2025-09-29 20:42

Indexes close up: Dow 0.15%, S&P 500 0.26%, Nasdaq 0.48% Cannabis stocks surge after Trump endorses cannabidiol Electronic Arts up after $55 billion take-private deal Lam Research, AppLovin rally after bullish analyst notes Sept 29 (Reuters) - Wall Street indexes closed up on Monday with the Nasdaq leading gains as investors bought heavyweight technology stocks and shrugged off the uncertainty of a potential U.S. government shutdown and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve officials. Technology provided the benchmark S&P's biggest boost as investors bet on growth from artificial intelligence and expectations that the Fed will keep cutting interest rates as it grapples with persistent inflation concerns and labor market uncertainties. Sign up here. A major focus for Wall Street this week is a standoff between Republicans and Democrats over funding that has raised the prospect of a government shutdown beginning Wednesday, the first day of the U.S. government's new fiscal year. Even as the Labor Department prepared for a potential delay of its September jobs report in the event of a shutdown, this did not seem to be the key market driver, said Lindsey Bell, chief strategist at 248 Ventures in Charlotte, North Carolina. "Investors are clinging to the positives," Bell said, pointing to rate easing hopes and signs of economic resilience from recent releases including housing market and consumer spending data. "The market is not going to shoot to the moon, because this is a risk. But investors can look through the potential for a shutdown, because if it does occur it will likely be resolved quickly and the market can resume focusing on the things that do matter, like earnings, monetary policy and AI investments." While shutdowns have not tended to impact corporate results historically, the imminent threat may have limited gains and kept trading volume light on Monday, according to Burns McKinney, portfolio manager and NFJ Investment Group in Dallas, Texas. "The only reason it would truly move markets is if it affects the bottom line. Historically speaking, government shutdowns are brief and they don't have an impact on profitability so investors tend to be forward-looking," said McKinney. "It's just like smoke on a racetrack. They just keep the wheels straight, manage through the stress and move forward through the smoke." The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 68.78 points, or 0.15%, to 46,316.07, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab gained 17.51 points, or 0.26%, to 6,661.21 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab gained 107.09 points, or 0.48%, to 22,591.15. Investors were also monitoring Fed policymakers' commentary for any signs of concern over the potential loss of economic visibility should a shutdown materialize. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, among the most hawkish Fed officials and not a voter on policy this year, said on Monday the central bank needed to maintain restrictive monetary policy to cool inflation. St. Louis Federal Reserve President Alberto Musalem, a voter on rates this year, said he was open to further interest rate cuts but that the Fed must be cautious and keep rates high enough to continue to lean against inflation, which remains roughly a percentage point above the central bank's 2% target. Traders, however, are pricing in a roughly 89% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the next Fed meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch , opens new tab tool. Among the S&P 500's 11 major industry sectors, nine advanced. With oil prices falling more than 3%, the energy sector (.SPNY) , opens new tab was the biggest laggard, ending down 1.9%. Consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) , opens new tab was the biggest percentage gainer, adding 0.6%. But for index point boosts, technology (.SPLRCT) , opens new tab was the clear leader with big pushes from AI chip leader Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab, up 2%, and Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab, which added 0.6%. Electronic Arts (EA.O) , opens new tab shares rallied 4.5% after the game publisher agreed to be taken private in a $55 billion deal, fueling hopes for broader deal prospects, said Bell of 248 Ventures, who saw the transaction as "confirmation that the M&A market is open." Lam Research (LRCX.O) , opens new tab shares advanced 2% after Deutsche Bank upgraded the rating on the chip-making equipment firm to "buy" from "hold." AppLovin (APP.O) , opens new tab set a fresh record high before closing up 6.3% at $712.36, also providing one of the biggest lifts for the S&P 500. Morgan Stanley raised the target price on the stock to $750 from $480. After U.S. President Donald Trump shared a video on Sunday promoting the health benefits of hemp-derived cannabidiol, U.S.-listed shares of cannabis-related companies rose. Canopy Growth rallied 17% to $1.57 while Cronos Group rose almost 13% to $2.97 and Tilray Brands (TLRY.O) , opens new tab jumped 60.9% to $1.85. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.38-to-1 ratio on the NYSE where there were 337 new highs and 80 new lows. The S&P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and six new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 116 new highs and 74 new lows. On the Nasdaq, 2,525 stocks rose and 2,118 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.19-to-1 ratio. On U.S. exchanges about 17.91 billion shares changed hands compared with the 18.25 billion average from the last 20 sessions. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-futures-stronger-footing-government-shutdown-concerns-take-center-2025-09-29/

2025-09-29 20:15

White House meeting produces no easy solution Democrats want health care issues addressed in bill Midnight Tuesday deadline for short-term deal Republicans insist on need for narrow spending bill WASHINGTON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump and his Democratic opponents appeared to make little progress at a White House meeting aimed at heading off a government shutdown that could disrupt a wide range of services as soon as Wednesday. Both sides emerged from the meeting saying the other would be at fault if Congress fails to extend government funding beyond a Tuesday midnight deadline (0400 GMT Wednesday). Sign up here. "I think we're headed to a shutdown," Vice President JD Vance said. Democrats say any agreement to extend that deadline must also preserve expiring health benefits, while Trump's Republicans insist health and government funding must be dealt with as separate issues. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said the two sides "have very large differences." If Congress does not act, thousands of federal government workers could be furloughed, from NASA to the national parks, and a wide range of services would be disrupted. Federal courts might have to close and grants for small businesses could be delayed. Budget standoffs have become relatively routine in Washington over the past 15 years and are often resolved at the last minute. But Trump's willingness to override or ignore spending laws passed by Congress has injected a new dimension of uncertainty. Trump has refused to spend billions of dollars approved by Congress and is threatening to extend his purge of the federal workforce if Congress allows the government to shut down. Only a handful of agencies have so far published plans detailing how they would proceed in the event of a shutdown. The White House released an executive order Monday evening extending the life of more than 20 federal advisory committees through 2027. It remains unclear how these committees - which advise the president in areas including trade and national security - will be funded amid ongoing shutdown uncertainty. FIGHT ABOUT SMALL SLICE OF BUDGET At issue is $1.7 trillion in "discretionary" spending that funds agency operations, which amounts to roughly one-quarter of the government's total $7 trillion budget. Much of the remainder goes to health and retirement programs and interest payments on the growing $37.5 trillion debt. Prior to the White House meeting, Democrats floated a plan that would extend current funding for seven to 10 days, according to Democratic sources, which could buy time to hammer out a more permanent agreement. That is shorter than the timeline backed by Republicans, which would extend funding to November 21. After returning to the Capitol, Schumer told reporters he would not accept a shorter funding bill. Senate Republican Leader John Thune sought to pile pressure on Democrats by scheduling a Tuesday vote on the Republican bill, which has already failed once in the Senate. There have been 14 partial government shutdowns since 1981, most lasting just a few days. The most recent was also the longest, lasting 35 days in 2018 and 2019 due to a dispute over immigration during Trump's first term. This time healthcare is at issue. Roughly 24 million Americans who get coverage through the Affordable Care Act will see their costs rise if Congress does not extend temporary tax breaks due to expire at the end of this year. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Congress needs to make those tax breaks permanent now because higher health insurance premiums are being finalized and the new signup period starts November 1. "We believe that simply accepting the Republican plan to continue to assault and gut healthcare is unacceptable," Jeffries said at a Monday press conference. Republicans say they are willing to consider the issue, but not as part of a temporary spending patch. "They had some ideas that I actually thought were reasonable, and they had some ideas that the president thought was reasonable. What's not reasonable is to hold those ideas as leverage and to shut down the government," Vance said. Democrats want to energize their voting base ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, when control of Congress will be at stake, and have broadly lined up behind the healthcare push. But Democratic aides have privately expressed concerns that a shutdown could create a public backlash if Democrats do not effectively argue their case and instead come off sounding like just being opposed to whatever Trump wants - a stance Republicans like Thune have derided as "Trump Derangement Syndrome." https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-democrats-trump-set-face-off-budget-battle-that-could-trigger-govt-shutdowns-2025-09-29/

2025-09-29 20:06

US funding lapse to halt Labor, Commerce departments' data activities Prolonged shutdown could impact third-quarter US GDP estimate September jobs data, August trade and construction data among first shutdown casualties Social Security Cost of Living Adjustment may be delayed if CPI report is postponed WASHINGTON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The U.S. Labor and Commerce departments said on Monday that their statistics agencies would halt economic data releases in the event of a partial government shutdown, including closely watched employment data for September, construction spending and possibly international trade data for August. The employment report, crucial for decision-making by officials at the Federal Reserve, businesses and households, is scheduled for Friday. Government funding will expire at midnight on Tuesday unless Republicans and Democrats agree to a last-minute temporary spending deal. Sign up here. The Labor Department identified the Bureau of Labor Statistics as among the key agencies whose activities would cease during a lapse in funding. President Donald Trump was due to meet with Republican and Democratic leaders on Monday. While it would suspend some activities, the statistical agency said it would publish the August Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment report due on Wednesday. Similarly, the Commerce Department said monthly economic indicators from the U.S. Census Bureau would not be available in the event of a government shutdown. The department's Bureau of Economic Analysis would cease most services. The Census Bureau is scheduled to release U.S. construction spending data for August on Wednesday and manufacturers' shipments, inventories and orders for August on Thursday. The two agencies are scheduled to release data on August international goods and services trade on October 7. A prolonged shutdown could impact the Bureau of Economic Analysis' initial estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product due on October 30. BLS also said a prolonged shutdown could delay the release of other data. "Once funding is restored, BLS will resume normal operations and notify the public of any changes to the news release schedule on the BLS release calendar," the agency said in a statement. It was not clear whether the weekly jobless claims report would continue to be published. The data is collected by states, which run the unemployment insurance programs, but the BLS does the seasonal adjustment. CONCERNS ARE RISING OVER DATA QUALITY Possible delays publishing the employment report would come at a time when concerns are growing over the quality of government-produced economic data, long viewed as the gold standard. The BLS warned "a reduction in quality of data collected might impact the quality of future estimates produced." The BLS has suffered years of underfunding under both Republican and Democratic administrations. That situation has been worsened by mass firings, voluntary resignations, early retirements and hiring freezes, which are part of an unprecedented campaign by the Trump administration to drastically reduce the size of government. Response rates for the employment report have declined and the agency has suspended data collection for portions of the consumer price index in some areas across the country. Should September's CPI report be delayed, that could leave the Social Security Administration unable to make its annual Cost of Living Adjustment announcement, which retirees depend on to plan their budgets. https://www.reuters.com/world/labor-department-suspend-us-economic-data-releases-if-government-shuts-down-2025-09-29/

2025-09-29 20:04

Oct 3 release of US employment data set for delay in a shutdown Other data, including CPI, could be at risk depending on length of any shutdown Fed widely expected to cut rates at end-October meeting NEW YORK, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Wall Street is preparing for disruption to economic data if a looming U.S. government shutdown goes ahead, which could cause investors to rely more on alternative data or take on more defensive positions as they anticipate volatility in asset prices. The U.S. Labor Department said on Monday that economic data releases would pause in a government shutdown, amplifying investor concerns that Friday's monthly employment report would not be published as scheduled. Such a delay to the closely watched report could cause confusion for investors, including how to assess the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions. Sign up here. "A shutdown is an expected event...like the slow car crash that we're all watching happen," said Callie Cox, chief market strategist at Ritholtz Wealth Management. "There are ways to hedge this and I'm sure affected investors are already thinking about that." The Fed relies on a range of data including regular government releases to make monetary policy decisions as it seeks to balance its key economic goals of price stability and maximum employment. Markets are pricing in a quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its Oct 28-29 meeting. The central bank made such a cut earlier in September following weak employment reports. WILL THE SHUTDOWN CASCADE THROUGH MARKETS? U.S. Vice President JD Vance said late Monday he thought the government was headed for a shutdown. "If a shutdown happens and it lasts any significant amount of time... you could see a cascade effect where data really just gets pushed back and pushed back," said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of U.S. rates strategy at TD Securities. "For markets, that's a difficult thing given just the sheer amount of data dependence that the Fed is leaning on." With U.S. government funding due to expire at midnight on Tuesday, Republicans and Democrats in Congress are showing no signs they will agree to a temporary spending fix that would . Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance, said a delay in the jobs report could cause traders with Treasury derivatives positions put on ahead of the labor data to close or hedge their exposure, spurring more volatility in the market. Strategists are recommending clients prepare for both protection and opportunities as they navigate this period of uncertainty. Phil Blancato, chief market strategist at Osaic, said clients should think about increasing their fixed income allocation, buying the belly of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, hedging portfolios to mitigate volatility, and pivoting towards companies that could benefit when the impasse is resolved. "Keep a level of cash in the portfolio, five to ten percent short-term investments, that can be dry powder when" the shutdown is resolved, Blancato said. LACK OF DATA COULD CLOUD FED'S VIEW The labor market data due on Friday stand to be among the first impacted, while depending on length of a shutdown, other releases could be delayed, including the Consumer Price Index due Oct 15. During a 16-day shutdown in 2013, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published the report originally scheduled for Oct 3, on Oct 22, the fourth business day after the government’s reopening, according to economists at Nomura in a note. Once any shutdown ends, the BLS could likely publish data relatively quickly as it will likely have nearly completed the employment report by the end of September, the Nomura economists wrote last week. DATA DELAY WILL RIPPLE THROUGH WALL STREET Department of Labor spokesperson Courtney Parella said in a statement to Reuters that concerns about potential delays should be directed to Democrats in Congress, who she said are refusing to pass a "clean" continuing resolution to keep the government open. A spokesperson for Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer did not respond to a request for comment. Without data, investors will focus more on Fed officials' comments, said Adam Vos, global head of BNY Markets. "There’s a diverse set of views across the Fed, and so that could be, I guess, tricky to get a handle on exactly where that will land," Vos said. Fed Funds futures are pricing in nearly 90% odds of a quarter-point cut at the upcoming meeting, LSEG data showed. "Fewer pieces of data can cloud the Fed's view in that meeting," Cox said. "Generally, less transparency in data affects everyone in markets from the bigwigs on Wall Street to the policymakers to the average investor." Others argue it would be tougher for the Fed to justify veering from its "dot plot" of rate projections, making such a cut in October more likely. "If no data comes out, they won't really have any information to deviate in either direction from that baseline," said David Seif, chief economist for developed markets at Nomura. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-left-dark-us-data-if-shutdown-happens-2025-09-29/

2025-09-29 20:03

Sept 29 (Reuters) - Paul Atkins, chair of the U.S. markets watchdog, said on Monday the regulator is fast-tracking President Donald Trump's push to scrap quarterly earnings reports, raising transparency concerns around the potentially major shift for U.S. companies. Trump's desired change , opens new tab to the reporting standard would require listed companies to publish results semi-annually instead of the current SEC mandate for the release of financial statements every 90 days. Sign up here. The agency could release a proposal by the end of this year or in early 2026, Atkins said. In 2018, the SEC had solicited public comment on possible changes but ultimately left the current regime in place. "The president's call was timely, and so we are, you know, working to fast track it," Atkins said, speaking to reporters at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission headquarters on the sidelines of a joint roundtable with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on policy harmonization. "I'm hoping this sometime end of the year, early next year, to be able to have a proposal out and then be able to collect comment from people," he added. Trump has argued that the move, first proposed by him in 2018, would cut costs and discourage shortsightedness among publicly traded companies. The U.S. SEC at the time had said it was making his proposal a priority. This time, the agency appears fully on board, giving the proposal a better chance of succeeding as the White House takes greater control of the commission's agenda. Atkins did not lay out a timeline for the change. Some investors have cautioned that delaying financial disclosures could reduce transparency and increase market volatility, making U.S. stocks less attractive, though several have recently supported the idea. Transparency advocates also warn that it could give companies more opportunity to hide or postpone bad news. Meanwhile, investors argue that one reason U.S. stocks trade at a premium, compared with equities elsewhere, is their stricter financial reporting requirements. U.S.-listed companies did not always report financial results quarterly. The shift from semiannual to quarterly reporting was mandated by the U.S. regulator in 1970. Atkins first outlined the move in an editorial in the Financial Times earlier on Monday. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-sec-chairman-atkins-vows-fast-track-scrapping-quarterly-corporate-reports-ft-2025-09-29/

2025-09-29 19:25

Sept 29 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said on Monday that emerging signs of weakness in the labor market drove his support for cutting interest rates at the most recent central bank meeting. “It made sense to move interest rates down a little bit” and “to take a little bit of the restrictiveness out of there,” to help ensure ongoing health in the job market while still keeping some downward pressure on above-target inflation levels, Williams said during an appearance in Rochester, New York. Sign up here. Williams' comments on Monday were his first public remarks since the central bank's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee mid-month gathering that met market expectations, with officials trimming their overnight target rate range by a quarter percentage point to between 4% and 4.25%. The Fed justified its rate cut on rising risks to the job market, even as inflation remains above target. At the Fed meeting, officials penciled in more rate cuts into year-end. In his appearance, Williams did not say what he wants monetary policy to do going forward, saying the FOMC will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Williams also noted the Fed has unresolved business in dealing with high price pressures. "We still have a ways to go to get to that 2% goal. We've moved a long ways towards that," but the central bank also does not want to do "undue harm" to the Fed's other goal of keeping the job market as strong as it can be. "We have a balancing act here" between getting inflation down and supporting a job market that "has been gradually softening over the past year." When it comes to weakening job creation, "I don't want to see that go too far." At the same time, Williams noted that some of the things that were creating worry about persistently high inflation have waned. "The tariff effects have been smaller than most people thought, and there doesn't seem to be any signs of inflationary pressures building." https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/feds-williams-says-cutting-rates-aimed-bolstering-job-market-2025-09-29/