2025-09-25 06:19

Dollar gains with 10-year Treasury yields Stronger than expected US data eats into rate cut hopes Switzerland keeps interest rates at zero Brent futures settle slightly higher, WTI ends close to flat NEW YORK/ LONDON, Sept 25 (Reuters) - MSCI's global equities gauge lost ground while the dollar rose as investors worried that Thursday's surprisingly strong U.S. economic data would make the Federal Reserve more cautious about cutting interest rates. U.S. Treasury yields also rose after the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis said the U.S. economy grew faster than previously thought in the second quarter, pumped up by an ebb in imports and a pickup in consumer spending. Second-quarter gross domestic product increased at an upwardly revised 3.8% annualized rate versus initial reports of a 3.3% pace. Sign up here. Also, new orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly increased in August, but a decline in shipments of those goods suggested a moderate pace of growth in business spending on equipment this quarter. And the Labor Department said on Thursday that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell by 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended September 20. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 235,000 claims for the latest week. "If you're looking for continued fuel for equities to move higher and broaden out versus what we've seen the last couple of years, you need a continuation of the momentum that's been built over the summer in terms of the Fed easing and easing materially through 2026," said Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Company. Also on Thursday, Fed Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said that, while he supported last week's interest-rate cut because the labor market is cooling, he was not eager to do a lot more policy easing while inflation is above target and moving the wrong way. But Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Fox Business' "Mornings with Maria" program that the U.S. economy is more vulnerable to shocks right now, due to high interest rates based on unfounded inflation concerns among Federal Reserve policymakers. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Thursday that the U.S. central bank likely needs to cut interest rates further, but that it needs to move gradually as it balances risks to its twin goals of full employment and price stability. On Wall Street, indexes marked their third straight day of losses and touched their lowest level in a week, following record high closes on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab ended down 173.96 points, or 0.38%, at 45,947.32, while the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab fell 33.25 points, or 0.50%, to 6,604.72 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab lost 113.16 points, or 0.50%, to finish at 22,384.70. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab fell 6.15 points, or 0.63%, to 973.10, marking its third straight day of losses after scoring a record closing high on Monday. Earlier, the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index closed down 0.66% after touching its lowest level since September 5, with med-tech stocks coming under pressure after news of the U.S. opening new import-related probes, while investors focused on Fed commentary. In government bonds, U.S. Treasury yields rose on Thursday following stronger-than-expected that could strengthen the case for a rates pause from the Fed at its October meeting. "It seems like we're reacting more to the GDP upside surprise," said Molly Brooks, U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities, about the uptick in two- and 10-year Treasury yields. "(But) I think markets are still biased towards seeing a slowdown in data going forward." The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 2.5 basis points to 4.172%, from 4.147% late on Wednesday, while the 30-year bond yield fell 0.8 basis point to 4.7497%. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 6.1 basis points to 3.659%, from 3.598% late on Wednesday. In currencies, the dollar gained against peers including the euro and yen on signs that the U.S. economy grew faster than previous expectations in the second quarter, potentially restraining Fed rate easing. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.66% to 98.48. The euro was down 0.64% at $1.1662, while against the Japanese yen the dollar strengthened 0.58% to 149.76. Against the Swiss franc , the dollar strengthened 0.6% after the Swiss National Bank held interest rates at zero on Thursday in its first pause since late 2023. Oil prices gave up earlier losses to settle near Wednesday's seven-week closing high as the economic data tempered optimism about the rate cut outlook. U.S. crude settled down 0.02%, or 1 cent, at $64.98 a barrel and Brent settled at $69.42 per barrel, up 0.16%, or 11 cents on the day. Safe-haven gold pulled itself back up from early session losses but was still below Wednesday's peak. Spot gold rose 0.38% to $3,749.94 an ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 0.06% to $3,734.20 an ounce. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was down 3.79% at $109,297.18 after hitting its lowest level since early September. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-09-25/

2025-09-25 06:09

August PCE data to show 0.3% m/m rise, per Reuters poll Weekly U.S. jobless claims data due at 1230 GMT Platinum gains 3% Sept 25 (Reuters) - Gold rose on Thursday as geopolitical and economic tensions heightened safe-haven demand, while investors awaited U.S. economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy trajectory. Spot gold was up 0.4% at $3,751.22 per ounce, as of 1155 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,790.82 on Tuesday. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4% to $3,782.30. Sign up here. U.S. President Donald Trump, in a sudden shift, said on Tuesday that he believed Ukraine could retake all its land occupied by Russia. "Investors don't see enough fiscal stability on the U.S. side and overall if you think about the trade war, about tensions with Russia and the Middle East, it's easy to understand why gold is surging," said Carlo Alberto De Casa, external analyst at banking group Swissquote. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Wednesday that she "fully supported" last week's rate cut and expects further reductions, while Fed Chair Powell struck a more cautious tone. Markets broadly expect two more 25-basis-point U.S. rate cuts this year in October and December. FEDWATCH Investors now await the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index report, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, due on Friday. The report is expected to show a month-on-month rise of 0.3% for August and 2.7% year-on-year increase, according to a Reuters poll. "If the economic data comes in as the market has expected, that at least indicates that the market is on the right track towards the Fed easing (rates) providing support for gold," Quantitative Commodity Research analyst Peter Fertig said. Safe-haven bullion tends to thrive in a low-interest rate environment. Weekly U.S. jobless claims data, due later in the day, may provide additional insights into labour market conditions. Among other metals, spot silver rose 2.1% to $44.81 per ounce, platinum gained 2.3% to $1,506.62 and palladium rose 2.1% to $1,235.72. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-steady-investors-await-key-us-economic-data-2025-09-25/

2025-09-25 06:05

BERLIN, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Consumer sentiment in Germany is set to rise slightly heading into October, while remaining in negative territory, as households' brighter view of their income prospects offset the downward trend in recent months, a survey showed on Thursday. The consumer sentiment index, published by the GfK market research institute and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), rose to -22.3 points in October from a slightly upwardly revised -23.5 points in September, beating a forecast of analysts polled by Reuters for a reading of -23.3 points. Sign up here. A rise in income expectations, which leaped by 11 points from the month before to reach 15 points, was the main driver of the increase in overall sentiment, though NIM consumer analyst Rolf Buerkl was sceptical of whether it marked a turnaround. "The geopolitical situation, job concerns and rising inflation fears are likely to stand in the way of a comprehensive recovery at the moment," Buerkl warned. By contrast, economic expectations for the next 12 months continued to fall for a third month in a row, dipping to -1.4 points from 2.7 the month before, while the willingness to buy decreased to -11.6 points, its lowest point since June 2024. NOTE - The survey period was September 4-8, 2025. An indicator reading above zero signals year-on-year growth in private consumption. A value below zero indicates a drop compared with the same period a year earlier. According to GfK, a one-point change in the indicator corresponds to a year-on-year change of 0.1% in private consumption. The "willingness to buy" indicator represents the balance between positive and negative responses to the question: "Do you think now is a good time to buy major items?" The income expectations sub-index reflects expectations about the development of household finances in the coming 12 months. The additional business cycle expectations index reflects respondents' assessment of the general economic situation over the next 12 months. ($1 = 0.8618 euros) https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/income-prospects-boost-german-consumer-sentiment-october-finds-gfk-2025-09-25/

2025-09-25 05:48

MOSCOW, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Russia is expected to start natural gas production at the new Sakhalin-3 project in the Pacific Ocean in 2028 to supply gas to China and for domestic needs, Russian news agencies said on Thursday, citing the local governor. The governor, Valery Limarenko, also said Russia's energy giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM) , opens new tab and the regional authorities are working on a plan to build a refinery in southern Sakhalin to produce jet fuel, diesel and naphtha from gas condensate. Sign up here. Russia has been diversifying its oil and gas exports, a key source for its budget revenues, away from Europe to Asia due to a crisis in relations with the West over the conflict with Ukraine. One of the pipelines from Russia to China, designed to carry gas via the Far Eastern route from Sakhalin, is due to start gas supplies in 2027 and eventually exports 12 billion cubic metres of gas annually, up from 10 bcm planned initially. "We link the industry's prospects to the implementation of the Sakhalin-3 project. Its launch is scheduled for 2028. This gas is expected to be exported to China and also used for the needs of the Far East," the governor was quoted as saying. Sakhalin-3 includes the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye field, which the United States put under sanctions in 2015 for Moscow's role in the crisis in Ukraine. The field, part of the Kirinsky block in the Sea of Okhotsk, also contains oil, while sanctions are related to exploration for or production of, oil or gas in Russian deepwaters. According to Gazprom's data, Yuzhno-Kirinskoye's reserves amount to 711.2 billion cubic metres of natural gas, 111.5 million tonnes of gas condensate and 4.1 million tonnes of oil. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-expects-new-sakhalin-3-gas-project-start-operations-2028-2025-09-25/

2025-09-25 05:38

ANKARA, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Turkish Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan said the bank would maintain its tight monetary policy stance until price stability is achieved, adding that the fall in inflation was continuing across the board. In a presentation in New York on Wednesday about Turkey's monetary policy and inflation outlook, Karahan also said the government's medium-term programme would contribute to the disinflation process, adding the monetary policy stance would be tightened in case of a significant deviation in the inflation outlook from interim targets. Sign up here. In the presentation, which the central bank published on Thursday, Karahan said the bank would determine the policy rate by taking into account realised and expected inflation, and its underlying trend. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkish-central-bank-governor-says-will-keep-tight-monetary-policy-stance-2025-09-25/

2025-09-25 05:27

US GDP data stronger than expected Dollar index rises to two-week high Euro drops to two-week low against dollar Swiss franc falls after SNB leaves rates unchanged NEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - The dollar strengthened against major peers including the euro and yen on Thursday following U.S. economic data, which would likely restrain the future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Commerce Department reported that U.S. gross domestic product rose by an upwardly revised rate of 3.8% from April through June, higher than 3.3% initially reported. Economists polled by Reuters did not expect the rate to be revised. Sign up here. The dollar strengthened 0.58% to 149.77 against the Japanese yen , rising to its highest level since August 1. The euro hit a more than two-week low against the dollar, last trading down 0.66% at $1.1659. "I think everyone seems to have a bit of dollar shorts, and at least anecdotally, it added up to more than what the market thought," said Steve Englander, head of Global G10 FX Research and North America Macro Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank NY Branch. "A year from now, our forecast for where interest rates are going to be is above the market because we think and recent data is showing that there's this real slip between the labor market softness and GDP and output numbers, which are in general bigger." The dollar index , measuring the U.S. currency against six peers, rose 0.68% to 98.50, hitting a two-week high. The dollar has been slightly higher since the Fed lowered interest rates last week, as expected. Traders are anticipating at least two rate cuts in this year's remaining two Fed meetings, although comments from policymakers including Chair Jerome Powell indicate a lot will depend on upcoming economic data. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab, Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab and Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell. U.S Treasury yields rose across the board. For benchmark U.S. 10-year notes , the yield rose 2.5 basis points to 4.172%. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, rose 6.3 basis points to 3.661% "Genuinely, there's an issue for the Fed about how fast you want to cut. Normally, when the labor market is this weak you would say it's all demand," Englander said. "And if demand is faltering, it calls for a rate cut. In this case, they have to keep in mind the possibility that there's a positive supply shock, which would mean that they should be careful about cutting." More Fed officials continued commenting on Thursday about last week's decision to cut rates. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid said the cut was needed to help ensure that the job market remains in a good place. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he was not eager to do a lot more policy easing while inflation is above target and moving the wrong way. Stephen Miran, the Fed's newest policymaker, continued on to press for sharper U.S. interest-rate cuts to prevent labor market collapse. The dollar extended gains against the Swiss franc after the U.S. GDP news and as the Swiss National Bank kept key interest rates at zero, as expected. The SNB also warned that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs had dimmed the Swiss economic outlook going into 2026. The greenback hit a two-week high against the Swiss franc , strengthening 0.60% to 0.8. "Extraordinarily bearish events have taken place for the dollar over the past few months, yet the greenback has exhibited remarkable resilience. And this is increasingly a hotly debated topic among investors," Barclays analysts wrote in an investor note. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-stays-strong-fed-rate-cut-wagers-wobble-data-focus-2025-09-25/