2025-09-29 10:48

Sept 29 - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. Buoyant world stock markets seem oblivious to the possibility that the U.S. government may be forced to shut down operations , opens new tab this week just as the third quarter comes to a close , opens new tab on Tuesday. But gold also raced to a new high above $3,800 an ounce as the dollar fell back once more. Republicans urge Democrats to agree to short-term bill to keep US government open Senate Democrats demanded that any legislation undo cuts to healthcare programs. With President Donald Trump due to meet top Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress on Monday to discuss extending government funding beyond month end, the most immediate impact of a shutdown could be to postpone the release of the critical September employment report that's due on Friday. In the absence of a payrolls report, markets will have to feed off the rest of the week's labor market data - starting with August job openings tomorrow - and absorb the implications of last week's consumer spending rise that catapulted U.S. GDP growth trackers to as high as 3.9%. That rate of growth and the loosest financial conditions in four years question the need for further rate cuts and a stream of Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled for Monday. U.S. stock futures are up again ahead of today's bell, with Japan underperforming overseas as the yen rose on speculation about an interest rate hike there. Today's Market Minute * Donald Trump will host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Monday, with the U.S. president pushing a Gaza peace proposal after a slew of Western leaders embraced Palestinian statehood in defiance of American and Israeli opposition. * Moldova's pro-European ruling party won a resounding victory over its Russian-leaning rival in a key parliamentary election, results showed on Monday, a major boost for the country's bid to join the EU and break away from Moscow's orbit. * China's new visa programme aimed at attracting foreign tech talent kicks off this week, a move seen boosting Beijing's fortunes in its geopolitical rivalry with Washington as a new U.S. visa policy prompts would-be applicants to scramble for alternatives. * Tech giants are ploughing money into artificial intelligence. But, writes Panmure Liberum investment strategist Joachim Klement in his latest piece for ROI, rising long-term Treasury yields could jeopardise the investment boom , opens new tab in data centres and other infrastructure. * Ukraine's repeated strikes on Russian energy infrastructure have dealt a serious blow to Moscow's vital fuel exports just as Western sanctions are tightening. But if these attacks are too successful, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso, they risk raising Trump's ire. Chart of the day Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity, rose 0.6% last month - slightly faster than forecast but enough to push the Atlanta Fed's third-quarter GDP growth estimate to a 3.9% rate from a 3.3% pace earlier. Today's events to watch (all times EDT) * U.S. August pending home sales (10:00 AM EDT); Dallas Fed manufacturing survey (10:30 AM EDT) * Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller, New York Fed President John Williams, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Atlanta Fed boss Raphael Bostic and St. Louis Fed chief Alberto Musalem all speak; European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane speaks; Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden speaks * U.S. corporate earnings: Carnival * UK finance minister Rachel Reeves speaks at ruling Labour Party annual conference * Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney visits London Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-09-29/

2025-09-29 10:15

MUMBAI, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee closed near its all-time low on Monday as lingering foreign portfolio outflows and corporate dollar demand kept up pressure on the South Asian currency. The rupee settled at 88.76 against the U.S. dollar, its weakest ever closing level and down slightly from its close at 88.7175 on Friday. The currency declined to an all-time low of 88.7975 last week. Sign up here. After starting the session with a modest uptick, the local currency drifted lower through the session, averting a sharper decline due to dollar sales by multiple state-run banks, which traders said were likely on behalf of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The RBI has frequently intervened to support the rupee over recent sessions as worries over the impact of steep U.S. tariffs on Indian goods and tighter immigration policies hurt the local currency. Concerns over further depreciation of the rupee have prompted importers to step up hedging, keeping the rupee's upticks short-lived, an FX salesperson at a foreign bank said. The rupee's weakness has persisted even as the dollar slipped broadly. On the day too, the dollar index eased 0.2% to 97.92 but this offered little comfort to the rupee. Meanwhile India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab closed nearly flat after rising early in the session. Foreign investors have net sold nearly $2 billion of local stocks so far this month, pushing up year-to-date outflows to nearly $17 billion. "Relentless FPI outflows ... combined with strong importer hedging and delta hedge demand from option sellers (who must buy USD to maintain their positions), are creating significant technical and capital pressure that is pushing the pair (USD/INR) toward new highs," said Anindya Banerjee, head of currency and commodity research at Kotak Securities. Elsewhere, Asian currencies were mostly stronger as investors awaited U.S. economic data for cues on the Federal Reserve's rate path while also keeping an eye on a looming U.S. government shutdown. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-anchored-near-record-low-outflows-corporate-dollar-demand-2025-09-29/

2025-09-29 08:00

STOCKHOLM, Sept 29 (Reuters) - A monetary policy easing cycle in Sweden that has seen eight interest rate cuts since spring last year, including a quarter-point cut last week, is probably over, minutes of the Riksbank's most recent monetary policy meeting showed on Monday. The Riksbank cut its policy rate to 1.75% from 2.00% on September 23 arguing underlying inflation was heading toward the 2.0% target - and probably lower - leaving room for rate-setters to give a sluggish economy a final boost. Sign up here. "Even though some risks remain, the arguments in favour of lowering the interest rate and thereby providing further stimulus to demand in the economy outweigh the counterarguments," Riksbank Governor Erik Thedeen said. "As I now judge the situation, this will probably be the last cut in this interest rate cycle." Sweden's central bank has been weighing above-target headline against an economy that has stuttered since the start of the year. With a final rate cut, the central bank hopes growth will now pick up, while inflation should continue on a downward path as temporary and technical factors wash out of the figures. However, the situation remains finely balanced. "One risk of today’s rate cut is that ... a policy rate of 1.75 per cent is too low, given the growth potential in the Swedish economy," Thedeen said. "If demand were to become unexpectedly strong next year, and this were to threaten price stability, we will have to start rate rises earlier than we currently plan and have expressed in the policy rate path." The Riksbank publishes its next policy decision on November 5. https://www.reuters.com/world/swedish-central-bank-done-with-easing-after-cut-minutes-meeting-show-2025-09-29/

2025-09-29 07:48

ZURICH, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank and the European Central Bank are exploring interlinking their instant payment services, Switzerland's central bank said on Monday. "This initiative supports the general goal of making cross-border payments faster, cheaper, more transparent and more accessible," the SNB said in a statement. Sign up here. The exploration phase will evaluate interlinking the Swiss Interbank Clearing (SIC) System and TIPS, the Eurosystem's TARGET Instant Payment Settlement service, the SNB said. The exploration phase will continue through 2026. Its aim is to assess the feasibility and economic viability of such an interlinking, the statement said. It would allow for cross-currency instant payments, which are payments originating in one currency area to be credited to an account in the other currency area within seconds, the SNB said. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/snb-ecb-explore-linking-up-instant-payment-systems-2025-09-29/

2025-09-29 07:30

LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Global financial messaging network SWIFT and more than 30 global banks announced on Monday they were now working "at pace" on making cross-border payments instantaneous and on a system capable of handling the various new forms of digital money. SWIFT, a key part of the world's financial architecture, said the institutions were collaborating on a blockchain-based "shared digital ledger" they see as vital for modernising international bank transactions. Sign up here. The timeline is yet to be defined, but it will initially focus on enabling real-time 24/7 cross-border payments, which should also make the process cheaper given it can currently take days. Belgium-based SWIFT also plans to build on recent pilot projects to make its systems "interoperable" with new ones now emerging for stablecoins, tokenised bank deposits and central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) being developed by the likes of China and the European Central Bank. SWIFT's main advantage is that its existing network is already usable in over 200 countries and connects more than 11,000 banks who use it to send trillions of dollars every day. U.S. President Donald Trump's son and crypto advocate Eric Trump recently described SWIFT as "antiquated", but its hope is that by adding blockchain functionality it can evolve and still provide compliance and resilience features traditional banks require. Stablecoins are rapidly moving from niche crypto instruments into the mainstream. A report by Citi last week estimated there could be up to $4 trillion worth of stablecoins in circulation by 2030, with $100 trillion of trade to be done using them a year. About 90% of the world's central banks are now exploring digital versions of their fiat currencies as they look to avoid getting left behind. SWIFT said it is envisaged that the shared digital ledger - a secure, real-time log of transactions between banks - would "record, sequence and validate transactions and enforce rules through smart contracts." The group of more than 30 global financial institutions that will help design and build the ledger include JPMorgan, HSBC, Deutsche Bank, MUFG, BNP Paribas, Santander and OCBC, as well as a number of banks from the Middle East and Africa. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/swift-top-global-banks-working-blockchain-based-overhaul-2025-09-29/

2025-09-29 07:19

Investors eye fiscal policy benefits to industries, not just AI Infrastructure, energy, healthcare, defence draw interest Fiscal stimulus seen as key to market performance MUMBAI, Sept 29 - Some of the world's biggest investors are looking beyond a boom in artificial intelligence to longer-term spending by governments tackling geopolitical, technological and demographic pressures set to reshape markets over the next few years. Asset managers are spreading bets across infrastructure, energy transition, healthcare and defence, to capitalise on fiscal stimulus from governments, even as Wall Street debates whether the AI-powered rally in stocks is sustainable. Sign up here. As concerns over some countries' ballooning fiscal debts draw attention, many investors "underestimated the impact that (stimulus) could have on real and financial assets," said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer of UBS Global Wealth Management. Hafele told the Reuters Global Markets Forum , opens new tab his firm, which oversees $4.5 trillion in assets, is "investing thematically along with what governments are doing", diversifying into areas such as power, resources, healthcare and defence. July's sweeping U.S. tax-cut and spending bill will add trillions to government debt by extending tax cuts from U.S. President Donald Trump's first term, ramping up funding for border security and defence, and trimming Medicare and Medicaid. Europe's fiscal support is just as dramatic, with sentiment boosted by Germany's 500-billion-euro ($586 billion) infrastructure fund exempt from its strict debt brake and NATO members' pledges to lift defence spending to 3.5% of GDP. "Fiscal stimulus is always a big element of the performance of the financial markets," said Antonio Cavarero, head of investments at Generali Asset Management, which manages $430 billion in assets. The magnitude and persistence of these fiscal commitments on both sides of the Atlantic were unprecedented compared to previous market cycles, he said, adding that the structural realignment they drive would last for years. "It takes time before those moneys actually percolate (through) the system ... before you see them becoming reality," Cavarero said. Nuclear power, energy infrastructure, biotech innovation and defense were industries that "cannot be ignored by the market", he added, while warning, "At some point, we will need to deal with these debts." A rise of nearly 14% this year in the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab index has largely been powered by AI-related momentum, versus more modest gains of 9.5% in Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab. But the aerospace and defence index (.SXPARO) , opens new tab of the latter has surged almost 68%, showing that fiscal priorities are lifting defence and industrial plays even in a broader market environment still dominated by AI. Saira Malik, chief investment officer at U.S. asset manager Nuveen, which manages $1.3 trillion in assets, expects equity gains to broaden beyond the U.S. tech-heavy trade to cyclical sectors, small-caps and value plays. "U.S. outperformance is not the only game in town this year, thanks to a weaker dollar," she said. Malik advised investors to stay balanced, but with a tilt toward U.S. markets. "I don't think investors should just own U.S. (assets) at the expense of everything else, but I would fully argue against betting against the U.S." Malik also sees opportunities in infrastructure, utilities and waste management, describing them as resilient and effective hedges against inflation. Both UBS and Nuveen stressed active management over passive bets. "It's less of a time for beta and more of a time for active investing," Haefele said. (Join GMF , opens new tab on LSEG Messenger: https://lseg.group/3KFHrhe , opens new tab) https://www.reuters.com/markets/wealth/investors-look-past-ai-hype-long-term-opportunities-government-spending-2025-09-29/