2025-09-23 10:38

LONDON, Sept 23 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Amanda Cooper, Editor, Markets Breaking News, Europe Sign up here. Markets are digesting mixed signals this morning: Wall Street cooled after hitting record highs, Asia is riding an AI-driven surge, and gold has smashed through $3,750 an ounce, as investors hedge against uncertainty. Meanwhile, the Fed’s messaging remains split ahead of Powell’s remarks, keeping rate-cut bets alive, but looking more fragile. * The S&P 500 and Nasdaq paused after hitting record highs, with the Dow down 0.21%, S&P 500 off 0.02%, and Nasdaq up 0.11%. Apple surged 2.4% on strong iPhone 17 demand, while Tesla and Nvidia extended gains. But Trump’s proposed $100,000 H-1B visa fee rattled tech and banks that rely on foreign talent. Shares in Tylenol-maker Kenvue look set to recover some of Monday's losses on the back of the Trump administration's claim that use of the painkiller by pregnant women is linked to autism in children. * Asian markets extended gains as AI optimism drove tech stocks higher. Nvidia pledged a $100 billion OpenAI investment, fueling momentum. Gold hit a fresh record above $3,750 an ounce, up nearly 9% this month, as investors hedge against uncertainty. Japan’s Nikkei was shut for a holiday but remains up 6.5% in September; Taiwan and Korea also posted strong monthly gains. * Markets still price a 90% chance of an October rate cut, but Fed speakers urged caution. Yields climbed, with the 10-year at 4.15%. The dollar index hovered near 97.33, while the euro held at $1.18 and yen at 147.77. Oil eased, with Brent crude futures at $66.24 and WTI at $61.98. Gold’s rally contrasts with hawkish Fed remarks as Powell prepares to speak later today. Today's Market Minute * Nvidia (NVDA.O) will invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI and supply it with data center chips, the companies said on Monday, marking a tie-up between two of the highest-profile players in the global artificial intelligence race. * Disney (DIS.N) said on Monday it would return comedian Jimmy Kimmel to late-night television on Tuesday, six days after his show was threatened with a regulatory probe and suspended over comments he made about conservative activist Charlie Kirk's assassination. , opens new tab * The United States is considering imposing sanctions as soon as this week against the entire International Criminal Court, putting the court's day-to-day operations in jeopardy in retaliation for investigations of suspected Israeli war crimes. , opens new tab * U.S. pension funds and households have never held more equities as a share of their overall assets, by some measures, raising questions about whether the long-term shift towards stocks has run its course or whether investors have truly undergone a paradigm shift. Read the latest from ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever. * Asia dominates the global thermal coal market, but, writes ROI columnist Clyde Russell, the future is looking increasingly split between robust domestic markets in the three heavyweights of China, India and Indonesia and a gradually fading seaborne market. Chart of the day Gold has hit yet another record high, bringing gains for this year to nearly 45%, set for its largest annual rally since 1979. Bitcoin has been described as "digital gold" by its fans and last year, its burst above $100,000 looked almost certain to consolidate its reputation as modern-day bullion. That's not been the case so far this year, however. Even with all the fanfare in Washington DC around crypto, bitcoin is only up 20%, meaning gold, once called a "barbarous relic" by economist John Maynard Keynes, is suddenly looking like a sparklier option. Today's events to watch * U.S. PMI surveys (9:45 AM EDT) * Fed Chair Powell speaks on economic outlook (12:35 PM EDT) * UN General Assembly meetings Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-09-23/

2025-09-23 09:17

Bessent, Trump to speak with Argentina's Milei on Tuesday Exchange Stabilization Fund has about $30 bln in liquid assets Treasury fund backed Fed crisis facilities in 2008, 2020, 2023 ESF's biggest foreign exchange intervention was Mexico in 1994 WASHINGTON, Sept 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's pledge of "large and forceful" actions , opens new tab to stabilize Argentina's wobbling currency by using a 91-year-old U.S. crisis fund could help the peso find its footing, at least for a while. Bessent's backstop for Argentina with Treasury's occasionally used $219.5 billion Exchange Stabilization Fund sent the peso and other Argentine assets soaring after major losses last week. But he said decisions on any U.S. intervention would come after he and President Donald Trump meet with Argentine President Javier Milei in New York on Tuesday. Sign up here. "U.S. support for Argentina will provide a short-term boost both to the peso and the government’s standing in the midterm elections," said Martin Muehleisen, a former International Monetary Fund strategy chief who is now a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. Muehleisen said any conditions Treasury adds to a loan or intervention could compound an already complicated debt situation for Argentina. Such a loan from Washington might also push other creditors such as China back in the repayment line, experts say. Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund is a powerful tool that has helped ease numerous crises, backing Federal Reserve lending facilities during the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. It was also deployed to ease financial crises in Mexico and Brazil in the 1990s and Uruguay in 2002. It was created in 1934 to stabilize the dollar's value during the Great Depression after a reduction in the greenback's gold weighting. With authorization from the Treasury secretary, it can be used for the purchase or sale of foreign currency, issuing loans or credit to foreign governments or entities or acquiring and using Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), the IMF's reserve asset. Bessent’s pledge to support Milei partly reflects Trump’s affinity for the right wing leader, who attended Trump’s inauguration in January and who has embarked on a range of private sector reforms to try to revive Argentina’s economy. Washington's support also contrasts sharply with the Trump administration’s treatment of Brazil's leftist government over its prosecution of former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro. BACKSTOP OF CHOICE As of July 31, the ESF had total assets of $219.5 billion, but the readily available liquid assets are far lower since $173.7 billion of the total is in IMF SDRs. Brad Setser, a trade and currency expert with the Council on Foreign Relations, estimates that the readily available firepower in the ESF is just under $30 billion, comprising $21.9 billion in Treasury securities, $1.6 billion in cash and $5.7 billion in foreign currency holdings. That's likely more than enough to stem a crisis for a country like Argentina, which is not a systemically critical part of the global financial system. The Treasury last pledged ESF funds in March 2023 - $25 billion - to back a new Fed bank emergency liquidity program after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed. The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program shut down after a year. As the COVID-19 pandemic erupted in March 2020, the Treasury pledged $10 billion in ESF capital to back a new Fed commercial paper funding facility to help businesses manage their liquidity during the sharp economic downturn. In September 2008, the Treasury pledged $50 billion from the ESF to backstop money market mutual funds that were seeing unprecedented withdrawals. The Treasury also has occasionally dipped into the ESF during U.S. debt ceiling crises to avoid breaching the limit. FOREIGN INTERVENTIONS The ESF was last used to intervene in foreign currencies in 2011, when Treasury joined a coordinated action by G7 countries to stem the rise of Japan's yen after a deadly earthquake. The fund's biggest foreign currency intervention took place after Mexico's 1994 peso crisis when President Bill Clinton authorized $20 billion from the ESF to guarantee loans to Mexico. The loans were also backed by future Pemex oil revenues and were repaid early in 1997. Similar actions were taken in 1998 on behalf of Brazil and in 2002 for Uruguay, which received a $1.4 billion bridge loan that was repaid with IMF and World Bank funds. USES FOR ARGENTINA Demand for such bridge loans has faded in recent years due to improvements in IMF and World Bank processes and programs, analysts said, but the Treasury could use the ESF to set up a stabilization credit facility for Argentina, or intervene directly in markets to buy up pesos or dollar debt. Although Bessent said that a central bank swap line is among tools that could be deployed, the Treasury does not have direct control over swap lines. That remains the purview of the Federal Reserve and its swap lines have been designed more to avoid global contagion and blow-back from foreign crises into the U.S. economy. Bessent on Monday said he did not expect contagion from the Argentine crisis. A Fed spokesperson declined to comment on the possibility of a U.S.-Argentina swap line. Bessent's offer of support without conditions such as fixing the problem of an over-valued peso may be "a way of just financing capital flight for little purpose," said Mark Sobel, a former U.S. Treasury and IMF official who is now U.S. chairman of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum think tank. Sobel added that it will be a challenge to overcome investors' long-embedded urge to flee Argentina during a crisis. "Markets have had over 100 years of Argentine over-borrowing, hyperinflation and serial defaults, and so when Argentina hits the skids, investors remember that," he said. "And they're not going to go, 'Milei is different.'" https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-treasurys-support-argentina-gives-peso-milei-friendly-leg-up-now-2025-09-23/

2025-09-23 09:09

UK business activity slows, PMI drops to 51.0 from 53.5 Sterling falls 0.2% after survey, remains up 8% against dollar BBVA strategists see potential for sterling weakness LONDON, Sept 23 (Reuters) - The pound sagged on Tuesday after a survey showed British business activity slowed in early September, as companies reported a loss of momentum and confidence given the rising risk of tax increases later this year. S&P Global's preliminary UK Composite Purchasing Managers' Index, covering the services and manufacturing sectors, slowed to 51.0 in September from 53.5 in August, not far above the 50.0 level that separates growth from contraction. Sign up here. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a more modest fall to 53.0 in Tuesday's survey. Sterling fell as much as 0.2% on the day to a session low of $1.34885 immediately after the survey, before tracking back to around $1.35. It is still up around 8% against the dollar this year and nearly 5.5% against the euro , which on Tuesday traded 0.13% higher at 87.41 pence. Strategists at BBVA noted the pound is struggling to gain much traction, even with upbeat investor sentiment and UK equities near record highs. "We continue to see scope for sterling weakness: with markets pricing in just 7 basis points of BoE cuts by year-end, euro/sterling has upside potential. We think a BoE rate cut in the next two meetings is likely," they said. Part of the pound's relative resilience against the dollar in the face of deteriorating UK data is the expectation that the Bank of England will take longer to lower rates than the Fed, given British inflation is running at almost 4%, nearly twice the central bank's target. Currency volatility generally was muted ahead of planned remarks later from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell is expected to reiterate the need for caution in cutting rates, a view a number of Fed officials expressed on Monday, in contrast to new Fed Governor Stephen Miran - a pick by President Donald Trump for his views on the need for lower rates - who said the central bank is misreading how tightly it has set monetary policy and risks undermining the labour market. Back in the UK, finance minister Rachel Reeves is under growing pressure to keep Britain's finances in check, which could result in new tax rises in her budget in November. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-dips-after-gloomy-pmi-surveys-2025-09-23/

2025-09-23 07:57

Sept 23 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N) , opens new tab has started production at new facilities at its Singapore oil refinery complex to produce base stocks from residue fuel, it said on Tuesday, boosting the plant's intake of high-sulphur crude. The technology combines processes to convert fuel oil and other bottom-of-the-barrel crude products into higher-value lube base stocks and distillates, Exxon said in a statement. Sign up here. The new facilities expand its Group-II base stocks production capacity by 20,000 barrels per day, Exxon added. Crude imports at Exxon's Singapore refinery hit an all-time high of 541,000 barrels per day in August, according to data from analytics firm Kpler since 2016, driving high-sulphur crude demand in the region. The refinery has halted low-sulphur U.S. crude imports since April, switching to buying only high-sulphur oil, the data showed. In August, the United Arab Emirates was the top supplier with Murban and Upper Zakum crude while Qatar was second, with al-Shaheen oil, according to the data. The refinery also imported in August Arab Light crude from Saudi Arabia for the first time since November 2023, according to the data. Other suppliers include Oman and Iraq. Exxon's Jurong Island crude processing capacity is 592,000 barrels per day. The base stocks, designed for commercial vehicles and industrial applications, are used in engine oils, gear oils, marine oils, and greases. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxon-mobil-begins-production-new-base-stock-facilities-singapore-2025-09-23/

2025-09-23 07:56

BEIJING, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Senior Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang met political and business leaders from the U.S. Midwest, the commerce ministry said on Tuesday, with analysts speculating the region's food exports will be key to any U.S.-China trade deal. U.S.-China commercial ties had featured in Monday's talks, the ministry said in a statement, without giving details. Sign up here. China, the world's biggest buyer of soybeans, has yet to buy any U.S. soybean cargoes from its autumn harvest, traders have said, the bulk of which come from the Midwest. Trade analysts anticipate U.S. President Donald Trump will want China to commit to buying more American agricultural goods and Boeing (BA.N) , opens new tab jet planes, among other items, as part of any deal to end the two largest economies' current tariff war. But Chicago soybean futures, already near 5-year lows, fell further on Friday, after neither side reported any update on agriculture, following Trump's telephone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping. On Tuesday, U.S. Ambassador to China David Purdue told reporters he thought negotiations over China buying more Boeing aircraft had entered their last days or weeks. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/china-trade-envoy-meets-us-midwest-delegation-agriculture-exports-loom-large-2025-09-23/

2025-09-23 07:47

US ruling offers temporary relieve for Orsted Risk of credit downgrade reduced, analyst say Project was 80% complete at time of work-stop order Orsted incurs weekly cost of $15.7 million for project COPENHAGEN, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Orsted (ORSTED.CO) , opens new tab shares rose on Tuesday after a U.S. federal judge ruled it could resume work on an almost completed offshore wind project in the United States, delivering a win for an industry under sustained attack from President Donald Trump. But the victory may prove short-lived, as analysts warn the White House could appeal the decision or take further regulatory action against other projects as part of the administration's broader campaign to dismantle the renewable energy sector. Sign up here. Orsted has been losing $2 million a day since the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management issued its work-stop order , opens new tab for its Revolution Wind project on August 22. "While the judge's injunction should provide near-term relief to Orsted shares, this does not protect Revolution from the outcome of the ongoing legal case, nor possible further actions," Citi said in a note to clients on Tuesday. RISK OF CREDIT DOWNGRADE REDUCED Attorneys for the Trump administration had argued that the project failed to comply with the conditions of its permit related to conflicts with national security and scientific ocean surveys. Revolution Wind disputed those claims. Monday's legal ruling, which is temporary, blocks the enforcement of the stop-work order while the case remains under review. The Danish company, already grappling with inflation, higher interest rates, and supply chain delays, is in the process of completing a $9.4 billion capital injection from shareholders to stave off a potential credit rating downgrade. The ruling reduces the immediate risk of a downgrade, according to brokerage Sydbank, though they cautioned of "high political risk in the U.S. market." Orsted shares were up 6.45% at 118 Danish crowns by 0926 GMT, after rising as much as 12% at market open. WORK TO RESUME AS SOON AS POSSIBLE The Revolution Wind project, located 15 miles (24.14 km) off the coast of Rhode Island, was 80% complete with all offshore foundations in place and 45 of 65 wind turbines installed when Orsted received the work-stop order. Orsted said it would resume work "as soon as possible", but declined to elaborate further. The Danish company and joint venture partner Skyborn Renewables have already spent or committed about $5 billion to the project, according to U.S. court filings by the companies. They would incur over $1 billion in breakaway costs if it were to be cancelled. Orsted CEO Rasmus Errboe has warned that costs could rise significantly by October if specialised vessels contracted to install the remaining substation and cables are no longer available within their contracted period and Orsted is forced to re-enter the market at potentially much higher rates. ($1 = 6.3333 Danish crowns) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/orsted-shares-jump-12-after-us-judge-lifts-trump-ban-revolution-wind-project-2025-09-23/