2025-09-30 05:25
US stocks, European stocks muted on US government shutdown risks Oil prices fall on expected OPEC+ production increase Gold falls from record highs, set for best month since 2020 NEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Caution took hold of world markets on Tuesday, with the dollar and equities gyrating in choppy trade and gold briefly hitting a record high on concern a likely U.S. government shutdown could delay key jobs data. President Donald Trump said the United States is probably headed towards its 15th government shutdown since 1981, and that his administration could make irreversible changes in such a scenario. Sign up here. The dollar was broadly weaker while U.S. stocks managed to erase early losses and close slightly higher, as investors prepared for a to begin once a midnight deadline to craft a new funding deal has passed. PROSPECT OF U.S. SHUTDOWN PUTS SPOTLIGHT ON JOBS A government closure would delay the issue this Friday of key employment numbers, putting the spotlight on Tuesday's JOLTS report from the Department of Labor which showed that U.S. job openings increased marginally in August while hiring declined. This was consistent with lackluster labor market conditions that could allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again next month despite resilient consumer spending. "A full government shutdown on October 1 appears increasingly likely," said Monica Guerra, head of U.S. policy at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. U.S. stocks nursed modest losses for most of the day before eking out gains in the final hours of trade. The S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab inched up 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab gained 0.3%. Wall Street's gains on Tuesday capped a spectacular month of performance for U.S. stocks. The S&P 500's September performance - a gain of 3.5% - was the best in any September since 2010. The late spurt in U.S. stocks helped to lift the MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab 0.4% higher. Across the Atlantic, the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab also reversed earlier losses to rise 0.5%, helped by gains in industrial and healthcare stocks, while Japan's Nikkei closed down 0.25% (.N225) , opens new tab. For the month, the STOXX 600 was up 1%, its best monthly performance since May. "We've actually just decided to increase our weightings in equities further," said Shaniel Ramjee, co-head of multi-asset at Pictet Asset Management. "The earnings picture has recovered quite materially at the same time that global central banks are still cutting interest rates and global growth is fine." Australia's dollar added to gains after the central bank held policy rates unchanged, as widely expected. Oil prices fell more than 1% on prospects of greater production by OPEC+, while China's manufacturing activity shrank for a sixth month in September. A SHINING MONTH FOR GOLD Risks of a shutdown added to gold's stunning rally. It briefly hit a record high of $3,871.45 per ounce before trading lower on the day. It has gained more than 10% in September, on track for its biggest monthly percentage gain since July 2020. Meanwhile the dollar was down 0.5% at 147.9 yen , the euro was flat at $1.17355, and the Swiss franc and pound were a touch firmer against the dollar , . The dollar index was last down 0.1% on the day and set to end September little changed on the month. The yen could emerge as an outperformer as a hedge to a U.S. government shutdown, ING currency analysts said in a note. The September employment report due Friday is considered key to the Fed's calculations for the timing of rate cuts. A protracted government closure could leave the Fed flying blind on the economy when it meets on October 29, however. China's purchasing managers' index rose to 49.8 in September from 49.4 in August, below the 50-mark separating growth from contraction. It suggested producers are waiting for further stimulus to boost domestic demand, as well as clarity on a U.S. trade deal. China's blue-chip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) , opens new tab rose almost 0.5%, for a fifth straight month of gains and its longest such streak since October 2017. The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate steady at 3.60%, saying recent data suggested inflation might be higher than forecast in the third quarter and that the economic outlook remained uncertain. In Europe, data showing inflation rising in four key German states had limited market impact. Oil stayed weaker due to an anticipated production increase by OPEC+ and the resumption of oil exports from Iraq's Kurdistan region. Brent slipped 1.3% to $67.10 per barrel and U.S. crude fell 1.5% to $62.51. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-09-30/
2025-09-30 05:05
Shutdown could delay jobs report, muddying Fed policy path Aussie up after RBA stands pat, cautious on inflation Japanese yen may benefit from U.S. shutdown NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The dollar fell on Tuesday following softer-than-expected economic data, as investors awaited a likely U.S. government shutdown that could disrupt the release of the monthly nonfarm payrolls report this week. Government funding expires at midnight on Tuesday (0400 GMT) unless Republicans and Democrats agree to a last-minute interim deal. Sign up here. "The shutdown is pretty much well-priced in by the market," said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products, North America, at Moneycorp in New Jersey. "The question is how long the shutdown is going to be - if it's a few days as the market seems to be expecting at the moment, or is it actually going to prolong into something bigger?" U.S. President Donald Trump warned congressional Democrats on Tuesday that letting the federal government shut down at midnight would allow his administration to take "irreversible" actions including shutting down programs important to them. The U.S. Labor and Commerce departments said their statistics agencies would halt data releases in the event of a partial shutdown, including closely watched employment data for September. The payrolls report, due Friday, is crucial for Federal Reserve decision-making, so a delay could generate extra market volatility, as uncertainty among investors increases. "The logic is that a government shutdown could lead to a more dovish Fed," said Elias Haddad, senior markets strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman in a research note. "If a shutdown is brief, the Fed will ignore it. However, a prolonged shutdown (more than two weeks), increases the downside risk to growth and raises the likelihood of a more accommodative Fed." U.S. rate futures are pricing in 45 basis points of easing this year, most likely starting with 25 bp in October, with a strong chance of a second by year-end. In afternoon trading, the dollar fell 0.5% against the yen to 147.85, extending its decline after a mixed Bureau of Labor Statistics' Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS. On the quarter, the dollar rose 2.7%, the best quarterly gains since October 2024. The report showed U.S. job openings increased marginally in August while hiring declined, consistent with a softening labor market. Job openings, a measure of labor demand, rose 19,000 to 7.227 million by the last day of August. Hiring fell 114,000 to 5.126 million in August. Layoffs dropped 62,000 to 1.725 million. The dollar index slid 0.1% to 97.78 , but ended the September quarter 1.1% higher, the biggest quarterly advance since January. The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1740 , but was down 0.4%, the biggest quarterly loss since October 2024. The greenback was also weighed down by the Conference Board's consumer confidence index, which dropped 3.6 points to 94.2 this month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a drop to 96.0. For the yen, investors considered the Bank of Japan's summary of opinions from its September meeting, at which the possibility of a near-term rate hike was discussed. Markets show traders are placing a 60% chance on a December rate hike. Strategists at ING say selling dollar for yen could prove popular should the U.S. shutdown materialize. The dollar has risen 0.7% against the yen this month, but has fallen nearly 6% so far in 2025, as investors believe Japanese rates are likely to slowly rise, while those in the United States fall. "A lower dollar/yen may well remain the favourite trade during the shutdown. It lost 1.5% during the 2018-19 shutdown, and is currently trading 1% above its short-term fair value, according to our model," ING FX strategist Francesco Pesole said. The Australian dollar was last up 0.6% at US$0.6615 after the Reserve Bank of Australia, which has lowered borrowing costs three times this year, held rates steady as expected. The bank said recent data suggested third-quarter inflation might be higher than expected and the economic outlook remained uncertain. The Aussie was up 0.5% in the third quarter. In Europe, sterling shrugged off data that showed Britain's economic growth slowed to 0.3% between April and June this year, while the current account deficit grew in the three months to the end of June far more than expected to the equivalent of 3.8% of gross domestic product, up from 2.8% in the first quarter of 2025. The pound was last up 0.1% against the dollar at $1.3450 and a touch higher against the euro , which was down 0.2% at 87.28 pence. On the quarter, sterling dropped 2% versus the greenback, its worst quarterly showing since October last year. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dollar-soft-possible-us-shutdown-jobs-report-delay-hurt-sentiment-2025-09-30/
2025-09-30 05:02
SYDNEY, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank on Tuesday left its cash rate steady as expected at 3.60%, saying recent data suggested inflation might be higher than forecast in the third quarter and the economic outlook remained uncertain. Wrapping up a two-day policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia said the board judged it was appropriate to remain cautious on policy, but was well placed to respond to international developments. Sign up here. Markets had seen scant chance of a further easing this week following a quarter-point cut in August, while a high reading on monthly consumer prices had argued for waiting for the full third-quarter inflation report due in late October. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australias-central-bank-holds-rates-cautious-inflation-2025-09-30/
2025-09-30 04:41
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rocky Swift With a U.S. government shutdown and the imposition of sweeping tariffs looming, President Donald Trump knew just what markets needed. Sign up here. More tariffs. In what's becoming a regular ritual, Asian markets were the first to digest overnight announcements from the White House on new U.S. import duties, this time on bathroom vanities, lumber, cabinets, and other goods. Trump's proclamation cited "national defence" for the tariffs on foreign furniture, due to start on October 14 and following duties on trucks and drugs that go into effect on Wednesday. And there has yet to be a breakthrough in talks between Trump and congressional Democrats to forestall a government shutdown the same day. Anxiety about a shutdown pushed safe-haven gold to a fresh record. Data out of China and Japan hinted at the toll that trade uncertainty is wrecking on the region's biggest economies. China's manufacturing activity shrank for a sixth month in September, official data showed, while a separate report showed Japan's factory output fell more than expected in August. The Australian dollar added slightly to gains on the day after the nation's central bank held rates steady, as widely expected, and said uncertainty in the global economy remains elevated. Asian share markets took it all in stride, with MSCI broadest ex-Japan gauge adding to its more than 5% jump in September, the best in a year. If Washington does go dark, it would halt the release on Friday of all-important non-farm payrolls data for September, a key input for the timing of further easing by the Federal Reserve. That puts the spotlight on other U.S. labour reports, including today's JOLTS data. Analysts expect the figures to show job openings held firm at around 7.18 million in August. Equity contracts pointed to an opening in the red for European markets. Pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures were down 0.07%, German DAX futures slid 0.06%, and FTSE futures edged 0.08% lower. U.S. futures, the S&P 500 e-minis , were flat. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday: - U.S. consumer confidence for September, JOLTS job openings for August - Flash CPIs for Germany, France - British Q2 GDP - Speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Boston Fed President Susan Collins https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-09-30/
2025-09-30 03:06
MUMBAI, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to hover near its lifetime low at open on Tuesday, dragged by weakness across Asia and persistent U.S. trade tensions that have strained New Delhi’s economic ties with Washington. Non-deliverable forwards indicated the rupee would open at 88.74–88.78 to the dollar, little changed from Monday’s 88.76 level and near the lifetime trough of 88.7975 struck last week. Sign up here. Persistent strain on the rupee has built up in recent weeks, driven by the drag from U.S.-India trade frictions. Washington’s 50% punitive tariffs on Indian goods and the hike in H-1B visa fees, which is expected to hit India harder than any other country, have driven foreign investors to pull money out of equities. Last week, foreign investors pulled out $1.8 billion, with preliminary data showing more than $300 million sold on Monday. "Most were thinking the 50% tariff would come down to 25% through talks - looks like that’s not happening anytime soon," a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. "Then you throw in the H-1B visa news, and the pick up in equity outflows," keeping the rupee under persistent strain, he added. The Reserve Bank of India has been stepping in to slow the rupee's slide without which, bankers say, the Indian currency would have fallen much more. ASIA FALTERS At Tuesday’s open, the rupee faces pressure from weaker Asian peers and a modest rise in the dollar index. Investors are wary of a potential U.S. government shutdown, which could delay key economic data, including this week’s key jobs report. Economists at Morgan Stanley expect each week of a shutdown to shave about 10 basis points off real U.S. GDP. U.S. long maturity Treasuries rallied on Monday. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 88.9; onshore one-month forward premium at 15.5 paise ** Dollar index up at 98.00 ** Brent crude futures down 0.6% at $67.6 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.14% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $561.2mln worth of Indian shares on Sep. 28 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $50.5mln worth of Indian bonds on Sep. 28 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-pinned-near-all-time-low-weak-asia-enduring-us-trade-troubles-2025-09-30/
2025-09-30 02:06
SINGAPORE, Sept 30 (Reuters) - A top U.S. securities regulator known for her supportive stance on the cryptocurrency industry said on Tuesday that the Securities and Exchange Commission is open to working with industry participants on tokenising products. "We are willing to work with people who want to tokenise, we urge them to come talk to us," said Hester Peirce, a Republican commissioner on the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), who was speaking virtually at the Digital Assets Summit in Singapore. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-sec-commissioner-says-regulator-willing-work-with-those-who-want-tokenise-2025-09-30/
