2025-10-02 06:05
LONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Global fuel oil demand has exceeded expectations in recent years, according to the International Energy Agency and other forecasters. The IEA's latest medium-term outlook projects that residual fuel oil demand in 2025 will be 4.8% higher than in 2019, compared with a 1.9% increase in gasoline consumption. In contrast, demand for jet fuel and gasoil/diesel is expected to remain below 2019 levels. Sign up here. In 2020, the IEA expected fuel oil demand to post the slowest growth of those fuels over 2019-2025. IEA's Oil 2025 Report Global demand by product in millions of barrels per day IEA's Oil 2020 Report Global demand by product in millions of barrels per day https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/global-fuel-oil-demand-seen-2025-2020-2025-10-02/
2025-10-02 06:02
Investors sanguine about impact of US shutdown US, European stocks at new all-time high Two more Fed cuts expected this year after weak ADP jobs report Gold hovers near record highs NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Global stocks gained and gold traded near record highs on Thursday as investors took in their stride the potential ramifications of a U.S. government shutdown, while a weak private U.S. labor market report bolstered bets for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Investors have been largely sanguine about the shutdown's impact on the markets and economy, helped by data of past shutdowns that showed limited fallouts. Morgan Stanley, for example, said U.S. share prices have risen an average 4.4% while real U.S. economic growth has expanded 2.2% during shutdowns in the past. Sign up here. Instead, investors are focused on how much the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates this year, and whether the roaring U.S. stock market is due for a short-term pullback in the near future. Nicholas Colas and Jessica Rabe, co-founders of DataTrek Research, said sector sub-indices for the S&P 500 index (.SPX) , opens new tab are showing a marked correlation with downside risks. "Every other time they have done so since 2023, the S&P has declined by 5-18% in the following weeks," Colas and Rabe said. "This is not an outright 'sell' signal, but history says to be selective here." The S&P 500, which has risen 14% so far this year, was flat after briefly touching a record high of 6,731.94 points. The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab gained 0.4% after also hitting an all-time high of 22,900.60 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab added 0.2%. A protracted U.S. government shutdown could mean that the release of key official data on employment and inflation is delayed or disrupted, clouding the picture on the health of the world's biggest economy and the path for interest rates. A monthly payrolls report seems unlikely now to be released on Friday, putting an ADP employment report that showed the economy unexpectedly shed jobs in September into sharper focus. Traders are now pricing in two quarter-point Fed rate cuts by the end of the year as almost a done deal. "I hope they sort this out rapidly," said Kevin Thozet, investment committee member at asset manager Carmignac, referring to the government shutdown, adding that inflation data was also due ahead of the Fed's next meeting. "It's like a blind man walking with a blind dog," he said. SHUTDOWN ANGST HURTS DOLLAR, BOOSTS GOLD The MSCI's broadest index of global stocks was up about 0.2% on Thursday, after European stocks hit another record high, up about 0.5%. (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab, (.STOXX) , opens new tab Tech shares in Asia had earlier rallied, helping drive up the region's stock indexes, partly lifted by news that South Korean chip heavyweights Samsung and SK Hynix inked partnerships to supply OpenAI data centres. (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab Gold , which have been buoyed by a combination of Fed easing bets and some shutdown angst, took a breather and slipped 0.2% after reaching another all-time high of $3,895.09 overnight. The two-year Treasury yield sank to a two-week low of 3.531% overnight, and was last at 3.5408%. "As is often the case, fresh highs are likely to beget yet more fresh highs here, with momentum still firmly with the bulls, and the fundamental case for further upside in PMs (precious metals) a solid one too," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. The U.S. dollar index , which tracks the currency against six major peers, languished near a one-week low of 97.459 reached overnight. It last stood at 97.856, up 0.1% from Wednesday's closing level. The dollar rose 0.1% against the yen at 147.22 yen , after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida signalled confidence that conditions for another interest rate hike were falling into place in remarks at an industry event. The euro was flat at $1.1720, while sterling fell 0.3% at $1.3444. Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, extending a run of declines into a fourth day due to concerns about oversupply in the market. Brent crude futures fell 1.5% to $64.38 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also dipped 1.6% to $60.77 a barrel. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-10-02/
2025-10-02 05:40
Oct 2 (Reuters) - Citigroup raised its year-end outlook for ether and slightly trimmed its view on bitcoin, citing shifting investor flows and macroeconomic crosscurrents. Investors are increasingly favouring the yield-generating ether over bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, which relies solely on price appreciation. Sign up here. The Wall Street brokerage's target of $133,000 for bitcoin implies a roughly 12% upside from its trading level of $118,747.48, as of 0530 GMT. For ether , the target is $4,500, implying a nearly 3% upside from its level of $4,375. Citi sees continued upside next year, with a 12-month target of $5,440 for ether and $181,000 for bitcoin. Bitcoin's year-end forecast was revised slightly lower, as Citi pointed to offsetting macro factors including a stronger dollar and weaker gold prices. While bitcoin continues to trade above adoption model estimates, the brokerage said its "digital gold" narrative remains intact and is likely to attract a larger share of incremental flows. Citi analysts raised their year-end forecast for ether, noting the token's sharp price jump over the summer as institutional investors and financial advisors ramped up crypto buying. The brokerage expects it to end 2025 modestly higher, supported by strong inflows from exchange-traded funds and digital asset treasuries. Citi's base case assumes robust year-end flows of $7.5 billion into bitcoin, with a bull case predicated on stronger equity markets and higher demand. For ether, the upside is driven by increased adoption and potential yield generation via staking and decentralised finance platforms. Bear case for bitcoin sees prices falling to $83,000 if recessionary macro conditions materialise, while ether's downside is harder to model due to uncertainty around network activity and value accrual, the brokerage noted. Both tokens are trading above user-activity-based metrics, and Citi emphasised that sustained investor demand will be key to supporting prices through year-end and into 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/citigroup-lifts-ether-outlook-trims-bitcoin-view-shifting-investor-flows-2025-10-02/
2025-10-02 05:28
JAKARTA, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Miner Freeport Indonesia said on Thursday that the search for five missing workers at the Grasberg copper and gold mine was still ongoing, more than three weeks after a deadly mud flow disaster at the site. Around 800,000 metric tons of wet material flooded the mine on September 8, trapping seven workers. Two bodies have since been recovered. Sign up here. Operator Freeport-McMoRan has already declared force majeure at the mine and lowered its sales estimates. "The search for our five colleagues who are still missing continues relentlessly," Katri Krisnati, a Freeport Indonesia spokeperson said in a statement. "This high-risk rescue process also faces significant challenges due to the movement of wet material," the statement added. Rescuers excavated two access routes and are deploying heavy equipment with remote control systems, as the search area deepens and air circulation becomes more limited, Freeport said. The company did not immediately respond to a question about the condition of the trapped workers. The incident, as well as the suspension of all mining activities at Grasberg, has caused a jump in global copper prices. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/freeport-indonesia-says-search-five-trapped-grasberg-workers-still-ongoing-2025-10-02/
2025-10-02 05:18
Dollar gains against euro and yen Fed and private data mitigate impact of missing government reports Traders expect Fed rate cuts; Dallas Fed President cautious on further cuts NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - The dollar gained against the euro and yen on Thursday, with the greenback rebounding against the Japanese currency after four consecutive days of losses, as traders weighed the impact of a U.S. government shutdown. The shutdown leaves a gap in government data, including the closely watched monthly jobs report for September that was due to be released on Friday. Sign up here. Still, with Federal Reserve and private data continuing to be released, the void may not be as bad as feared, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. "That really misunderstands how the markets have evolved with private sector data," Chandler said. "I don't think that either the market nor the Fed is flying blind." A Chicago Fed report on Thursday, which combines private and available public data, estimated the September jobless rate was 4.3%, the same as in August and evidence that a feared rapid rise in unemployment had not yet begun. But details of the report, along with other data, pointed to ongoing sluggishness in the labor market. The dollar fell on Wednesday after the ADP National Employment report showed private payrolls decreased by 32,000 in September, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates two more times this year. But the currency retraced that move on Thursday. "A lot of people thought that with the government closing, the dollar would sell off. And I think that people got caught leaning the wrong way, and now are being forced out of positions," Chandler said. The dollar index was last up 0.13% on the day at 97.86. The euro fell 0.09% to $1.1719. Traders see a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s October meeting as almost certain and are pricing in a 90% probability of an additional cut in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan on Thursday said the U.S. central bank appropriately cut rates last month to guard against the risk of a sharp deterioration in the job market, but said that so far the cooling has been gradual and signaled she is not eager to cut rates further. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.08% to 147.17. Traders are watching this weekend’s election to lead Japan's ruling party for signs on how fiscal policy will influence the currency. Sterling weakened 0.25% to $1.3443. Traders have started to assess the impact the UK November budget will have on the economy and sterling. "In the UK there's a focus on the fiscal situation," said Eric Theoret, FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 2.24% to $120,218. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dollar-gains-supreme-court-allows-feds-cook-stay-job-now-2025-10-02/
2025-10-02 05:08
LITTLETON, Colorado, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Italy's enduring economic malaise is resulting in the lowest emissions from its power sector in decades. But climate activists should beware that planned measures to boost the economy could trigger a swift U-turn in pollution trends. Over a decade of economic stagnation has seen Italy's economic growth fall far behind that of regional rivals, resulting in steadily declining goods output and exports and lower power consumption by many of the country's businesses. Sign up here. Lower power demand from industry has in turn allowed Italy's utilities to curb fossil fuel-fired power output and cut power sector emissions to historic lows in what was formerly a top-10 polluting nation. In response to the enduring economic quandary, though, the government is rolling out stimulus measures aimed at reviving industrial activity that will likely trigger higher power generation and emissions in the world's eighth-largest economy. LOSING GROUND High public debt levels, rising labour costs, a stifling bureaucracy and a declining population have resulted in Italy's economy stagnating since the 2008 financial crisis, while Europe's overall economy has expanded by more than 20%. Italy's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 is roughly flat compared to 2008, at around $2.4 trillion, data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows. Over that same time span, Germany's economy expanded by close to 25%, France's economy by 10%, and the overall economy of the European Union by 22%. Due to hefty public debt levels - the highest among major European economies - alongside strict European Union rules over currency adjustments, Italy's government has so far been restricted in terms of intervention options. This has left industry fending for itself and resulted in a steep decline in the output of durable goods such as cars and machinery that had previously been major drivers of Italy's economy. POWERING DOWN On top of the limited government help, Italy's industries have also had to contend with a drastic upheaval to local natural gas markets in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and some of the highest power costs in Europe. Italy gets over 40% of its electricity from gas-fired power plants and secures over 90% of its gas supplies from imports, according to data from the Energy Institute. This gas-heavy slant to its energy system has resulted in a steep rise in Italy's wholesale power costs, which have averaged around 32% more than those in Germany and France and 70% more than those in Spain since 2022, data from LSEG shows. Such sharply higher power costs have further undermined the competitiveness of Italy-based businesses, and resulted in a historic decline in overall power demand in the country as industries curtailed output. Between 2008 and 2024, Italy's total electricity output declined by 15% to around 265 terawatt hours, data from Ember shows. Fossil fuel-fired electricity production dropped by 47% between 2008 and 2024, while output from clean energy sources rose by 124%. CLEAN GROWTH? The rise in clean electricity supplies - driven mainly by surges in solar and wind power output - has resulted in Italy's power system emissions falling by 50% between 2008 and 2024, to around 76 million tons of carbon dioxide, Ember data shows. Any sustained upturn in overall economic activity, however, will require utilities to boost output from fossil fuel plants, as renewable energy supplies remain too patchy to properly support a consistent rise in total energy demand. What's more, many of the economic stimulus measures being pursued are targeted at building Italy's infrastructure, on the assumption that construction of road, rail, power and tunnel systems will send positive ripples throughout the economy. Yet such projects require the energy-intensive production of steel and cement, which not only require higher volumes of industrial power supplies but also emit substantial amounts of emissions themselves. Further development of Italy's clean energy supplies is also targeted in government infrastructure plans, including large battery energy storage projects in northern Italy, new wind farms along southern regions, and the country's largest solar park in the countryside north of Rome. Once completed, those projects will help utilities make further cuts to their dependence on gas and coal for power, and may help limit any forthcoming rebounds in power emissions. But over the near term at least, the expected coordinated rise in industrial activity aimed at boosting economic growth will likely also lift Italy's emissions, and snap the recent trend of steadily falling pollution. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/italys-economic-woes-have-climate-upside-now-2025-10-02/
