns about oversupply in the market. Brent crude futures fell 1.5% to $64.38 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also dipped 1.6% to $60.77 a barrel. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-10-02/