2025-10-01 14:32

BENGALURU, October 1 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar, under pressure since the start of the year, may struggle to find its footing against most major currencies over the coming 12 months, according to a Reuters poll of FX strategists who said the already crowded short U.S. dollar trade will remain. Against the backdrop of rising U.S. fiscal deficit and worries that the Federal Reserve's independence was eroding, global investors have dumped the dollar for other major currencies and assets like gold which has surged more than 47% this year, setting record highs, on safe-haven demand. Sign up here. "The U.S. fiscal situation is this ongoing 800-pound gorilla of the markets, that special status means you can’t just go into other currencies - you go into gold," said John Hardy, head of FX strategy at Saxo Bank. "Gold is telling you what people think of fiscal pressure...people recognize nobody has a clean shirt. Everyone’s running on a dirty shirt." This has weakened the greenback by about 10% for the year, a trend expected to continue as the Fed is forecast to ease policy further to stave off weakness in the labour market. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is likely done with cutting interest rates. U.S. non-farm payrolls increased only 22,000 in August. While a separate Reuters poll showed the world's largest economy probably created 50,000 jobs in September, the U.S. government shutdown which came into effect on Wednesday will delay the jobs report markets were eagerly waiting for. Still, the overall outlook for the dollar was to stay weak in the near term. "I'd probably stay out of the dollar unless I'm being tactical," said Dan Tobon, head of G10 FX strategy at Citi. A near 75% majority of analysts, 30 of 41, who answered a separate question in the Reuters September 26-October 1 poll expected the net short dollar position to increase or the current positioning to not change much by the end of October. Latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed the short-dollar trade which began in April of this year was firmly in place. "The dollar can weaken further over the next six to 12 months as the Fed continues to cut rates while other major central banks like the ECB indicate they're close to or at the end of their rate cycle," said Lee Hardman, senior currency analyst at MUFG. "The dollar weakened a bit in response to the shutdown, but in terms of the big picture I don't think it changes a great deal. For now, I think the market's just got to assume its status quo and the Fed will remain on track to cut rates at the end of this month, even if they don't have data over the next week or two to analyze." On September 17 the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% and indicated more cuts would follow at meetings in October and December. Interest rate futures are pricing in a 95% chance of a cut in October, per the CME FedWatch Tool. The poll of nearly 80 forex strategists showed the dollar weakening against all major currencies over the next three, six and 12 months. A more than 70% majority of analysts, 33 of 45, who answered an additional question said the U.S. dollar was more likely to end 2025 weaker than they expected rather than stronger. Twelve said stronger. The euro , which has gained more than 13% against the dollar for the year, was expected to strengthen 1.5%-3.0% to trade around $1.19, $1.20 and $1.21 in the next three, six and 12 months respectively. Among other major currencies, the Japanese yen was predicted to gain around 6% in a year to 139/dollar and the Aussie and the Kiwi dollars were expected to gain about 4.0%-6.0%. (Other stories from the October foreign exchange poll) https://www.reuters.com/business/dollar-faces-prolonged-weakness-amid-fed-rate-cuts-2025-10-01/

2025-10-01 13:17

NEW YORK, Oct 1 (Reuters) - U.S. private payrolls unexpectedly fell in September, suggesting a weakening in labor market conditions. Private employment fell by 32,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 3,000 decrease in August, the ADP National Employment Report showed on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing 50,000 following a previously reported 54,000 advance in August. Sign up here. In the absence of data from government agencies due to the current shutdown, investors may have to put a greater reliance on alternative data sources such as ADP. MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: S&P E-minis briefly extended declines and were last down 28.25 points, or 0.42%. BONDS: Treasury yields fell, with the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year note down 4.2 basis points to 4.108% and the two-year note yield off 5.9 basis points to 3.545%. FOREX: The dollar index weakened further and was last down 0.28% to 97.56. COMMENTS: OLIVER PURSCHE, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, ADVISOR, WEALTHSPIRE ADVISORS, WESTPORT, CONNECTICUT: ""With the ADP number, we continue to see signs of a weakening labor market. We continue to see signs of a consumer pulling back slightly. So, if you're an investor, you have to pay attention to that, knowing that it's not a trend until it is a trend - it's too early, but certainly there are red flags out there. If you dig into the data, it has still been mostly a lack of hiring by large companies who seem to be benefitting from AI-related productivity increases, whereas small- and mid-sized businesses are still hiring at a reasonably good pace." MATTHEW MISKIN, CO-CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, MANULIFE JOHN HANCOCK INVESTMENTS, BOSTON: “This is another data point amid a laundry list of weak labor market data.” “However you want to look at it... it’s a weakening labor market and the Fed is likely to continue on their cutting path through year end in our view. Not having other data points does make this harder for the Fed.” PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK: “This was a crucial report because the government is probably not going to be reporting this Friday. So, the markets are going to look at this very carefully. “So, the private sector lost 32,000 jobs last month. That's rather significant and this is a good indication that the labor market is continuing to weaken. And when we do get the first glimpse of the government report, we'll probably see a negative figure such as this, and that obviously confirms that the job market is weakening. “Ordinarily the market shrugs ADP numbers, but they have been pretty much consistent in showing trends. “I don't expect (the shutdown) to be long-lasting. But if the shutdown lasts a few weeks, let's say two or three weeks – which I don't think will happen - but if it should, that puts the Federal Reserve in a big bind. And if these numbers are accurate, the Fed is likely to become more aggressive. “But the market is likely to continue in a bullish trend in the fourth quarter and that's due to third quarter earnings that will be coming out in the next ten or twelve days. It’s probably going to be another positive session, another positive season. So I think the market will continue climbing on that.” WILL COMPERNOLLE, MACRO STRATEGIST, FHN FINANCIAL, CHICAGO: “They (ADP) revised their methodology sometime during the pandemic, and even before that I didn't find it was a very reliable predictor. But now, because the revisions to the BLS data have been quite significant, it could be that people are finding the ADP data to be just as good as the initial BLS prints.” “I think the BLS has a much bigger universe that they cover than ADP and so it's authoritative in that way. But also it's authoritative because it's what the Fed is going to consider the most reliable. And so, if there are conflicting signals between ADP and BLS, BLS takes the cake. Even though they know that it's susceptible to revisions, that's what they're going to work off of.” https://www.reuters.com/business/view-us-private-payrolls-fall-september-2025-10-01/

2025-10-01 12:47

WARSAW, Oct 1 (Reuters) - A Polish court decided on Wednesday that the Ukrainian diver wanted by Berlin over his alleged involvement in explosions which damaged the Nord Stream gas pipeline, must be kept in custody while a decision is made on whether to transfer him to Germany. Described by both Moscow and the West as an act of sabotage, the explosions marked an escalation in the Ukraine conflict and squeezed energy supplies on the continent. No one has taken responsibility for the blasts and Ukraine has denied any role. Sign up here. Volodymyr Z. was detained near Warsaw on Tuesday. He will now be kept in custody for seven days. Germany's top prosecutors' office said Polish police had acted upon a European arrest warrant that it had issued. Its statement said the diver was one of a group of people who were suspected of renting a sailing yacht in the German Baltic Sea port of Rostock and planting explosives on the pipelines, which run from Russia to Germany, near the Danish island of Bornholm in September 2022. He faces accusations of conspiring to commit an explosives attack and of "anti-constitutional sabotage", the German prosecutors added. In August, Italian police arrested a Ukrainian man suspected of coordinating the attacks. That man, identified only as Serhii K., plans to take his fight against extradition to Italy's highest court after a lower court ordered his transfer to Germany, his legal team said. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polish-court-says-ukrainian-wanted-nord-stream-case-must-remain-custody-2025-10-01/

2025-10-01 12:41

SOCHI, Russia, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Wednesday that the situation with supply of fuel on the domestic market is under control on the whole, while some regions are experiencing shortages of the fuel. Several regions in Russia reported shortages of certain popular types of gasoline, including in the country's far east, Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014, as well as Nizhny Novgorod, east of Moscow. Sign up here. Ukraine has knocked out chunks of Russia's refining capacity via drone attacks. Russia is the world's third-biggest oil producer after the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. "We are witnessing some problems with supplies across some regions, while the energy ministry and the regions are jointly solving the problems in manual mode," Novak told reporters. To ensure supply on the domestic fuel market, the government has introduced diesel exports ban for traders and extended the export restrictions for gasoline until the end of the year. Novak also said that some oil refineries are being modernised and will be put into operations this and next year, which will ensure fuel supply. "If supply exceeds demand, we will certainly open up export markets," Novak said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-novak-situation-with-domestic-fuel-supply-is-under-control-2025-10-01/

2025-10-01 12:19

Europe's top forecaster collects 800 million observations a day Access to quality data is central part of managing risks Will provide AI forecasting support for developing countries COPENHAGEN, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Europe's top weather forecaster said on Wednesday it had opened access to real-time data in a move that will support early warning systems for extreme weather events across the globe. As climate change drives more frequent and intense weather, from heatwaves to floods and storms, getting access to quality data remains a central part of efforts to understand and manage the risks. Sign up here. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, backed by 35 mostly European countries, collects 800 million observations a day to help predict the weather, and oversees one of the world's largest meteorological data archives. As part of a regional push by some European countries to move to open data, the centre will make available about 16 times as much data in an unrestricted fashion as it does currently, but retain data service charges for users who take large volumes, its data policy lead said. As the world gears up for the next round of climate talks in Brazil in November, adapting to climate extremes and getting data to those most impacted so they can better prepare remains a key need for developing countries. Against this backdrop, the centre said it would also waive service fees to support some early warning forecasting for members of the World Meteorological Organization and would see how AI forecasts could assist developing countries with less access to their own national data or processing. "If you have this disruptive technology, there's always the danger that countries that are less well-resourced get left behind," Florian Pappenberger, the director-general-elect for the centre, said. “We're aware that there's a large part of the globe where accessing machine learning forecasts is challenging." https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/forecaster-opens-access-real-time-data-boost-extreme-weather-warnings-2025-10-01/

2025-10-01 12:09

KYIV, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Ukraine's state energy firm Naftogaz signed a 300 million euro ($352 million) loan deal with the European Investment Bank for gas purchases ahead of the winter heating season, the company said on Wednesday. Naftogaz has stepped up efforts to secure additional funding to purchase sufficient gas to get Ukraine through winter after Russian strikes on production facilities cut domestic output by 40%. Sign up here. As part of the agreement, Naftogaz pledged to reinvest an amount equivalent to the EIB loan into renewable energy and decarbonisation projects. "300 million euro from the EIB is substantial and practical support that will help us guarantee the country’s energy resilience ahead of the winter," said Naftogaz CEO Sergii Koretskyi. He said that the company was pumping gas into underground storage for winter as planned, and that its storage targets are now about 95-98% met. The government has said Ukraine needs at least 13.2 billion cubic metres of gas for the 2025/26 heating season which starts in mid-October. The loan will allow the purchase of around 0.6 billion cubic metres of gas, Naftogaz said. Ukraine was forced to start importing gas back in the spring of 2025, due to attacks by hundreds of drones and missiles targeting the country's production facilities. Koretskyi says that gas purchased with the loan can be of any origin except Russian. He said that this year Naftogaz significantly increased imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), which accounted for 8% of total imports. Koretskyi said the company had purchased 0.5 billion cubic metres of U.S. LNG, most of which has already been delivered to the country. ($1 = 0.8516 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraines-naftogaz-gets-300-million-euro-loan-gas-purchases-winter-2025-10-01/